The regime concept and natural trends in the production of Pacific salmon

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

Volumn 56, Issue 3, 1999, Pages 516-526

  Beamish, R J ^a   Noakes, D J ^a   McFarlane, G A ^a   Klyashtorin, L ^b   Ivanov, V V ^c   Kurashov, V ^c  

^a PACIFIC BIOLOGICAL STATION   (Canada)

^b RUSSIAN FEDERAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF FISHERIES AND OCEANOGRAPHY   (Russian Federation)

^c ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Russian Federation)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTION; CLIMATE EFFECT; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; SALMONID FISHERY; TREND ANALYSIS;

PACIFIC OCEAN;

ANIMALIA; ONCORHYNCHUS; SALMONIDAE; SALMONIFORMES;

EID: 0032992130     PISSN: 0706652X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/f98-200     Document Type: Review

References (85)

1. Adkinson, M.D., Peterman, R.M., Lapointe, M.F., Gillis, D.M., and Korman, J. 1996. Alternative models of climatic effects on sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) productivity in Bristol Bay, Alaska, and the Fraser River, British Columbia. Fish. Oceanogr. 5: 137-152.
2. Barnes, R.T.H., Hide, R., White, A.A., and Wilson, C.A. 1983. Atmospheric angular momentum fluctuations, length-of-day changes and polar motion. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A, Math. Phys. Sci. 387: 31-73.
3. Barnston, A., and Livezey, R.E. 1987. Classification, seasonality, and persistence of low-frequency circulation patterns. Mon. Weather Rev. 115: 1083-1126.
4. Barry, R.G., and Perry, A.H. 1973. Synoptic climatetology, methods and applications. 1st ed. Methuen & Company Ltd., London, U.K.
5. Baumgartner, T.R., Soutar, A., and Ferreira-Bartrina, V. 1992. Reconstruction of the history of Pacific sardine and northern anchovy populations over the past two millennia from sediments of the Santa Barbara basin, California. Calif. Coop. Oceanic Fish. Invest. Rep. 33: 24-40.
6. Beamish, R.J. 1993. Climate and exceptional fish production off the west coast of North America. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 50: 2270-2291.
7. Beamish, R.J., and Bouillon, D.R. 1993. Pacific salmon production trends in relation to climate. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 50: 1002-1016.
8. Beamish, R.J., Riddell, B.E., Neville, C.-E.M., Thomson, B.L., and Zhang, Z. 1995. Declines in chinook salmon catches in the Strait of Georgia in relation to shifts in the marine environment. Fish. Oceanogr. 4: 243-256.
9. Beamish, R.J., Neville, C.-E.M., and Cass, A.J. 1997a. Production of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to decadal-scale changes in the climate and the ocean. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 54: 543-554.
10. Beamish, R.J., Mahnken, C., and Neville, C.M. 1997b. Hatchery and wild production of Pacific salmon in relation to large-scale, natural shifts in the productivity of the marine environment. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 54: 1200-1225.
11. Bjerkness, J. 1969. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Weather Rev. 97: 162-172.
12. Box, G.E.P., and Jenkins, G.M. 1976. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San Francisco, Calif.
13. Brodeur, R.D., and Ware, D.M. 1992. Long term variability in zooplankton biomass in the subarctic Pacific Ocean. Fish. Oceanogr. 1: 32-38.
14. Campbell, A., Noakes, D.J., and Elner, R.W. 1991. Temperature and lobster, Homarus americanus, yield relationships. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 48: 2073-2082.
15. Cayan, D.R., and Webb, R.H. 1992. El Niño/Southern Oscillation and stream flow in the western United States. El Niño: Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of the Southern Oscillation. Edited by H. Dias and V. Markgraph. Cambridge University Press, London, U.K. pp. 29-68.
16. Courtillot, V., Le Mouel, J.L., and Ducriux, J. 1982. Geomagnetic secular variation as a precursor of climate change. Nature (Lond.), 297: 386-387.
