Integration and decision support systems for energy policy management and comparative assessment studies

International Journal of Global Energy Issues

Volumn 12, Issue 1-6, 1998, Pages 33-59

  Gheorghe, Adrian V ^a  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Decision support systems; Energy modelling; Indicators; Sustainability

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; COMPUTER SOFTWARE; DECISION MAKING; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; ENERGY MANAGEMENT; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT;

ENERGY INDICATORS; ENERGY POLICY MANAGEMENT;

ENERGY POLICY;

EID: 0032665562     PISSN: 09547118     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1504/ijgei.1999.000832     Document Type: Review

References (62)

1. An energy system could never be brand new. One has to build on the previous energy technologies new infrastructures to meet the growing needs of the consumers. Old technologies do co-exist for a period of time while the system looks coherent enough under given technical and economical constraints. The energy system has an internal clock and technologies do experience a complex substitution process over a span of time. The complexity index for the energy system involves certain reliability, availability, and safety figures which have to be met in order for the system to maintain operation and be viable at the interface with the consumer.
2. It is evident that the time dimension of an energy development or involution is a primary characteristic. It has a very relevant weight in the overall judgement of strategies, policies, and success.
3. It seems strange to a 'rational' decision maker when an energy consumer does not totally react as it was agreed, planned, or asked that he do. Sometimes, the consumers do not sustain enough of a conservation policy effort to decrease, for instance, oil consumption as requested by the social planners. They (consumers) manage to bypass the regulations, to afford paying for a higher price structure for the energy consumed, and in the beginning, are less motivated to modernize and seek robust engineering solutions to decrease national energy consumption. Consumers always find ways to fulfil their energy needs (including electricity) in accordance with their preconceived image of that needs.
4. Very often the energy problem is closely related to the concepts of national security and independence. Governments and/or large scale utilities pay a great deal of attention to planning for future energy strategies.
5. Even if energy resources were abundant, the investment of capital cost requires a careful analysis for each possible energy scenario. At the time a decision is taken to develop a certain technology, the capital cost estimation looks different from the time of actual implementation. This is true regardless of the value of the project (e.g. discounted costs for energy projects).
6. The consumer is directly dependent upon the energy supply system with a special emphasis on electrical power. Socio-economic development relations and risk perception problems are potential 'noises' in the relationship between consumption and supply.
7. Environmental effects could have a lag time before becoming manifest, and eventually irreversibly deteriorate the surroundings (e.g. greenhouse effect, acid rain).
8. Even if computer programmes are available, they rarely enable the inexperienced user to become skilful in using the approach.
9. E.g. within the PSI and ETH environment
10. Swiss project on comparative assessment of energy systems.
11. recently initiated by VSE.
12. Centre of Excellence on Risk and Safety Sciences
13. See the DECADES programme of IAEA and other international organizations.
14. The two aspects (if one desires to consider both of them) should be separately treated, also it would be more efficient to document results of e.g. GaBE from the beginning into a comprehensive database. If already such independent databases exist, efforts should be put to design appropriate interfaces (e.g. graphical user interfaces) in order to assist scientists from one side and 'actors', from the other side. This is a decision point in the decision making process whereby one has to decide on a narrow or a large approach, short vs. long term horizon, etc. Such databases should also include toxicological data and information, dose-response models, additionally to the existing technical, economical and environmental characteristics of technology as well as energy systems (e.g. energy mixes).
15. The present seven scenarios of VSE could be exercised from the decision analysis point of view.
16. See Section 9 which describes present DSS for energy modelling.
17. One has to make a clear distinction between Dialogue process and Decision Conferencing (they are aiming at reaching a decision).
18. For instance, for the objective 'minimize hazardous potential' the associated criterion is 'hazardous potential' and the preference is for minimization.
19. Systems analysis captures the interactions and dynamic behaviour of complex situations.
20. Statistical decision theory is concerned with logical decisions in simple, uncertain situations.
