Polish socioeconomic development in the 1990s and scenarios for EU accession

Europe - Asia Studies

Volumn 51, Issue 5, 1999, Pages 799-819

  Blazyca, George ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ECONOMIC INTEGRATION; EUROPEAN UNION; TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY;

POLAND;

EID: 0032876367     PISSN: 09668136     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09668139998723     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. See the following comparative data: (table presented)
2. See 'Handel zagraniczny: Minus 13.6 mld dolarów', Gazeta Wyborcza, 9 February 1999.
3. The others invited to begin membership negotiations were Hungary, the Czech Republic, Estonia and Slovenia together with, from the Mediterranean region, Cyprus. The negotiations were formally launched in April 1998 and at ministerial level in November 1998.
4. See, for example, Lionel Barber, 'The Poles' Position', Financial Times, 30 July 1998; also George Blazyca & Marek Kolkiewicz, 'Poland and the EU - Do Recent Disputes Threaten the Accession Process?', European Studies Working Paper No. 16, Centre for Contemporary European Studies, University of Paisley, November 1998. By the end of 1998 the following comment could appear in a respected Polish daily: 'Today no-one talks about 2002 as the date of our entry although just a few months ago Polish politicians voiced that view. The year 2006 now appears to be a very optimistic date'. See 'Bilans roku 1998', Rzeczpospolita, 31 December 1998-1 January 1999.
5. See, for example, Lionel Barber, 'The Poles' Position', Financial Times, 30 July 1998; also George Blazyca & Marek Kolkiewicz, 'Poland and the EU - Do Recent Disputes Threaten the Accession Process?', European Studies Working Paper No. 16, Centre for Contemporary European Studies, University of Paisley, November 1998. By the end of 1998 the following comment could appear in a respected Polish daily: 'Today no-one talks about 2002 as the date of our entry although just a few months ago Polish politicians voiced that view. The year 2006 now appears to be a very optimistic date'. See 'Bilans roku 1998', Rzeczpospolita, 31 December 1998-1 January 1999.
6. See, for example, Lionel Barber, 'The Poles' Position', Financial Times, 30 July 1998; also George Blazyca & Marek Kolkiewicz, 'Poland and the EU - Do Recent Disputes Threaten the Accession Process?', European Studies Working Paper No. 16, Centre for Contemporary European Studies, University of Paisley, November 1998. By the end of 1998 the following comment could appear in a respected Polish daily: 'Today no-one talks about 2002 as the date of our entry although just a few months ago Polish politicians voiced that view. The year 2006 now appears to be a very optimistic date'. See 'Bilans roku 1998', Rzeczpospolita, 31 December 1998-1 January 1999.
7. See, for example, Philip Stephens, 'The glass wall', Financial Times, 14 November 1997, where he argues; 'Eight years on, the story [of enlargement] is one of prevarication over principle ... The [Berlin] wall has been replaced by a thick glass screen'. See also Kirsty Hughes, 'A most exclusive club', Financial Times, 26 August 1998. The Economist has also been a steady critic of the EU's slowness to respond to Central Europe's needs; see for example, 'Europe's dual enlargement', The Economist, 21 March 1998.
8. See, for example, Philip Stephens, 'The glass wall', Financial Times, 14 November 1997, where he argues; 'Eight years on, the story [of enlargement] is one of prevarication over principle ... The [Berlin] wall has been replaced by a thick glass screen'. See also Kirsty Hughes, 'A most exclusive club', Financial Times, 26 August 1998. The Economist has also been a steady critic of the EU's slowness to respond to Central Europe's needs; see for example, 'Europe's dual enlargement', The Economist, 21 March 1998.
9. See, for example, Philip Stephens, 'The glass wall', Financial Times, 14 November 1997, where he argues; 'Eight years on, the story [of enlargement] is one of prevarication over principle ... The [Berlin] wall has been replaced by a thick glass screen'. See also Kirsty Hughes, 'A most exclusive club', Financial Times, 26 August 1998. The Economist has also been a steady critic of the EU's slowness to respond to Central Europe's needs; see for example, 'Europe's dual enlargement', The Economist, 21 March 1998.
10. See Martin Walker, 'Don't let myths stop a larger EU, Warsaw pleads', The Guardian, 19 November 1998.
11. Data sources: National income - Informacja o sytuacji społeczno-gospdarczej kraju rok 1997 (Warsaw, GUS, 1998); structural data - Rocznik Statystyczny 1997 (GUS, 1998); trade data - Handel Zagraniczny Styczeń-Grudzień 1997 (GUS, 1998). Unless otherwise stated data are drawn from Polish official sources.
