The utility of situational theory of publics for assessing public response to a disaster prediction

Public Relations Review

Volumn 24, Issue 4, 1998, Pages 489-508

  Major, Ann Marie ^a  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0032346381     PISSN: 03638111     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0363-8111(99)80113-1     Document Type: Article

References (101)

1. 1. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, The Great Earthquake Experiment: Risk Communication and Public Action (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993), pp. 6-7.
2. 2. In the United States, 57 people were killed in the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake and in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake 63 people were killed and 1,400 were injured. See Robert A. Stallings, Promoting Risk: Constructing the Earthquake Threat (NewYork: Aldine de Gruyter, 1995). Bolt reported that Chinese government officials estimated that 250,000 people were killed in the 1976 Tangshan, China earthquake. Unofficial estimates report as many as 650,000 fatalities. See Bruce A. Bolt, Earthquakes (New York: W.H. Freeman, 1988), p. 170.
3. 2. In the United States, 57 people were killed in the 1994 Northridge, California earthquake and in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake 63 people were killed and 1,400 were injured. See Robert A. Stallings, Promoting Risk: Constructing the Earthquake Threat (NewYork: Aldine de Gruyter, 1995). Bolt reported that Chinese government officials estimated that 250,000 people were killed in the 1976 Tangshan, China earthquake. Unofficial estimates report as many as 650,000 fatalities. See Bruce A. Bolt, Earthquakes (New York: W.H. Freeman, 1988), p. 170.
4. 3. Federal Emergency Management Agency, An Assessment of the Consequences and Preparations for a Catastrophic California Earthquake: Findings and Actions Taken (Washington, DC: FEMA, 1980).
5. 4. Ibid.
6. 5. In the United States, the earthquake risk is not confined to the West Coast region. The New Madrid Fault along the Mississippi River is an active seismic zone. Seismic activity also occurs along the the Eastern seaboard in five seismic zones from Maine to South Carolina. An earthquake occurred on August 12, 1929 in Attica, New York. It registered IX on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, which translates into an earthquake yielding considerable structural damage. On August 31, 1886, an X M.M. earthquake occurred in Charleston, South Carolina resulting in 60 deaths and considerable structural damage to buildings. See Bruce A. Bolt, op. cit., pp. 229-234 and pp. 238-241. The specific zones are the New England Seismic Zone, the New York-New Jersey-Pennsylvania Seismic Zone, the Central Virginia Seismic Zone, the Giles County, Virginia Seismic Zone, and the Charleston, South Carolina Seismic Zone. See S.T. Algermissen and Gilbert A. Bollinger, Hazard Assessment (Memphis, TN: Central United States Earthquake Consortium, 1993), p. 25.
7. 5. In the United States, the earthquake risk is not confined to the West Coast region. The New Madrid Fault along the Mississippi River is an active seismic zone. Seismic activity also occurs along the the Eastern seaboard in five seismic zones from Maine to South Carolina. An earthquake occurred on August 12, 1929 in Attica, New York. It registered IX on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, which translates into an earthquake yielding considerable structural damage. On August 31, 1886, an X M.M. earthquake occurred in Charleston, South Carolina resulting in 60 deaths and considerable structural damage to buildings. See Bruce A. Bolt, op. cit., pp. 229-234 and pp. 238-241. The specific zones are the New England Seismic Zone, the New York-New Jersey-Pennsylvania Seismic Zone, the Central Virginia Seismic Zone, the Giles County, Virginia Seismic Zone, and the Charleston, South Carolina Seismic Zone. See S.T. Algermissen and Gilbert A. Bollinger, Hazard Assessment (Memphis, TN: Central United States Earthquake Consortium, 1993), p. 25.
8. 6. Bruce A. Bolt, op. cit., pp. 168-169.
9. 7. Robert A. Stallings, op. cit., p. 42.
10. 8. James E. Grunig, "Communication Behaviors and Attitudes of Environmental Publics: Two Studies" Journalism Monographs 81 (1983), pp. 1-47.
11. 9. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.
12. 10. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg and Denise Heller Paz, Waiting for Disaster: Earthquake Watch in California (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1986).
