Multidecadal simulations of Australian rainfall variability: The role of SSTs

Journal of Climate

Volumn 12, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 357-379

  Frederiksen, Carsten S ^a,b   Rowell, David P ^c   Balgovind, Ramesh C ^a   Folland, Chris K ^c  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY RESEARCH CENTRE   (Australia)

^b MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; STATISTICAL METHODS;

RAINFALL VARIABILITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST);

RAIN;

ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; CLIMATE MODELING; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; TEMPORAL VARIATION;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 0033079627     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0357:MSOARV>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. Anthes, R. A., 1977: A cumulus parameterization scheme utilizing a one-dimensional model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 270-286.
2. Cubasch, U., 1985: The mean response of the ECMWF global model to the composite El Niño anomaly in extended range prediction experiments. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models, J. C. J Nihoul, Ed., Elsevier, 329-344.
3. Cullen, M. I. P., 1993: The Unified Forecast/Climate Model. Meteor. Mag., 122, 81-94.
4. Davis, E. R., 1976: Predictability of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean. J. Phys. Oceangr., 6, 249-266.
5. Drosdowsky, W., 1993a: An analysis of Australian seasonal rainfall anomalies: 1950-87. I: Spatial patterns. Int. J. Climatol., 13, 1-30.
6. _, 1993b: An analysis of Australian seasonal rainfall anomalies: 1950-87. II: Temporal variability and teleconnection patterns. Int. J. Climatol., 13, 111-149.
7. _, and M. Williams, 1991: The Southern Oscillation in the Australian region. Part I: Anomalies at the extremes of the oscillation. J. Climate, 4, 619-638.
8. Fels, S. B., and M. D. Schwarzkopf, 1975: The simplified exchange approximation: A new method for radiative transfer calculations. J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 1475-1488.
9. Folland, C. K., and D. P. Rowell, 1995: Workshop on simulations of the climate of the twentieth century using GISST. Climate Research Tech. Note 56, Hadley Centre, Bracknell, United Kingdom, 111 pp.
10. Frederiksen, C. S., and R. C. Balgovind, 1994: The influence of the Indian Ocean/Indonesian SST Gradient on the Australian winter rainfall and circulation in an atmospheric GCM. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 120, 923-952.
11. _, and J. S. Frederiksen, 1996: A theoretical model of Australian northwest cloudband disturbances and Southern Hemisphere storm tracks: The role of SST anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci. 53, 1410-1432.
12. _, A. Bevan, M. Hoerling, K. Miyakoda, A. Navarra, and M. N. Ward, 1995a: AGCM Intercomparison Diagnostics: Climatologies and ENSO Teleconnections (1951-80). Workshop on Simulations of the Climate of the Twentieth Century Using GISST, C. K. Folland and D. P. Rowell, Eds., Hadley Centre, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, 14-34.
13. _, P. Indusekeran, R. C. Balgovind, D. P. Rowell, and C. K. Folland, 1995b: Simulations of Australian Climate Variability: The role of global SSTs. Proc. AMIP Conf., Monterey, CA, PCMDI, 413-418.
14. _, _, _, and N. Nicholls, 1995c: Multidecadal simulations of global climate trends and variability. Proc. TOGA95 Int. Scientific Conf., Melbourne, Australia, WCRP, 685-689.
15. _, _, _, and _, 1995d: Forcing the BMRC Model with GISST. Workshop on Simulations of the Climate of the Twentieth Century Using GISST, C. K. Folland and D. P. Rowell, Eds., Hadley Centre, 76-77.
16. Gates, W. L., 1992: AMIP: The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 73, 1962-1970.
17. Gregory, D., and P. R. R. Rowntree, 1990: A mass flux convection scheme with representation of cloud ensemble characteristics and stability dependent closure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1483-1506.
18. Hart, T. L., W. Bourke, B. J. McAvaney, B. W. Forgan, and J. L. McGregor, 1990: Atmospheric general circulation simulations with the BMRC global spectral model: The impact of revised physical parameterizations. J. Climate, 3, 436-459.
19. Kuo, H. L., 1974: Further studies of the parameterization of the influence of cumulus convection on large-scale flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1232-1240.
20. Lacis, A. A., and J. E. Hansen, 1974: A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation in the earth's atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 118-133.
21. Louis, J.-F., 1979: A parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmosphere. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 17, 187-202.
22. Manabe, S., and J. L. Holloway, 1975: The seasonal variation of the hydrologic cycle as simulated by a global model of the atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 80, 1617-1649.
23. McAvaney, B. J., and R. A. Colman, 1993: The AMIP Experiment: The BMRC AGCM configuration. BMRC Research Rep. 29, 43 pp.
24. _, J. R. Fraser, T. L. Hart, L. J. Rikus, W. B. Bourke, M. J. Naughton, and P. Mullenmeister, 1991: Cirulation statistics from a non-diurnal seasonal simulation with the BMRC atmospheric GCM: R21L9. BMRC Research Rep. 38, 231 pp.
25. McBride, J. L., and N. Nicholls, 1983: Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1998-2004.
26. Nicholls, N., 1984: Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and north Australian sea-surface temperature. Extended Abstracts, Conf. on Australian Rainfall Variability, Australian Academy of Science, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 71-73.
27. _, 1988: More on early ENSOs: Evidence from Australian documentary sources. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 69, 4-6.
28. _, 1989: Sea surface temperatures and Australian winter rainfall. J. Climate, 2, 965-973.
29. _, and K. K. Wong, 1990: Dependence of rainfall variability on mean rainfall, latitude, and the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 3, 163-170.
30. _, B. Lavery, C. S. Frederiksen, W. Drosdowsky, and S. Torok, 1996: Recent apparent changes in relationships between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall and temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 3357-3360.
