The influence of climate change on the distribution of indigenous forest in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 26, Issue 3, 1999, Pages 595-617

  Eeley, Harriet A C ^a   Lawes, Michael J ^a   Piper, Steven E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NATAL PIETERMARITZBURG   (South Africa)

Author keywords

Bioclimatic models; Climate change; Distribution; Indigenous forest; South Africa

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; FOREST; PALEOCLIMATE; PHYTOGEOGRAPHY;

SOUTH AFRICA;

EID: 0032711475     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2699.1999.00307.x     Document Type: Article

References (87)

1. Arc/Info. (1996) Cell-based modelling with GRID. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., Redlands, U.S.A.
2. Bews, J. W. (1912) The vegetation of Natal. Ann. Natal Mus, 2, 253-331.
3. Bews, J. W. (1913) An occological survey of the Midlands of Natal, with special reference to the Pietermaritzburg district. Ann, Natal Mus, 2, 485-543.
4. Bews, J. W. (1917) The plant ecology of the Drakensberg range. Ann. Natal Mus, 3, 511-565.
5. Bews, J. W. (1920) Plant ecology of the coast belt of Natal. Ann. Natal Mus, 4, 367-470.
6. Bond, W. J. (1997) Fire. Vegetation of southern Africa (ed. by R. M. Cowling, D. M. Richardson and S. M. Pierce), pp. 421-446. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
7. Box, E. O. (1981) Macroclimate and plant forms: an introduction to predictive modelling in phytogeography, 258 pp. Junk, The Hague.
8. Busby, J. R. (1986) A biogeoclimatic analysis of Northofagus cunninghamii (Hook.) Oerst. in southeastern Australia. Aust. J. Ecol, 11, 1-7.
9. Busby, J. R. (1988) Potential impacts of climate change on Australia's flora and fauna. Greenhouse: planning for climate change (ed. by G. I. Pearman), pp. 387-398. CSIRO, Melbourne.
10. Busby, J. R. (1991) BIOCLIM: A bioclimatic analysis and prediction system. Nature conservation: cost effective biological surveys and data analysis (ed. by C. R. Margules and M. P. Austin), pp. 64-68. CSIRO, Australia.
11. Carpenter, G., Gillison, A. N. & Winter J. (1993) DOMAIN: a flexible modelling procedure for mapping potential distributions of plants and animals. Biodiv. Conserv, 2, 667-680.
12. Cawe, S. G. (1994) Rainfall and vegetation patterns in Transkei and environs. S. Afr. J. Sci, 90, 79-85.
13. Cooper, K. H. (1985) The conservation status of indigenous forests in Transvaal, Natal and O.F.S., South Africa, 108 pp. Wildlife Society of South Africa, Durban.
14. Cooper, K. H. & Swart, W. (1992) Transkei Forest Survey, 96 pp. Wildlife Society of South Africa, Durban.
15. CSIR. (1993) The effect of global change on forestry in South Africa, 26 pp. CSIR, Pretoria.
16. CSIR. (1995) Update of National forestry coverage map, 14 pp. CSIR, Pretoria.
17. Dale, V. H. & Rauscher, H. M. (1994) Assessing impacts of climate change on forests: the state of biological modelling. Clim. Change 28, 65-90.
18. Deacon, H. J. (1983) Another look at the Pleistocene climates of South Africa. S. Afr. J. Sci, 79, 325-328.
19. Deacon, J. & Lancaster, N. (1988) Late Quaternary palaeoenvironments of southern Africa, 225 pp. Clarendon Press, Oxford.
20. Deacon, J., Lancaster, N. & Scott L. (1984) Evidence for Late Quaternary climatic change in southern Africa: summary of the proceedings of the SASQUA workshop held in Johannesburg, September 1983. Late Cainozoic palaeoclimates of the southern Hemisphere (ed. by J. C. Vogel), pp. 391-404. Balkema, Rotterdam.
21. Dent, M. C., Lynch, S. D. & Schulze R. E. (1989) Mapping mean annual and other rainfall statistics over southern Africa, 230 pp. WRC Report 109/1/89. Water Research Council, Pretoria.
22. Edwards, D. (1967) A plant ecological survey of the Tugela River Basin. Mem. Bot. Surv. S. Afr, 36, 1-285.
