Scientific cooperation as a bridge across the cold war divide: The case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

Volumn 866, Issue , 1998, Pages 55-83

  McDonald, Alan ^a  

^a INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AUSTRIA; CANADA; CONFERENCE PAPER; CONFLICT; EASTERN EUROPE; FRANCE; GERMANY; GOVERNMENT; HUMAN; INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION; ITALY; JAPAN; MIDDLE EAST; POLICY; SCIENCE; SYSTEM ANALYSIS; UNITED KINGDOM; UNITED STATES; USSR;

EID: 0032449668     PISSN: 00778923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.1998.tb09147.x     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. This case study benefits tremendously from interviews granted me by Francis Bator, Allan Bromley, McGeorge Bundy, Andrei Bykov, Peter de Janosi, Jermen Gvishiani, C.S. Hoiling, Roger Levien, Charles Maechling, Jr. Arkadii Maltsev, Marek Makowski, Roman Ostrowski, Howard Raiffa, Tibor Vasko, and Robert White; from advice and information supplied by Helga Lowe and Eddie Löser; and from comments on earlier drafts by Jesse Ausubel, Francis Bator, William Blanpied, Garry Brewer, Andrei Bykov, Chester Cooper, Wolf Häfele, Thomas Lee, Charles Maechling, Tibor Vasko, and the participants in an October 21-22 workshop at the New York Academy of Sciences - Jesse Ausubel, Alexander Keynan, Rodney Nichols, Susan Raymond, John Redick, Juilian Robinson, David Speedie, John Temple Swing, Pete Suttmeier, Gregory van der Vink, Iddo Wernick, Suzanne Wood, and Paulo Wrobel. I am also grateful to Charles Maechling for sharing with me his extensive files on both the 1969-1972 negotiations led on the U.S. side by Philip Handler, and the 1981-1982 activities of the IIASA-U.S. Planning Group.
2. The twelve NMOs were from Bulgaria, Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany), the German Democratic Republic (East Germany), Italy, Japan, Poland, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
3. X, "The Sources of Soviet Conduct," Foreign Affairs 25, 4 (1947): 566-582.
4. Lyndon B. Johnson, "Remarks of the President at National Conference of Editorial Writers, Carnegie Endowment Building, New York," October 7, 1966;
5. Edward Skloot, "The Decision to Send East-West Trade Legislation to Congress, 1965-1966," Appendices: Commission on the Organization of the Government for Conduct on Foreign Policy 3 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1975).
6. New York Times (26 June 1967): 32, column 1.
7. "IIASA - The Early Days," A lecture given at IIASA by the Founding Director of the Institute, Professor Howard Raiffa, on Wednesday, September 23, 1992 (by Marc Clark from tape and previous transcription, February 3, 1993).
8. West Germany (Wolfgang Fincke, Federal Ministry of Scientific Research; Karl Ganzhorn, IBM-Stuttgart; Meyer-Abich, Assistant to Prof, von Weizsäcker, Department of Philosophy, University of Hamburg; and Gerhard J. Stoeber, Federal Chancellor's Office, Planning Staff), France (Michel Crozier, Director, Centre de Solociologie des Organisations de l'Ecole pratique des Hautes Etudes, Paris; Bertrand de Jouvenel, Chairman and Managing Director, Society for Economic Study and Documentation; and Pierre Massé, Président, Electricité de France), Italy (Aurelio Peccei, Managing Director of Italconsult), the United Kingdom (Colin Buchanan, Department of Civil Engineering, Imperial College of Science and Technology; Christopher Freeman, Director, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex; E.C. Williams, President, Operational Research Society; and Solly Zuckerman, Chief Scientific Adviser to Her Majesty's Government), and the United States (McGeorge Bundy, President, Ford Foundation; Carl Kaysen, Director, Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton; Arjay Miller, Vice-Chairman, Ford Motor Company; and Howard Raiffa, Professor of Mathematical Statistics, Harvard Business School).
9. July 12, 1968 letter from J. Gvishiani to McGeorge Bundy.
10. July 25, 1968 letter from McGeorge Bundy to Solly Zuckerman.
11. "Note of a Meeting with Mr. Gvishiani, Deputy Chairman of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology, and Dr. Peccei, Managing Director of Italconsult, in Rome on Saturday, 19th October 1968 on Bundy Proposals" by Solly Zuckerman.
12. December 30, 1968 letter from McGeorge Bundy to Pierre Massé.
13. Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Joørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, The Limits to Growth (New York: Universe Books Publishers, 1972).
