North Korea between collapse and reform

Asian Survey

Volumn 39, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 287-309

  Oh, Kongdan ^a   Hassig, Ralph ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC REFORM; FUTURE PROSPECT; POLITICAL REFORM;

NORTH KOREA;

EID: 0032847073     PISSN: 00044687     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2645456     Document Type: Article

References (106)

1. Mark Kirk, general counsel of the House International Relations Committee, quoted in John Pomfret, "Congressional Aides Report High Hunger Toll in North Korea," Washington Post, August 20, 1998, p. A22.
2. Elisabeth Rosenthal, "In North Korean Hunger, Legacy Is Stunted Children," New York Times, December 10, 1998, pp. A1/A12.
3. Larry A. Niksch, "U.S. Policy Towards North Korea: The Collapse Theory and Its Influence," paper for the Annual International Symposium of Korea National Defense University on "Interrelations among South Korea, North Korea, and the United States beyond the 1994 Geneva Nuclear Agreement," August 1997, Seoul.
4. Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea: A Pragmatic Breakthrough," paper for the 1997 Joint Conference of The Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies and the International Council on Korean Studies, Arlington, Va., October 1997; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis and Four Scenarios Regarding the Process of Changes," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 54-73; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime," in Tae-Hwan Kwak, ed. The Search for Peace and Security in Northeast Asia: Toward the 21st Century (Seoul: Kyungnam University Press, 1997), pp. 137-70; Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea," Foreign Policy 106 (Spring 1997), pp. 57-75
5. Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea: A Pragmatic Breakthrough," paper for the 1997 Joint Conference of The Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies and the International Council on Korean Studies, Arlington, Va., October 1997; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis and Four Scenarios Regarding the Process of Changes," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 54-73; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime," in Tae-Hwan Kwak, ed. The Search for Peace and Security in Northeast Asia: Toward the 21st Century (Seoul: Kyungnam University Press, 1997), pp. 137-70; Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea," Foreign Policy 106 (Spring 1997), pp. 57-75
6. Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea: A Pragmatic Breakthrough," paper for the 1997 Joint Conference of The Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies and the International Council on Korean Studies, Arlington, Va., October 1997; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis and Four Scenarios Regarding the Process of Changes," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 54-73; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime," in Tae-Hwan Kwak, ed. The Search for Peace and Security in Northeast Asia: Toward the 21st Century (Seoul: Kyungnam University Press, 1997), pp. 137-70; Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea," Foreign Policy 106 (Spring 1997), pp. 57-75
7. Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea: A Pragmatic Breakthrough," paper for the 1997 Joint Conference of The Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies and the International Council on Korean Studies, Arlington, Va., October 1997; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis and Four Scenarios Regarding the Process of Changes," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 54-73; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime," in Tae-Hwan Kwak, ed. The Search for Peace and Security in Northeast Asia: Toward the 21st Century (Seoul: Kyungnam University Press, 1997), pp. 137-70; Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea," Foreign Policy 106 (Spring 1997), pp. 57-75
8. The estimate of a 30% operating level for factories is widely cited by North Korean defectors, according to South Korea's Ministry of Unification. See, for example, A Handbook on North Korea, 1st Revision (November 1998) (Seoul: Naewoe Press. 1998), p. 27. Eyewitness accounts of visitors from neutral or friendly countries offer corroborating evidence. Willi Scholl of the United Nations Development Program is quoted in a Swedish article as saying that "basically it's a matter of the entire industrial sector's being shut down." See Britt-Marie Mattsson, "One Step Forward, Two Steps Back," Hufvudstadsbladet, July 14, 1997, p. 6, in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), August 29, 1997. A Chinese scholar who visited North Korea in 1998 offers a pessimistic view: "the power supply is worsening . . . railway transportation is almost half paralyzed . . . [and] aging and obsolescence of equipment and basic facilities . . . ha[ve] caused industrial accidents on a constant basis." See Han Zhenshe, "North Korea Which I Have Seen," Shijie Zhishi, September 25, 1998 (no. 19), pp. 20-21, in FBIS, October 29, 1998.
