Decadal climate variability in Australia during the twentieth century

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 19, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 169-184

  Power, Scott ^a   Tseitkin, Faina ^a   Mehta, Vikram ^d   Lavery, Beth ^a   Torok, Simon ^b   Holbrook, Neil ^c  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY RESEARCH CENTRE   (Australia)

^b CSIRO   (Australia)

^c MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^d BMRC ^*

Author keywords

1910 1993; Australia; Decadal variability; EOFs; Rainfall; SST; Temperature

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; HISTORICAL RECORD; RAINFALL; TEMPERATURE;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 0032942688     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199902)19:2<169::AID-JOC356>3.0.CO;2-Y     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Allan, R.J. 1991. 'Australasia', in Glantz, R., Katz, R. and Nicholls, N. (eds), Teleconnections Linking Worldwide Climate Anomalies, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 73-120.
2. Allan, R.J., Lindesay, J.A. and Reason, C.J.C. 1995. 'Multi-decadal variability in the climate system over the Indian Ocean region during the Austral Summer', J. Clim., 8, 1853-1873.
3. Barnes, S.L. 1964. 'A technique for maximising detail in numerical weather map analysis', J. Appl. Meteor., 3, 396-409.
4. Bottomley, M., Folland, C.K., Hsiung, J., Newell, R.E. and Parker, D.E. 1990. Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA), Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London.
5. Berry, G. 1986. 'Statistical significance and confidence intervals', Med. J. Aust., 144, 618-619.
6. CLIVAR, 1996. 'CLIVAR, A study of climate variability and predictability', Science Plan, WCRP-89, WMO/TD No. 690, August 1995, 157 pp.
7. 2 experiment with a non-flux corrected coupled atmosphere-ocean model', Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 3047-3050.
8. Coughlan, M.J. 1979. 'Recent variations in annual mean maximum temperatures over Australia', Q. J. R. Met. Soc., 105, 707-719.
9. Drosdowsky, W. 1993a. 'An analysis of Australia seasonal rainfall anomalies: 1950-1987. I: Spatial patterns', Int. J. Climatol., 13, 1-30.
10. Drosdowsky, W. 1993b. 'An analysis of Australian seasonal rainfall anomalies: 1950-1987. II: Temporal variability and teleconnection patterns', Int. J. Climatol., 13, 111-149.
11. Gardner, M.J. and Altman, D.G. 1989. 'Estimating with confidence', in Gardner, M.J. and D.G. Altman (eds), Statistics with Confidence, British Medical Journal, London, pp. 3-5.
12. Griffies, S.M. and Bryan, K. 1996. 'Ensemble predictability of simulated North Atlantic interdecadal climate variability', Nature, 275, 181-184.
13. Hasselmann, K. 1976. 'Stochastic climate models. Part I: Theory', Tellus, 28, 473-485.
14. Holbrook, N.J. 1994. Temperature Variability in the Southwest Pacific Ocean, Ph.D. Thesis, University of Sydney, 229 pp.
15. Holbrook, N.J. and Bindoff, N.L. 1996. 'Interannual and decadal temperature variability in the southwest Pacific Ocean', J. Clim., 10, 1035-1049.
16. James, I.N. and James, P.M. 1992. 'Ultra low frequency variability of the tlow in a simple atmospheric circulation model', Q. J. R. Met. Soc., 118, 1211-1233.
17. Katz, R.W., 1988. 'Use of cross-correlations in the search for teleconnections', J. Climatol., 8, 241-53.
18. Kleeman, R. and Power, S.B. 1995. 'Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model due to atmospheric noise', Tellus, 46A, 529-540.
19. Kleeman, R., Colman, R.A., Smith, N.R. and Power, S.B. 1996. 'A recent change in the mean state of the Pacific basin climate: observational evidence and atmospheric and ocean responses', J. Geophys. Res. (Oceans), 101, 20483-20499.
20. Latif, M. and Barnett, T.P. 1994. 'Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America', Science, 266, 634-637.
21. Latif, M., Kleeman, R. and Eckert, C. 1997. 'An investigation of tropical climate variability 1949-1994: an attempt to understand the anomalous 1990s', J. Clim., 10, 2221-2239.
22. Lavery, B., Kariko, A. and Nicholls, N. 1992. 'A historical rainfall data set for Australia', Aust. Met. Mag., 40, 33-39.
23. Lavery, B.M., Joung, G. and Nicholls, N. 1996. 'An extended high quality historical rainfall data set for Australia', Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 46, 27-38.
24. Livezey, R.E. and Chen, W.Y. 1983. 'Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo methods', Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 46-59.
25. Lorenz, E.N., 1976. 'Non-deterministic theories of climate change', Q. Res., 6, 495-506.
26. Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R.J. 1996. 'Low frequency variability of surface air temperature in a 1000-year integration of a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface model', J. Clim., 9, 376-393.
27. Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M. and Francis, R.C. 1997. 'A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production', Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 78, 1069-1080.
28. McAvaney, B.J. and Colman, R.A. 1993. 'The AMIP experiment: the BMRC AGCM configuration', BMRC Res. Rep. No. 38, 43 pp.
29. McBride, J.L. and Nicholls, N. 1983. 'Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation', Mon. Weather Rev., 111, 1998-2004.
30. Mehta, V.M. and Dubey, V.K. 1995. 'Decadal-multidecadal variability of the tropical sea surface temperatures', in Proceedings of the International Science Conference on the TOGA, 2-7 April 1995, Melbourne, Australia, Vol. 1, pp. 67-68.
31. Nicholls, N., 1985. 'Impact of the Southern Oscillation on Australian crops', J. Climatol., 5, 553-560.
32. Nicholls, N., 1989. 'Sea surface temperatures and Australian winter rainfall', J. Clim., 2, 965-973.
33. Nicholls, N., 1992. 'Historical El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability in the Australian region', in Diaz, H.F. and Markgraf, V. (eds) El Niño, Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation, Cambridge, pp. 151-174.
34. Nicholls, N., Drosdowsky, W. and Lavery, B. 1996a. 'Australian rainfall variability and change', Weather, 52, 66-72.
35. Nicholls, N., Lavery, B., Frederiksen, C., Drosdowsky, W. and Torok, S. 1996b. 'Recent changes in relationships between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall and temperature', Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 3357-3360.
36. Power, S.B. and Mysak, L.A. 1992. 'On the interannual variability of Arctic sea-level pressure and sea-ice drift', Atmos.-Ocean, 30, 551-575.
37. Power, S.B., Tseitkin, F., Dix, M., Kleeman, R., Colman, R. and Holland, D. 1995. 'Stochastic variability at the air - sea interface on decadal time scales', Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 2593-2596.
38. Power, S.B., Tseitkin, F., Colman, R. and Sulaiman, A. 1998a. 'A coupled GCM for seasonal prediction and climate change research', BMRC Res. Rep. No. 66, 52 pp.
39. Power, S., Tseitkin, F., Mehta, V., Lavery, B., Torok, S. and Holbrook, N. 1998b. 'Decadal climate variability in Australia during the twentieth century', BMRC Res. Rep. No. 67, 33 pp.
40. Power, S., Tseitkin, F., Torok, S., Lavery, B. and Dahni, R. 1998c. 'Australian rainfall, Australian temperature and the Southern Oscillation, 1910-1992: coherent variability and recent changes', Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 47, 85-101.
41. Priestley, C.H.B. 1964. 'Rainfall-sea surface temperature associations on the New South Wales Coast', Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 47, 15-25.
42. Priestley, C.H.B. and Troup, A.J. 1966. 'Droughts and wet periods and their association with sea-surface temperature', Aust. J. Sci., 29, 56-57.
43. Srikanthan, R. and Stewart, B.J. 1991. 'Analysis of Australian rainfall data with respect to climate variability and change', Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 39, 11-20.
44. Stone, R.C. and Hammer, G.L. 1995. 'The value of climate forecasts to cropping systems in northern NSW and southern Queensland', in NSW Climate Symposium, Program and Abstracts, NSW Bureau of Meteorology Regional Office, September, 1995, 60 pp.
45. Streten, N.A. 1983. 'Extreme distributions of Australian rainfall in relation to sea surface temperature', Int. J. Climatol., 3, 143-153.
46. Torok, S. 1996. A Historical Annual Temperature Data Set for Australia, PhD Thesis, The University of Melbourne, 300 pp.
47. Torok, S. and Nicholls, N. 1996. 'An historical annual temperature data set for Australia', Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 45, 251-260.
48. Walpole, R.E. and Myers, R.H. 1985. Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientist, 5th Edn., Prentice-Hall, New York, 766 pp.
49. Whetton, P., England, M., O'Farrell, S. Watterson, I. and Pittock, A.B. 1996. 'Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: Implications for climate change scenario development', Clim. Change, 33, 497-519.
50. Wonnacott, T.H. and Wonnacott, R.J. 1977. Introductory Statistics, 3rd Edn., Wiley, New York, 650 pp.
51. Zhang, X.-G. and Casey, T.M. 1992: 'Long-term variations in the Southern Oscillation and relationships with Australian rainfall', Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 40, 211-225.
52. Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M. and Battisti, D.S. 1997. 'ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93', J. Clim., 10, 1004-1020.