13. 11. Darrin R. Lehman and Shelley E. Taylor, "Date with an Earthquake: Coping with Probable, Unpredictable Disaster," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 13 (1987), pp. 546-555.
14. 12. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit., p. 46.
15. 13. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
16. 14. George Alexander, "Quake Predictor Generating Tremors," Los Angeles Times (December 5, 1976), p. Al; Sue Hubbell, "Earthquake Fever," New Yorker (February 11, 1991), pp. 75-84. Henry Minturn issued predictions for two earthquakes on a Los Angeles television station. He claimed to hold a doctorate in geophysics and a master's degree in geology although no evidence was ever produced that he had earned those degrees. See Robert A. Stallings, op. cit.
17. 14. George Alexander, "Quake Predictor Generating Tremors," Los Angeles Times (December 5, 1976), p. Al; Sue Hubbell, "Earthquake Fever," New Yorker (February 11, 1991), pp. 75-84. Henry Minturn issued predictions for two earthquakes on a Los Angeles television station. He claimed to hold a doctorate in geophysics and a master's degree in geology although no evidence was ever produced that he had earned those degrees. See Robert A. Stallings, op. cit.
18. 14. George Alexander, "Quake Predictor Generating Tremors," Los Angeles Times (December 5, 1976), p. Al; Sue Hubbell, "Earthquake Fever," New Yorker (February 11, 1991), pp. 75-84. Henry Minturn issued predictions for two earthquakes on a Los Angeles television station. He claimed to hold a doctorate in geophysics and a master's degree in geology although no evidence was ever produced that he had earned those degrees. See Robert A. Stallings, op. cit.
19. 15. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.; E.L. Quarantelli, "Conceptualizing Disasters from a Sociological Perspective," International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 7 (1989), pp. 243-251; Robert A. Stallings, "Collective Behavior and the Prediction of an Earthquake: Preliminary Considerations," paper presented to the Pacific Sociological Association, Sacramento, CA., April 1977; Kathleen J. Tierney, William J. Petak, and Harlan Hahn, Disabled Persons and Earthquake Hazards (Boulder, CO: Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, 1988); Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
20. 15. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.; E.L. Quarantelli, "Conceptualizing Disasters from a Sociological Perspective," International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 7 (1989), pp. 243-251; Robert A. Stallings, "Collective Behavior and the Prediction of an Earthquake: Preliminary Considerations," paper presented to the Pacific Sociological Association, Sacramento, CA., April 1977; Kathleen J. Tierney, William J. Petak, and Harlan Hahn, Disabled Persons and Earthquake Hazards (Boulder, CO: Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, 1988); Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
21. 15. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.; E.L. Quarantelli, "Conceptualizing Disasters from a Sociological Perspective," International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 7 (1989), pp. 243-251; Robert A. Stallings, "Collective Behavior and the Prediction of an Earthquake: Preliminary Considerations," paper presented to the Pacific Sociological Association, Sacramento, CA., April 1977; Kathleen J. Tierney, William J. Petak, and Harlan Hahn, Disabled Persons and Earthquake Hazards (Boulder, CO: Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, 1988); Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
22. 15. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.; E.L. Quarantelli, "Conceptualizing Disasters from a Sociological Perspective," International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 7 (1989), pp. 243-251; Robert A. Stallings, "Collective Behavior and the Prediction of an Earthquake: Preliminary Considerations," paper presented to the Pacific Sociological Association, Sacramento, CA., April 1977; Kathleen J. Tierney, William J. Petak, and Harlan Hahn, Disabled Persons and Earthquake Hazards (Boulder, CO: Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, 1988); Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
23. 15. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.; E.L. Quarantelli, "Conceptualizing Disasters from a Sociological Perspective," International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 7 (1989), pp. 243-251; Robert A. Stallings, "Collective Behavior and the Prediction of an Earthquake: Preliminary Considerations," paper presented to the Pacific Sociological Association, Sacramento, CA., April 1977; Kathleen J. Tierney, William J. Petak, and Harlan Hahn, Disabled Persons and Earthquake Hazards (Boulder, CO: Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, 1988); Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
24. 16. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.; Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.