9. The estimate of a 30% operating level for factories is widely cited by North Korean defectors, according to South Korea's Ministry of Unification. See, for example, A Handbook on North Korea, 1st Revision (November 1998) (Seoul: Naewoe Press. 1998), p. 27. Eyewitness accounts of visitors from neutral or friendly countries offer corroborating evidence. Willi Scholl of the United Nations Development Program is quoted in a Swedish article as saying that "basically it's a matter of the entire industrial sector's being shut down." See Britt-Marie Mattsson, "One Step Forward, Two Steps Back," Hufvudstadsbladet, July 14, 1997, p. 6, in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), August 29, 1997. A Chinese scholar who visited North Korea in 1998 offers a pessimistic view: "the power supply is worsening . . . railway transportation is almost half paralyzed . . . [and] aging and obsolescence of equipment and basic facilities . . . ha[ve] caused industrial accidents on a constant basis." See Han Zhenshe, "North Korea Which I Have Seen," Shijie Zhishi, September 25, 1998 (no. 19), pp. 20-21, in FBIS, October 29, 1998.
10. The estimate of a 30% operating level for factories is widely cited by North Korean defectors, according to South Korea's Ministry of Unification. See, for example, A Handbook on North Korea, 1st Revision (November 1998) (Seoul: Naewoe Press. 1998), p. 27. Eyewitness accounts of visitors from neutral or friendly countries offer corroborating evidence. Willi Scholl of the United Nations Development Program is quoted in a Swedish article as saying that "basically it's a matter of the entire industrial sector's being shut down." See Britt-Marie Mattsson, "One Step Forward, Two Steps Back," Hufvudstadsbladet, July 14, 1997, p. 6, in Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), August 29, 1997. A Chinese scholar who visited North Korea in 1998 offers a pessimistic view: "the power supply is worsening . . . railway transportation is almost half paralyzed . . . [and] aging and obsolescence of equipment and basic facilities . . . ha[ve] caused industrial accidents on a constant basis." See Han Zhenshe, "North Korea Which I Have Seen," Shijie Zhishi, September 25, 1998 (no. 19), pp. 20-21, in FBIS, October 29, 1998.
11. The $5 billion GNP figure submitted by North Korea to the United Nations was reported by South Korea's Yonhap News Agency, on June 23, 1997 in FBIS, June 24, 1997. The South Korean government estimates the DPRK's 1997 GNP to be $17.7 billion, making the per capita GNP $741, down from $1,064 in 1990. See A Handbook on North Korea, p. 26.
12. A wealth of information exists on North Korea's secondary economies, much of it gleaned from defectors. Perhaps the best overview of the secondary economies is provided by Hong-taek Chun, "The Characteristics and Function of the Second Economy in North Korea," Vantage Point 20:4 (April 1997), pp. 28-37. A broader view of North Korea's economy, including consideration of the second economy, may be found in O-hong Kwon, "A Study of North Korean Commercial Practices: Practical Approaches and Mistakes," T'ongil Kyongje, October 1997, pp. 42-62, in FBIS, December 22, 1997.
13. A wealth of information exists on North Korea's secondary economies, much of it gleaned from defectors. Perhaps the best overview of the secondary economies is provided by Hong-taek Chun, "The Characteristics and Function of the Second Economy in North Korea," Vantage Point 20:4 (April 1997), pp. 28-37. A broader view of North Korea's economy, including consideration of the second economy, may be found in O-hong Kwon, "A Study of North Korean Commercial Practices: Practical Approaches and Mistakes," T'ongil Kyongje, October 1997, pp. 42-62, in FBIS, December 22, 1997.
14. See, for example, Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "North Korea's Deadly Industries Revealed," Jane's Defence Weekly 28:19 (November 12, 1997), pg. 54; Hangyore Sinmun, March 31, 1997, p. 6, (in FBIS, April 1, 1997); Vantage Point 20:5 (May 1997), pp. 7-9; and Young Tai Jeung, "North Korea's Armament Industry, and the Buildup of the Biochemical Warfare Capability," East Asian Review 7:2 (Summer 1995), pp. 40-51.
