Models to predict the intensity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission: Applications to the burden of disease in Kenya

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

Volumn 92, Issue 6, 1998, Pages 601-606

  Snow, R W ^a,b   Gouws, E ^c   Omumbo, J ^a   Rapuoda, B ^d   Craig, M H ^c   Tanser, F C ^c   Le Sueur, D ^c   Ouma, J ^d  

^a KEMRI WELLCOME TRUST RESEARCH PROGRAMME   (Kenya)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c SOUTH AFRICAN MEDICAL RESEARCH COUNCIL   (South Africa)

^d MINISTRY OF HEALTH   (Kenya)

Author keywords

Geographical information system; Kenya; Malaria; Plasmodium falciparum; Transmission intensity models

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

ARTICLE; CHILDHOOD DISEASE; CLIMATE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; ENDEMIC DISEASE; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; GEOGRAPHY; HIGH RISK POPULATION; HUMAN; INFORMATION SYSTEM; KENYA; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALARIA FALCIPARUM; MODEL; MORBIDITY; MORTALITY; PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; POPULATION; PREDICTION; PRESCHOOL CHILD; STATISTICAL MODEL;

GOES; PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; PROTOZOA;

EID: 0032439645     PISSN: 00359203     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0035-9203(98)90781-7     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Alonso, P. L., Lindsay, S.W., Armstrong, J. R. M., Conteh, M., Hill, A. G., David, P. H., Fegan, G., de Francisco, A., Hall, A. J., Shenton, F. C., Cham, K. & Greenwood, B. M. (1991). The effect of insecticide-treated bed nets on mortality of Gambian children. Lancet, 337, 1499-1502.
2. Binka, F. N., Morris, S. S., Ross, D. A., Arthur, P. & Aryeetey, M. E. (1994). Patterns of malaria morbidity and mortality in children in northern Ghana. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 88, 381-385.
3. Bradley, A. K. & Gilles, H. M. (1984). Malumfashi endemic diseases research project XXI. Pointers to causes of death in the Malumfashi area, northern Nigeria. Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, 78, 265-271.
4. Craig, M. H., Snow, R. W. & Le Sueur, D. (in press). African climatic model of malaria transmission based on monthly rainfall and temperature. Parasitology Today.
5. De Francisco, A., Hall, A. J., Armstrong Schellenberg, J. R. M., Greenwood, A. M. & Greenwood, B. M. (1993). The pattern of infant and childhood mortality in Upper River Division, The Gambia. Annals of Tropical Paediatrics, 13, 345-352.
6. Dellacollette, C. & Barutwanayo, M. (1993). Mortalité et morbidité aux jeunes ages dans une region à paludisme hyperendémique stable, commune de Nyanza Lac, Imbo sud, Burundi. Bulletin de la Société de Pathologie Exotique, 86, 1-7.
7. Dellacollette, C., Van der Styft, P., Molima, K., Dellacollette-Lebrum, C. & Wéry, M. (1989). Etude de la mortalité globale et de la mortalité liée au paludisme dans le Kivu Montagneux, Zaire. Revue Epidémiologique et Santé Publique, 37, 161-166.
8. Fontaine, R. E., Najjar, A. E. & Prince, J. S. (1961). The 1958 malaria epidemic in Ethiopia. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 10, 795-803.
9. Greenwood, B. M., Bradley, A. K., Greenwood, A. M., Byass, P., Jammeh, K., Marsh, K., Tulloch, S., Oldfield, F. S. J. & Hayes, R. (1987). Mortality and morbidity from malaria among children in a rural area of The Gambia, West Africa. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 81, 478-486.
10. Hay, S. I., Snow, R. W. & Rogers, D. J. (1998). Predicting malaria seasons in Kenya using multitemporal meteorological satellite sensor data. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 92, 12-20.
11. Holben, B. N. (1986). Characteristics of maximum value composition images from temporal AVHRR data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 15, 3347-3363.
12. Hutchinson, M. F., Nix, H. A. & McMahon, J. P. (1995). Africa - a Topographic and Climatic Database. Canberra: Australian National University.