25. 16. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.; Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.
26. 17. James F. Davis, "The Ad Hoc Working Group on the December 2-3, 1990, Earthquake Prediction: Evaluation of the December 2-3, 1990, New Madrid Seismic Zone Prediction," a report of the State of California Division of Mines and Geology, Sacramento, CA., October 18, 1990, p. 1.
27. 18. Marlin Shipman, Gil Fowler and Russ Shain, "Whose Fault Was It? An Analysis of Newspaper Coverage of Iben Browning's New Madrid Fault Earthquake Prediction," International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters 11 (1993), pp. 379-389.
28. 19. Ibid., p. 385.
29. 20. Stewart resigned from his position at the university following the controversy over the failed prediction.
30. 21. Robert A. Stallings, 1995, op. cit.
31. 22. James E. Grunig, "Three Stopping Experiments on the Communication of Science," Journalism Quarterly 51 (1974), pp. 387-399; James E. Grunig, "Review of Research on Environmental Public Relations," Public Relations Review 3 (1977), pp. 36-58; James E. Grunig, "A New Measure of Public Opinion on Corporate Social Responsibility," Academy of Management Journal 22 (1979), pp. 738-764; James E. Grunig, "Communication Behaviors and Attitudes of Environmental Publics: Two Studies," Journalism Monographs 81 (1983), pp. 1-47; James E. Grunig, "Washington Reporter Publics of Corporate Public Affairs Programs," Journalism Quarterly 60 (1983), pp. 603-615; James, E. Grunig, "Sierra Club Study Shows Who Become Activists," Public Relations Review 15 (1989), pp. 8-24; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, "Reconstruction of a Situational Theory of Communication: Internal and External Identifiers of Publics for AIDS," paper presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Portland, OR, July 1988; James E. Grunig, Clifford L. Nelson, Susie J. Richburg, and Terry J. White, "Communication by Agricultural Publics: Internal and External Orientations," Journalism Quarterly 65 (1988), pp. 26-38.
32. 22. James E. Grunig, "Three Stopping Experiments on the Communication of Science," Journalism Quarterly 51 (1974), pp. 387-399; James E. Grunig, "Review of Research on Environmental Public Relations," Public Relations Review 3 (1977), pp. 36-58; James E. Grunig, "A New Measure of Public Opinion on Corporate Social Responsibility," Academy of Management Journal 22 (1979), pp. 738-764; James E. Grunig, "Communication Behaviors and Attitudes of Environmental Publics: Two Studies," Journalism Monographs 81 (1983), pp. 1-47; James E. Grunig, "Washington Reporter Publics of Corporate Public Affairs Programs," Journalism Quarterly 60 (1983), pp. 603-615; James, E. Grunig, "Sierra Club Study Shows Who Become Activists," Public Relations Review 15 (1989), pp. 8-24; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, "Reconstruction of a Situational Theory of Communication: Internal and External Identifiers of Publics for AIDS," paper presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Portland, OR, July 1988; James E. Grunig, Clifford L. Nelson, Susie J. Richburg, and Terry J. White, "Communication by Agricultural Publics: Internal and External Orientations," Journalism Quarterly 65 (1988), pp. 26-38.
33. 22. James E. Grunig, "Three Stopping Experiments on the Communication of Science," Journalism Quarterly 51 (1974), pp. 387-399; James E. Grunig, "Review of Research on Environmental Public Relations," Public Relations Review 3 (1977), pp. 36-58; James E. Grunig, "A New Measure of Public Opinion on Corporate Social Responsibility," Academy of Management Journal 22 (1979), pp. 738-764; James E. Grunig, "Communication Behaviors and Attitudes of Environmental Publics: Two Studies," Journalism Monographs 81 (1983), pp. 1-47; James E. Grunig, "Washington Reporter Publics of Corporate Public Affairs Programs," Journalism Quarterly 60 (1983), pp. 603-615; James, E. Grunig, "Sierra Club Study Shows Who Become Activists," Public Relations Review 15 (1989), pp. 8-24; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, "Reconstruction of a Situational Theory of Communication: Internal and External Identifiers of Publics for AIDS," paper presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Portland, OR, July 1988; James E. Grunig, Clifford L. Nelson, Susie J. Richburg, and Terry J. White, "Communication by Agricultural Publics: Internal and External Orientations," Journalism Quarterly 65 (1988), pp. 26-38.