15. See, for example, Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "North Korea's Deadly Industries Revealed," Jane's Defence Weekly 28:19 (November 12, 1997), pg. 54; Hangyore Sinmun, March 31, 1997, p. 6, (in FBIS, April 1, 1997); Vantage Point 20:5 (May 1997), pp. 7-9; and Young Tai Jeung, "North Korea's Armament Industry, and the Buildup of the Biochemical Warfare Capability," East Asian Review 7:2 (Summer 1995), pp. 40-51.
16. See, for example, Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "North Korea's Deadly Industries Revealed," Jane's Defence Weekly 28:19 (November 12, 1997), pg. 54; Hangyore Sinmun, March 31, 1997, p. 6, (in FBIS, April 1, 1997); Vantage Point 20:5 (May 1997), pp. 7-9; and Young Tai Jeung, "North Korea's Armament Industry, and the Buildup of the Biochemical Warfare Capability," East Asian Review 7:2 (Summer 1995), pp. 40-51.
17. See, for example, Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "North Korea's Deadly Industries Revealed," Jane's Defence Weekly 28:19 (November 12, 1997), pg. 54; Hangyore Sinmun, March 31, 1997, p. 6, (in FBIS, April 1, 1997); Vantage Point 20:5 (May 1997), pp. 7-9; and Young Tai Jeung, "North Korea's Armament Industry, and the Buildup of the Biochemical Warfare Capability," East Asian Review 7:2 (Summer 1995), pp. 40-51.
18. See Vasily Mikheev, "Reforms of the North Korean Economy: Requirements, Plans, and Hopes," Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 5:1 (Summer 1993), reprinted in Information Service on the Unification Question of the Korean Peninsula 1993:3, pp. 52-66.
19. See Vasily Mikheev, "Reforms of the North Korean Economy: Requirements, Plans, and Hopes," Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 5:1 (Summer 1993), reprinted in Information Service on the Unification Question of the Korean Peninsula 1993:3, pp. 52-66.
20. Since the secondary economies are varied in form and operate either domestically or in clandestine relations with organizations in other states, it is extremely difficult to estimate the size of these economies. O-hong Kwon, "A Study of North Korean Commercial Practices," provides the broad estimate that the secondary economies comprise between 20% and 60% of North Korea's GNP. Hangyore Sinmun (March 31, 1996), p. 6, estimates the military economy itself is as large as the civilian economy.
21. Since the secondary economies are varied in form and operate either domestically or in clandestine relations with organizations in other states, it is extremely difficult to estimate the size of these economies. O-hong Kwon, "A Study of North Korean Commercial Practices," provides the broad estimate that the secondary economies comprise between 20% and 60% of North Korea's GNP. Hangyore Sinmun (March 31, 1996), p. 6, estimates the military economy itself is as large as the civilian economy.
22. These have included: (1) Factory and agricultural responsibility systems: Taean (1960) and Chongsan-ni (1961) Systems, and the Independent Accounting System (1984); (2) August 3 Consumer Goods Movement (1984); (3) Appearance of people's markets (since at least 1984); (4) Foreign Joint Venture Law (1984); (5) Najin-Sonbong Foreign Economic and Trade Zone (1991); (6) Business laws for foreign investors (1991-1993); (7) Agriculture, light industry, and foreign trade first policy (1994); (8) Decentralization of responsibility to provinces (partial, 1981; for food rations, 1995); (9) Courses in capitalist business practices taught by foreigners offered at Kim Il Sung University (1995); (10) KEDO nuclear project zone (1995); (11) Farm small work team responsibility system and contract farming (1996).
23. On August 3, 1984, Kim Jong Il inspected an exhibition in Pyongyang of light industry products made from locally available scrap materials. The younger Kim, who usually made such inspections in the company of his father, has always sought to cultivate for himself the image of a leader who cares deeply for his people (so long as he doesn't have to come into contact with them); championing light industry seemed like a good way to boost this image.
