Error propagation in a forest succession model: The role of fine-scale heterogeneity in light

Ecology

Volumn 80, Issue 6, 1999, Pages 1927-1943

  Deutschman, Douglas H ^a,b   Levin, Simon A ^a   Pacala, Stephen W ^a  

^a PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Department of Biology ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

Forest simulation; Heterogeneity; Individual based model; Light heterogeneity, forests; Model simplification; Scaling; SORTIE; Succession, forest

Indexed keywords

ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ERROR ANALYSIS; FOREST DYNAMICS; LIGHT AVAILABILITY; SUCCESSION;

EID: 0032849170     PISSN: 00129658     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/176669     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Bak, P., and M. Paczuski. 1995. Complexity, contingency, and criticality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 92:6689-6696.
2. Baldocchi, D., and S. Collineau. 1994. The physical nature of solar radiation in heterogeneous canopies: spatial and temporal attributes. Pages 21-71 in M. M. Caldwell and R. W. Pearcy, editors. Exploitation of environmental heterogeneity by plants. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
3. Bascompte, J., and R. V. Sole. 1995. Rethinking complexity: modelling spatiotemporal dynamics in ecology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 10:361-366.
4. Bazzaz, F. A., and P. M. Wayne. 1994. Coping with environmental heterogeneity: The physiological ecology of tree seedling regeneration across the gap-understory continuum. Pages 349-389 in M. M. Caldwell and R. W. Pearcy, editors. Exploitation of environmental heterogeneity by plants. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
5. Botkin, D. B. 1993a. Forest dynamics: an ecological model. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
6. _. 1993b. JABOWA-II: a computer model of forest growth. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
7. Botkin, D. B., J. F. Janak, and J. R. Wallis. 1972. Rationale, limitations, and assumptions of a northeastern forest growth simulator. IBM Journal of Research and Development 16: 101-116.
8. Caldwell, M. M., P. A. Matson, C. Wessman, and J. Gamon. 1993. Prospects for scaling. Pages 223-230 in J. R. Ehleringer and C. B. Field, editors. Scaling physiological processes: leaf to globe. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
9. Cale. W. G. 1995. Model aggregation: ecological perspectives. Pages 230-241 in B. C. Patten, S. E. Jørgensen, and S. I. Auerbach, editors. Complex ecology: the part-whole relation in ecosystems. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, USA.
10. Canhain, C. D. 1988. An index for understory light levels in and around canopy gaps. Ecology 69:1634-1638.
11. Canham, C. D., J. S. Denslow, W. J. Platt, J. R. Runkle, T. A. Spies, and P. S. White. 1990. Light regimes beneath closed canopies and tree-fall gaps in temperate and tropical forests. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 20:620-631.
12. Canham, C. D., A. C. Finzi, S. W. Pacala, and D. H. Burbank. 1994. Causes and consequences of resource heterogeneity in forests: interspecific variation in light transmission by canopy trees. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 24:337-349.
13. Chazdon, R. E. 1988. Sunflecks and their importance to forest understorey plants. Advances in Ecological Research 18:1-63.
14. Chazdon, R. E., and C. B. Field. 1987. Photographic estimation of photosynthetically active radiation: evaluation of a computerized technique. Oecologia 73:525-532.
15. Cressie, N. A. C. 1991. Statistics for spatial data. John Wiley and Sons. New York, New York, USA.
16. Crowder, M. J., and D. J. Hand. 1990. Analysis of repeated measures. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
17. Deutschman, D. H. 1996. Scaling from trees to forests: the problem of relevant detail. Dissertation. Cornell University, Ithaca. New York, USA.
18. Deutschman, D. H., S. A. Levin, C. Devine, and L. A. Buttel. 1997a. Scaling from trees to forests: analysis of a complex simulation model. Science 277:1688.
19. Deutschman, D. H., S. A. Levin, C. Devine, and L. A. Buttel. 1997b. Scaling from trees to forests: analysis of a complex simulation model. Science Online: 〈www.scicncemag.org/ feature/data/deutschman/index.htm〉.
20. Gross, L. J., K. A. Rose, E. J. J. Rykiel, W. Van Winkle, and E. E. Werner. 1992. Individual-based modeling: summary of a workshop. Pages 51 1-522 in D. L. DeAngelis and L. J. Gross, editors. Individual-based models and approaches in ecology. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
21. Harris, R. J. 1985. A primer of multivariate statistics. Academic Press, Orlando, Florida, USA.
22. Hastings, A., C. L. Hom, S. Ellner, P. Turchin, and H. C. J. Gadfray. 1993. Chaos in ecology: is mother nature a strange attractor? Annual Review Ecology and Systematics 24:1-33.
23. Horn, H. S., H. H. Shugart, and D. L. Urban. 1989. Simulators as models of forest dynamics. Pages 256-267 in J. Roughgarden, R. M. May, and S. A. Levin, editors. Perspectives in ecological theory. Princeton, University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
24. Hubbell, S. P., and R. F. Foster. 1986. Canopy gaps and the dynamics of a neotropical forest. Pages 77-96 in M. J. Crawley, editor. Plant ecology. Blackwell Scientific, Oxford, UK.
25. Huston, M., D. DeAngelis, and W. Post. 1988. New computer models unify ecological theory. BioScience 38:682-691.
26. Huston, M. A. 1991. Use of individual-based forest succession models to link physiological whole-tree models to landscape-scale ecosystem models. Tree Physiology 9:293-306.