12. Data sources: National income - Informacja o sytuacji społeczno-gospdarczej kraju rok 1997 (Warsaw, GUS, 1998); structural data - Rocznik Statystyczny 1997 (GUS, 1998); trade data - Handel Zagraniczny Styczeń-Grudzień 1997 (GUS, 1998). Unless otherwise stated data are drawn from Polish official sources.
13. Data sources: National income - Informacja o sytuacji społeczno-gospdarczej kraju rok 1997 (Warsaw, GUS, 1998); structural data - Rocznik Statystyczny 1997 (GUS, 1998); trade data - Handel Zagraniczny Styczeń-Grudzień 1997 (GUS, 1998). Unless otherwise stated data are drawn from Polish official sources.
14. Polish statistical sources report the following per capita GDP figures for 1996: Estonia $4,400, Hungary $6,800, the Czech Republic $10,500 and Slovenia $11,100. These contrast with a West European weighted average of $19,500 in which EU incomes/head ranged from Greece's $12,700 to Denmark's $22,400. Informacja o sytuacji społeczno-gospdarczej kraju rok 1997.
15. OECD Economic Survey of Poland in 1998 (Paris, OECD, 1998).
16. 2. Over the period 1988-96 the number of smallest size farming plots (1-2 hectares) increased from 462 200 to 600 000 and the number of largest farms (over 15 hectares) from 173 600 to 350 000. The farm structure is, as Polish reports note, becoming 'polarised'; see 'Odwracanie paraboli', Rzeczpospolita, 15 April 1998.
17. See 'Słabości polskiej wsi', Rzeczpospolita, 1 October 1998.
18. 'Strach po obu stronach', Rzeczpospolita, 22 April 1998.
19. The problem here is that Poland has a very large steel-making capacity. Production of crude steel in 1995 amounted to 11.9 million tonnes, making the country Europe's sixth largest producer after Germany, Italy, France, the UK and Spain and closely followed by Belgium. Rocznik Statystyczny 1997.
20. 'Urlop zamiast pracy', Rzeczpospolita, 18 January 1999. Employment in coal mining fell from 243 300 at the end of 1997 to 207 900 a year later. The restructuring plan aims for an industry with 144 000 miners by the year 2002. Of the 38 300 who left the industry in 1998 some 15 600 took early retirement on generous terms, 10 100 accepted one-off redundancy payments and 13 500 left through natural wastage. Only 145 individuals took up retraining options.
21. Rocznik Statystyczny 1998, pp. 664-665.
22. For example, some Polish commentators have noted that Poland's trade with the EU remains dominated by trade between sectors rather than a more modern deepening of trade within sectors; inter-industry trade rather than intra-industry trade. See 'O integracji polskiej gospodarki z rynkiem UE ... inaczej', Rynki Zagraniczne, 24-25 May 1998. A Western study that comes to the same conclusion is Hubert Gabrisch & Klaus Werner, 'Advantages and drawbacks of EU membership - the structural dimension', Comparative Economic Studies, XXX, 3, Fall 1998. It is worth noting too the impact of foreign direct investment on globalisation processes in Central Europe, where one author has argued that owing to underlying uncertainties multinationals have tended to invest with 'restrained commitment', using Central Europe as a base for seeking trade advantages but not integrating transforming economies into global systems of production or innovation; see Roderick Martin, 'Central and Eastern Europe and the International Economy: The Limits to Globalisation', Europe-Asia Studies, 50, 1,1998. The precise impact of this on export restructuring is not clear.
23. For example, some Polish commentators have noted that Poland's trade with the EU remains dominated by trade between sectors rather than a more modern deepening of trade within sectors; inter-industry trade rather than intra-industry trade. See 'O integracji polskiej gospodarki z rynkiem UE ... inaczej', Rynki Zagraniczne, 24-25 May 1998. A Western study that comes to the same conclusion is Hubert Gabrisch & Klaus Werner, 'Advantages and drawbacks of EU membership - the structural dimension', Comparative Economic Studies, XXX, 3, Fall 1998. It is worth noting too the impact of foreign direct investment on globalisation processes in Central Europe, where one author has argued that owing to underlying uncertainties multinationals have tended to invest with 'restrained commitment', using Central Europe as a base for seeking trade advantages but not integrating transforming economies into global systems of production or innovation; see Roderick Martin, 'Central and Eastern Europe and the International Economy: The Limits to Globalisation', Europe-Asia Studies, 50, 1,1998. The precise impact of this on export restructuring is not clear.