24. Kim himself reportedly prefers foreign-made products such as imported foods and wines, electronic products, videos, and of course Benz automobiles. See, for example, the article by former DPRK diplomat Yong-hwan Ko, "Specially Attached Interpreter Who Defected Discloses the True Character of Kim Il-song and his Son," Bungei Shunju, August 1994, pp. 94-103, in FBIS, July 27, 1994. pp. 15-21.
25. "Let Us Adhere to the Line on Building a Self-Reliant National Economy to the End." Joint Editorial in Nodong Sinmun and Kulloja, September 17, 1998, translated from a Korean Central Broadcasting Network (KCBN) broadcast by FBIS on September 18, 1998.
26. "Let Us Glorify This Year as a Great Year that Will Become a Turning Point in Building a Powerful State," New Year's Joint Editorial read on KCBN, January 1, 1999, in FBIS, January 3, 1999.
27. Chollima is a legendary flying horse that could cover 400 kilometers in a day. The horse's speed is meant not only to symbolize the "speed battles" that Kim Jong Il desires from his workers but also perhaps to suggest that even the miraculous is possible.
28. "North Korean Agricultural Policy in Chaos," Naewoe T'ongsin, January 8, 1998, pp. F1-F6, in FBIS, March 2, 1998; Sun-chik Hong, "North Korea's Agricultural Management," T'ongil Kyongje, May 15, 1998, pp. 99-107, in FBIS, June 29, 1998.
29. "North Korean Agricultural Policy in Chaos," Naewoe T'ongsin, January 8, 1998, pp. F1-F6, in FBIS, March 2, 1998; Sun-chik Hong, "North Korea's Agricultural Management," T'ongil Kyongje, May 15, 1998, pp. 99-107, in FBIS, June 29, 1998.
30. Most of the material on people's markets is provided by defectors. For a history of these markets, see "Control Measure for 'Farmers Markets' Mired in Confusion," Naewoe T'ongsin, July 11, 1996, pp. E1-E4, in FBIS, August 26, 1996, pp. 35-37. The size and popularity of these markets is described in a Chungang Ilbo article by reporter Won-tae Sin, May 21, 1997, p. 10, in FBIS, May 22, 1997.
31. Most of the material on people's markets is provided by defectors. For a history of these markets, see "Control Measure for 'Farmers Markets' Mired in Confusion," Naewoe T'ongsin, July 11, 1996, pp. E1-E4, in FBIS, August 26, 1996, pp. 35-37. The size and popularity of these markets is described in a Chungang Ilbo article by reporter Won-tae Sin, May 21, 1997, p. 10, in FBIS, May 22, 1997.
32. People's Korea, the DPRK's news outlet in Japan, reported that total foreign investment by the end of 1996 amounted to $37 million. See "Update on Rajin-Sonbong Trade Zone," People's Korea:1800 (September 27, 1997), p. 5.
33. People's Korea, the DPRK's news outlet in Japan, reported that total foreign investment by the end of 1996 amounted to $37 million. See "Update on Rajin-Sonbong Trade Zone," People's Korea:1800 (September 27, 1997), p. 5.
34. The Choch 'ongnyon joint investments have, with considerable justification, been called "donation businesses." See Chi-ho Sin, "Bittersweet Experience with the Partner Outside the Market Economy: 10-Year Summation of DPRK-Chosen Soren Joint Ventures," Sindong-A, April 1996, pp. 254-271, in FBIS, June 20, 1996, pp. 34-47.
35. North Korea staged a business forum for foreigners at Najin-Sonbong in September 1996 (just before a North Korean submarine loaded with commandos grounded itself on South Korean shores, casting a pall over the investment atmosphere). The forum provided an opportunity for the curious to take a peek inside this corner of North Korea. L. Gordon Flake and Marcus Noland provide an economic evaluation of the zone in "The Rajin-Sonbong Free Economic and Trade Zone," Korea's Economy, 1997 (Washington: Korea Economic Institute of America, 1997), pp. 104-109. For a news correspondent's bleak view, see Andrew Pollack, "Behind North Korea's Barbed Wire: Capitalism," New York Times, September 15, 1996. See also a highly critical article by the usually sympathetic Hangyore 21: Ul-ch'ul Yim, "End of Experiment for Opening Najin-Sonbong?" Hangyore 21 (Chollian Database version), February 4, 1999, in FBIS, February 14, 1999.