34. 22. James E. Grunig, "Three Stopping Experiments on the Communication of Science," Journalism Quarterly 51 (1974), pp. 387-399; James E. Grunig, "Review of Research on Environmental Public Relations," Public Relations Review 3 (1977), pp. 36-58; James E. Grunig, "A New Measure of Public Opinion on Corporate Social Responsibility," Academy of Management Journal 22 (1979), pp. 738-764; James E. Grunig, "Communication Behaviors and Attitudes of Environmental Publics: Two Studies," Journalism Monographs 81 (1983), pp. 1-47; James E. Grunig, "Washington Reporter Publics of Corporate Public Affairs Programs," Journalism Quarterly 60 (1983), pp. 603-615; James, E. Grunig, "Sierra Club Study Shows Who Become Activists," Public Relations Review 15 (1989), pp. 8-24; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, "Reconstruction of a Situational Theory of Communication: Internal and External Identifiers of Publics for AIDS," paper presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Portland, OR, July 1988; James E. Grunig, Clifford L. Nelson, Susie J. Richburg, and Terry J. White, "Communication by Agricultural Publics: Internal and External Orientations," Journalism Quarterly 65 (1988), pp. 26-38.
35. 22. James E. Grunig, "Three Stopping Experiments on the Communication of Science," Journalism Quarterly 51 (1974), pp. 387-399; James E. Grunig, "Review of Research on Environmental Public Relations," Public Relations Review 3 (1977), pp. 36-58; James E. Grunig, "A New Measure of Public Opinion on Corporate Social Responsibility," Academy of Management Journal 22 (1979), pp. 738-764; James E. Grunig, "Communication Behaviors and Attitudes of Environmental Publics: Two Studies," Journalism Monographs 81 (1983), pp. 1-47; James E. Grunig, "Washington Reporter Publics of Corporate Public Affairs Programs," Journalism Quarterly 60 (1983), pp. 603-615; James, E. Grunig, "Sierra Club Study Shows Who Become Activists," Public Relations Review 15 (1989), pp. 8-24; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, "Reconstruction of a Situational Theory of Communication: Internal and External Identifiers of Publics for AIDS," paper presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Portland, OR, July 1988; James E. Grunig, Clifford L. Nelson, Susie J. Richburg, and Terry J. White, "Communication by Agricultural Publics: Internal and External Orientations," Journalism Quarterly 65 (1988), pp. 26-38.
36. 22. James E. Grunig, "Three Stopping Experiments on the Communication of Science," Journalism Quarterly 51 (1974), pp. 387-399; James E. Grunig, "Review of Research on Environmental Public Relations," Public Relations Review 3 (1977), pp. 36-58; James E. Grunig, "A New Measure of Public Opinion on Corporate Social Responsibility," Academy of Management Journal 22 (1979), pp. 738-764; James E. Grunig, "Communication Behaviors and Attitudes of Environmental Publics: Two Studies," Journalism Monographs 81 (1983), pp. 1-47; James E. Grunig, "Washington Reporter Publics of Corporate Public Affairs Programs," Journalism Quarterly 60 (1983), pp. 603-615; James, E. Grunig, "Sierra Club Study Shows Who Become Activists," Public Relations Review 15 (1989), pp. 8-24; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, "Reconstruction of a Situational Theory of Communication: Internal and External Identifiers of Publics for AIDS," paper presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Portland, OR, July 1988; James E. Grunig, Clifford L. Nelson, Susie J. Richburg, and Terry J. White, "Communication by Agricultural Publics: Internal and External Orientations," Journalism Quarterly 65 (1988), pp. 26-38.
