Political settlements in Northern Ireland and South Africa

Political Studies

Volumn 46, Issue 5, 1998, Pages 853-870

  McGarry, John ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0032325304     PISSN: 00323217     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1467-9248.00171     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. 1 H. Adam and K. Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options for the New South Africa (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993); H. Adam, 'The politics of ethnic identity: comparing South Africa', Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18 (1995), 457-75; H. Dickie-Clark, 'The study of conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland', Social Dynamics, 2 (1976), 53-9; H. Giliomee and J. Gagiano, The Elusive Search for Peace, South Africa, Israel, Northern Ireland (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990); A. Guelke, 'The peace process in South Africa, Israel and Northern Ireland: a farewell to arms?', Irish Studies in International Affairs, 5 (1994), 93-106; A. Guelke, 'Promoting peace in deeply divided societies: Frank Wright Commemorative Lecture' (Dept. of Political Science, Queen's University Belfast, 1994); A. Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful: the role of analogy in Northern Ireland's peace process', unpublished manuscript (1997); M. Macdonald, Children of Wrath: Political Violence in Northern Ireland (Cambridge, Polity, 1986); and R. Taylor, 'A Consociational Path to Peace in Northern Ireland and South Africa?' in A. Guelke (ed.), New Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Conflict (Aldershot, Avebury, 1994), pp. 161-74.
2. 1 H. Adam and K. Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options for the New South Africa (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993); H. Adam, 'The politics of ethnic identity: comparing South Africa', Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18 (1995), 457-75; H. Dickie-Clark, 'The study of conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland', Social Dynamics, 2 (1976), 53-9; H. Giliomee and J. Gagiano, The Elusive Search for Peace, South Africa, Israel, Northern Ireland (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990); A. Guelke, 'The peace process in South Africa, Israel and Northern Ireland: a farewell to arms?', Irish Studies in International Affairs, 5 (1994), 93-106; A. Guelke, 'Promoting peace in deeply divided societies: Frank Wright Commemorative Lecture' (Dept. of Political Science, Queen's University Belfast, 1994); A. Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful: the role of analogy in Northern Ireland's peace process', unpublished manuscript (1997); M. Macdonald, Children of Wrath: Political Violence in Northern Ireland (Cambridge, Polity, 1986); and R. Taylor, 'A Consociational Path to Peace in Northern Ireland and South Africa?' in A. Guelke (ed.), New Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Conflict (Aldershot, Avebury, 1994), pp. 161-74.
3. 1 H. Adam and K. Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options for the New South Africa (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993); H. Adam, 'The politics of ethnic identity: comparing South Africa', Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18 (1995), 457-75; H. Dickie-Clark, 'The study of conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland', Social Dynamics, 2 (1976), 53-9; H. Giliomee and J. Gagiano, The Elusive Search for Peace, South Africa, Israel, Northern Ireland (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990); A. Guelke, 'The peace process in South Africa, Israel and Northern Ireland: a farewell to arms?', Irish Studies in International Affairs, 5 (1994), 93-106; A. Guelke, 'Promoting peace in deeply divided societies: Frank Wright Commemorative Lecture' (Dept. of Political Science, Queen's University Belfast, 1994); A. Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful: the role of analogy in Northern Ireland's peace process', unpublished manuscript (1997); M. Macdonald, Children of Wrath: Political Violence in Northern Ireland (Cambridge, Polity, 1986); and R. Taylor, 'A Consociational Path to Peace in Northern Ireland and South Africa?' in A. Guelke (ed.), New Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Conflict (Aldershot, Avebury, 1994), pp. 161-74.