36. North Korea staged a business forum for foreigners at Najin-Sonbong in September 1996 (just before a North Korean submarine loaded with commandos grounded itself on South Korean shores, casting a pall over the investment atmosphere). The forum provided an opportunity for the curious to take a peek inside this corner of North Korea. L. Gordon Flake and Marcus Noland provide an economic evaluation of the zone in "The Rajin-Sonbong Free Economic and Trade Zone," Korea's Economy, 1997 (Washington: Korea Economic Institute of America, 1997), pp. 104-109. For a news correspondent's bleak view, see Andrew Pollack, "Behind North Korea's Barbed Wire: Capitalism," New York Times, September 15, 1996. See also a highly critical article by the usually sympathetic Hangyore 21: Ul-ch'ul Yim, "End of Experiment for Opening Najin-Sonbong?" Hangyore 21 (Chollian Database version), February 4, 1999, in FBIS, February 14, 1999.
37. North Korea staged a business forum for foreigners at Najin-Sonbong in September 1996 (just before a North Korean submarine loaded with commandos grounded itself on South Korean shores, casting a pall over the investment atmosphere). The forum provided an opportunity for the curious to take a peek inside this corner of North Korea. L. Gordon Flake and Marcus Noland provide an economic evaluation of the zone in "The Rajin-Sonbong Free Economic and Trade Zone," Korea's Economy, 1997 (Washington: Korea Economic Institute of America, 1997), pp. 104-109. For a news correspondent's bleak view, see Andrew Pollack, "Behind North Korea's Barbed Wire: Capitalism," New York Times, September 15, 1996. See also a highly critical article by the usually sympathetic Hangyore 21: Ul-ch'ul Yim, "End of Experiment for Opening Najin-Sonbong?" Hangyore 21 (Chollian Database version), February 4, 1999, in FBIS, February 14, 1999.
38. Yong-ok Ch'oe, "The Trade Policy Presented by Our Party Today and Its Correctness," Kyongje Yongu [Economic research], April 10, 1997, pp. 13-18, in FBIS, November 20, 1997.
39. Kap-che Cho, "Recorded Tape of Kim Chong-il's Live Voice: 60 Minutes of Astonishing Confessions Similar to that of a Reactionary," Wolgan Choson, October 1995, pp. 104-128, in FBIS, November 3, 1995, pp. 40-52. While residing in the United States, the film director Sangok Shin and his actress wife Eun-hi Choi authored a two-volume work about their experiences in North Korea: Choguk-un chohanul chomolli [Diary: The motherland is beyond the sky and far away] (Pacific Palisades, Calif.: Pacific Artist Corporation, 1988).
40. Kap-che Cho, "Recorded Tape of Kim Chong-il's Live Voice: 60 Minutes of Astonishing Confessions Similar to that of a Reactionary," Wolgan Choson, October 1995, pp. 104-128, in FBIS, November 3, 1995, pp. 40-52. While residing in the United States, the film director Sangok Shin and his actress wife Eun-hi Choi authored a two-volume work about their experiences in North Korea: Choguk-un chohanul chomolli [Diary: The motherland is beyond the sky and far away] (Pacific Palisades, Calif.: Pacific Artist Corporation, 1988).
41. Larry A. Niksch, "U.S. Policy Towards North Korea."
42. Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse," East Asian Review 8:1 (Spring 1996), pp. 26-41.