24. For example, some Polish commentators have noted that Poland's trade with the EU remains dominated by trade between sectors rather than a more modern deepening of trade within sectors; inter-industry trade rather than intra-industry trade. See 'O integracji polskiej gospodarki z rynkiem UE ... inaczej', Rynki Zagraniczne, 24-25 May 1998. A Western study that comes to the same conclusion is Hubert Gabrisch & Klaus Werner, 'Advantages and drawbacks of EU membership - the structural dimension', Comparative Economic Studies, XXX, 3, Fall 1998. It is worth noting too the impact of foreign direct investment on globalisation processes in Central Europe, where one author has argued that owing to underlying uncertainties multinationals have tended to invest with 'restrained commitment', using Central Europe as a base for seeking trade advantages but not integrating transforming economies into global systems of production or innovation; see Roderick Martin, 'Central and Eastern Europe and the International Economy: The Limits to Globalisation', Europe-Asia Studies, 50, 1,1998. The precise impact of this on export restructuring is not clear.
25. Trade data from Handel Zagraniczny Styczeń-Grudzień 1997 (Warsaw, GUS, 1998).
26. (table presented)
27. The expectation is a GUS forecast; see 'Urodzeniowa depresja', Gazeta Wyborcza, 1 January 1998.
28. See 'Balcerowicz ostrzega', Gazeta Wyborcza, 20 January 1999.
29. See Stanisław Gomulka, 'The Polish Model of Transformation and Growth', Economics of Transition, 6, 1, 1998.
30. The former head of the Polish negotiating team, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, speaking at the Łódz conference on 'European Integration Towards 2000' in July 1996.
31. Poland lagged other leading transformation economies in attracting FDI inflows in the early 1990s but matters improved by mid-decade. The government's inward investment agency (Państwowa Agencja Inwestycji Zagranicznych - PAIZ) estimates that FDI flow to Poland (based on surveys of firms with projects worth over $1 million) increased from $1.5 billion in 1994 to $2.5 billion in 1995, $5.2 billion in 1996 and $5.7 billion in 1997 (see OECD Economic Survey of Poland 1998 (OECD, 1988), p. 134). PAIZ also expected, at least before the Russian crisis broke, that 1998 would prove to be another good year with FDI rising to $8 billion or $9 billion (see Rzeczpospolita, 27-28 June 1998). Poland now has the largest stock of FDI in the region but FDI per capita remains relatively low, below Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovenia. (table presented)
32. Poland lagged other leading transformation economies in attracting FDI inflows in the early 1990s but matters improved by mid-decade. The government's inward investment agency (Państwowa Agencja Inwestycji Zagranicznych - PAIZ) estimates that FDI flow to Poland (based on surveys of firms with projects worth over $1 million) increased from $1.5 billion in 1994 to $2.5 billion in 1995, $5.2 billion in 1996 and $5.7 billion in 1997 (see OECD Economic Survey of Poland 1998 (OECD, 1988), p. 134). PAIZ also expected, at least before the Russian crisis broke, that 1998 would prove to be another good year with FDI rising to $8 billion or $9 billion (see Rzeczpospolita, 27-28 June 1998). Poland now has the largest stock of FDI in the region but FDI per capita remains relatively low, below Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovenia. (table presented)
33. See OECD Economic Survey of Poland in 1998, pp. 20-23. For a detailed and critical account of Poland's exchange rate policy in the early to mid-1990s see D. M. Nuti, 'Inflation, Interest and Exchange Rates in the Transition', Economics of Transition, 4, 1, 1996, pp. 137-158. For a defence, or at least a rationale, of exchange rate policy see Gomulka, 'The Polish model...'.
34. See OECD Economic Survey of Poland in 1998, pp. 20-23. For a detailed and critical account of Poland's exchange rate policy in the early to mid-1990s see D. M. Nuti, 'Inflation, Interest and Exchange Rates in the Transition', Economics of Transition, 4, 1, 1996, pp. 137-158. For a defence, or at least a rationale, of exchange rate policy see Gomulka, 'The Polish model...'.
35. See OECD Economic Survey of Poland in 1998, pp. 20-23. For a detailed and critical account of Poland's exchange rate policy in the early to mid-1990s see D. M. Nuti, 'Inflation, Interest and Exchange Rates in the Transition', Economics of Transition, 4, 1, 1996, pp. 137-158. For a defence, or at least a rationale, of exchange rate policy see Gomulka, 'The Polish model...'.
