New Jersey's sex offender risk assessment scale: Preliminary validity data

Journal of Psychiatry and Law

Volumn 26, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 327-351

  Ferguson, Glenn E ^a   Eidelson, Roy J ^b   Witt, Philip H ^b  

^a New Jersey State Parole Board   (United States)

^b NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATA ANALYSIS; DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS; FACTORIAL ANALYSIS; LAW ENFORCEMENT; REVIEW; RISK ASSESSMENT; SCORING SYSTEM; SEXUAL CRIME; SEXUAL DEVIATION; VALIDATION PROCESS;

EID: 0032454077     PISSN: 00931853     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/009318539802600303     Document Type: Review

References (30)

1. Prentky, R.A. (1994). Introduction: The assessment and treatment of sex offenders, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 21, 6-9.
2. The third author, Philip H. Witt, was a member of this panel.
3. See Win, P.H., DelRusso, J., Oppenheim, J. & Ferguson, G. (1996). Sex offender risk assessment and the law, Journal of Psychiatry and Law, 24, 343-377.
4. The manual for the RRAS can be obtained from Deputy Attorney General Jessica Oppenheim, Department of Law and Public Safety, Division of Criminal Justice, Hughes Justice Complex, Trenton, NJ 08625.
5. Quinsey, V.L., Lalumiere, M.L., Rice, M.E. & Harris, G.T. (1995). Predicting sexual offenses. In J.C. Campbell (ed.), Assessing Dangerousness: Violence by Sexual Offenders, Batterers, and Child Abusers (pp. 114-137), Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
6. McGrath, R.J. (1991). Sex-offender risk assessment and disposition planning: A review of empirical and clinical findings, International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 35, 328-350.
7. Rice, M.E., Harris, G.T. & Quinsey, V.L. (1990). A follow-up of rapists assessed in a maximum security psychiatric facility, Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 5, 435-448;
8. Rice, M.E., Quinsey, V.L. & Harris, G.T. (1991). Sexual recidivism among child molesters released from a maximum security psychiatric institution, Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 59, 381-386; Quinsey et al., supra note 5.
9. Prentky, R.A., Knight, R.A. & Lee, A.F.S. (1997). Risk factors associated with recidivism among extrafamilial child molesters, Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 65, 141-149.
10. Hanson, R.K. & Bussiere, M.T. (1996). Predictors of sexual offender recidivism: A meta-analysis. Published by Canada Public Works and Government Services, ISBN 0-662-24790-6.
11. The burden of proof for a repetitive and compulsive finding is on the State, at a level of preponderance of the evidence. See Witt, P.H. and Frank, M. (1988). Psychological evaluations under the New Jersey Sex Offender Act, New Jersey Trial Lawyer, 2, 37-43.
12. Ferguson, G.E. (1997). An investigation into the validity of the registrant risk assessment scale as a legal tool and clinical instrument. Dissertation Abstracts International, AAT 9809070.
13. U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Sex offenses and sex offenders, NCJ-163392, 1997.
14. All statistical analyses were performed using the computer program Statistica, Release 5 (1997). Tulsa, OK: Statsoft.
15. New Jersey Administrative Office of the Courts (1997). Judgment of conviction database, courtesy of James Dunnemann, research analyst; these base rates are remarkably similar to those for the U.S. as a whole: "On a given day there are approximately 234,000 [sex] offenders convicted of rape or sexual assault under the care, custody, or control of corrections agencies; nearly 60% of these sex offenders are under conditional supervision in the community." U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, supra note 12, at 15.
16. We have not computed actual operating characteristics for two reasons. First, there is no "gold standard" of diagnosis against which to compare the subset of RRAS criteria we are examining. In traditional operating characteristic analysis, the ability of an instrument to recognize a diagnosis (of, for example, a disease or mental disorder) is compared with the standard method of making that diagnosis; there is no analogous diagnosis of risk that could be used as a comparison for the RRAS. Second, we are not examining the entire RRAS. Because of the difficulty in collecting data for the dynamic RRAS criteria, this study is examining only a subset of RRAS criteria, the static factors. Hence the full instrument is not being examined. Nonetheless one can see that particularly for high-risk individuals, a positive predictive power of 0.6 is a substantial improvement over the ADTC base rate of 0.1, which is how often one could expect to be correct in high-risk classification by chance.
17. Hanson, R.K. & Bussiere, M.T., supra note 9 at 10: "Overall, the strongest predictors of sexual offense recidivism were factors related to sexual deviance. Sex offenders were more likely to recidivate if they had deviant sexual interests, had committed a variety of sexual crimes, had begun offending sexually at an early age, or had targeted boys, strangers, or unrelated victims. Sexual interest in children as measured by phallometric testing was the single strongest predictor of sexual offense recidivism. . . . After sexual deviance, the next most important predictors were general criminological factors, such as any prior offenses, age, and antisocial personality disorder. These factors mark a dimension common to many criminal populations that has been variously referred to as "low self-control," psychopathy, or lifestyle instability. There is extensive research linking general criminological factors to non-sexual recidivism among both sexual and non-sexual offender populations. Although criminal lifestyle was, in itself, only moderately related to sexual offense recidivism, there is some evidence that the combination of deviant sexual preferences and psychopathy places offenders at particularly high risk for committing sexual crimes." [citations omitted]
18. Although the foregoing analysis is based only on static factors, scored 0, 1, 2, the study did examine group means for the full RRAS, including dynamic factors and scored and weighted in the original manner. The full RRAS group means are 38, 53, and 60 for probationers, state prison sex offenders, and ADTC sex offenders, exactly in the sequence one would expect. Additionally, a small sample (N=10) of civilly committed sex offenders was available; their full RRAS mean was 62.
19. To be found repetitive-compulsive, the sex offender's offense must be part of a broader pattern of deviant sexual behavior, and the sex offender must exhibit loss of sexual control. See Witt & Frank, supra note 10.
20. See Hanson, R.K. & Bussiere, M.T., supra note 9, for general support of breadth and chronicity of sexual deviance as predictor of recidivism.
21. Hudson, S.M. & Seto, M.C. (1997). Rape: Psychopathology and theory. In D. Richard Laws & William O'Donohue (eds.), Sexual Deviance: Theory, Assessment, and Treatment (pp. 332-355), New York: Guilford Press; U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, supra note 12.
22. Admittedly, this is an exploratory study, and much further work needs to be done to examine survival curves of the three risk groups before concluding that such an improvement over chance can be sustained.
23. Hanson & Bussiere, supra note 9.
24. For example, Quinsey et al., supra note 5.
25. Some may object to the use of the term "weights," given that some instruments, such as Robert Prentky's Adult Sex Offender Risk Assessment Schedule, give all items equal weight. However, by varying the number of items in each category, such as sexual deviance or response to treatment, one can readily give that factor more weight.
26. See discussion in Hanson, R.K. (1998, in press). What do we know about sex offender risk assessment? Journal of Psychology, Public Policy, and Law.
27. Hanson, R.K. What do we know about sex offender risk assessment? Journal of Psychology, Public Policy, and Law. Id.
28. See discussion in Hanson & Bussiere, supra note 9.
29. Dix, G.E. (1976). Differential processing of abnormal sex offenders. Journal of Criminal Law, Criminology, and Police Science, 67, 233-243; Hanson & Bussiere, supra note 9;
30. Smith, W.R. & Monastersky, C. (1986). Assessing juvenile sex offenders' risk for reoffending. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 13, 115-140; Hanson, R.K., supra note 25.