Validation of a melanoma prognostic model

Archives of Dermatology

Volumn 134, Issue 12, 1998, Pages 1597-1601

  Margolis, David J ^a,f   Halpern, Allan C ^c   Rebbeck, Timothy ^a   Schuchter, Lynn ^b   Barnhill, Raymond L ^d   Fine, Judith ^e   Berwick, Marianne ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

^c MEMORIAL SLOAN KETTERING CANCER CENTER   (United States)

^d JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^e YALE CANCER CENTER   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; CANCER MORTALITY; CANCER SURVIVAL; FEMALE; HUMAN; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MELANOMA; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROGNOSIS; SKIN CANCER; STATISTICAL MODEL;

FEMALE; HUMANS; MALE; MELANOMA; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PROGNOSIS; SKIN NEOPLASMS;

EID: 0032415611     PISSN: 0003987X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1001/archderm.134.12.1597     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Swerlick RA, Chen S. The melanoma epidemic: more apparent than real? Mayo Clin Proc. 1997;72:559-564.
2. Rigel DS, Friedman RJ, Kopf AW, Robinson JK, Amonette RA. Melanoma incidence: if it quacks like a duck... . Arch Dermatol. 1997;133:656-659.
3. Merrill RM, Feuer EJ. Risk-adjusted cancer-incidence rates (United States). Cancer Causes Control. 1996;7:544-552.
4. Boring CC, Squires TS, Tong T. Cancer Statistics, 1993. CA Cancer J Clin. 1993; 43:7-26.
5. Halpern AC, Guerry D IV, Elder DE, Trock B, Synnestvedt M. A cohort study of melanoma in patients with dysplastic nevi. J Invest Dermatol. 1993;100(suppl): 346S-349S.
6. Schuchter L, Schultz DJ, Synnestvedt M, et al. A prognostic model for predicting 10-year survival in patients with primary melanoma: the Pigmented Lesion Group. Ann Intern Med. 1996;125:369-375.
7. Barnhill RL, Fine JA, Roush GC, Berwick M. Predicting five-year outcome for patients with cutaneous melanoma in a population-based study. Cancer. 1996;78:427-432.
8. Clark WH Jr, Elder DE, Guerry D IV, et al. Model predicting survival in stage I melanoma based on tumor progression. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1989;81:1893-1904.
9. Clark WH Jr, Ainsworth AM, Bernardino EA, Yang EA, Mihm CM. The developmental biology of primary human malignant melanoma. Semin Oncol. 1975;2:83-103.
10. Breslow A. Thickness, cross-sectional area and depth of invasion in the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma. Ann Surg. 1970;172:902-908.
11. Balch CM, Murad TM, Soong SJ, Ingalis AL, Halpern NB, Maddox WA. A multifactorial analysis of melanoma. Ann Surg. 1978;188:732-742.
12. Duncan LM, Berwick M, Bruijn JA, Byers HR, Mihm MC, Barnhill RL. Histopathologic recognition and grading of dysplastic melanocytic nevi: an interobserver agreement study. J Invest Dermatol. 1993;100(suppl):318S-321S.
13. Hartge P, Holly EA, Halpern A, et al. Recognition and classification of clinically dysplastic nevi from photographs: a study of interobserver variation. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 1995;4:37-40.
14. Piepkorn MW, Barnhill RL, Cannon-Albright LA, et al. A multiobserver, population-based analysis of histologic dysplasia in melanocytic nevi. J Am Acad Dermatol. 1994;30(pt1):707-714.
15. Berwick M, Begg CB, Fine JA, Roush GC, Barnhill RL. Screening for cutaneous melanoma by skin self-examination. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1996;88:17-23.
16. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology. 1982;143:29-36.
17. Swets JA. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science. 1988;240: 1285-1293.
18. Swets JA. Signal Detection Theory and ROC Analysis in Psychology and Diagnostics. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates; 1996:chap 4.
19. Wilks DS. Forecast verification. In: Wilks DS, ed. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. San Diego, Calif: Academic Press Inc; 1995:233-283.
20. Arkes HR, Dawson NV, Speroff T, et al. The covariance decomposition of the probability score and its use in evaluating prognostic estimates: SUPPORT Investigators. Med Decis Making. 1995;15:120-131.
21. Knorr KL, Hilsenbeck SG, Wenger CR, et al. Making the most of your prognostic factors. Breast Cancer Res Treat. 1992;22:251-262.
22. Camma C, Garofalo G, Almasio P, et al. A performance evaluation of the expert system "Jaundice" in comparison with that of three hepatologists. J Hepatol. 1991; 13:279-285.
23. Dolan JG, Bordley DR, Mushlin AI. An evaluation of clinicians' subjective prior probability estimates. Med Decis Making. 1986;6:216-223.
24. Chen YT, Dubrow R, Holford TR, et al. Malignant melanoma risk factors by anatomic site. Int J Cancer. 1996;67:636-643.
25. Murphy AH. What is a good forecast? an essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Weather Forecast. 1993;8:281-293.
26. Epstein ES. Long-range weather prediction: limits of predictablity and beyond. Weather Forecast. 1988;3:69-75.
27. Brier GW. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Rev. 1950;78:1-3.
28. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Mark DB. Multivariable prognostic models. Stat Med. 1996; 15:361-387.
29. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons Inc; 1989:chap 5.
30. Effron B, Gong G. A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross validation. Am Stat. 1983;37:36-48.
31. Campbell DT, Stanley JC. Experimental Design and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research. Boston, Mass: Houghton Mifflin Co; 1963:1-84.
32. Rothman KJ. Modern Epidemiology. Boston, Mass: Little Brown & Co Inc; 1986: chap 7.
33. Silberman G, Droitcour JA, Scullin EW. Cross Design Synthesis: A New Strategy for Medical Effectiveness Research. Gaithersburg, Md: US General Accounting Office; 1992.
34. Hosmer DW, Lemeshaw S. Goodness of fit tests for multiple logistic regression model. Commun Stat. 1980;A10:1063-1069.
35. Justice AC. The Development, Validation, and Evaluation of Prognostic Systems: An Application to the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS). Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania; 1996:1-272.
36. Hlatky MA, Califf RM, Harrell FE Jr, et al. Clinical judgment and therapeutic decision making. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1990;15:1-14.
37. Hlatky MA, Mark DB, Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Pryor DB. Rethinking sensitivity and specificity. Am J Cardiol. 1987;59:1195-1198.
38. Harrell FE Jr, Lee KL, Califf RM, Pryor DB, Rosati RA. Regression modelling strategies for improved prognostic prediction. Stat Med. 1984;3:143-152.
39. Justice AC, Aiken LH, Smith HL, Turner BJ. The role of functional status in predicting inpatient mortality with AIDS. J Clin Epidemiol. 1996;49:193-201.
40. Yates FJ. External correspondence: decompositions of the mean probability score. Organ Behav Hum Perform. 1982;30:132-156.
41. Redelmeirer DA, Bloch DA, Hickam DH. Assessing predictive accuracy: how to compare Brier scores. J Clin Epidemiol. 1991;44:1141-1146.
42. Murphy-Filkins R, Teres D, Lemeshow S, Hosmer DW. Effect of changing patient mix on the performance of an intensive care unit severity-of-illness model. Crit Care Med. 1996;24:1968-1973.