13. Kenya (1989). Kenya Population Census, 1989, volume 1. Nairobi, Kenya: Government Printers.
14. Kirigia, J. M., Snow, R. W., Fox-Rushby, J. & Mills, A. (1998). The cost of treating paediatric malaria admissions and the potential impact of insecticide-treated mosquito nets on hospital expenditure. Tropical Medicine and International Health, 3, 145-150.
15. Le Sueur, D., Sharp, B. L. & Appleton, C. C. (1993). Historical perspective of the malaria problem in Natal with emphasis on the period 1928-1932. South African Journal of Science, 89, 232-239.
16. Lindsay, S.W. & Birley, M. H. (1997). Climate change and malaria transmission. Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, 90, 573-588.
17. Manly, B. (1986). Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Primer. London: Chapman & Hall.
18. Metselaar, D. & Van Theil, P. M. (1959). Classification of malaria. Tropical and Geographical Medicine, 11, 157-161.
19. Mirza, N. M., Macharia, W. M., Wafula, E. M., Agwanda, R. & Onyango, F. E. (1990). Mortality patterns in a rural Kenya community. East African Medical Journal, 67, 823-829.
20. Mtango, F. D. E. & Neuvians, D. (1986). Acute respiratory infections in children under five years. Control project in Bagamoyo District, Tanzania. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 80, 851-858.
21. Murray, C. J. L. & Lopez, A. D. (1997). Mortality by cause for eight regions of the world: Global Burden of Disease study. Lancet, 349, 1269-1276.
22. Omondi-Odhiambo, J., van Ginneken, J. K. & Voorhoeve, A. M. (1990). Mortality by cause of death in a rural area of Machakos District, Kenya in 1975-78. Journal of Biosocial Sciences, 22, 63-75.
23. Omumbo, J., Ouma, J., Rapuoda, B., Craig, M. H., le Sueur, D. & Snow, R. W. (1998). Mapping malaria transmission intensity using geographic information systems (GIS): an example from Kenya. Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, 92, 7-21.
24. Salum, F. M., Wilkes, T. J., Kivumbi, K. & Curtis, C. F. (1994). Mortality in under fives in a rural area of holoendemic malaria transmission. Acta Tropica, 58, 29-34.
25. Slutsker, L., Taylor, T. E., Wirima, J. J. & Steketee, R. W. (1994). In-hospital morbidity and mortality due to malariaassociated severe anaemia in two areas of Malawi with different patterns of malaria infection. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 88, 548-551.
26. Snow, R. W., Bastos de Azevedo, I., Lowe, B. S., Kabiru, E. W., Navill, C. G., Mwankusye, S., Kassiga, G., Marsh, K. & Teuscher, T. (1994). Severe childhood malaria in two areas of markedly different falciparum malaria transmission in East Africa. Acta Tropica, 57, 289-300.
27. Snow, R. W., Marsh, K. & Le Sueur, D. (1996). The need for maps of transmission intensity to guide malaria control in Africa. Parasitology Today, 12, 455-457.
28. Snow, R. W., Omumbo, J. A., Lowe, B., Molyneux, C. S., Obiero, J. O., Palmer, A., Weber, M. W., Pinder M., Nahlen, B., Obonyo, C., Newbold, C., Gupta, S. & Marsh, K. (1997). Relation between severe malaria morbidity in children and level of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Africa. Lancet, 349, 1650-1654.
29. Snow, R. W., Craig, M. H., Deichmann, U. & Le Sueur, D. (in press). A continental risk map for malaria mortality among African children. Parasitology Today.
30. Spencer, H. C., Kaseje, D. C., Mosley, W. H., Sempebwa, E. K. N., Houng, A. Y. & Roberts, J. M. (1987). Impact on mortality and fertility of a community-based malaria control programme in Saradidi, Kenya. Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, 81, 36-45.
31. Trape, J.-F., Pison, G., Preziosi, M. P., Enel, C., Desgrées du Loû, A., Delaunay, V., Samb, B., Lagarde, E., Molez, J. F. & Simondon, F. (1998). The impact of chloroquine resistance on malaria mortality. Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences, Série III - Sciences de la Vie, 321, 689-697.