How should we study democratic consolidation?

Democratization

Volumn 5, Issue 4, 1998, Pages 1-19

  Schedler, Andreas ^a  

^a Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales Mexico   (Mexico)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION; METHODOLOGY; NATIONAL POLITICS;

EID: 0032464739     PISSN: 13510347     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13510349808403582     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK and London: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991).
2. Philippe C. Schmitter, Transitology: The Science or the Art of Democratization?', in Joseph S. Tulchin and Bemice Romero (eds.), Tlie Consolidation of Democracy in Latin America (Boulder and London: Lynne Rienner, 1995), p.14.
3. For an effort to bring order into the prevailing chaos, see Andreas Schedler, 'What is Democratic Consolidation?' Journal of Democracy, Vol.9, No.2 (1998), pp.91-107.
4. For an incisive critique of the 'extreme ambiguity' that many of the 'confusing', 'inconsistent', and 'casually drawn' 'ad hoc' categories in the study of democratic consolidation suffer from, see Guillermo O'Donnell, 'Illusions about Consolidation', Journal of Democracy, Vol.7, No.2 (1996), pp.34-51, and ibid., 'Illusions and Conceptual Flaws', Journal of Democracy, Vol.7, No.4 (1996), pp.160-68.
5. See György Szoboszlai (ed.), Flying Blind: Emerging Democracies in East-Central Europe (Budapest: Hungarian Political Science Association, 1992).
6. On the general importance of time for political analysis, see Andreas Schedler and Javier Santiso, 'Democracy and Time: An Invitation', International Political'Science Review, Vol.19, No.l (1998), pp.5-18.
7. Actually, tertium datur. Scholars may also study 'past futures', past expectations of regime continuity in a given country. How did Chilean politicians perceive the likelihood of regime breakdown on the eve of the military coup? When did the protagonists of the Spanish transition become convinced that democracy was here to stay? In such efforts to reconstruct past perceptions and predictions, the methodological problems I discuss below either turn into empirical problems (how did actors actually form their expectations?) or into counterfaclual exercises (how would they have evaluated the future if they had adopted other premises and processed other information?). On past futures, see Reinhart Koselleck, Vergangene Zukunft: Zur Semantik geschichtlicher Zeiten (Frankfurt/Main: Suhrkamp, 1989).
8. See, for example, with a focus on democratic discontinuity, the classical, multi-volume Tlie Breakdown of Democratic Regimes, edited by Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan (Baltimore, MD and London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978).
9. A prominent example is Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Huber Stephens, and John D. Stephens, Capitalist Development and Democracy (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1992). For an extraordinarily ambitious quantitative undertaking, see Adam Przeworski et a!., 'What Makes Democracy Endure?' Journal of Democracy, Vol.7, No.l (1996),pp.39-55.
10. J. Samuel Valenzuela, 'Democratic Consolidation in Post-Transitional Settings: Notion, Process, and Facilitating Conditions', in Scott Mainwaring, Guillermo O'Donnell, and J. Samuel Valenzuela (eds.), Issues in Democratic Consolidation: Tlie New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective (Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press, 1992), p.70.
11. Note that it is a narrow idea of 'stability' I am using here. It is only regime stability (or continuity) that counts. Policies and politicians, for example, may change, as a matter of course. In addition, I am referring to a narrow notion of 'regime'. For a democracy to be consolidated, I claim, only the very core rules that regulate access to positions of state power, namely, political elections, have to look firm and secure. It is democratic elections which have to be here to stay - regular, clean, inclusive, free, and competitive elections. Any other rules or institutionslhat make up a 'democratic regime' may still be open to question, even if they involve choices as fundamental as those between electoral systems (proportional versus majoritarian) or forms of government (presidentialism versus parliamentarism).
12. On these and other criteria of concept formation, see John Gerring, 'What Makes a Concept Good? An Integrated Framework for Understanding Concept Formation in the Social Sciences', Polity, Vol.32 (1999), forthcoming. I should note that while I am reluctant to 'legislate' terminological choices here, the present article nevertheless tends to describe 'retrospective' works as studies in 'democratic stability' and 'prospective' ones as studies in 'democratic consolidation'.