23. Fourcade, H. G. (1889) Report on the Natal forests, 197 pp. W. Watson, Pietermaritzburg.
24. Gates, D. M. (1993) Climate change and its biological consequences, 280 pp. Sinauer Associates, Inc., Sunderland.
25. Geldenhuys, C. J. ed. (1989) Biogeography of the mixed evergreen forests of southern Africa. Ecosystems Programmes Occasional Report no. 45. FRD, Pretoria.
26. Geldenhuys, C. J. (1994) Bergwind fires and the location of forest patches in the southern Cape landscape, South Africa. J. Biogeogr, 21, 49-62.
27. Geldenhuys, C. J. & MacDevette, D. R. (1989) Conservation status of coastal and montane evergreen forest. Biotic diversity in southern Africa: concepts and conservation (ed. by B. J. Huntley), pp. 224-238. Oxford University Press, Cape Town.
28. 2 and climate change affect forests. Bioscience, 40, 575-587.
29. Grainger, J. E. de (1984) Fire in forest. Ecological effects of fire in South African ecosystems (ed. by P. V. Booysen and N. M. Tainton), pp. 177-197. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
30. Hamilton, A. C. (1976) The significance of patterns of distribution shown by forest plants and animals in tropical Africa for the reconstruction of upper Pleistocene palaeoenvironments, a review. Palaeoecol. Afr, 9, 63-97.
31. Hamilton, A. C. (1981) The Quaternary history of African forests: its relevance to conservation. Afr. J. Ecol, 19, 1-6.
32. Hamilton, A. C. & Taylor, D. (1991) History of climate and forests in tropical Africa during the last 8 million years. Clim. Change, 19, 65-78.
33. Harrison, S. P. & Foley, J. A. (1995) General circulation models, climate change and ecological impact studies. Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species: environmental context (ed. by J. C. Pernetta, R. Leemans, D. Endler and S. Humphrey), pp. 9-25. IUCN, Gland.
34. 18O variations derived from groundwater near Uitenhage, South Africa. Quat. Res, 25, 79-88.
35. Hengeveld, R. (1995) Species response to climate change. Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species: environmental context (ed. by J. C. Pernetta, R. Leemans, D. Endler and S. Humphrey), pp. 27-42. IUCN, Gland.
36. Hill, R. S., Read, J. & Busby J. R. (1988) The temperature-dependence of photosynthesis of some Australian temperate rainforest trees and its biogeographical significance. J. Biogeogr, 15, 431-449.
37. Hulme, M., (ed.) (1996) Climate change and southern Africa: an exploration of some potential impacts and implications in the SADC region. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich.
38. Hulme, M., Conway, D., Kelly, P. M., Subak, S. & Down, T. E. (1995) The impacts of climate change on Africa, 46 pp. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm.
39. Huntley, B. J. (1984) Characteristics of South African biomes. Ecological effects of fires in South African ecosystems (ed. by P. V. Boosen and N. M. Tainton), pp. 1-17. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
40. Huntley, B. J. (1995) How vegetation responds to climate change: evidence from palaeovegetation studies. Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species: environmental context (ed. by J. C. Pernetta, R. Leemans, D. Endler and S. Humphrey), pp. 43-63. IUCN, Gland.
41. IPCC. (1991) Climate change. The IPCC response strategies, 272 pp. Island Press, Washington, D.C.
42. IPCC. (1996) Climate change 1995. The science of climate change, 572 pp. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.
43. Joubert, A. M. & Hewitson, B. C. (1997) Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models. Prog. Phys. Geogr, 21, 51-78.
44. King, N. L. (1941) The exploitation of the indigenous forests of South Africa. Jl S. Afr. For. Ass, 6, 26-48.
45. King, L. (1978) A geomorphology of central and southern Africa. Biogeography and ecology of southern Africa. Monographiae Biologicae 31 (ed. by M. J. A. Werger), pp. 1-17. Junk, The Hague.