37. 22. James E. Grunig, "Three Stopping Experiments on the Communication of Science," Journalism Quarterly 51 (1974), pp. 387-399; James E. Grunig, "Review of Research on Environmental Public Relations," Public Relations Review 3 (1977), pp. 36-58; James E. Grunig, "A New Measure of Public Opinion on Corporate Social Responsibility," Academy of Management Journal 22 (1979), pp. 738-764; James E. Grunig, "Communication Behaviors and Attitudes of Environmental Publics: Two Studies," Journalism Monographs 81 (1983), pp. 1-47; James E. Grunig, "Washington Reporter Publics of Corporate Public Affairs Programs," Journalism Quarterly 60 (1983), pp. 603-615; James, E. Grunig, "Sierra Club Study Shows Who Become Activists," Public Relations Review 15 (1989), pp. 8-24; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, "Reconstruction of a Situational Theory of Communication: Internal and External Identifiers of Publics for AIDS," paper presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Portland, OR, July 1988; James E. Grunig, Clifford L. Nelson, Susie J. Richburg, and Terry J. White, "Communication by Agricultural Publics: Internal and External Orientations," Journalism Quarterly 65 (1988), pp. 26-38.
38. 22. James E. Grunig, "Three Stopping Experiments on the Communication of Science," Journalism Quarterly 51 (1974), pp. 387-399; James E. Grunig, "Review of Research on Environmental Public Relations," Public Relations Review 3 (1977), pp. 36-58; James E. Grunig, "A New Measure of Public Opinion on Corporate Social Responsibility," Academy of Management Journal 22 (1979), pp. 738-764; James E. Grunig, "Communication Behaviors and Attitudes of Environmental Publics: Two Studies," Journalism Monographs 81 (1983), pp. 1-47; James E. Grunig, "Washington Reporter Publics of Corporate Public Affairs Programs," Journalism Quarterly 60 (1983), pp. 603-615; James, E. Grunig, "Sierra Club Study Shows Who Become Activists," Public Relations Review 15 (1989), pp. 8-24; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, "Reconstruction of a Situational Theory of Communication: Internal and External Identifiers of Publics for AIDS," paper presented at the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, Portland, OR, July 1988; James E. Grunig, Clifford L. Nelson, Susie J. Richburg, and Terry J. White, "Communication by Agricultural Publics: Internal and External Orientations," Journalism Quarterly 65 (1988), pp. 26-38.
39. 23. James E. Grunig, 1979, op. cit.; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, op. cit.; L. Erwin Atwood and Ann Marie Major, "Applying Situational Theory to an International Political Problem: Two Studies," Journalism Quarterly 68 (1991), pp. 200-210.
40. 23. James E. Grunig, 1979, op. cit.; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, op. cit.; L. Erwin Atwood and Ann Marie Major, "Applying Situational Theory to an International Political Problem: Two Studies," Journalism Quarterly 68 (1991), pp. 200-210.
41. 23. James E. Grunig, 1979, op. cit.; James E. Grunig and Linda Childers, op. cit.; L. Erwin Atwood and Ann Marie Major, "Applying Situational Theory to an International Political Problem: Two Studies," Journalism Quarterly 68 (1991), pp. 200-210.
42. 24. John Dewey, The Public and Its Problems (Chicago, IL: Swallow Press, 1927).
43. 25. Problem recognition was measured by asking respondents: "How often do you stop to think about a major earthquake hitting the area? Do you think about it very often, sometimes, not very often, or almost never?" Constraint recognition was measured by asking respondents: "If you personally tried to do something to help protect yourself and your family from a major earthquake, do you think your efforts would make a lot of difference, some difference, not much difference, or no difference at all?"
44. 26. Peter Clarke and Gerald F. Kline, "Media Effects Reconsidered: Some New Strategies for Communication Research," Communication Research 1 (1974), pp. 224-240, p. 233.
45. 27. Ibid., op. cit., p. 233.
46. 28. James E. Grunig, 1983, op. cit., p. 12.