43. When Secretary Hwang defected to South Korea in 1997, he came with the warning that North Korea was preparing for war, one that he hoped to prevent. Since that time, in subsequent interviews, including one with the first author of this paper, he seems to have modified his views. Hwang now insists that Kim Jong Il has no stomach to fight a war he knows he will lose and, in any case, the strength of the North Korean military has declined to the point where it could not follow up on an initial attack even if Kim Jong Il gave the order to start a war.
44. "Statement of a spokesman of the KPA General Staff," KCBN, December 2, 1998, in FBIS, the same date.
45. For two slightly different expressions of this threat, see a December 7, 1998, unattributed talk on KCBN entitled "Do Not Try to Test Our Strength and Will," in FBIS, December 8, 1998; and a January 29, 1999, article in Nodong Sinmun entitled "Be a Human Fortress to Defend Pyongyang," in FBIS, February 7, 1999.
46. For two slightly different expressions of this threat, see a December 7, 1998, unattributed talk on KCBN entitled "Do Not Try to Test Our Strength and Will," in FBIS, December 8, 1998; and a January 29, 1999, article in Nodong Sinmun entitled "Be a Human Fortress to Defend Pyongyang," in FBIS, February 7, 1999.
47. Nicholas Eberstadt, "The DPRK as an Economy under Multiple Severe Stresses: Analogies and Lessons from Past and Recent Historical Experience," Korean Journal of National Unification 6, 1997, pp. 151-190.
48. In a recent survey of the North Korean famine, Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Tao Wang suggest that "the economy has collapsed around agricuture - that is, the fall in agricultural output has been actually less dramatic than the decline in output in other sectors." Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures, paper published by the Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., December 1998, p. 1.
49. For example. Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea: Is There Any Possibility for System Transformation?" Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 7:2, 1995, pp. 217-35; Wan-bom Lee, "Prospects of Changes in Pyongyang's Power Structure and Foreign Policies," East Asian Review 9:3 (Autumn 1997), pp. 94-113.
50. For example. Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea: Is There Any Possibility for System Transformation?" Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 7:2, 1995, pp. 217-35; Wan-bom Lee, "Prospects of Changes in Pyongyang's Power Structure and Foreign Policies," East Asian Review 9:3 (Autumn 1997), pp. 94-113.
51. For example. Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea: Is There Any Possibility for System Transformation?" Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 7:2, 1995, pp. 217-35; Wan-bom Lee, "Prospects of Changes in Pyongyang's Power Structure and Foreign Policies," East Asian Review 9:3 (Autumn 1997), pp. 94-113.
52. See, for example, the interview of former North Korean army Colonel Chu-hwal Choe by Chun-ho To in Choson Ilbo, February 13, 1996, p. 2, in FBIS, June 21, 1996, pp. 38-39.
53. The new provision in the 1998 revision of the Constitution guaranteeing that "citizens shall have freedom to reside in and travel to any place" may be an admission of the population movement problem, but the guarantee should not be taken more seriously than any of the other human rights guarantees embodied in it.
54. "DPRK Provides People with All Happiness," Pyongyang's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), July 2, 1998, in FBIS, July 6, 1998.
55. A bipartisan congressional factfinding team estimated 300,000 to 800,000 premature deaths per year. See John Pomfret, "Congressional Aides Report High Hunger Toll in N. Korea." The most reliable study to date reported that 62% of children under the age of seven had stunted growth and that 30% of children between the ages of one and two suffered from moderate to severe malnutrition. Although the research team did not have access to the necessary data to make an estimate of the number of premature deaths due to malnutrition in North Korea, the news article quotes a consensus figure of from one to three million. See Elisabeth Rosenthal, "In North Korean Hunger, Legacy Is Stunted Children," New York Times, December 10, 1998, pp. A1/A12.
56. A bipartisan congressional factfinding team estimated 300,000 to 800,000 premature deaths per year. See John Pomfret, "Congressional Aides Report High Hunger Toll in N. Korea." The most reliable study to date reported that 62% of children under the age of seven had stunted growth and that 30% of children between the ages of one and two suffered from moderate to severe malnutrition. Although the research team did not have access to the necessary data to make an estimate of the number of premature deaths due to malnutrition in North Korea, the news article quotes a consensus figure of from one to three million. See Elisabeth Rosenthal, "In North Korean Hunger, Legacy Is Stunted Children," New York Times, December 10, 1998, pp. A1/A12.
