On the use of probabilistic and deterministic methods in risk analysis

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries

Volumn 12, Issue 5, 1999, Pages 399-419

  Kirchsteiger, Christian ^a  

^a JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

Author keywords

Deterministic methods; Hazard analysis; PRA; Probabilistic methods; QRA; Risk analysis; Systems analysis

Indexed keywords

ACCIDENT PREVENTION; CHAOS THEORY; COST EFFECTIVENESS; PROBABILITY;

DETERMINISTIC METHODS;

RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 0032655011     PISSN: 09504230     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0950-4230(99)00012-1     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. American Institute of Chemical Engineers. (1989). Guidelines for chemical process quantitative risk analysis. New York: Center for Chemical Process Safety, American Institute of Chemical Engineers.
2. Anon. (1998). Slovakia's East-West nuclear power plant moving into trial operation. Nuclear Europe Worldscan, 7-8, 94.
3. Apostolakis G. The concept of probability in safety assessment of technological systems. Science. 50:1990;1359-1366.
4. Berg, H. P., Fröhmel, T., Görtz, R., & Schott, H. (1994). The role of PSA in the German regulatory process. In Proceedings of PSA/PRA and Severe Accidents '94 (pp. 197-204). European Nuclear Society, Nuclear Society of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 17-20 April 1994.
5. Berg, H. P., & Kafka, P. (1997). Developments and practice towards risk based regulations in various technologies. Advances in safety and reliability (pp. 15-26). Oxford: Elsevier Science Ltd.
6. Blix, H. (1997). Energy and global sustainable development. Lecture given at Uranium Institute's 22nd Annual Symposium, 4 September 1997, London.
7. Bottelberghs, P. H. (1995). QRA in the Netherlands. Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment, The Netherlands, paper presented in the Safety Cases conference, London.
8. Carter, D. A. (1994). Consideration of offsite risk reduction measures by quantified risk assessment. VDGAB/AIIT Forum, Wiesbaden, 29 September.
9. Christou, M. (1998). Land-use planning. In C. Kirchsteiger, Risk assessment and management in the context of the "Seveso II Directive". Oxford: Elsevier Science Ltd.
10. Collins, R. J., & Thompson, R. (1997). Systemic failure modes: a model for Perrow's normal accidents in complex, safety critical systems. Advances in safety and reliability (pp. 357-364). Oxford: Elsevier Science Ltd.
11. Cox, T. (1998). Risk integration and decision-making. In C. Kirchsteiger, Risk assessment and management in the context of the "Seveso II Directive". Oxford: Elsevier Science Ltd.
12. Davison, M. (1998). Understanding risk management: a review of the literature and industry practice. In Proceedings of ESA Risk Management Workshop, Noordwijk (pp. 253-256). European Space Agency, ESA-ESTEC.
13. Dooley J.J. Unintended consequences: energy R&D in a deregulated energy market. Energy Policy. 26(7):1998;547-555.
14. Drogaris G. Learning from major accidents involving dangerous substances. Safety Science. 16:1993;89-113.
15. Duffield J.S. Foreword to International trends in major accidents and activities by the European Commission towards accident prevention. Journal of Loss Prevention. 12(1):1999;1.
16. EC. (1996). Council Directive 96/82/EC of 9 December 1996 on the control of major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances. Official Journal of the European Communities, Luxembourg.
17. EEC (1982). Council directive 82/501/EEC of 24 June 1982 on the major accident hazards of certain industrial activities. Official Journal of the European Communities, Luxembourg; and two amendments 3 March 1987 and 7 December 1988.
18. EPS 900 (1990). A probabilistic safety assessment of the standard French 900 MWe pressurised water reactor. CEA/IPSN/DAS/Framatome, April.
19. Fragola, J. R., & Shooman, M. L. (1992). Experience bounds on nuclear plant probabilistic safety assessment. In Proceedings of the Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (pp. 157-165). New York: IEEE.
20. French Ministry of Environment (1990). Maîtrise de l'urbanisation autour des sites industriels à haut risque - Guide (in French).
21. Garrick, J., & Wakefield D. (1995). A progress report on the status of selected applications of probabilistic risk assessment in the US nuclear power industry. In Proceedings of PSA '95 Conference, Seoul (pp. 923-926). KAERI.
22. Gesellschaft für Reaktorsicherheit, Deutsche Risikostudie Kernkraftwerke. (1979). Eine Untersuchung zu dem durch Störfälle in Kernkraftwerken verursachten Risiko. Köln, Germany: Verlag TÜV Rheinland (in German).
23. Gesellschaft für Reaktorsicherheit, Deutsche Risikostudie Kernkraftwerke (1990). Phase B. Köln, Germany: Verlag TÜV Rheinland (in German).
24. Gould, S. J. (1997). Life's grandeur - the spread of excellence from Plato to Darwin. London: Vintage.
25. Governor's Office of Emergency Services (1989). State of California, Risk Management and Prevention Program (RMPP) Guidance. Governor's Office of Emergency Services, June.
26. Grebogi C. Crises, sudden changes in chaotic attractors, and transient chaos. Physica D. 7:1983;181-200.
27. Haastrup P., Funtowicz S. Accident generating systems and chaos: a dynamic study of accident time series. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 35:1992;31-37.
