The dynamics of party preference change in Britain, 1991-1996

Political Studies

Volumn 47, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 219-239

  Sanders, David ^a   Brynin, Malcolm ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0033148076     PISSN: 00323217     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1467-9248.00197     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. 1 See Anthony King et al., New Labour Triumphs: Britain at the Polls (Chatham NJ, Chatham House, 1997); David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh, The British General Election of 1997 (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1997); Special Issue of Parliamentary Affairs: Britain Votes, 1997, 50 (October 1997), 509-758; David Sanders, 'Conservative Incompetence, Labour Responsibility and the Feelgood Factor: Why the Economy Failed to Save the Conservatives in 1997'. Paper prepared for the Political Studies Association Specialist Conference on Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, University of Essex, 26-28 September 1997.
2. See Anthony King et al., New Labour Triumphs: Britain at the Polls (Chatham NJ, Chatham House, 1997); David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh, The British General Election of 1997 (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1997); Special Issue of Parliamentary Affairs: Britain Votes, 1997, 50 (October 1997), 509-758; David Sanders, 'Conservative Incompetence, Labour Responsibility and the Feelgood Factor: Why the Economy Failed to Save the Conservatives in 1997'. Paper prepared for the Political Studies Association Specialist Conference on Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, University of Essex, 26-28 September 1997.
3. See Anthony King et al., New Labour Triumphs: Britain at the Polls (Chatham NJ, Chatham House, 1997); David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh, The British General Election of 1997 (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1997); Special Issue of Parliamentary Affairs: Britain Votes, 1997, 50 (October 1997), 509-758; David Sanders, 'Conservative Incompetence, Labour Responsibility and the Feelgood Factor: Why the Economy Failed to Save the Conservatives in 1997'. Paper prepared for the Political Studies Association Specialist Conference on Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, University of Essex, 26-28 September 1997.
4. See Anthony King et al., New Labour Triumphs: Britain at the Polls (Chatham NJ, Chatham House, 1997); David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh, The British General Election of 1997 (Basingstoke, Macmillan, 1997); Special Issue of Parliamentary Affairs: Britain Votes, 1997, 50 (October 1997), 509-758; David Sanders, 'Conservative Incompetence, Labour Responsibility and the Feelgood Factor: Why the Economy Failed to Save the Conservatives in 1997'. Paper prepared for the Political Studies Association Specialist Conference on Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, University of Essex, 26-28 September 1997.
5. See, for example, the data reported in David Sanders, 'Economic performance, management competence and the outcome of the next general election', Political Studies, 44 (1996), 201-31.
6. 3 See David Butler and Donald Stokes, Political Change in Britain (London, Macmillan, 1969); Bo Sarlvik and Ivor Crewe, Decade of Dealignment: the Conservative Victory of 1979 and Electoral Trends in the 1970s (London, Cambridge University Press, 1983); Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell and John Curtice, Understanding Political Change (London, Pergamon, 1991); Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell and John Curtice (eds), Labour's Last Chance? The 1992 Election and Beyond (Aldershot, Dartmouth, 1994).
7. See David Butler and Donald Stokes, Political Change in Britain (London, Macmillan, 1969); Bo Sarlvik and Ivor Crewe, Decade of Dealignment: the Conservative Victory of 1979 and Electoral Trends in the 1970s (London, Cambridge University Press, 1983); Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell and John Curtice, Understanding Political Change (London, Pergamon, 1991); Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell and John Curtice (eds), Labour's Last Chance? The 1992 Election and Beyond (Aldershot, Dartmouth, 1994).
8. See David Butler and Donald Stokes, Political Change in Britain (London, Macmillan, 1969); Bo Sarlvik and Ivor Crewe, Decade of Dealignment: the Conservative Victory of 1979 and Electoral Trends in the 1970s (London, Cambridge University Press, 1983); Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell and John Curtice, Understanding Political Change (London, Pergamon, 1991); Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell and John Curtice (eds), Labour's Last Chance? The 1992 Election and Beyond (Aldershot, Dartmouth, 1994).
9. See David Butler and Donald Stokes, Political Change in Britain (London, Macmillan, 1969); Bo Sarlvik and Ivor Crewe, Decade of Dealignment: the Conservative Victory of 1979 and Electoral Trends in the 1970s (London, Cambridge University Press, 1983); Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell and John Curtice, Understanding Political Change (London, Pergamon, 1991); Anthony Heath, Roger Jowell and John Curtice (eds), Labour's Last Chance? The 1992 Election and Beyond (Aldershot, Dartmouth, 1994).
10. Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York, Harper Row, 1957).
11. Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Economic and Elections: the Major Western Democracies (Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press, 1981).
12. 6 For the seminal discussion of these issues see Morris Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1981). See also D. Kinder and D. R. Kiewiet, 'Sociotropic politics: the American case', British Journal of Political Science, 25 (1995), 145-70.
13. For the seminal discussion of these issues see Morris Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1981). See also D. Kinder and D. R. Kiewiet, 'Sociotropic politics: the American case', British Journal of Political Science, 25 (1995), 145-70.
14. 7 Simon Price and David Sanders, 'Modeling government popularity in post-war Britain: a methodological example', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 317-34; David Sanders, 'Forecasting political preferences and election outcomes in the UK: experiences, problems and prospects for the next general election', Electoral Studies, 14 (1995), 251-72; Harold Clarke, Marianne C. Stewart and Paul Whiteley, 'Tory trends: party identification and the dynamics of Conservative support since 1992', British Journal of Political Science, 27 (1997), 299-331.
15. Simon Price and David Sanders, 'Modeling government popularity in post-war Britain: a methodological example', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 317-34; David Sanders, 'Forecasting political preferences and election outcomes in the UK: experiences, problems and prospects for the next general election', Electoral Studies, 14 (1995), 251-72; Harold Clarke, Marianne C. Stewart and Paul Whiteley, 'Tory trends: party identification and the dynamics of Conservative support since 1992', British Journal of Political Science, 27 (1997), 299-331.
16. Simon Price and David Sanders, 'Modeling government popularity in post-war Britain: a methodological example', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 317-34; David Sanders, 'Forecasting political preferences and election outcomes in the UK: experiences, problems and prospects for the next general election', Electoral Studies, 14 (1995), 251-72; Harold Clarke, Marianne C. Stewart and Paul Whiteley, 'Tory trends: party identification and the dynamics of Conservative support since 1992', British Journal of Political Science, 27 (1997), 299-331.
17. Anthony Heath, Bridget Taylor and Peter Lynn, 'Evidence from the British Election Study Panel Survey, 1992-1997'. Paper delivered to the Royal Statistical Society, London, 17 March 1998.
18. 'Looking ahead, how do you think you yourself will be financially a year from now? Will you be *better off than you are now; *worse off than you are now; *or about the same*? *don't know'.
19. 'Would you say that you yourself are better off, worse off, or about the same financially than you were a year ago?'
20. 'How well would you say that you yourself are managing financially these days? Are you *living comfortably; *doing alright; *just about getting by; *finding it quite difficult to get along; *finding it very difficult to get along? *don't know'.
21. See, for example, Butler and Stokes, Political Change in Britain.
22. The ideological 'centre' was defined to include all respondents who scored between 2.50 and 3.49 inclusive on the composite left-right (1-5) ideological scale.
23. The ideological 'left' was defined to include all respondents who scored 2 or less on the composite left-right (1-5) ideological scale.