21. Decision analysis treats uncertainty by encoding informed judgement in the form of probability assignments to events and variables.
22. The decision maker must elicit each of the three elements from the decision maker.
23. This is achieved by using sensitivity analysis and value of information calculations.
24. Beroggi and Wallace (1995) Computer Supported Risk Management, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht.
25. Paruccini, M. (1993) Applying Multiple Criteria Aid for Decision to Environmental Management, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht.
26. Management system (structuring the alternatives), an information management system (databases, knowledge bases, GIS, user interfaces, scenario construction or alternative generation module).
27. E.g. as decision aid or decision making tools.
28. E.g. risk and environmental management, emergency management and preparedness, etc.
29. Maintainability of energy systems, Reliability centred maintenance for nuclear power plants.
30. Strategic electricity/energy system development.
31. For an energy - environment multicriteria DSS, criteria used are e.g. consequences to humans, consequences to the environment, economic consequences, social consequences.
32. Suitable indicators can often be found with user participation.
33. Decision analysis tools are considered often as specialized and in depth instruments which are aiming in assisting the decision making process.
34. Decision analysis applications often use generic modelling software such as spreadsheets, statistics packages, and financial modelling languages. Specialized software is also available for modelling decision problems using decision trees, influence diagrams, belief networks, multi-attribute utility functions, hierarchical value structures, Monte Carlo simulation, and multi-criteria optimization.
35. Salo, A.A. and Hamalainen, R.P. (1992) 'Preference assessment by imprecise ratio statements', Operations Research, 40, 6, pp. 1053-1061.
36. Each entry on this list contains information about features of the software and contact information. Pricing information includes the date the price was last updated as this information may vary from time to time.
37. Implements belief networks, graphical user interface. A free demo version is available from the developers.
38. A simple program implementing decision trees. (The developers are adding an influence diagram interface.) Offers features like sensitivity analysis, threshold analysis, cost-effectiveness calculations, recursive Markov processes, and Monte Carlo simulation.
39. DEcision MOdeling System, soon to be called Analytica
40. A complete and powerful package implementing both decision trees and influence diagrams. Three versions are available: standard, advanced, and developer, at different prices. A demo version (does not save models) is available from the developers. Academic editions (reduced speed versions for students and faculty only) of DPL are sold through ITP Warehouse: Duxbury Press, 1(800)354-9706.
41. See papers on probability from Gheorghe and Seiler, eds. (1996) Was is Wahrscheinlichkeit, Vdf, Zurich.
42. See the relevant work done by Uhrig and its research team, at the University of Knoxville, USA.
43. EU (1992) International Chernobyl Project - input from the Commission of the European Communities to the Evaluation of the Relocation Policy adopted by the former Soviet Union, Report EUR 14543 EN, Commission of the European Communities.
44. Gheorghe, Nicolet-Monnier (1995) Integrated Regional Risk Assessment, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht.
45. Detailed work is currently going on within GaBE (e.g. LCA) in order to identify new indicators at various levels of system complexity.
46. Such indicators could be obtained for energy systems, from LCA studies or environmental impact assessment.
47. E.g. BEW or VSE system of indicators
48. Dialogue process could assist the effort if choosing a proper indicator system.
49. E.g. it could be the case of a weak definition of energy sustainable systems.
50. There is a need of a proper ethic when managing indicators in a planning process.
51. Paun, Gh. (1983) 'An Impossibility Theorem for Indicators Aggregation', in Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 9, pp. 205-210.
52. Gheorghe, A. (1990) 'Energy Management' in Encyclopedia of Microcomputers, Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York.
53. Natural disasters are considered as very complex phenomena that demand interrelations among geologists, civil engineers, geographers, planners, sociologists, and many others. Because of the complex nature of the interrelations among all the different components of these types of problems, IPDSS is proposed as a framework for the development of an overall plan. IPDSS assesses geological hazards, vulnerability, and risks to configure a land use suitability zoning model for urban planning based on a weighted average of many factors. To obtain this, the purpose and scope of the study had to include sufficient information to prepare comprehensive maps and descriptive analyses concerning the environmental and engineering characteristics of projected urban areas.
