Current-account reversals in developing countries: The role of fundamentals

Open Economies Review

Volumn 10, Issue 2, 1999, Pages 143-163

  Bagnai, Alberto ^a   Manzocchi, Stefano ^b  

^a SAPIENZA UNIVERSITY OF ROME   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF PERUGIA   (Italy)

Author keywords

Current account dynamics; Developing countries; Panel data; Structural breaks; Unit roots

Indexed keywords

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS; DEVELOPING WORLD; ECONOMIC CONDITIONS;

EID: 0032839149     PISSN: 09237992     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1023/A:1008365318228     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Andrews, D.W.K. (1993) "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point." Econometrica 61, 821-856.
2. Bagnai, A. and S. Manzocchi (1996) "Unit Root Tests of Capital Mobility in the Less Developed Countries." Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 132, 544-557.
3. Banerjee, A., R.L. Lumsdaine, and J.H. Stock (1992) "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10, 271-287.
4. Calvo, G. and E. Mendoza (1996) "Mexico's Balance of Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of a Death Foretold." Journal of International Economics 41, 235-264.
5. Campbell, J.Y. and P. Perron (1991) "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots." NBER Macroeconomics Annuals 6, 141-200.
6. Chow, G.C. (1960) "Tests of Equality between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions." Econometrica 28, 591-605.
7. Chu, C.-S.J. and H. White (1992) "A Direct Test for Changing Trend." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10, 289-299.
8. Coakley, J., F. Kulasi, and R. Smith (1996) "Current Account Solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle." Economic Journal 106, 620-627.
9. Corbo, V. and L. Hernandez (1996) "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience." World Bank Economic Review 11, 61-85.
10. Debelle, G. and H. Faruqee (1996) "What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach." IMF Working Paper 96/58, Washington.
11. Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and E. Detragiache (1997) "The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence from Developing Countries." IMF Working Paper 97/106, Washington.
12. Dickey, D. and W. Fuller (1981) "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root." Econometrica 49, 1057-1072.
13. Dolado, J.J., T. Jenkinson, and S. Sosvilla-Rivero (1990) "Cointegration and Unit Roots." Journal of Economic Surveys 4, 249-273.
14. Dornbusch, R. and A. Werner (1994) "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform and No Growth." Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1, 253-298.
15. Eichengreen, B., A. Rose, and C. Wyplosz (1995) "Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermath of Speculative Attacks." Economic Policy 21, 251-312.
16. Elliott, G. and A. Fatàs (1996) "International Business Cycles and the Dynamics of the Current Account." European Economic Review 40, 361-388.
17. Fischer, S. and J. Frenkel (1974) "Economic Growth and Stages in the Balance of Payments." In G. Horwich and P. Samuelson (eds.), Trade, Stability and Macroeconomics. New York: Academic Press, pp. 503-521.
18. Frankel, J. and A. Rose (1996) "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment." Journal of International Economics 41, 351-366.
19. Ghosh, A. and J. Ostry (1995) "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach." World Bank Economic Review 9, 305-333.
20. Glick, R. and K. Rogoff (1995) "Global versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account." Journal of Monetary Economics 35, 159-192.
21. Gundlach, E. and S. Sinn (1992) "Unit Root Tests of the Current Account Balance: Implications for International Capital Mobility." Applied Economics 24, 617-625.
22. Hausman, J.A. (1978) "Specification Tests in Econometrics." Econometrica 46, 1251-1271.
23. Higgins, M. and J.G. Williamson (1996) "Asian Demography and Foreign Capital Dependence." NBER Working Paper No. 5560, Cambridge, MA.
24. Hsiao, C. (1986) Analysis of Panel Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
25. International Monetary Fund (1996) "Reinvigorating Growth in Developing Countries. Lessons from Adjustment Policies in Eight Economies." IMF Occasional Paper No. 139, Washington.
26. Mankiw, N.G., D. Romer, and D.N. Weil (1992) "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth." Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 407-437.
27. Manzocchi, S. and P. Martin (1996) "Are Capital Flows Consistent with the Neoclassical Growth Model? Evidence from a Cross-Section of Developing Countries." CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1400, London.
28. Milesi-Ferretti, G.M. and A. Razin (1997) "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis." NBER Working Paper No. 6310, Cambridge, MA.
29. Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (1996) Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.
30. Pagan, A.R. and A.D. Hall (1983) "Diagnostic Tests as Residual Analysis." Econometric Reviews 2, 159-218.
31. Perron, P. (1989) "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis." Econometrica 57, 1361-1401.
32. Santaella, J. (1996) "Stylized Facts Before IMF-Supported Macroeconomic Adjustment." IMF Staff Papers 43, 502-544.
33. Sawada, Y. (1994) "Are the Heavily Indebted Countries Solvent?: Tests of Intertemporal Borrowing Constraints." Journal of Development Economics 45, 325-337.
34. Stock, J.H. (1994) "Unit Roots, Structural Breaks and Trends." In R.F. Engle and D.L. McFadden (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics. Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp. 2740-2841.
35. Wu., J.-L., S. Fountas, and S.-L. Chen (1996) "Testing the Sustainability of the Current Account Deficit in Two Industrial Countries." Economics Letters 52, 193-198.
36. Zivot, E. and D.W.K. Andrews (1992) "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10, 251-270.