47. 29. Susan T. Fiske and Shelley E. Taylor, Social Cognition, 2nd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991); Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communicated Risk," Social Problems 39 (1992), pp. 40-57; Shelly E. Taylor and Jonathan D. Brown, "Illusions of Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health," Psychological Bulletin 103 (1988), pp. 193-210; Shelley E. Taylor, Rebecca L. Collins, Laurie A. Skokan, and Lisa Aspenwall, "Maintaining Positive Illusions in the Face of Negative Information: Getting the Facts Without Letting Them Get to You," Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 8 (1989), pp. 114-129; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
48. 29. Susan T. Fiske and Shelley E. Taylor, Social Cognition, 2nd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991); Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communicated Risk," Social Problems 39 (1992), pp. 40-57; Shelly E. Taylor and Jonathan D. Brown, "Illusions of Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health," Psychological Bulletin 103 (1988), pp. 193-210; Shelley E. Taylor, Rebecca L. Collins, Laurie A. Skokan, and Lisa Aspenwall, "Maintaining Positive Illusions in the Face of Negative Information: Getting the Facts Without Letting Them Get to You," Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 8 (1989), pp. 114-129; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
49. 29. Susan T. Fiske and Shelley E. Taylor, Social Cognition, 2nd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991); Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communicated Risk," Social Problems 39 (1992), pp. 40-57; Shelly E. Taylor and Jonathan D. Brown, "Illusions of Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health," Psychological Bulletin 103 (1988), pp. 193-210; Shelley E. Taylor, Rebecca L. Collins, Laurie A. Skokan, and Lisa Aspenwall, "Maintaining Positive Illusions in the Face of Negative Information: Getting the Facts Without Letting Them Get to You," Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 8 (1989), pp. 114-129; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
50. 29. Susan T. Fiske and Shelley E. Taylor, Social Cognition, 2nd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991); Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communicated Risk," Social Problems 39 (1992), pp. 40-57; Shelly E. Taylor and Jonathan D. Brown, "Illusions of Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health," Psychological Bulletin 103 (1988), pp. 193-210; Shelley E. Taylor, Rebecca L. Collins, Laurie A. Skokan, and Lisa Aspenwall, "Maintaining Positive Illusions in the Face of Negative Information: Getting the Facts Without Letting Them Get to You," Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 8 (1989), pp. 114-129; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
51. 29. Susan T. Fiske and Shelley E. Taylor, Social Cognition, 2nd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1991); Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, "Warnings During Disaster: Normalizing Communicated Risk," Social Problems 39 (1992), pp. 40-57; Shelly E. Taylor and Jonathan D. Brown, "Illusions of Well-Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health," Psychological Bulletin 103 (1988), pp. 193-210; Shelley E. Taylor, Rebecca L. Collins, Laurie A. Skokan, and Lisa Aspenwall, "Maintaining Positive Illusions in the Face of Negative Information: Getting the Facts Without Letting Them Get to You," Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology 8 (1989), pp. 114-129; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
52. 30. Information seeking was measured by an index created from two interpersonal discussion items: "How much have you talked with members of your family about earthquakes? How much have you talked with friends about earthquakes?" Response options were "Have you talked a lot (4), some (3), not much (2), or not at all (1)?" For the two items, Cronbach's α = .76. Information processing from media use was measured by an index of the three following items: "How much have you recently read about earthquakes from newspapers? How much have you recently heard about earthquakes from television? How much have you recently heard about earthquakes from radio?" Response options were "Have you heard a great deal (4), some (3), not much (2), or nothing at all (1)." For the three items, Cronbach's α = .61.
53. 31. James E. Grunig, 1983, 1989, op. cit.
54. 32. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.
55. 33. Ibid.; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
56. 33. Ibid.; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
57. 34. James E. Grunig, "The Message-Attitude-Behavior Relationship: Communication Behaviors of Organizations," Communication Research 9 (1982), pp. 163-200.
58. 35. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.
59. 36. Personalized risk was measured by an index created from three questions. Those items were "I don't believe an earthquake would really hurt me (reverse coded). There is nothing I can do about earthquakes, so I don't try to prepare for that kind of emergency. The way I look at it, nothing is going to help if there were an earthquake." The response options were (4) "strongly agree," (3) "agree somewhat," (2) "disagree somewhat," (1) "strongly disagree." The higher the score, the greater the personalized risk. For the three items, Cronbach's α = .71.
60. 37. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.