4. 1 H. Adam and K. Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options for the New South Africa (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993); H. Adam, 'The politics of ethnic identity: comparing South Africa', Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18 (1995), 457-75; H. Dickie-Clark, 'The study of conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland', Social Dynamics, 2 (1976), 53-9; H. Giliomee and J. Gagiano, The Elusive Search for Peace, South Africa, Israel, Northern Ireland (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990); A. Guelke, 'The peace process in South Africa, Israel and Northern Ireland: a farewell to arms?', Irish Studies in International Affairs, 5 (1994), 93-106; A. Guelke, 'Promoting peace in deeply divided societies: Frank Wright Commemorative Lecture' (Dept. of Political Science, Queen's University Belfast, 1994); A. Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful: the role of analogy in Northern Ireland's peace process', unpublished manuscript (1997); M. Macdonald, Children of Wrath: Political Violence in Northern Ireland (Cambridge, Polity, 1986); and R. Taylor, 'A Consociational Path to Peace in Northern Ireland and South Africa?' in A. Guelke (ed.), New Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Conflict (Aldershot, Avebury, 1994), pp. 161-74.
5. 1 H. Adam and K. Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options for the New South Africa (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993); H. Adam, 'The politics of ethnic identity: comparing South Africa', Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18 (1995), 457-75; H. Dickie-Clark, 'The study of conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland', Social Dynamics, 2 (1976), 53-9; H. Giliomee and J. Gagiano, The Elusive Search for Peace, South Africa, Israel, Northern Ireland (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990); A. Guelke, 'The peace process in South Africa, Israel and Northern Ireland: a farewell to arms?', Irish Studies in International Affairs, 5 (1994), 93-106; A. Guelke, 'Promoting peace in deeply divided societies: Frank Wright Commemorative Lecture' (Dept. of Political Science, Queen's University Belfast, 1994); A. Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful: the role of analogy in Northern Ireland's peace process', unpublished manuscript (1997); M. Macdonald, Children of Wrath: Political Violence in Northern Ireland (Cambridge, Polity, 1986); and R. Taylor, 'A Consociational Path to Peace in Northern Ireland and South Africa?' in A. Guelke (ed.), New Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Conflict (Aldershot, Avebury, 1994), pp. 161-74.
6. 1 H. Adam and K. Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options for the New South Africa (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993); H. Adam, 'The politics of ethnic identity: comparing South Africa', Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18 (1995), 457-75; H. Dickie-Clark, 'The study of conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland', Social Dynamics, 2 (1976), 53-9; H. Giliomee and J. Gagiano, The Elusive Search for Peace, South Africa, Israel, Northern Ireland (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990); A. Guelke, 'The peace process in South Africa, Israel and Northern Ireland: a farewell to arms?', Irish Studies in International Affairs, 5 (1994), 93-106; A. Guelke, 'Promoting peace in deeply divided societies: Frank Wright Commemorative Lecture' (Dept. of Political Science, Queen's University Belfast, 1994); A. Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful: the role of analogy in Northern Ireland's peace process', unpublished manuscript (1997); M. Macdonald, Children of Wrath: Political Violence in Northern Ireland (Cambridge, Polity, 1986); and R. Taylor, 'A Consociational Path to Peace in Northern Ireland and South Africa?' in A. Guelke (ed.), New Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Conflict (Aldershot, Avebury, 1994), pp. 161-74.
7. 1 H. Adam and K. Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options for the New South Africa (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993); H. Adam, 'The politics of ethnic identity: comparing South Africa', Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18 (1995), 457-75; H. Dickie-Clark, 'The study of conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland', Social Dynamics, 2 (1976), 53-9; H. Giliomee and J. Gagiano, The Elusive Search for Peace, South Africa, Israel, Northern Ireland (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990); A. Guelke, 'The peace process in South Africa, Israel and Northern Ireland: a farewell to arms?', Irish Studies in International Affairs, 5 (1994), 93-106; A. Guelke, 'Promoting peace in deeply divided societies: Frank Wright Commemorative Lecture' (Dept. of Political Science, Queen's University Belfast, 1994); A. Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful: the role of analogy in Northern Ireland's peace process', unpublished manuscript (1997); M. Macdonald, Children of Wrath: Political Violence in Northern Ireland (Cambridge, Polity, 1986); and R. Taylor, 'A Consociational Path to Peace in Northern Ireland and South Africa?' in A. Guelke (ed.), New Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Conflict (Aldershot, Avebury, 1994), pp. 161-74.