17. Dickey, J.O., Marcus, S.L., and Hide, R. 1992. Global propagation of interannual fluctuations in atmospheric angular momentum. Nature (Lond.), 357: 484-488.
18. Dickey, J.O., Marcus, S.L., Hide, R., Eubanks, T.M., and Boggs, D.H. 1994. Angular momentum exchange among the solid earth, atmosphere, and oceans: a case study of the 1982-1983 El Niño event. J. Geophys. Res. 99(B12): 23 921-23 937.
19. Ebbesmeyer, C.C., Cayan, D.R., McLain, D.R., Nichols, F.H., Peterson, D.H., and Redmond, K.T. 1991. 1976 step in the Pacific climate: forty environmental changes between 1968-1975 and 1977-1984. In Proceedings of the Seventh Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, April 1990. Edited by J.L. Betancourt and V.L. Tharp. Calif. Dep. Water Resour. Interagency Ecol. Stud. Program Tech. Rep. No. 26. pp. 115-126.
20. Eubanks, T.M., Steppe, J.A., and Dickey, J.O. 1986. The El Niño, the Southern Oscillation and the earth rotation. In Earth rotation: solved and unsolved problems. NATO Adv. Sci. Inst. Ser. Ser. C. Math. Phys. Sci. No. 187. Edited by A. Cazenave. D. Reidel, Norwell, Mass. pp. 163-186.
21. Fairbridge, R.W., and Sanders, J.E. 1987. The sun's orbit, A.D. 750-2050: basis for new perspective on planetary dynamics and earth-moon linkage. In Climate, history, periodicity, and predictability. Edited by M.R. Rampino, J.E. Sanders, W.S. Newman, and L.K. Königsson. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York. Chap. 26. pp. 446-471.
22. Francis, R.C., and Hare, S.R. 1994. Decadal-scale regime shifts in the large marine ecosystems of the North-east Pacific: a case for historical science. Fish. Oceanogr. 3: 379-291.
23. Gargett, A.E. 1997. The optimal stability "window": a mechanism underlying decadal fluctuations in North Pacific salmon stocks. Fish. Oceanogr. 6: 1-9.
24. Girs, A.A. 1971. Long-term fluctuations of the atmospheric circulation and hydrometeorological forecasts. L. Hydrometeorol. Monogr., St. Petersburg, Russia. (In Russian.)
25. Graham, N.E. 1994. Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: observations and model results. Clim. Dyn. 10: 135-162.
26. Gu, D., and Philander, S.G.H. 1997. Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics. Science (Washington, D.C.), 275: 805-807.
27. Hare, S.R., and Francis, R.C. 1995. Climate change and salmon production in the northeast Pacific Ocean. In Climate change and northern fish populations. Edited by R.J. Beamish. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 121. pp. 357-372.
28. Hide, R., and Dickey, J.O. 1991. Earth's variable rotation. Science (Washington, D.C.), 253: 629-637.
29. Hide, R., Birch, N.T., Morrison, L.V., Shea, D.J., and White, A.A. 1980. Atmospheric angular momentum fluctuations and changes in the length of day. Nature (Lond.), 286: 114-117.
30. Hipel, K.W., and McLeod, A.I. 1994. Time series modeling of water resources and environmental systems. Elsevier, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
31. Hiyama, Y., Nishida, H., and Goto, T. 1995. Interannual fluctuations in recruitment of growth of the sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, in the Sea of Japan and adjacent waters. Res. Popul. Ecol. 37: 177-183.
32. Hoerling, M.P., Kumar, A., and Zhong, M. 1997. El Niño, La Niña and the nonlinearity of their teleconnections. J. Clim. 10: 1769-1786.
33. Hurrell, J.W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science (Washington, D.C.), 269: 676-679.
34. International Earth Rotation Service. 1996. IERS annual report for 1995. Central Bureau of IERS, Observatoire de Paris, Paris, France.
35. International Earth Rotation Service. 1997. Bulletin A. Nat. Earth Orientation Service. IERS Sub-bureau for Rapid Service and Predictions. U.S. Naval Observatory, Washington, D.C.
36. Ito, S. 1961. Fishery biology of the sardine, Sardinops metanosticta, in waters around Japan. Bull. Jpn. Sea Reg. Fish. Res. Lab. 9: 1-227.
37. Jones, P.D. 1988. Hemispheric surface air temperature variations: recent trends and an update to 1987. J. Clim. 1: 654-660.
38. Jordi, C., Morrison, L.V., Rosen, R.D., Salstein, D.A., and Rossello, G. 1994. Fluctuations in the earth's rotation since 1830 from high resolution astronomical data. Geophys. J. Int. 117: 811-818.