57. The characterizations of the North Korean people in this and the following paragraphs are based largely on interviews with 20 North Korean defectors conducted in 1997 and 1998 by the first author. This information is for the most part consistent with published testimony from other defectors. The interviews on which these characterizations are based focused particularly on the attitudes of the North Korean people. On the basic dimension of belief or disbelief in North Korean propaganda, the interviewer tentatively concluded that the people believe much of what the government tells them. At the same time, the people realize there must be some other truth to explain why the reality they know is so different from the ideals they are taught. However, they have neither the information nor the information processing skills to identify the lies and exaggerations they are told, and thus remain confused and apathetic.
58. Nicholas Eberstadt, "North Korea: Reform, Muddling Through, or Collapse?" NBR Analysis (National Bureau of Asian Research) 4:3 (September 1993), entire issue, quote is on p. 14.
59. A former North Korean diplomat, Young-hwan Koh, describes some of the North Korean surveillance mechanisms in his book Wonderland (Seoul: The Institute of North Korean Affairs, 1994), pp. 14-19. Information collected by the ROK government on surveillance in the North Korean military is available in an article entitled "Organization and Role of Military Political Organs, Naewoe T'ongsin, January 15, 1998, pp. B1-B6, in FBIS, March 23, 1998.
60. A former North Korean diplomat, Young-hwan Koh, describes some of the North Korean surveillance mechanisms in his book Wonderland (Seoul: The Institute of North Korean Affairs, 1994), pp. 14-19. Information collected by the ROK government on surveillance in the North Korean military is available in an article entitled "Organization and Role of Military Political Organs, Naewoe T'ongsin, January 15, 1998, pp. B1-B6, in FBIS, March 23, 1998.
61. See, for example, Seung-Yul Oh, "Prospects for Economic Reforms in North Korea and Policy Recommendations," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 133-51; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996."
62. See, for example, Seung-Yul Oh, "Prospects for Economic Reforms in North Korea and Policy Recommendations," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 133-51; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996."
63. Nicholas Eberstadt, "The DPRK as an Economy under Multiple Severe Stresses."
64. Yuri V. Vanin, "North Korea: Hard March," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 43-64.
65. Seung-Yul Oh, "Prospects for Economic Reforms in North Korea and Policy Recommendations"; Jianming Zhou and Lingyi Wang, "Still Stable Korean-type of Socialism," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 7-23.
66. Seung-Yul Oh, "Prospects for Economic Reforms in North Korea and Policy Recommendations"; Jianming Zhou and Lingyi Wang, "Still Stable Korean-type of Socialism," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 7-23.
67. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
68. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
69. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
70. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
71. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
72. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
73. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
74. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
75. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
76. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for
77. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
78. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
79. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
80. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
81. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
82. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
83. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
84. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
85. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
86. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
87. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
88. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