54. IPDSS Structure: The interactive dialogue sub system and the display and interactive use components are particular critical for the effective use of the IPDSS since they provide the interaction between user and machine. These features isolate the user from the technicalities of the computer and foster a dialogue based on the user's judgements, rather than imposing the hardware engineer's or computer programmer's discipline upon the user. These models of interaction permit a quick, low-cost examination of alternative solutions as well as the capability to modify assumptions and vary decision criteria. Moreover, the IPDSS menu-driven approach was designed for users without a strong computer background. What the user needs to provide is the capability to direct the flow of information and modelling effort towards a desired goal. This creates a framework where the user creates individual applications and results using IPDSS functionality, but does not have to write the functions. A solution approach to a complex environmental problem is handled by IPDSS through its main components: Data management subsystem (DMS), Model management subsystem (MMS), and Graphical User Interface.
55. IPDSS Main Components: DMS involves data collection, data transformation, map editions, and display. DMS is controlled using GIS tools. The DMS consists of a directory or mapset that stores vast quantities of land use and hazard-evaluation-oriented data, derived from national, state, and local sources and, to a lesser degree, from new field work. The files include data on geology, geomorphology, human settlement, lifelines, land-cover, seismicity, geotechnical properties, and additional files that the user might consider necessary and be able to obtain. MMS deals with the data analysis models subsystem implemented using C programming supported by data from DMS. MMS is being developed to emulate current analysis and optimization procedures and can perform numerical modelling tasks and present the results. While GRASS within the DMS provides a suitable environment for the representation and analysis of the spatial structure, MMS is designed to capture the cited behaviour, including the database and model-base management capabilities needed to construct, manipulate, modify, analyse, and query data and models. IPDSS has been designed to expedite land-use planning modelling with direct access to DMS and MMS using scientific visualization principles and the graphic user interface (GUI), which allows the user to modify the digital model and emulate the geographic environment under study. The GUI is defined as a combination of window, menu, and icon selections designed to guide the user quickly and easily through the program. The GUI allows the dynamic coupling of existing models from the MMS to the DMS, so that the GIS itself acts as a database source to the controlling program. GUI tools provide the user with complete control over the environment in a way not possible in the traditional geo-relational system. And, in this form, the GUI provides the ability to set up a more realistic and effective modeling environment than those that have been possible through simple GIS application. This feature provides the flexibility to interact with the user where the need for the interaction reduces the effort currently demanded by a single application. The IPDSS interface is assembled in such a way that the analyst always has the impression that he/she is interacting with a single and coherent system.
56. Hughes, R. et al., (1996) 'A knowledge-based decision support system for combined heat and power (CHP) investment appraisal and plant selection', Proc. Instn Mech Engrs, Vol. 210.
57. Hamalainen, R. et al., (1995) 'Spontaneous decision conferencing in parliamentary negotiations', in Proceedings of the 28th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.
58. Tzeng, G.H. et al., (1992) 'Application of multicritêria decision making to the evaluation of new energy system development in Taiwan', Energy, Vol. 17, No. 10.
59. Hamalainen, R. et al.., (1992) 'Decision support for risk analysis in energy policy', in European Journal of Operation Research, 56, pp. 172-183.
60. Hamalainen, R. (1988) 'Computer assisted energy policy analysis in the parliament of Finland', in Interfaces 18, July-August.
61. Global climate change is an environmental issue with important strategic ramifications for the electric utility industry. Although no mandatory greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions control programs now exist, many utilities in USA have decided to participate in voluntary emissions reduction and reporting efforts under the Department of Energy's Climate Challenge program and the Energy Policy Act of 1992. Given uncertainty about possible future regulation and the potentially huge stakes of such regulation, utilities are increasingly taking GHG emissions into account in planning for the future. EPRI is developing a set of decision tools to help utilities in this effort. One of these products is a greenhouse gas accounting framework.
62. EPRI has stepped up efforts to provide its members with tools to help identify cost-effective GHG strategies for use in short- and long-term planning.