61. 38. Ford N. Burkhart, Media, Emergency Warnings, and Citizen Response. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991); Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
62. 38. Ford N. Burkhart, Media, Emergency Warnings, and Citizen Response. (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991); Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
63. 39. Darrin R. Lehman and Shelley E. Taylor, op. cit.
64. 40. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.
65. 41. James E. Grunig, 1983, op. cit.
66. 42. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
67. 43. James E. Grunig, 1983, op. cit. Level of involvement was measured by asking respondents "How important is the earthquake problem to you personally? It is very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important?"
68. 44. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
69. 45. To estimate the respondent's perceived risk of death or severe injury, respondents were asked "What do you think the chances are that you might be killed or seriously injured if we had a major earthquake? Do you think it is very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?"
70. 46. An index was created from the following three items: "Are there any other people besides scientists who can sometimes tell when an earthquake is going to happen? Please tell me if you think any of these people can predict earthquakes? Religious leaders or prophets? Astrologers, fortune tellers, or other mystics? Political leaders?" For the three items, Cronbach's α= .48.
71. 47. Robert A. Stallings, "Social Aspects Related to the Dissemination and Credibility of Earthquake Predictions in Cross-Cultural Perspective," Proceedings of Earthquake Prediction (Tokyo, Japan: Terra Scientific and UNESCO, 1982), pp. 58-67, p. 65.
72. 48. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit., pp. 418-419.
73. 49. Proportions for the crosstabulation of education by situational publics are presented in the demographic section of the findings. For the entire sample of 629 respondents, educational breakdowns for the respondents were as follows: 10.7% had not completed high school; 37.5% had graduated from high school; 29.4% had taken some college courses; 15.4% had graduated from college; and 5.1% had some graduate school education.
74. 50. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
75. 51. The index to measure social factors influencing response included three items. "Do you think what you talked about with members of your family has had any influence on how important you think the earthquake problem is? Do you think what you talked about with friends has had any influence on how important you think the earthquake problem is? Do you think what you talked about with people you work with has had any influence on how important you think the earthquake problem is?" The response options included "a lot of influence" (4), "some influence" (3), "not much influence" (2), or "no influence at all" (1). For these three items, Cronbach's α = .81. The index that was created to measure perceived news media influence included four items. "How much do you think the news from newspapers has influenced your opinion about how important the earthquake problem is? How much do you think the news from television has influenced your opinion about how important the earthquake problem is? How much do you think the news from radio has influenced your opinion about how important the earthquake problem is? How much do you think the news from newsmagazines has influenced your opinion about how important the earthquake problem is?" The response options included "a lot of influence" (4), "some influence" (3), "not much influence" (2), and "no influence at all" (1). For the four items, Cronbach's α = .80.
76. 52. James E. Grunig, 1982, 1983, 1989, op. cit.
77. 53. Shelley E. Taylor, "Adjustment to Threatening Events: A Theory of Cognitive Adaptation, American Psychologist 38 (1983), pp. 1161-1173.
78. 54. L. Erwin Atwood, "Illusions of Media Power: The Third-Person Effect," Journalism Quarterly 71 (1994), pp. 269-281; Jeremy Cohen and Robert G. Davis, "Third-Person Effects and the Differential Impact in Negative Political Advertising," Journalism Quarterly 68 (1991), pp. 680-688; Dominic L. Lasorsa, "The Real and Perceived Effects of 'Amerika,''' Journalism Quarterly 66 (1989), pp. 373-378, 529; Richard M. Perloff, "Ego-Involvement and the Third Person Effect of Television News Coverage," Communication Research 16 (1989), pp. 236-262.
79. 54. L. Erwin Atwood, "Illusions of Media Power: The Third-Person Effect," Journalism Quarterly 71 (1994), pp. 269-281; Jeremy Cohen and Robert G. Davis, "Third-Person Effects and the Differential Impact in Negative Political Advertising," Journalism Quarterly 68 (1991), pp. 680-688; Dominic L. Lasorsa, "The Real and Perceived Effects of 'Amerika,''' Journalism Quarterly 66 (1989), pp. 373-378, 529; Richard M. Perloff, "Ego-Involvement and the Third Person Effect of Television News Coverage," Communication Research 16 (1989), pp. 236-262.