39. Kawasaki, T. 1991. Long-term variability in the pelagic fish populations. In Long-term variability of pelagic fish populations and their environment. Edited by T. Kawasaki, S. Tanaka, Y. Toba, and A. Taniguchi. Pergamon Press, Tokyo. pp. 47-60.
40. Kerr, R.A. 1995. It's official: first glimmer of greenhouse warming seen. Science (Washington, D.C.), 270: 1565-1567.
41. Kondo, K. 1986. Relationships between long term fluctuations in the Japanese sardine Sardinops melanostictus (Temmnick and Schlegel) and oceanographic conditions. In International Symposium on Long Term Changes in Marine Fish Populations, 18-21 Nov. 1986, Vigo, España. Edited by T. Wyatt and M.G. Larrañeta. Imprenta Real, Bayona, Spain. pp. 365-392.
42. Lagerloef, G.S.E. 1995. Interdecadal variations in the Alaska Gyre. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 25: 2242-2258.
43. Lambeck, K. 1980. The earth's variable rotation. Cambridge University Press, London, U.K.
44. Lambeck, K., and Cavenaze, A. 1976. Long-term variations in length of day and climate change. Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 46: 555-573.
45. Latif, M., and Barnett, T.P. 1994. Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science (Washington, D.C.), 266: 634-657.
46. Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., and Francis, R.C. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78: 1069-1079.
47. McCarthy, D.D., and Babcock, A.K. 1986. The length of day since 1656. Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors, 44: 281-292.
48. Miller, D.J., Cayan, D.R., Barnett, J.P., Graham, N.E., and Oberhuber, J.M. 1994. The 1976-77 climate shift of the Pacific Ocean. Oceanography, 7: 21-26.
49. Minobe, S. 1997. A 50-70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24: 683-686.
50. Moore, R.D., and McKendry, I.G. 1996. Spring snowpack anomaly patterns and winter climatic variability, British Columbia, Canada. Water Resour. Res. 32: 623-632.
51. Mörner, N.A. 1986. Ocean circulation and redistribution of energy and mass on a yearly to century time-scale. In International Symposium on Long Term Changes in Marine Fish Populations, 18-21 Nov. 1986, Vigo, España. Edited by T. Wyatt and M.G. Larrañeta. Imprenta Real, Bayona, Spain. pp. 3-19.
52. Munk, W.H., and Macdonald, G.J.F. 1960. The rotation of the earth. Cambridge University Press, London, U.K.
53. Murdoch, J. 1979. Control charts. Macmillan Press Ltd., London, U.K.
54. Namias, J. 1953. Thirty-day forecasting: a review of a ten year experiment. Meteorol. Monogr. Am. Meteorol. Soc. No. 6.
55. Noakes, D.J. 1986. Quantifying changes in British Columbia Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) landings using intervention analysis. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 43: 634-639.
56. Noakes, D.J., and Campbell, A. 1992. Use of geoduck clams to indicate changes in the marine environment of Ladysmith Harbour, B.C. Environmetrics (London, Ont.), 3: 81-97.
57. Pearcy, W.G. 1997. Salmon production in changing ocean domains. In Pacific salmon and their ecosystems: status and future options. Edited by D.J. Stouder, P.A. Bisson, and R.J. Naiman. Chapman and Hall, New York. pp. 331-352.
58. Polovina, J.J., Mitchum, G.T., and Evans, G.T. 1995. Decadal and basin-scale variation in mixed layer depth and the impact on biological production in the central and north Pacific, 1960-1988. Deep-Sea Res. 42: 1201-1716.
59. Reed, R.J., Campbell, W.J., Rasmussen, L.A., and Rogers, D.G. 1961. Evidence of a downward propagating, annual wind reversal in the equatorial stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 66: 813-818.
60. Rodianov, S.N. 1994. Global and regional climate intervention: the Caspian Sea experience. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, Mass.
61. Roemmich, D., and McGowan, J. 1995. Climate warming and the decline of zooplantkon in the California current. Science (Washington, D.C.), 267: 1324-1326.