27. Jarvis, P. G. 1993. Prospects for bottom-up models. Pages 115-126 in J. R. Ehleringer and C. B. Field, editors. Scaling physiological processes: leaf to globe. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
28. Kobe, R. K., S. W. Pacala, J. A. J. Silander, and C. D. Canham 1995. Juvenile tree survivorship as a component of shade tolerance. Ecological Applications 5:517-532.
29. Kochl, M. A. R. 1989. Discussion: from individuals to populations. Pages 39-53 in J. Roughgarden, R. M. May, and S. A. Levin, editors. Perspectives in ecological theory. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
30. Levin, S. 1991. The problem of relevant detail. Pages 9-15 in S. Busenberg and M. Martelli, editors. Differential equations - models in biology, epidemiology, and ecology. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
31. Levin, S. A. 1992. The problem of pattern and scale in Ecology. Ecology 73:1943-1967.
32. Levin, S. A., B. Grenfell, A. Hastings, and A. Perelson. 1997. Mathematical and computational challenges in population biology and ecosystem science. Science 275:334-343.
33. Lubchenco, J. 1995. The relevance of ecology: The societal context and disciplinary implications of linkages across levels of ecological organization. Pages 297-305 in C. G. Jones and J. H. Lawton, editors. Linking species and ecosystems. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
34. Nicolis, G. 1994. Dynamical systems, biological complexity and global change. Pages 21-32 in O. T. Solbrig, H. M. van Emden, and P. G. W. J. van Oordt, editors. Biodiversity and global change. CAB International, Wallingford, UK.
35. O'Neill, R. V. 1989. Perspectives in hierarchy and scale. Pages 140-156 in J. Roughgarden, R. M. May, and S. A. Levin, editors. Perspectives in ecological theory. Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
36. Onstad, D. W. 1988. Population-dynamics theory: the roles of analytical, simulation, and supercomputer models. Ecological Modelling 43:111-124.
37. Pacala, S. W., C. D. Canham, and J. A. J. Silander. 1993. Forest models defined by Held measurements: I. The design of a northeastern forest simulator. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 23:1980-1988.
38. Pacala, S. W., C. D. Canham, J. A. J. Silander, and R. K. Kobe. 1994. Sapling growth as a function of resources in a north temperate forest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 24:2172-2183.
39. Pacala, S. W., C. D. Canham, J. A. J. Silander, R. K. Kobe, and E. Ribbens. 1996. Forest models defined by field measurements: estimation, error analysis and dynamics. Ecological Monographs 66:1-43.
40. Pacala, S. W., and D. H. Deutschman. 1995. Details that matter: the spatial distribution of individual trees maintains forest ecosystem function. Oikos 74:357-365.
41. 2-induced climate change. Climatic Change 23:111-119.
42. Pearcy, R. W., R. L. Chazdon, L. J. Gross, and K. A. Mott. 1994. Photosynthetic utilization of sunflecks: a temporally patchy resource on a time scale of seconds to minutes. Pages 175-208 in M. M. Caldwell and R. W. Pearcy, editors. Exploitation of environmental heterogeneity by plants. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
43. Perry, D. A. 1994. Forest ecosystems. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
44. Prentice, I. C., and R. Leemans. 1990. Patlern and process and the dynamics of forest structure: a simulation approach. Journal of Ecology 78:340-355.
45. Running, S. W., and E. R. J. Hunt. 1993. Generalization of a forest ecosystem process model for other biomes. BI-OME-BGC and an application for global-scale models. Pages 141-158 in J. R. Ehleringer and C. B. Field, editors. Scaling physiological processes: leaf to globe. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
46. Segel, L. A. 1995. Grappling with complexity. Complexity 1(2): 18-25.
47. Shugart, H. H. 1984. A theory of forest dynamics. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
48. Shugart, H. H., and T. M. Smith. 1992. Using computer models to project ecosystem response, habitat change, and wildlife diversity. Pages 147-157 in R. L. Peters and T. E. Lovejoy, editors. Global warming and biological diversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
49. Shugart, H. H., and D. C. West. 1980. Forest succession models. BioScience 30:308-313.
50. Sipe, T. W., and F. A. Bazzaz. 1995. Gap partitioning among maples (Acer) in central New England: survival and growth. Ecology 76:1587-1602.
51. Sneppen, K., P. Bak, H. Flyvbjcrg, and M. H. Jensen. 1995. Evolution as a self-organized critical phenomenon. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 92: 5209-5213.
52. Solomon, A. M., and W. Cramer. 1993. Biospheric implications of global change. Pages 25-52 in A. M. Solomon and H. H. Shugart, editors. Vegetation dynamics and global change. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
53. Turner, M. G., and R. V. O'Neill. 1995. Exploring aggregation in space and time. Pages 194-208 in C. G. Jones and J. H. Lawton, editors. Linking species and ecosystems. Chapman and Hall, New York, New York, USA.
54. Urban, D. L., G. B. Bonan, T. M. Smith, and H. H. Shugart. 1991. Spatial applications of gap models. Forest Ecology and Management 42:95-110.
55. Urban, D. L., and H. H. Shugart. 1992. Individual-based models of forest succession. Pages 249-292 in D. C. Glenn-Lewin, R. K. Peet, and T. T. Veblen, editors. Plant succession: theory and prediction. Chapman and Hall, London, UK.
56. Whitmore, T. C. 1989. Canopy gaps and the two major groups of forest trees. Ecology 70:536-538.
57. Wiens, J. A., and B. T. Milne. 1989. Scaling of "landscapes" in ecology, or landscape ecology from a beetle's perspective. Landscape Ecology 3:87-96.