13. The quotes are, in this order, from Guillermo O'Donnell, 'Transitions, Continuities, and Paradoxes', in Mainwaring et al., Issues, p.I7;
14. Scott Mainwaring, Guillermo O'Donnell, and J. Samuel Valenzuela, 'Introduction', in Mainwaring et al., Issues, p.3;
15. Mirjana Kasapoviç and Dieter Nohlen, 'Wahlsysteme und Systemwechsel in Osteuropa', in Wolfgang Merkel, Eberhard Sandschneider, and Dieter Segert (eds.), Systemwechsel 2: Die Institutionalisierung der Demokratie (Opladen: Leske + Budrich, 1996), p.219; Myron Weiner, 'Empirical Democratic Theory and the Transition from Authoritarianism to Democracy', Political Science, Vol.20, No.4 (1987), p.864; Harald Waldrauch, 'Was heißt demokratische Konsolidierung? Über einige theoretische Konsequenzen der osteuropäischen Regimewechsel' (Vienna: Institute for Advanced Studies, 1996), Political Science Series 36, p.65; Philippe C. Schmitter, 'The Consolidation of Political Democracy in Southern Europe' (Stanford, CA and Florence: Stanford University and European University Institute, 1988), unpublished manuscript, p.6. For similar probabilistic formulations, see also David Collier and Deborah L. Norden, 'Strategic Choice Models of Political Change in Latin America' (Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame, Helen Kellogg Institute for International Studies, 1991), Working Paper 168; Giuseppe di Palma, 'Parliaments, consolidation, institutionalization: a minimalist view', in Ulrike Liebert and Maurizio Cotta (eds.), Parliament and Democratic Consolidation in Southern Europe (London and New York: Pinter Publishers, 1990) p.43; Samuel P. Huntington, 'Democracy for the Long Haul', Journal of Democracy, Vol.7, No.2 (1996), p.7; G. O'Donnell, 'Illusions about Consolidation', p. 166; and Geoffrey Pridham, 'The International Context of Democratic Consolidation: Southern Europe in Comparative Perspective', in Richard Günther et al. (eds.). The Politics of Democratic Consolidation: Southern Europe in Comparative Perspective (Baltimore, MD and London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995), p.168.
16. The terms are, in this order, from Laurence Whitehead, 'The Consolidation of Fragile Democracies: A Discussion with Illustrations', in Robert A. Pastor (ed.), Democracy in the Americas: Stopping the Pendulum (New York and London: Holmes & Meier, 1989), pp.76-95; Joseph S. Tulchin, 'Preface', in Joseph S. Tulchin and Bemice Romero (eds.), Tlie Consolidation of Democracy in Latin America (Boulder, CO and London: Lynne Rienner, 1995) p.ix; and Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore and London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996).
17. See, for example, P. Nikoforos Diamandouros, Hans-Jürgen Puhle, and Richard Günther, 'Conclusion', in Richard Günther et al., Tlie Politics of Democratic Consolidation, p.392; Richard Günther, P. Nikiforos Diamandouros, and Hans-Jürgen Puhle, 'Introduction', in Richard Günther et a!., The Politics of Democratic Consolidation, pp.7-8 and 20-21; Richard Günther, P. Nikiforos Diamandouros and Hans-Jürgen Puhle, 'O'Donnell's "Illusions": A Rejoinder', Journal of Democracy, Vol.7, No.4 (1996), p.155; Linz and Stepan, op. cit., p.6; Gerardo Munck, 'Disaggregating Political Regimes: Conceptual Issues in the Study of Democratization' (Urbana, IL: University of Illinois, Department of Political Science, 1996), unpublished manuscript, p.13; Pridham, op. cit., p.202; Schmitter, 'The Consolidation', p.4; Georg Sorensen, Democracy and Democratization (Boulder CO: Westview, 1993), p.46.