62. Rosen, R.D., and Salstein, D.A. 1983. Variations in atmospheric angular momentum on global and regional scales and the length of day. J. Geophys. Res. 88: 5451-5470.
63. Serra, R. 1991. Long-term variability of the Chilean sardine. In Long-term variability of pelagic fish populations and their environment. Edited by T. Kawasaki, S. Tanaka, Y. Toba, and A. Taniguchi. Pergamon Press, Tokyo. pp. 165-172.
64. Sidorenkov, N.S., and Svirenko, P.I. 1991. Long-term alterations in atmospheric circulation and fluctuations in climate in the primary natural synoptic region. In Atmospheric processes of the earth. Vol. 316. Studies of the Hydrometeorological Scientific Research Centre, St. Petersburg, Russia. pp. 93-105. (In Russian.)
65. Steele, J.H. 1996. Regime shifts in fisheries management. Fish. Res. 25: 19-23.
66. Steele, J.H. 1998. Regime shifts in marine ecosystems. Ecol. Appl. 8: 533-536.
67. Stephenson, F.R., and Morrison, L.V. 1984. Long-term changes in the rotation of the earth: 700 B.C. to A.D. 1980. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A. Math. Phys. Sci. 313: 47-70.
68. Stephenson, F.R., and Morrison, L.V. 1995. Long-term fluctuations in the earth's rotation: 700 B.C. to A.D. 1990. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A. Math. Phys. Sci. 351: 165-202.
69. Stocker, M., and Noakes, D.J. 1988. Evaluating forecasting procedures for predicting Pacific herring (Clupea harengus pallasi) recruitment in British Columbia. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 45: 928-935.
70. Sugimoto, T., and Tadokoro, K. 1997. Interannual-interdecadal variations in zooplankton biomass, chlorophyll concentration and physical environment in the subarctic Pacific and Bering Sea. Fish. Oceanogr. 6: 74-93.
71. Sugimoto, T., Tadokoro, K., and Furushima, Y. 1995. Climate and weather effects on the chlorophyll concentration in the northwestern North Pacific. In Biogeochemical processes and ocean flux in the western Pacific. Edited by H. Sakai and Y. Nozaki. Terra Scientific Publishing Company, Tokyo. pp. 575-592.
72. Trenberth, K.E. 1990. Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 71: 988-993.
73. Trenberth, K.E., and Hoar, T.J. 1996. The 1990-1995 El Niño - Southern Oscillation event: longest on record. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23: 57-60.
74. Trenberth, K.E., and Hurrell, J.W. 1995. Decadal coupled atmosphere-ocean variations in the North Pacific Ocean. In Climate change and northern fish populations. Edited by R.J. Beamish. Can. Spec. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. No. 121. pp. 14-24.
75. Trenberth, K.E., and Shea, D.J. 1987. On the evolution of the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 115: 3078-3096.
76. van Loon, H., and Rogers, J.C. 1978. The seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and Northern Europe. Part 1. General description. Mon. Weather Rev. 106: 296-310.
77. Venrick, E.L., McGowan, J.A., Cayan, D.R., and Hayward, T.L. 1987. Climate and chlorophyll a: long-term trends in the central North Pacific Ocean. Science (Washington, D.C.), 238: 70-72.
78. Veryard, R.G., and Eldon, R.A. 1961. Fluctuations in tropical stratospheric winds. Meteorol. Mag. 90: 125-143.
79. Walker, G.T. 1924. Correlation in seasonal variations of weather. IX. A further study of world weather. Mem. Indian Meteorol. Dep. 24: 275-332.
80. Walker, G.T., and Bliss, E.W. 1932. World weather V. Mem. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 4: 53-84.
81. Wallace, J.M., and Gutzler, D.S. 1981. Teleconnections in the geo-potential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Weather Rev. 109: 784-812.
82. Ware, D.M. 1995. A century and a half of change in the climate of the NE Pacific. Fish. Oceanogr. 4: 267-277.
83. Yarnal, B. 1984. A procedure for the classification of synoptic weather maps from gridded atmospheric pressure surface data. Comput. Geosci. 10: 397-410.
84. Yarnal, B. 1993. Synoptic climatology in environmental analysis: a primer. Belhaven, London, U.K.
85. Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M., and Battisti, D.S. 1997. ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10: 1004-1020.