14. Answers to a May 1969 questionnaire from Russell Ackoff (5/28/69), James Coleman (5/27/69), Paul Taubman (6/2/69), and Anthony Oettinger (6/3/69).
15. "Aide Memoire, Moscow Meeting - 10th-11th July 1969, Planning for an Institute of Applied Systems Analysis," prepared by Sir Solly Zuckerman.
16. Joseph L. Bower, Trip Notes, September 9-15, 1970.
17. "IIASA - The Early Days," A lecture given at IIASA by the Founding Director of the Institute, Professor Howard Raiffa, on Wednesday, September 23, 1992 (by Marc Clark from tape and previous transcription, February 3, 1993).
18. March 2, 1972 Airgram from Department of State to Athens, Ankara, Belgrade, etc., Subject: Status of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (East-West Institute).
19. 126th meeting of the National Science Board, September 4-5, 1969.
20. March 2, 1972 U.S. Department of State Airgram; Subject: Status of International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (East-West Institute); also October 7, 1969 confidential memorandum from Richard Nixon to William D. McElroy, Director, National Science Foundation.
21. "International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis," Note of an unofficial meeting held in Curtis Green Building, London, S.W.1. on Thursday 3 December 1970 at 10.30 a.m. (and continued at the Hyde Park Hotel, S.W.1.), Cabinet Office, London, S.W.1., 7 December 1970.
22. Undated copy of a confidential memo from Joe Bower to Phil Handler re: "Background for the Woods Hole Meeting [August 13, 1970]."
23. Undated copy of a confidential memo from Joe Bower to Phil Handler re: "Background for the Woods Hole Meeting [August 13, 1970]";
24. "Memorandum for the Record, Subject: Institute for Applied Systems Analysis - Planning Meeting, October 11-12, 1971, Paris, France," October 22, 1971, Charles Maechling, Jr.
25. "International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis," Note of an unofficial meeting held in Curtis Green Building, London, S.W.1. on Thursday 3 December 1970 at 10.30 a.m. (and continued at the Hyde Park Hotel, S.W.1.), Cabinet Office, London, S.W.1., 7 December 1970.
26. "International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis," Note of an unofficial meeting held in Curtis Green Building, London, S.W.1. on Thursday 3 December 1970 at 10.30 a.m. (and continued at the Hyde Park Hotel, S.W.1.), Cabinet Office, London, S.W.1., 7 December 1970;
27. Undated copy of a confidential memo from Joe Bower to Phil Handler re: "Background for the Woods Hole Meeting [August 13, 1970]";
28. August 13, 1970 meeting at Woods Hole on "Proposed Center for the Study of Problems of Advanced Societies,""summary of the meeting prepared by Murray Todd and included with Phil Handler's September 8, 1970 letter to Joe Bower.
29. Alternatives based on "ability to pay" as measured by GDP or national scientific budgets were also considered. But even expected beneficiaries of such formulas, such as East Germany and Poland, preferred the clarity, symmetry, and stability of the chosen formula over the complexity and uncertainty of alternatives based on ability to pay. "Memorandum for the record. Subject: Institute for Applied Systems Analysis - Planning Meeting, October 11-12, 1971, Paris, France," October 22, 1971, Charles Maechling, Jr.
30. According to Charles Maechling, Jr., the one surviving member of the Handler team, the oral agreement reached in Moscow in 1969 between Bundy and Gvishiani was never made known to Handler, nor would Handler have considered himself bound by such an agreement. However, Maechling also reports that the Handler team's clear expectation was that the Director would be an American and the Council Chairman a Soviet.
31. "Memorandum for the Record, Subject: Institute for Applied Systems Analysis -Planning Meeting, October 11-12, 1971, Paris, France," October 22, 1971, Charles Maechling, Jr.
32. October 19, 1970 memo on Ford Foundation letterhead from Marshall Goldman to Bundy re: "Meeting with Gvishiani on the Center for Applied Systems Analysis, Moscow, October 12, 1970."
33. Meeting with Gvishiani on the Center for Applied Systems Analysis, Moscow, October 12, 1970, Ibid.
34. "International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Note of an Unofficial Meeting held in Curtis Green Building, London, S.W.1. on Thursday 3 December 1970 at 10.30 a.m. (and continued at the Hyde Park Hotel, S.W.1.), Cabinet Office, London, S.W.1., 7 December 1970.