18. See, for examples, Diamandouros eta!., p.413; Linz and Stepan, op. cit., p.6; and Waldrauch, op. cit., p.87.
19. For references to democratic 'stability', see for example, Angel Flisfish, 'Gobemabilidad y consolidaciôn democrâtica: sugerencias para la discusiön', Revista Mexicana de Sociohgia Vol.51, No.3 (1989), p.115; Barbara Geddes, 'A Comparative perspective on thé Leninist Legacy in Eastern Europe', Comparative Political Studies, Vol.28, No.2 (1995), p.270; and Charles Guy Gillespie, 'Democratic consolidation in the Southern Cone and Brazil: Beyond Political Disarticulation?' Tliird florid Quarterly, Vol.11, No.2 (1989), p.93. For references to 'stabilization', see for example Wolfgang Merkel, 'Institutionalisierung und Konsolidierung der Demokratien in Ostmitteleuropa, in W. Merkel et al., Systemwechsel, p.38; to 'survival', Guiseppe Di Palma, 'To Govern Democracies: Past Practices, Present Uncertainties' (Berkeley, CA: University of California, 1993), unpublished manuscript, p.l; to 'endurance', di Palma, ibid.; and to 'guarantee', Leonardo Morlino, 'Democratic Consolidation: Definition and Models', in Geoffrey Pridham (éd.), Traditions to Democracy (Aldershot: Dartmouth, 1995), p.577.
20. Often, in fact, authors want to cover both perspectives with their general definitions of consolidation.
21. See, for example, Diamandouros el al., op. cit., p.412; Günther et al., 'Introduction', p.3; Morlino, op. cit., p.577; Schmitter, 'The Consolidation'.
22. Larry Diamond, 'Economic Development and Democracy Reconsidered', American Behavioral Scientist, Vol.35, No.4-5 (1992), p.485.
23. For a review of the extensive (and still growing) literature on democracy and economic development, see Diamond, ibid.
24. Valenzuela, op. cit., p.70.
25. O'Donnell, 'Illusions about Consolidation', p.36.
26. The terms are, in this order, from Günther et al., 'Introduction', p.21; Osvaldo Sunkel, 'Economic Reform and Democratic Viability', in Tulchin and Romero; and Adam Przeworski et al., Sustainable Democracy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995). For similar notions, see also Günther et al., ibid., pp.8,13, and 16; Diamandouros et al., ibid., pp.389 and 396; and Karen Remmer, 'New Theoretical Perspectives on Democratization', Comparative Politics, Vol.28, No. 1 (1995), p.114.
27. Merkel, op. cit., p.12.
28. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, 'Toward Consolidated Democracies', Journal of Democracy, Vol.7, No.2 (1996), p.15.
29. For example, see Przeworski et al., 'What Makes Democracy Endure?', pp.50-53.
30. See, for example, Schmitter, 'The Consolidation', p.4-5; Valenzuela, op. cit., p.59.
31. See, for example, Juan J. Linz, Tlie Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Crisis, Breakdown, and Reequilibration (Baltimore, MD and London: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978).
32. See, for example, Günther et al., 'Introduction'.
33. See, for example, Morlino, op. cit., p.577.
34. See, for example, Linz and Stepan, Problems; and Pridham, p. 169.
35. See, for example, Schmitter, 'The Consolidation'.
36. For a critique of 'hard' indicators of democratic consolidation, such as turnover tests, the passage of time, and the absence of'challenges', see Andreas Schedler, 'Expected Regime Stability: Rethinking Democratic Consolidation' (Mexico-City: Centre de Investigaciön y Docencia Econômicas, 1998), Working Paper 81, section 'Operational Fallacies', pp. 10-12.
37. For instance, in reference to the multiple 'casually drawn' graded categories Günther et al. employ in The Politics of Democratic Consolidation, Guillermo O'Donnell, 'Illusions and Conceptual Flaws', states (at p.161): 'The authors view consolidation as a several-stage process. ... The democracy resulting from the transition may be simply unconsolidated, but it may also be "partially consolidated", or "substantially consolidated"; or it may be consolidated at the national but not the regional level - all this before eventually reaching "sufficient consolidation". ... I find all this confusing. ... Beyond their own assertions, the authors give no indication that would allow us to recognize when most of their "stages" have been reached.'