8. 1 H. Adam and K. Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options for the New South Africa (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993); H. Adam, 'The politics of ethnic identity: comparing South Africa', Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18 (1995), 457-75; H. Dickie-Clark, 'The study of conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland', Social Dynamics, 2 (1976), 53-9; H. Giliomee and J. Gagiano, The Elusive Search for Peace, South Africa, Israel, Northern Ireland (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990); A. Guelke, 'The peace process in South Africa, Israel and Northern Ireland: a farewell to arms?', Irish Studies in International Affairs, 5 (1994), 93-106; A. Guelke, 'Promoting peace in deeply divided societies: Frank Wright Commemorative Lecture' (Dept. of Political Science, Queen's University Belfast, 1994); A. Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful: the role of analogy in Northern Ireland's peace process', unpublished manuscript (1997); M. Macdonald, Children of Wrath: Political Violence in Northern Ireland (Cambridge, Polity, 1986); and R. Taylor, 'A Consociational Path to Peace in Northern Ireland and South Africa?' in A. Guelke (ed.), New Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Conflict (Aldershot, Avebury, 1994), pp. 161-74.
9. 1 H. Adam and K. Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind: Options for the New South Africa (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1993); H. Adam, 'The politics of ethnic identity: comparing South Africa', Ethnic and Racial Studies, 18 (1995), 457-75; H. Dickie-Clark, 'The study of conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland', Social Dynamics, 2 (1976), 53-9; H. Giliomee and J. Gagiano, The Elusive Search for Peace, South Africa, Israel, Northern Ireland (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990); A. Guelke, 'The peace process in South Africa, Israel and Northern Ireland: a farewell to arms?', Irish Studies in International Affairs, 5 (1994), 93-106; A. Guelke, 'Promoting peace in deeply divided societies: Frank Wright Commemorative Lecture' (Dept. of Political Science, Queen's University Belfast, 1994); A. Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful: the role of analogy in Northern Ireland's peace process', unpublished manuscript (1997); M. Macdonald, Children of Wrath: Political Violence in Northern Ireland (Cambridge, Polity, 1986); and R. Taylor, 'A Consociational Path to Peace in Northern Ireland and South Africa?' in A. Guelke (ed.), New Perspectives on the Northern Ireland Conflict (Aldershot, Avebury, 1994), pp. 161-74.
10. 2 The alleged intractability of the conflict in South Africa and Northern Ireland (and Israel/ Palestine) explains the title of Giliomee and Gagiano's book, The Elusive Search for Peace.
11. 3 The invitation to de Klerk is cited in Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful', p. 7. South Africa is not the only society that is supposed to have held lessons for Northern Ireland. In the early 1970s, the British government believed that Northern Ireland's politicians would benefit from travelling to the Netherlands to see how its Protestants and Catholics worked out their differences.
12. 4 'South African peace an inspiration to Irish movement, says President', Irish Times, 27 March 1996.
13. 5 Irish Times, 16 June 1997.
14. 6 'Leader - ANC's lesson for Sinn Fein', Independent, 29 April 1998. An Observer journalist opened an article which purported to explain Trimble's embrace of the Good Friday Agreement with the claim that 'It was on the distant veld of a South African game park that David Trimble began the journey in earnest from leader of one tribe to the architect of a new inclusiveness in Ulster', 'Trimble's long march to a new Unionism', Observer, 4 July 1998.
15. 7 See the series of articles by C. McCrudden, J. McGarry and B. O'Leary in the Sunday Business Post (Dublin): 'Answering some big questions', 19 April 1998; 'Dance of the ministries', 26 April 1998; 'All-Ireland bodies at work', 3 May 1998; 'Equality and Social Justice', 10 May 1998; 'The heart of the agreement: a bi-national future with double protection', 17 May 1998.