35. "Memorandum for the Record, Subject: Institute for Applied Systems Analysis -Planning Meeting, October 11-12, 1971, Paris, France," October 22, 1971, Charles Maechling, Jr. In addition to Handler, Gvishiani, Peccei (now representing the Italian National Research Council), and Zuckerman, the planning meeting included Pierre Aigrain from France (Association Francaise pour le Developpement des Analyses Systemes), Friedrich Schneider from West Germany (Max Planck Gesellschaft), Karl Leupold from East Germany (Deutsche Akademie der Wissenschaften zu Berlin), and Adam Smolenski of Poland (Polish Academy of Sciences).
36. March 2, 1972 U.S. Department of State Airgram; Subject: Status of International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (East-West Institute).
37. Unclassified January 17, 1972 letter to Nelson Sievering (Director, Office of General Scientific Affairs, SCI, U.S. Department of State) from John H. Buehler, Assistant Science Attaché, U.S. Embassy, Paris.
38. February 23, 1972 letter from Paul Sitton to Advisory Committee for the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, National Academy of Sciences.
39. March 27, 1972 letter from Thomas F. Malone to Philip Handler.
40. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Site Working Group, Note of a Meeting held in London on 5-6 September, 7 September 1972, ASA(S)(72) 2nd Meeting.
41. September 18, 1970 Memorandum of Conversation, Department of State, Subject: East-West Institute; Participants: Wolfgang Opfermann, Counselor (Scientific Affairs), German Embassy, Nelson F. Sievering, Jr., Director, General Scientific Affairs, SCI.
42. June 7, 1972 letter from Paul L. Sitton (NAS) to Pierre Audigier (Embassy of France, Washington, DC).
43. June 29, 1972 letter from Alan Hodgkin to Philip Handler; June 6, 1972 U.S. Department of State telegram to the American Embassy in London.
44. July 21, 1972 letter of Philip Handler to Alan Hodgkin, The Royal Society.
45. In this case I believe that personalities made a difference. As Gvishiani gained confidence that he could work cooperatively with Raiffa, he became willing to bend on this final issue.
46. Charter of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis," Article XI, Section 6, Laxenburg, Austria, 1972.
47. As described by Rennie Whitehead, who signed the Charter for the Canadian Committee for IIASA: "The remarkable qualities of Gvishiani have never been better demonstrated than they were on that day. He started the first IIASA Council meeting by making a short statement in excellent English. He said that, in his experience, more international initiatives had failed through linguistic arguments than from any other cause. He did not believe that the Institute could survive with more than one official language. The only feasible choice was English. So he was making the decision at the outset that English would be the official language of the Institute ⋯ I recall no discussion of this remarkable statement. I think most of those present were momentarily stunned and, by the time they had recovered, Gvishiani was on the first item of the Agenda proper. However, on his first intervention the Soviet member started in the Russian language. Gvishiani let him get one sentence out before he interrupted him, saying 'Professor - , you heard what I said; I know you have some difficulty with English but please try.' The Soviet member complied, albeit in bad grace. A little later the French member, Professor Levi, spoke. Gvishiani cut him off after the first couple of words by saying in a light and humorous manner 'Professor Lévy [sic]: if the Russians can speak English, surely you can.'" See J. Rennie Whitehead, Radar to the Future: The Story of a Boffin, unpublished manuscript.
48. "Scientists of U.S., U.S.S.R., Ten Other Nations Establish Institute to Study World Problems," news release. National Academy of Sciences, distributed October 4, 1972.
49. "U.S. and Soviet Will Lead A 12-Nation 'Think Tank,'" Richard D. Lyons, New York Times, Washington, DC, October 4, 1972.
50. Interview with Jermen Gvishiani, June 12, 1996, Laxenburg, Austria.
51. This is one of several examples from the IIASA negotiations where success depended upon more on dovetailing asymmetrical, complementary interests than on elaborating symmetrical interests. Other examples of differences that were successfully dovetailed include the Soviet preference for the Council Chair and the U.S. preference for the Directorship, IIASA's attractiveness to Westerners as a window on the East and its attractiveness to Easterners as an opportunity to travel and live in the West, and the Eastern emphasis on methodology and the Western emphasis on applications. In this respect, the IIASA negotiations reinforce the general lesson that differences in the interests and abilities of parties often provide the raw material for fashioning creative trades or syngergistic arrangements that leave all parties better off and make agreement possible. Symmetry is often important in selling a potential agreement to one's constituency, but asymmetry is often what makes agreement possible.
52. I must not leave the impression that there were no critics of IIASA in Washington or Moscow. In both governments there were always those for whom increased East-West understanding was never a desirable goal or who believed it wiser to spend money on research at home. In both the United States and the Soviet Union there was a fear of spies, and in the Soviet Union there were fears of brain-washing and possible defections as well.
