A study of policy formation in complex organizations: Emulating group decision-making with a simple artificial intelligence and a system model of corporate operations

Journal of Business Research

Volumn 45, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 157-171

  Hall, R I ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MANITOBA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0033147930     PISSN: 01482963     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0148-2963(97)00234-8     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Ashby, W. R.: An Introduction to Cybernetics, Wiley, New York. 1956.
2. Axelrod, R.: The Structure of Decision: The Cognitive Maps of Policy Elites, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. 1976.
3. Beer, S.: Diagnosing the System for Organizations, Wiley, Chichester, UK. 1985.
4. Bossel, H.: Concepts and Tools for Computer Assisted Policy Analysis, Birkhauser, Basel, Switzerland. 1977.
5. Bromiley, P.: Corporate Capital Investment: A Behavioral Approach, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 1986.
6. Checkland, Peter B.: Systems Thinking, Systems Practice, Wiley, Chichester, UK. 1981.
7. Checkland, Peter B.: Achieving desirable and feasible change: An application of soft systems methodology. Journal of the Operational Research Society 36 (1985): 821-831.
8. COPE: COPE Brochure, Management Science Dept. Strathclyde Business School, Livingstone Tower, 26 Richmond St., Glasgow GI 1HX, UK. 1992.
9. Coser, L. A.: The termination of conflict, in The Making of Decisions, W. J. Gore and J. W. Dyson, eds., Free Press, Glencoe, IL. 1964.
10. Coyle, R. G.: System Dynamics Modeling: A Practical Approach, Chapman & Hall, London. 1996.
11. Culligan, M. J.: The Curtis-Culligan Story, Crown Publishers, New York. 1970.
12. Cyert, R. M., and March, J. G.: A Behavioral Theory of the Firm, 2nd Ed., Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. 1992.
13. De Geus, A. P.: Planning as learning. Harvard Business Review 88 (March-April 1988): 70-74.
14. Doman, A., Glucksman, M., Mass N., and Sasportes, M.: The dynamics of managing life insurance companies. System Dynamics Review 11 (1995): 219-232.
15. Eden, C., and Huxham, C.: Action-oriented management. Journal of the Operational Research Society 39 (1988): 889-899.
16. Eden, C.: Strategy development as a social process. Journal of Management Studies 29 (1990): 799-811.
17. Einhorn, H. J., and Hogarth, R. M.: Confidence in judgment: Persistence of the illusion of validity. Psychological Review 85 (1978): 395-416.
18. Forrester, J. W.: Industrial Dynamics, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, MA. 1961.
19. Forrester, J. W.: Principles of Systems, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, MA. 1969.
20. Forrester, J. W.: Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technology Review 3 (1970): 52-68.
21. Friedrichs, O.: Decline and Fall, Harper and Row, New York. 1970.
22. Hall, R. I.: A system pathology of an organization: The rise and fall of the old saturday evening post. Administrative Science Quarterly 21 (1976): 185-211.
23. Hall, R. I.: Simple techniques for constructing explanatory models of complex systems for policy analysis. Dynamica 3 (1978): 101-144.
24. Hall, R. I., and Menzies, W.: A corporate system model of a sports club: Using simulation as an aid to policy making in a crisis. Management Science 29 (1983): 52-64. Reproduced in Dyson, R. G., Ed.: Strategic Planning: Models and Analytical Methods, Wiley, Chichester, UK. 1990.
25. Hall, R. I., and Menzies, W.: A corporate system model of a sports club: Using simulation as an aid to policy making in a crisis.Management Science 29 (1983): 52-64. Reproduced in Dyson, R. G., Ed.: Strategic Planning: Models and Analytical Methods, Wiley, Chichester, UK. 1990.
26. Hall, R. I.: The natural logic of management policy making: Its implications for the survival of an organization. Management Science 30 (1984): 905-927.
27. Hall, R. I.: A training game and behavioral decision-making research tool: An alternative use of system dynamics simulation, in Computer-Based Management of Complex Systems, P. M. Milling, and E. O. K. Zahn, eds., Springer-Verlag, Berlin. 1989. pp. 221-228.