36. (table presented)
37. (table presented)
38. Informacja o sytuacji społeczno-gospdarczej kraju rok 1998, p. 80.
39. See Zygmunt Bauman, 'After the Patronage State: A Model in Search of Class Interests', in Christopher G.A.Bryant & Edmund Mokrzycki (eds), The New Great Transformation: Change and Continuity in East-Central Europe (Routledge, 1994).
40. See Aleks Szczerbiak, 'Interests and Values: Polish Parties and Their Electorates', forthcoming in Europe-Asia Studies.
41. The sociologist Lena Kolarska-Bobińska points out in emphasising these themes that although AWS and SLD dominate party politics they attracted only 26.8% of the electorate in the October 1998 voivoidship elections. That the 'remaining' 73.2% either voted for other parties or chose not to vote is, she argues, evidence that the grip of ideology is not as strong as many imagine. 'That is why', she continues, 'the shape of the Polish political scene is not foreclosed once and for ever. The second stage of transformation can also bring serious changes in the political sphere'. 'Co innego bçdzie dzielić Polaköw', Rzeczpospolita, 25 November 1998.
42. See, for example, Marcin Dominik Zdort, 'Nie musimy być w AWS', Rzeczpospolita, 21 December 1998.
43. The intense ministerial in-fighting around the management of EU Phare funds in early 1998 which erupted into open cabinet warfare later in July (while Buzek made his first official trip to Washington) is perhaps the best example. There are others, however - some AWS ministers have voted against the government in parliament.
44. Although it is worth noting that Krzaklewski's opinion poll standing is rarely impressive and by early 1999 some speculated that rather than start the presidential contest with Krzaklewski and lose to Kwaśniewski it might be better for AWS to put Buzek up as its candidate. The Prime Minister's opinion poll standing, despite the problems since 1997, has remained seasonably high.
45. The constitutional question was settled in May 1997 when a national referendum approved, but only just, a new constitution which replaced the so-called 'small constitution' of the 1990s, the ambiguities of which were much exploited by Lech Walcsa during his time as State President. The 25 May referendum aroused only modest voter interest (a 42.9% turnout) with 52.7% voting for and 45.9% against.
46. Throughout 1998 opinion polls showed that Kwaśniewski and Jacek Kuroń, Solidarity's best and longest loved politician, vied with each other for the position of most popular Polish political figure. See, for example, Gazeta Wyborcza, 24 June 1998, which reported that in May Kuroń won the approval of 73% of voters and Kwaśniewski 70%. Wałȩsa, meanwhile, trailed well behind with 46%.
47. See Andrzej Gestern, 'Rzeczpospolita zwia̧zkowa', Rzeczpospolita, 17 July 1996.
48. Sec Barbara Cieszewska, 'Rzeczpospolita zwia̧zkowa', Rzeczpospolita, 13 May 1998.
49. Jerzy Steinhoff, Minister for the Economy in the new AWS-UW government, told reporters following a meeting in December 1997 with Lord Clinton Davies, a UK industry minister, that Poland would be taking the German rather than the British approach to mining restructuring. See 'Bez masowych zwolnień', Rzeczpospolita, 12 December 1997.
50. See Blazyca & Kolkiewicz.
51. For example, some EU members' (especially Germany and Austria) evident concern over labour mobility. Spain and Portugal have always been more ambivalent over widening for obvious structural funds reasons. The 1999 slowdown in world economic growth, combined with the emergence in Germany of a 'red-green' coalition, has pushed questions of jobs and growth up the EU agenda, enlargement slipping down.
52. It is worth noting a slippage in Polish popular support for EU membership. The CBOS polling organisation found that the proportion of those saying they would vote 'yes' in a referendum on joining the EU fell from 80% in May 1996 to 63% in August 1998; see Rzeczpospolita, 11 September 1998. Polish officials most often 'explain' this by calling the earlier situation 'unreal'.
53. Over May-June 1998 the UW would have attracted, according to opinion polls, a steady 14% of the vote while AWS support fluctuated between 30% and 33% and SLD had 29% to 31%; see Rzeczpospolita, 27-28 June 1998. The proportions were little changed on the election result in September 1997 when AWS polled 33.8%, SLD 27.1% and UW 13.4%.
54. For example by the generally up-beat authors of a recent Economist Intelligence Unit report on Poland. See Ben Slay & Louisa Vinton, Poland to 2005 (London, EIU Ltd, 1998).
55. J. K. Galbraith, The Culture of Contentment (London, Penguin, 1992).
56. Ernest Skalski, 'Sami swoi', Gazeta Wyborcza, 12, August 1998. See also Blazyca & Kolkiewicz.