89. The following articles have predicted muddling through or gradual decline but no imminent collapse: Yong-Kyun Cho, "Strategies for Economic Reform in North Korea," discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS), July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Chin-wee Chung and Seoksoo Lee, "Kim Jong Il Regime and the Structure of Crisis: Its Sources, Management, and Manifestation," in Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, ed. Chun-in Moon (Seoul: Yonsei University Press, 1998), pp. 143-66; Heung-yul Do, "North Korea: Teetering on the Edge?" Korea Focus 4:4, 1996, pp. 47-55 (originally published in Saemulgyol [New waves], July 1996); Selig Harrison, "Promoting a Soft Landing in Korea"; In Duk Kang, "Growing Political Crisis in North Korea: Its Power Structure and the Prospects," East Asian Review 9:2 (Summer 1997), pp. 3-17; Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime"; Sung Chull Kim, "Adaptive Process of the North Korean Political System in Times of Regime Crisis"; Taewoo Kim, "Managing North Korea"; B. C. Koh, "American Perspectives on Regime Dynamics in North Korea," in Chung-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 79-112; Jae-keun Lee, "Challenging Predictions of North Korea's Implosion," Korea Focus 5:1 (Jan-Feb, 1997), pp. 33-40 (originally published in Monthly Dongwha, December 1996); Wanbom Lee, "Prospects of Changes"; Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown (May 1997), Policy Report of the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), Washington, D.C.; Young Namkoong, "Trends and Prospects of the North Korean Economy," Korea and World Affairs 20:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 219-35; Larry A. Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea; Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," Foreign Affairs 76:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 105-118; Chin Pak, "Prospects for Economic Policy Changes for Survival," T'ongil Kyongje (September 1997), pp. 28-36, in FBIS, November 20, 1997; Han S. Park, "Human Needs, Human Rights, and Regime Legitimacy: The North Korean Anomaly," in Chun-in Moon, Understanding Regime Dynamics in North Korea, pp. 221-236; Robert A. Scalapino, "The Challenges Ahead," in The U.S. and the Two Koreas, ed. Tong Whan Park (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1998), pp. 15-42; Toshimitsu Shigemura, "There Will Be No 'Contingency' Situation on the Korean Peninsula," Chuo Koron (Tokyo), July 1996, pp. 92-101, in FBIS, June 24, 1996, pp. 26-34; Bum Jik Yang, "The Problem of Power Succession and Possible Changes in Economic Policy in North Korea," East Asian Review 8:2 (Summer 1996), pp. 58-73; Ho-Yeol P Yoo, "DPRK Policy toward South Korea and the Prospects of Reconciliation," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 153-73.
90. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
91. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
92. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
93. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
94. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
95. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
96. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
97. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
98. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
99. The following have predicted near-term collapse: Nicholas Eberstadt, "Hastening Korean Reunification," Foreign Affairs 76:2, 1997, pp. 77-92; Kook-Chin Kim, Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: A Korean View, discussion paper, conference arranged by The Brookings Institution and IFANS, July 9-10, 1997, Washington, D.C.; Moon-Young Huh, "The Stability and Durability of the Kim Jong-il Regime," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 65-81; Young-Yoon Kim, "The North Korean Economic Crisis and Our Policies," ibid., pp. 111-131; Choon Kun Lee, "Outlook for North Korea in 1996: Survival or Collapse"; Young-Ho Park, "Political Change in North Korea"; Takashi Sakai, "The Present Situation and the Prospect of North Korean Ideology," Korean Journal of National Unification 5 (1996), pp. 25-42; Young-dae Song, "Changes in North Korea and How to Respond," Korea Focus 5:1 (January-February 1997), pp. 22-32; Jae-jean Suh, "Social Changes in North Korea and the Stability of Kim Jong-il Regime," Korea Focus 5:4 (July-August 1997), pp. 51-62; Jin Young Suh, "North Korea's Political Crisis."
100. See Pan Suk Kim, "Prospects for Change of the North Korean Regime," survey results on p. 155.
101. Tae Hwan Ok and Soo Am Kim, The Initial Phase of Unified Korea (Seoul: Korea Institute for National Unification [KINU], 1998), Abstract 97-2.
102. See Larry Niksch, U.S. Policy Towards North Korea.
103. Writing in 1984 of the muddling through policies so long pursued by Soviet leaders, Blair A. Ruble remarked that "Difficult adjustments by the [Soviet] citizenry may have to be made, but in economic matters, the Soviet threshold of pain is, like the sloth's, far higher than we might expect." Blair A. Ruble, "Muddling Through," in The Soviet Polity in the Modern Era, ed. Erik P. Hoffmann and Robbin F. Laird (New York: Aldine Publishing Company, 1984), pp. 903-14, quote from pp. 912-13.
104. Robert A. Manning, Averting a Korean Meltdown, quote from p. 4.
105. Marcus Noland, "Why North Korea Will Muddle Through," p. 106.
106. See John Pomfret, "Congressional Aides Report High Hunger Toll in North Korea."