31. Palmer, T. N., G. J. Shutts, and R. Swinbank, 1986: Alleviation of a systematic bias in general circulation and numerical weather prediction models through an orographic wave drag parameterization. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 112, 1001-1039.
32. Parker, D. E., P. D. Jones, C. K. Folland, and A. Bevan, 1994: Interdecadal changes of surface temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 99, 14 373-14 399.
33. _, C. K. Folland, A. Bevan, M. N. Ward, M. Jackson, and K. Maskell, 1995: Marine surface data for analysis of climatic fluctuations on interannual to century timescales. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Timescales, D. G. Martinson et al., Eds., National Academy Press, 241-250.
34. Phillips, T. J., 1994: A summary documentation of the AMIP models. PCMDI Rep. 18, University of California, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 343 pp.
35. Pittock, A. B., 1975: Climatic change and the patterns of variation in Australian rainfall. Search, 6, 498-504.
36. _, 1984: On the reality, stability, and usefulness of southern hemisphere teleconnections. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 32, 75-82.
37. Potts, J. M., C. K. Folland, I. T. Jolliffe, and D. Sexton, 1996: Revised "LEPS" scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts. J. Climate, 9, 34-53.
38. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
39. _, and _, 1989: Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 268-284.
40. Rowell, D. P., 1998: Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations. J. Climate, 11, 109-120.
41. _, C. K. Folland, K. Maskell, and M. N. Ward, 1995: Variability of summer rainfall over tropical north Africa (1906-92): Observations and modelling. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 121, 669-704.
42. Shuttleworth, W. J., 1988: Macrohydrology: The new challenge for process hydrology. J. Hydrol., 100, 31-56.
43. Simmonds, I., 1989: The impact of changes to the meridional sea surface temperature gradient to the west of Australia on winter rainfall over the continent. Extended Abstracts, Third Int. Conf. on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, Buenos Aires, Argentina, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 58-61.
44. _, 1990: A modelling study of winter circulation and precipitation anomalies associated with Australian region ocean temperatures. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 38, 151-162.
45. _, and I.N. Smith, 1986: The effect of the prescription of zonally uniform sea surface temperatures in a general circulation model. J. Climatol., 6, 641-659.
46. _, and G. Trigg, 1988: Global circulation and precipitation changes induced by sea surface temperature anomalies to the north of Australia in a general circulation model. Math Comput. Simul., 30, 99-104.
47. _, and A. Rocha, 1991: The association of Australian winter climate with ocean temperatures to the west. J. Climate, 4, 1147-1161.
48. _, M. Dix, P. Rayner, and G. Trigg, 1989: Local and remote response to zonally uniform sea surface temperature in a July general circulation model. Int. J. Climatol., 9, 111-131.
49. Slingo, A., 1985: Handbook of the Meteorological Office 11-layer atmospheric general circulation model. Vol. 1: Model description. United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, United Kingdom, 155 pp.
50. _, and R. C. Wilderspin, 1986: Development of a revised long-wave radiation scheme for an atmospheric general circulation model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 112, 371-386.
51. Slingo, J. M., and Coauthors, 1996: Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject. Climate Dyn., 12, 325-357.
52. Smith, I. N., 1994: A GCM simulation of global climate trends 1950-88. J. Climate, 7, 732-744.
53. _, 1995: A GCM simulation of global climate interannual variability 1950-88. J. Climate, 8, 709-718.
54. Smith, R. N. B., 1990: Subsurface, surface, and boundary layer processes. Unified Model Documentation Paper No. 24, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, United Kingdom, 89 pp.
55. Streten, N. A., 1981: Southern Hemisphere sea surface temperature variability and apparent associations with Australian rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 86, 485-497.
56. _, 1983: Extreme distributions of Australian annual rainfall in relation to sea surface temperature. J. Climatol., 3, 143-153.
57. Tiedtke, M., 1984: The sensitivity of the time mean large-scale flow to cumulus convection in the ECMWF model. Report of the Workshop on Convection in Large Scale Numerical Models, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 297-316.
58. Voice, M. E., and B. G. Hunt, 1984: A study of the dynamics of drought initiation using a global general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 89, 9504-9520.
59. Warrilow, D. A., A. B. Sangster, and A. Slingo, 1986: Modelling of Land Surface Processes and Their Influence on European Climate. United Kingdom Meteorological Office, 92 pp.
60. Whetton, P. H., 1988: A synoptic climatological analysis of rainfall variability in southeastern Australia. J. Climatol., 8, 155-177.
61. _, 1990a: Relationships between monthly anomalies of sea-surface temperature and mean sea level pressure in the Australian region. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 38, 17-30.
62. _, 1990b: Relationships between monthly anomalies of Australian region sea-surface temperature and Victorian rainfall. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 38, 31-41.
63. Willmott, C. J., C. M. Rowe, and Y. Mintz, 1985: A global archive of land cover and soils data for use in general circulation climate models. J. Climatol., 5, 119-143.
64. Wilson, C. A., and R. Swinbank, 1989: Gravity wave drag. Unified Model Documentation Paper No. 22, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, United Kingdom, 83 pp.
65. Wright, W. J., 1988a: The low-latitude influence on winter rainfall in Victoria, south-eastern Australia. I. Climatological aspects. J. Climatol., 8, 437-462.
66. _, 1988b: The low-latitude influence on winter rainfall in Victoria, south-eastern Australia. I. Relationships with the SOI and Australian region circulation. J. Climatol., 8, 547-576.