53. Interview with Gvishiani on June 12, 1996, and September 10, 1987 letter from McGeorge Bundy to Edward Levi, President, American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
54. Salaries had been a major issue, with agreement finally reached on a single scale applying to all staff. It would be up to individual NMOs to develop supplementary innovative procedures for their own nationals if they wished. The salary scale was keyed to levels in France, Italy, and West Germany. This was higher than prevailing salaries in the United Kingdom and Eastern Europe, but lower than those in America. For the United States, the deficiency was solved partly by an NAS-administered fund provided by the NSF to "top up" selected American salaries. West Germany and Japan employed similar supplementary systems.
55. June 12, 1996 interview with Jermen Gvishiani, Laxenburg, Austria; June 10, 1996 interview with Andrei Bykov, Laxenburg, Austria.
56. July 23, 1996 telephone interview with Tibor Vasko: Prague, Czech Republic and Cambridge, Massachusetts.
57. "IIASA - The Early Days," A lecture given at IIASA by the Founding Director of the Institute, Professor Howard Raiffa, on Wednesday, September 23, 1992 (by Marc Clark from tape and previous transcription, February 3, 1993).
58. For more on this work, see "Qualitative Analysis of Insect Outbreak Systems: The Spruce Budworm and Forest," D. Ludwig, D.D. Jones, and C.S. Holling (Editors), J. Anim. Ecol., Vol. 44:315-332, 1978;
59. Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management, C.S. Holling (Editor), John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK, 1978;
60. Pest Management: Proceedings of an International Conference, October 25-29, 1976, G.A. Norton and C.S. Holling (Editors), Pergamon Press, Oxford, UK, 1978.
61. 1982 Report of the House of Representatives Science and Technology Committee regarding U.S. participation in IIASA, April 23, 1982.
62. Testimony of Dr. Thomas Malone, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences, before the Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, February 23, 1982.
63. 1982 Report of the House of Representatives Science and Technology Committee regarding U.S. participation in IIASA, April 23, 1982.
64. March 20, 1982 letter from G.A. Keyworth, Science Advisor to the President, to Frank Press, President, National Academy of Sciences.
65. May 5, 1982 memorandum from Chester L. Cooper to Members of the IIASA-U.S. Planning Group, Subject: Report on Activities Since our April 13th Meeting.
66. To cover Austrian inflation the Council increased dues by 6 percent for 1983, 4.8 percent for 1984, five percent for 1985, and 5 percent for 1986. The U.S. NMO always fell well short of the formal dues levels. The Soviet NMO regularly paid its full 1982 amount, but it did not pay the annual increases.
67. May 25, 1982 telegram from Ronald Keay, Executive Secretary, Royal Society of London, addressed to the Council of IIASA.
68. For funding in the interim, the American Academy turned to major private foundations and the companies contributing to the ICSAR Program, while also negotiating for additional flexibility from the IIASA Council. The Academy was willing to be billed for full Category A dues - the level that applied to the U.S. and USSR NMOs - but also reported to the IIASA Council each year a lower U.S. target level for what it realistically might raise. The Soviet NMO continued to pay at the 1982 Category A dues level. The American Academy's eventual success in raising sufficient private money to weather a complete withdrawal of government funding is unique in IIASA's history. Critical to that success was the existence of private foundations in the United States with programs, expertise, and finances that could match the American Academy's needs.
69. September 22, 1984 letter from Secretary of State George P. Shultz to McGeorge Bundy.
70. The NSF provided $455,000 in fiscal year 1987; $550.000 in fiscal year 1988; and $845,000 in fiscal year 1989, plus an additional $39,000 for American YSSP participants.
71. The first and third of these points come from a telephone interview with D. Allan Bromley, August 19, 1996: New Haven, Connecticut and Cambridge, Massachusetts.
72. Author's notes from a February 16, 1989 conversation with Peter de Janosi.
73. Although I have learned that specific IIASA actions were important in reducing security concerns in Washington, I do not yet know which actions specifically made a difference.
74. From the interviews and documents collected for this paper, the lone dissent to this conclusion comes from Solly Zuckerman's autobiography published in 1988. "Only time will tell whether IIASA will succeed in fulfilling the main hope that brought it about - that of helping bring about East-West understanding. So far there is little to boast about." Solly Zuckerman, Monkeys, Men and Missiles: An Autobiography 1946-88 (London: Collins, 1988). Zuckerman does not elaborate.