16. 8 These three uses of the South African analogy are not the only ones, but I think they are the most important. Each of them is associated with a comprehensive explanation of, and prescription for, the Northern Ireland conflict. Other uses of the analogy seek to draw detailed, rather than broad lessons, such as whether Northern Ireland would benefit from a Truth Commission or whether South Africa's experience with the decommissioning of weapons or police reform is relevant for Northern Ireland. See, for example 'What the Irish can learn from South Africa', Boston Globe, 16 April 1998; 'Time not right for truth commission', Irish Times, 14 May 1998; 'ANC's lesson for Sinn Fein', Independent, 30 April 1998.
17. 8 These three uses of the South African analogy are not the only ones, but I think they are the most important. Each of them is associated with a comprehensive explanation of, and prescription for, the Northern Ireland conflict. Other uses of the analogy seek to draw detailed, rather than broad lessons, such as whether Northern Ireland would benefit from a Truth Commission or whether South Africa's experience with the decommissioning of weapons or police reform is relevant for Northern Ireland. See, for example 'What the Irish can learn from South Africa', Boston Globe, 16 April 1998; 'Time not right for truth commission', Irish Times, 14 May 1998; 'ANC's lesson for Sinn Fein', Independent, 30 April 1998.
18. 8 These three uses of the South African analogy are not the only ones, but I think they are the most important. Each of them is associated with a comprehensive explanation of, and prescription for, the Northern Ireland conflict. Other uses of the analogy seek to draw detailed, rather than broad lessons, such as whether Northern Ireland would benefit from a Truth Commission or whether South Africa's experience with the decommissioning of weapons or police reform is relevant for Northern Ireland. See, for example 'What the Irish can learn from South Africa', Boston Globe, 16 April 1998; 'Time not right for truth commission', Irish Times, 14 May 1998; 'ANC's lesson for Sinn Fein', Independent, 30 April 1998.
19. 9 For a summary of the ways in which Irish nationalists have compared themselves with the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa, see Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful', pp. 1-2 and 4. I have relied on Guelke's account in writing parts of the next two paragraphs.
20. 10 'Mandela's IRA remarks criticised' Irish Times, 21 October 1992. Kader Asmal, a leading ANC minister, who lived in Ireland, has likened the penal system with apartheid and Cromwell's policy of deporting Catholics to Connacht with the Apartheid regime's homelands policy, Irish Times, 27 March 1996.
21. 10 'Mandela's IRA remarks criticised' Irish Times, 21 October 1992. Kader Asmal, a leading ANC minister, who lived in Ireland, has likened the penal system with apartheid and Cromwell's policy of deporting Catholics to Connacht with the Apartheid regime's homelands policy, Irish Times, 27 March 1996.
22. 11 Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful', p. 8.
23. 12 J. Hume, A New Ireland: Politics, Peace and Reconciliation (Boulder CO, Roberts Rinehart, 1996), p. 117. A case can be made for separating nationalist uses of the analogy into distinct republican and constitutionalist categories. Both prefer that the context for a settlement be Ireland, but the latter is more prepared than the former to accept a continuing United Kingdom context also.
24. 13 In the same paragraph where Hume refers to the need for a unionist de Klerk, he puts forward the conventional nationalist position that partition is at the root of Northern Ireland's problems: 'There are parallels between the South African situation and our own. If the solution to the problem in South Africa had been to draw a line on the map, create a small white state, with two whites to every black person, and to make the rest of South Africa independent, would there ever have been a possibility of peace? Would not the whites have been forced to discriminate totally against the black minority in order to ensure that it never became a majority? This is precisely what happened in Ireland, and we are still living with the consequences'.
25. 14 One of the consequences of this difference in perception is that while a number of South African whites came to regard the apartheid regime as illegitimate, unionists remain solidly united on the legitimacy of the union. This may be one reason why unionists have been more reluctant to negotiate a compromise with the opposition than South African whites.
26. 15 Irish Times, 29 April 1997; Cited, Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful' 1997, p. 1.