28. Hall, R. I.: Building an artificial intelligence model of management policy making: A tool for exploring organizational issues, in Organization, Management and Expert Systems: Models of Automated Reasoning, M. Marsuch, ed., de Gruyter, Berlin. 1990a. pp. 103-121.
29. Hall, R. I.: Organizational adapting and the risk-return paradox: Alternative explanations based on a simulated industry. Paper presented to National Meeting of the Academy of Management, San Francisco and available from the author. 1990b.
30. Hall, R. I.: A study of the effects of administrative logic on policy formation. Working paper presented to the International Workshop on Rationality and Organization, European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management, Brussels, available from the author. 1993.
31. Hall, R. I.: Aitchison, P., and Kocay, W. L.: Causal policy maps of managers: Formal methods for eliciting and analysis. System Dynamics Review 10 (1994): 337-360.
32. High performance systems, Stella II and Ithink Technical Documentation. Available from High Performance Systems, Inc., 45 Lyme Rd., Hanover, NH 03755, USA. 1994.
33. Hofstede, G. H.: The Game of Budget Control, Tavistock Publications, London, UK. 1968.
34. Huff, A. S.: Mapping Strategic Thought, Wiley, Somerset, NJ. 1990.
35. Hurst, D. K.: Crisis and Renewal: Managing the Challenge of Organizational Change, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA. 1995.
36. Jackson, M. C.: Systems Methodology for the Management Sciences, Plenum, New York. 1991.
37. Jacobsen, C., and Bronson, R.: Computer simulations and empirical testing of sociological theory, in Sociological Methods and Research, Vol. 23. Sage, Beverly Hills, CA. 1995. pp. 479-506.
38. Jaques, E., and Cason, K.: Human Capability, Cason Hall & Co., Falls Church, VA. 1994.
39. Kahneman, D.S., and Tversky, A.: Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, University Press, Cambridge, UK. 1982.
40. Lyneis, J. M.: Corporate Planning and Policy Design: A System Dynamics Approach, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, MA. 1980.
41. Mintzberg, H.: The Nature of Managerial Work, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. 1980.
42. Mohr, E. B.: Explaining Organizational Behavior, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, CA. 1982.
43. Morecroft, J. D. W., and van der Heijden, K. A. J. M.: Modelling the oil producers-capturing oil industry knowledge in a behavioral model. European Journal of Operational Research 59 (1992): 102-122.
44. Newell, A., and Simon, H. A.: Computer simulation of human thinking. Science 134 (1966): 2011-2017.
45. Pettigrew, A. M.: The Politics of Organizational Decision Making, Tavistock, London, UK. 1973.
46. Prigogine, I., and Stengers, I.: Order out of Chaos, Heinemann, London, UK. 1986.
47. Roberts, F. S.: Strategy for the energy crisis: The case for commuter transport policy, in R. Axelrod, ed., op. cit., 1976, pp. 414-426.
48. Roos, L. L., and Hall, R. I.: Influence diagrams and organizational power. Administrative Science Quarterly 25 (1980): 57-71.
49. Senge, P. M: The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Doubleday, New York. 1990.
50. Schank, R. C., and Colby, K. M.: Computer Models of Thought and Language, W. H. Freeman, San Francisco, CA. 1973.
51. Starbuck, W. H.: Keeping a butterfly and an elephant in a house of cards: The elements of exceptional success. Journal of Management Studies 30 (1993): 886-921.
52. Sterman, J.: Dynamic decision making in organizations: Claims management in the insurance industry. Paper presented at the TIMS/ORSA/CORS Joint Meeting. Vancouver. 1989.
53. Sterman, J., Repenning, J. N., and Kofman, F.: Unanticipated side effects of successful quality programs: Exploring a paradox of organizational improvement. Management Science (in press).
54. Tarjan, R.: Depth-first search and linear graph algorithms. SIAM Journal of Computing 1 (1972): 146-160.
55. Weick, K. E.: The Social Psychology of Organizing, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. 1969.
56. Wolstenholme, E. F.: System Enquiry: A System Dynamics Approach, Wiley, London, UK. 1990.