75. December 8, 1978 memo from Harvey Averch, Assistant Director, STIA (Scientific, Technological, and Scientific Affairs), NSF to Members of the National Science Board and Director NSF regarding "NSB requested evaluation of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis;" W.W. Cooper, "A Report to NSF on Policy Applications of IIASA Products with Analytical-Quantitative Content," September 10, 1978;
76. John M. Richardson, Jr., "International Collaboration at IIASA: Survey and Appraisal," September 15, 1978;
77. C. West Churchman, "Survey of the Contributions of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis to Methods Other than Applied Mathematics," 1978;
78. A. Charnes, "New Analytical Methods at IIASA," September 5, 1978;
79. Jurgen Schmandt, "Policy Research at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis: A Report to the National Science Foundation," September 1978;
80. May 11, 1979 memo from Harvey Averch, Assistant Director, STIA (Scientific, Technological, and Scientific Affairs), NSF to Members and Consultants of the National Science Board via the Director NSF regarding "Results of a Survey of IIASA Alumni";
81. "Survey of IIASA Alumni," prepared for Division of International Programs, National Science Foundation, prepared by Aileen N. Sprague and J. Davidson Frame, Computer Horizons, Inc., March 1979;
82. "The Information Dissemination Program of IIASA in the United States," prepared by Nancy K. Roderer and Candace H. Olsen, King Research, Inc. for the National Science Foundation, August 17, 1978;
83. "Final Report: Assessment of the Scientific Quality and Utility of Reports Produced by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis," Kappa Systems, Inc., August 1978, NSF Contract No. C-INT 78-11783;
84. October 29, 1980 memo (NSB-80-464) from Harvey Averch, Assistant Director, Scientific, Technological, and International Affairs, NSF to Acting Director/NSF, regarding "NSB-requested Assessment of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis";
85. Robert M. Thrall, "IIASA: What It Is and What It May Be - A Report to the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.," September 1980;
86. Martin Greenberger, "IIASA From Youthful to 'Useful,'" September 1980;
87. C. West Churchman, "IIASA How Good is IIASA? A Report to NSF on an Evaluation of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis," August 1980;
88. George J. Klir, "IIASA: Expectations, Accomplishments, Current Characteristics and Prospects - A Comprehensive Review and Recommendations," August 1980;
89. Carl Kaysen, "Report on IIASA: Summer-Fall 1980."
90. Research accomplishments that have attracted particular praise include early work by Holling's Ecology Project on spruce budworm infestations in North America in particular, and on adaptive resource management in general. IIASA's Energy Systems Program, begun in 1973 after the first oil shock, was the Institute's major program throughout the 1970s. In the mid-1980s IIASA set the standard in estimating global warming impacts on international agriculture. In the 1990s it has stayed at the leading edge of this field, applying adaptations of IIASA's global agricultural production, trade, and consumption models. In 1989, Stanislav Shatalin, a principal economic advisor to Gorbachev, encouraged IIASA to bring eastern and western economists and officials together to assess possibilities for Soviet economic reform. The results were not adopted by Gorbachev to any significant extent. But, Boris Yeltsin later made greater use of them and, in November 1991, appointed Petr Aven from the IIASA project as Russia's minister of Foreign Economic Relations. Since 1986 the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe has used RAINS (IIASA's Regional Acidification Information and Simulation model) as the key scientific support for negotiations under the 1979 Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, the main international accord regarding air pollution. In the field of natural resources and the environment, essentially every international science program in the past two decades has been influenced by the research and networks begun at IIASA in 1972. IIASA fostered in this area a new international community of interest at a time when nothing comparable was underway elsewhere. Ideas and connections begun at that time have persisted and expanded, and they now thoroughly permeate international efforts such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. See Ludwig, D.D. Jones, and C.S. Holling, "Qualitative Analysis of Insect Outbreak Systems: The Spruce Budworm and Forest," Journal Animal Ecology 44 (1978): 315-332;
91. C.S. Holling, ed., Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management (Chichester, U.K.: John Wiley & Sons, 1978);
92. Jeanne Anderer, Alan McDonald, and Nebojša Nakićenović, Energy in a Finite World: Paths to a Sustainable Future - Report by the Energy Systems Program Group of IIASA, volume 1 (Cambridge: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1981);
93. Wolf Häfele, Energy in a Finite World: A Global Systems Analysis - Report by the Energy Systems Program Group of IIASA, volume 2 (Cambridge: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1981);
94. Merton J. Peck and Thomas J. Richardson, eds., What is to be Done? Proposals for the Soviet Transition to the Market (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1991);
95. Joseph Alcamo, Roderick Shaw, and Leen Hordijk, eds., The RAINS Model of Acidification: Science and Strategies in Europe (Boston, London, and Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1990).