46. Lawes, M. J. (1990) The distribution of the samango monkey (Cercopithecus mitis erythrarchus Peters, 1852 and Cercopithecus mitis labiatus I. Geoffroy, 1843) and forest history in southern Africa. J. Biogeogr, 17, 669-680.
47. Lawes, M. J., Mealin, P. E. & Piper, S. E. (submitted) Patch occupancy and potential metapopulation dynamics of three rare forest mammals in fragmented Afromontane mist-belt Podocarpus forest in South Africa. Conserv. Biol.
48. Lindenmayer, D. B., Nix, H. A., McMahon, J. P., Hutchinson, M. F. & Tanton, M. T. (1991) The conservation of Leadbeater's possum, Gymnobelideus leadbeateri (MćCoy): a case study of the use of bioclimatic modelling. J. Biogeogr, 18, 371-383.
49. Low, A. B. & Rebelo, A. G. (eds) (1996) Vegetation of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland, 84 pp. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria.
50. MacDevette, D. R., MacDevette, D. K., Gordon, I. G. & Bartholomew, R. L. C. (1989) Floristics of the Natal indigenous forests. Biogeography of the mixed evergreen forests of southern Africa (ed. by C. J. Geldenhuys), pp. 124-145. Ecosystems Programmes Occasional Report no. 45. FRD, Pretoria.
51. Maley, J. (1991) The African rain forest vegetation and palaeoenvironments during the late Quaternary. Clim. Change, 19, 79-98.
52. Meadows, M. E. & Linder, H. P. (1993) A palaeoecological perspective on the origin of Afromontane grasslands. J. Biogeogr, 20, 345-355.
53. Midgley, J. J., Cowling, R. M. & Seydack A. H. W. (1997) Forest. Vegetation of southern Africa (ed. by R. M. Cowling, D. M. Richardson and S. M. Pieree), pp. 278-299. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
54. Moll, E. J. (1978) The vegetation of Maputaland. A preliminary report of the plant commumties and their present and future conservation status. Trees S. Afr, 29, 31-58.
55. Moll, E. J. & White, F. (1978) The Indian Ocean coastal belt. Biogeography and ecology of southern Africa. Monographiae Biologicae 31 (ed. by M. J. A. Werger), pp. 561-598. Junk, The Hague.
56. Moreau, R. E. (1963) Vicissitudes of the African biomes in the late Pleistocene. Proc. Zool. Soc. Lond, 141, 395-421.
57. Nix, H. (1986) A biogeographic analysis of Australian elapid snakes. Snakes. Atlas of elapid snakes of Australia (ed. by R. Longmore), pp. 4-15. Bureau of Flora and Fauna, Canberra.
58. Oatley, T. B. (1989) Biogeography of the forest avifauna in South Africa. Biogeography of the mixed evergreen forests of southern Africa, (ed. by C. J. Geldenhuys), pp. 48-59. Ecosystems Programmes Occasional Report no. 45. FRD, Pretoria.
59. Oschadleus, H. D., Vogel, J. C. & Scott L. (1996) Radiometric date for the Port Durnford peat and development of yellow-wood forest along the South African east coast. S. Afr. J. Sci, 92, 43-45.
60. Partridge, T. C. (1997) Cainozoic environmental change in southern Africa, with special reference on the last 200,000 years. Prog. Phys. Geogr, 21, 3-22.
61. Partridge, T. C., Avery, D. M., Botha, G. A., Brink, J. S., Deacon, J., Herbert, R. S., Maud, R. R., Scholtz, A., Scott, L., Talma, A. S. & Vogel, J. C. (1990) Late Pleistocene and Holocene climatic change in southern Africa. S. Afr. J. Sci, 86, 302-306.
62. du Pisani, A. L. & Partridge, T. C. (1990) Effects of global warming on crop production in South Africa. S. Afr. J. Sci, 86, 306-311.
63. Prell, W. L., Hutson, W. H., Williams, D. F., Bé, A. W. H., Geitzenauer, K. & Molfino, B. (1980) Surface circulation of the Indian Ocean during the last glacial maximum, approximately 18,000 yr. B.P. Quat. Res, 14, 309-336.
64. Prentice, I. C. (1992) Climate change and long-term vegetation dynamics. Plant succession: theory and prediction (ed. by D. C. Glenn-Lewin, R. K. Peet and T. T. Veblen), pp. 293-339. Chapman & Hall, London.