38. For recommendations to bury the concept, see O'Donnell, 'Illusions about Consolidation'; ibid., 'Illusions and Conceptual Flaws'; and Ben Ross Schneider, 'Democratic Consolidations: Some Broad Comparisons and Sweeping Arguments', Latin American Research Review, Vol.30, No.2 (1995), pp.219-21. For an entirely quantitative treatment of 'survival chances' and 'death rates', see Przeworski et al., 'What Makes Democracy Endure?'.
39. We can, of course, calculate 'death rates' and 'survival chances' of political democracies by extrapolating past experiences (see for example Przeworksi et al., 'What Makes Democracy Endure?'). But if we .want to use such results on current cases we have to introduce a wealth of restricting céleris paribus assumptions which we do not have to make (or else, which seem less problematic) in the case of health statistics.
40. O'Donnell 1996,'Illusions about Consolidation, p.36.
41. Valenzuela, op. cit., p.70.
42. For Max Weber on legitimacy, see, for example, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft (ed. Johannes Winckelmann) (Tübingen: Mohr, 1972), pp. 16-20.
43. See, for example, Jürgen Habermas, Theorie des Kommunikativen Handelns (Frankfurt/Main: Suhrkamp, 1981), Vol.l, p.47.
44. For a brief discussion of converging and diverging 'observer-defined' versus 'actor-defined' coup probabilities, including the possibility of misperceptions on both sides, see Collier and Norden, op. cit., pp.12-14. For some hints at the possible impact of prejudice ('entrenched expectations') on academic analyses, see Remmer, op. cit., p. 115. For a general discussion of external observer versus internal participant perspectives, see Habermas, op. cit., Vol.1, pp. 152-96.
45. On democratic consolidation as a 'game of mutual observation', see also below. Of course, we may also refrain from calculating probabilities on the grounds that more research and more evidence is needed. Guillermo O'Donnell, for instance, declares himself 'agnostic pending better research' with respect to the 'relative likelihood of breakdown' of different types of democracies ('Illusions and Conceptual Flaws', p.166).
46. Despite the theme's apparent relevance, I know of no systematic treatment of the role of intellectuals in contemporary processes of democratization. Even if contemporary democratization studies have attributed a central role to elite actors, the role of intellectuals has gone largely unnoticed in the literature. For instance, the collection of basic readings put together by Eva Etzioni-Halevy on elites and democracy, Classes and Elites in Democracy and Democratization: A Collection of Readings (New York and London: Garland, 1997), just has one entry on intellectuals in its index, referring ... to excerpts from Gramsci's Prison Notebooks. Not in all countries did intellectuals push as decisively for a democratic transition as they did in Chile, for example. And few countries have experienced such a posttransitional mass migration of academics into politics as has taken place in Chile. But in many countries the academic language of transition and consolidation has entered the political world, even if often in a highly distorted and barely recognizable way. On Mexican discourses on 'democratic transition', see Andreas Schedler, 'Hard to Observe and Hard to Believe: Mexico's Veiled Transition to Democracy', paper prepared for presentation at the 1998 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), Boston, 3-6 Sept. 1998.
47. For definitions that include the 'subjective factor', see, for example, Timothy Power and Nancy Powers, 'Issues in the Consolidation of Democracy in Latin America and Southern Europe in Comparative Perspective: A Rapporteurs' Report' (Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame, Helen Kellogg Institute for International Studies, 1988), Working Paper 113, p.5; Valenzuela, op. cit., pp.70-73; and Whitehead, op. cit.
48. See Anthony Giddens, The Constitution of Society (Cambridge: Polity, 1984), p.284; see Habermas, op. cit., pp. 152-96.
49. See Cynthia McClintock, 'The Prospects for Democratic Consolidation in a "Least Likely" Case: Peru', Comparative Politics, Vol.21, No.2 (1989), pp.127-48.