80. 54. L. Erwin Atwood, "Illusions of Media Power: The Third-Person Effect," Journalism Quarterly 71 (1994), pp. 269-281; Jeremy Cohen and Robert G. Davis, "Third-Person Effects and the Differential Impact in Negative Political Advertising," Journalism Quarterly 68 (1991), pp. 680-688; Dominic L. Lasorsa, "The Real and Perceived Effects of 'Amerika,''' Journalism Quarterly 66 (1989), pp. 373-378, 529; Richard M. Perloff, "Ego-Involvement and the Third Person Effect of Television News Coverage," Communication Research 16 (1989), pp. 236-262.
81. 54. L. Erwin Atwood, "Illusions of Media Power: The Third-Person Effect," Journalism Quarterly 71 (1994), pp. 269-281; Jeremy Cohen and Robert G. Davis, "Third-Person Effects and the Differential Impact in Negative Political Advertising," Journalism Quarterly 68 (1991), pp. 680-688; Dominic L. Lasorsa, "The Real and Perceived Effects of 'Amerika,''' Journalism Quarterly 66 (1989), pp. 373-378, 529; Richard M. Perloff, "Ego-Involvement and the Third Person Effect of Television News Coverage," Communication Research 16 (1989), pp. 236-262.
82. 55. James A. Fields and Howard Schuman, "Public Beliefs about the Beliefs of the Public," Public Opinion Quarterly 40 (1976-77), pp. 427-448; Carroll J. Glynn, "The Communication of Public Opinion," Journalism Quarterly 64 (1987), pp. 688-697.
83. 55. James A. Fields and Howard Schuman, "Public Beliefs about the Beliefs of the Public," Public Opinion Quarterly 40 (1976-77), pp. 427-448; Carroll J. Glynn, "The Communication of Public Opinion," Journalism Quarterly 64 (1987), pp. 688-697.
84. 56. Societal-level constraint recognition was measured by asking respondents: "Do you suppose that most other people around here feel they can do anything to protect themselves and their families from a major earthquake? Do they think it would make a lot of difference, some difference, not much difference, or no difference at all?"
85. 57. Perceived preparedness was measured by asking the respondents: "How prepared do you feel you are in the event of a major earthquake? Are you very well prepared, somewhat prepared, not well prepared, or not at all prepared?"
86. 58. Willingness to pay more taxes was created from the following four items: "Would you be willing to pay more taxes to make schools and other public buildings more earthquake resistant? Would you be willing to pay more taxes to improve preparedness programs? Would you be willing to pay more taxes to strengthen bridges and roads? Would you be willing to pay more taxes to study earthquake predicting techniques?" Response options were "yes" (2) and "no" (1). Cronbach's α = .74.
87. 59. James E. Grunig, 1982, 1983, op. cit.
88. 60. Marija J. Norusis and SPSS, Inc., SPSS Professional Statistics 6.1 (Chicago, IL: SPSS, Inc., 1994).
89. 61. William R. Klecka, Discriminant Analysis (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1980).
90. 62. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
91. 63. Contingency coefficient.
92. 64. James E. Grunig, 1983, op. cit.
93. 65. The means are provided in the output of the discriminant analysis to facilitate the interpretation of the associations between the variables associated with the function.
94. 66. Because the constrained were associated negatively with the second function, they were associated positively with level of involvement (-.34).
95. 67. Harry B. Williams, "Human Factors in Warning-and-Response Systems," in George H. Grosser, Henry Wechsler and Milton Greenblatt (eds.), Threat of Impending Disaster. Contributions to the Psychology of Stress (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1964), pp. 79-104.
96. 68. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.
97. 69. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
98. 70. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.; Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, op. cit.; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
99. 70. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.; Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, op. cit.; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
100. 70. Dennis S. Mileti and Colleen Fitzpatrick, op. cit.; Dennis S. Mileti and Paul W. O'Brien, op. cit.; Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.
101. 71. Ralph H. Turner, Joanne M. Nigg, and Denise Heller Paz, op. cit.