65. Prentice, I. C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S. P., Leeman, R., Monserud, R. A. & Soloman, A. M. (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. J. Biogeogr, 19, 117-134.
66. Reitz, D. (1938) The forests of northern Zululand. Jl. S. Afr. For. Ass, 1, 28-29.
67. Rutherford, M. C. & Westfall, R. H. (1994) Biomes of Southern Africa: an objective categorization. Mem. Bot. Surv. S. Afr, 63, 1-94.
68. Schulze, R. E. (1982) Agrohydrology and climatology of Natal, 136 pp. Water Research Commission, Pretoria.
69. Schulze, R. E. (1997) South African atlas of agrohydrology and climatology, 276 pp. Water Research Commission, Pretoria.
70. Schulze, R. E. & McGee, O. S. (1978) Climatic indices and classifications in relation to the biogeography of southern Africa. Biogeography and ecology of southern Africa. Monographiae Biologicae 31 (ed. by M. J. A. Werger), pp. 19-52. Junk, The Hague.
71. Scott, L. (1982) Pollen analysis of late Cainozoic deposits in the Transvaal, South Africa, and their bearing on palaeoenvironments. Palaeoecology, 15, 101-107.
72. Scott, L. (1984) Palynological evidence for Quaternary palaeoenvironments in southern Africa. Southern African prehistory and palaeoenvironments (ed. by R. G. Klein), pp. 65-80. Balkema, Rotterdam.
73. Sokal, R. R. & Sneath, P. H. (1963) Principals of numerical taxonomy, 359 pp. W.H. Freeman, San Francisco.
74. 18O, Stampriet aquifer, Namibia. Proceedings of International Symposium on Isotope Techniques in the Study of Past and Current Environmental Changes in the Hydrosphere and the Atmosphere, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna.
75. Talma, A. S. & Vogel, J. C. (1992) Late Quaternary palaeotemperatures derived from a speleotherm from Cango Caves, Cape Province, South Africa. Qnat. Res, 37, 203-213.
76. Taylor, D. & Hamilton, A. (1994) Impact of climate change on tropical forests in Africa: implications for protected area planning and management. Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species: implications for protected areas (ed. by J. C. Pernetta, R. Leemans, D. Endler and S. Humphrey), pp. 77-94. IUCN, Gland.
77. Tyson, P. D. (1986) Climatic change and variability in southern Africa, 220 pp. Oxford University Press, Cape Town.
78. Tyson, P. D. (1990) Modelling climatic change in southern Africa: a review of available methods. S. Afr. J. Sci, 86, 318-330.
79. Van Wyk, A. E. (1989) Floristics of the Natal/Pondoland sandstone forests. Biogeography of the mixed evergreen forests of southern Africa (ed. by C. J. Geldenhuys), pp. 145-157. Ecosystems Programmes Occasional Report no. 45. FRD, Pretoria.
80. Van Zinderen Bakker, E. M. (1978) Quaternary vegetation changes in southern Africa. Biogeography and ecology of southern Africa. Monographiae Biologicae 31 (ed. by M. J. A. Werger). Junk, The Hague.
81. Van Zinderen Bakker, E. M. (1982) African Palaeoenvironments 18,000 yrs BP. Palaeoecol. Afr, 15, 77-99.
82. Walker, P. A. & Cocks, K. D. (1991) HABITAT: a procedure for modelling a disjoint environmental envelope for a plant or animal species. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. Letts, 1, 108-118.
83. White, F. (1978) The Afromontane region. Biogeography and ecology of southern Africa. Monographiae Biologicae 31 (ed. by M. J. A. Werger), pp. 463-560. Junk, The Hague.
84. White, F. (1981) The history of the Afromontane archipelago and the scientific need for its conservation. Afr. J. Ecol, 19, 33-54.
85. Woodward, F. I. (1987) Climate and plant distribution, 174 pp. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
86. Woodward, F. I. & Williams, B. G. (1987) Climate and plant distribution at global and local scales. Vegetatio, 69, 189-197.
87. van der Zel, D. W. (1988) A forest map of southern Africa with the aid of LANDSAT imagery, 78 pp. CSIR, Pretoria.