28. Health and Safety Executive (1989). Risk criteria for land-use planning in the vicinity of major industrial hazards.
29. IAEA (1998). Electricity, nuclear power and the global environment, IAEA Factsheet. Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency.
30. IAEA et al. (1993-96). DECADES project on databases and methodologies for the comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. Project jointly carried out by IAEA, EC, ESCAP, IIASA, OECD/NEA, OPEC, UNIDO, WMO and World Bank.
31. Kafka, P. (1998). Observations on risk management policies, focusing on experiences from their implementation and use in the field of nuclear technology. In Proceedings of ESA Risk Management Workshop, Noordwijk (pp. 85-100). European Space Agency, ESA-ESTEC.
32. Kammerer, P. (1919). Das Gesetz der Serie - eine Lehre von den Wiederholungen im Lebens - und im weltgeschehen. Stuttgart/Berlin (in German).
33. Kang, S. J. (1997). Process safety management for chemical accident prevention. In Proceedings of the OECD Workshop on Human Performance in Chemical Process Safety (pp. 295-311). Berlin: Umweltbundesamt.
34. Kang S.J. Trends in major industrial accidents in Korea. Journal of Loss Prevention. 12(1):1999;75-77.
35. Kaplan S., Garrick B.J. On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Analysis. 1:1981;11-27.
36. Kawka N., Kirchsteiger C. Technical note on the contribution of sociotechnical factors to accidents notified to MARS. Journal of Loss Prevention. 12(1):1999;53-57.
37. King, A., & Schneider, B. (1991). The first global revolution: a report by the council of the Club of Rome.
38. Kirchsteiger C. Impact of accident precursors on risk estimates from accident databases. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries. 10(3):1997;159-167.
39. Kirchsteiger, C. (1998a). Risk assessment and risk management as key elements to control major accident hazards in the European Union. In Proceedings of ESA Risk Management Workshop, Noordwijk (pp. 277-282). European Space Agency, ESA-ESTEC.
40. Kirchsteiger, C. (1998b). Event frequency and probability analysis. In C. Kirchsteiger, Risk assessment and management in the context of the "Seveso II Directive". Oxford: Elsevier Science Ltd.
41. Lorenz E. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 20(2):1963;130-141.
42. Lorenz, E. N. (1993). The essence of chaos. London: UCL Press Limited.
43. Mandelbrot, B. (1983). The fractal geometry of nature. New York: W. H. Freeman.
44. Maxey N. Earth's nuclear future: what difference do ethics make? Nuclear Europe Worldscan. 7 8:1998;99-102.
45. Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W. (1972). The limits of growth. Washington, DC: Universe Books.
46. Ministère de l'Environnement (1990). Control of urban development around high-risk industrial sites. Secretary of State to the French Prime Minister for the Environment and the Prevention of major technological and natural risks, Ministère de l'Environnement, DEPPR-Industrial Environment Department.
47. Occupational Safety and Health Administration (1996). Process safety management of highly hazardous chemicals. US Federal Register 61(14), 22 January.
48. Popper, K. R. (1988). The open universe - an argument for indeterminism. London: Routledge.
49. Rogers, M. D. (1998). New technological risks - improving the management of uncertainty, think piece. Brussels: European Commission, Forward Studies Unit, 13 May.
50. Singer, S. F. (1997). Trick or treaty: an energy tax in disguise. In Washington Times, 1 July.
51. United Nations (1992). Global climate treaty, Rio earth summit. United Nations.
52. US Air Force (1983). Acquisition risk management guide. US Air Force pamphlet.
53. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1975). Reactor safety study - an assessment of accident risks in US commercial nuclear power plants. WASH-1400 (NUREG-75/014), October. Washington, DC: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
54. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1985a). Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide - section 4: accident sequence definition. NUREG/CR-2815 (Vol. 1, Rev. 1). Washington, DC: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
55. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1985b). Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide - section 9: analysis of seismically-induced core damage sequences. NUREG/CR-2815 (Vol. 2, Rev. 1). Washington, DC: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
56. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1985c). Probabilistic safety analysis procedures guide. NUREG/CR-2815 (Vols. 1 and 2, Rev. 1). Washington, DC: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
57. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (1990). Severe accident risks: an assessment for five US nuclear power plants. NUREG-1150. Washington, DC: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
58. Unwin, S. D. (1991). A preliminary investigation of PSA validation methods. Final Draft, 8 February. Dublin, OH: Science Applications International Corporation.
59. 2-Minderung (pp. 243-263). VDI-Gesellschaft Energietechnik.
60. Williams, G. P. (1997). Chaos theory tamed. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press.
61. Wolf A., Swift J.B., Swinney H.L., Vastano J.A. Determining Lyapunov exponents from a time series. Physica D. 16:1985;285-317.