27. 15 Irish Times, 29 April 1997; Cited, Guelke, 'Comparatively peaceful' 1997, p. 1.
28. 16 The social transformation movement enjoys considerable support among Northern Ireland's chattering classes. It includes those who champion integrated education, 'normal' class politics over 'sectarian' politics (the Worker's Party, union groups, the Alliance Party), and gender politics (Women's movement). Its latest intellectual champions include the following: (the appropriately named) M. Love, Peace-building through Reconciliation in Northern Ireland (Aldershot, Avebury, 1995); J. Ruane and J. Todd, The Dynamics of Conflict in Northern Ireland: Power, Conflict and Emancipation (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1996); S. Ryan, 'Peace building strategies and intercommunal conflict: approaches to the transformation of divided societies', Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 2 (1996), 216-31.
29. 16 The social transformation movement enjoys considerable support among Northern Ireland's chattering classes. It includes those who champion integrated education, 'normal' class politics over 'sectarian' politics (the Worker's Party, union groups, the Alliance Party), and gender politics (Women's movement). Its latest intellectual champions include the following: (the appropriately named) M. Love, Peace-building through Reconciliation in Northern Ireland (Aldershot, Avebury, 1995); J. Ruane and J. Todd, The Dynamics of Conflict in Northern Ireland: Power, Conflict and Emancipation (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1996); S. Ryan, 'Peace building strategies and intercommunal conflict: approaches to the transformation of divided societies', Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 2 (1996), 216-31.
30. 16 The social transformation movement enjoys considerable support among Northern Ireland's chattering classes. It includes those who champion integrated education, 'normal' class politics over 'sectarian' politics (the Worker's Party, union groups, the Alliance Party), and gender politics (Women's movement). Its latest intellectual champions include the following: (the appropriately named) M. Love, Peace-building through Reconciliation in Northern Ireland (Aldershot, Avebury, 1995); J. Ruane and J. Todd, The Dynamics of Conflict in Northern Ireland: Power, Conflict and Emancipation (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1996); S. Ryan, 'Peace building strategies and intercommunal conflict: approaches to the transformation of divided societies', Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 2 (1996), 216-31.
31. 17 Taylor, 'A consociational path to peace'.
32. 18 R. Taylor, J. Cock and A. Habib, 'Projecting peace in apartheid South Africa', Paper presented at the meeting of the International Political Science Association, Seoul, South Korea, 1997; R. Taylor and M. Orkin, 'The Racialisation of Social Scientific Research on South Africa' in P. Ratcliffe (ed.), Sociology, the State and Social Change (London, Macmillan, forthcoming); R. Taylor and M. Shaw, 'The Dying Days of Apartheid', in A. Norval and D. Howarth (eds), South Africa in Transition (London, Macmillan, forthcoming).
33. 18 R. Taylor, J. Cock and A. Habib, 'Projecting peace in apartheid South Africa', Paper presented at the meeting of the International Political Science Association, Seoul, South Korea, 1997; R. Taylor and M. Orkin, 'The Racialisation of Social Scientific Research on South Africa' in P. Ratcliffe (ed.), Sociology, the State and Social Change (London, Macmillan, forthcoming); R. Taylor and M. Shaw, 'The Dying Days of Apartheid', in A. Norval and D. Howarth (eds), South Africa in Transition (London, Macmillan, forthcoming).
34. 18 R. Taylor, J. Cock and A. Habib, 'Projecting peace in apartheid South Africa', Paper presented at the meeting of the International Political Science Association, Seoul, South Korea, 1997; R. Taylor and M. Orkin, 'The Racialisation of Social Scientific Research on South Africa' in P. Ratcliffe (ed.), Sociology, the State and Social Change (London, Macmillan, forthcoming); R. Taylor and M. Shaw, 'The Dying Days of Apartheid', in A. Norval and D. Howarth (eds), South Africa in Transition (London, Macmillan, forthcoming).
35. 19 B. O'Leary and J. McGarry, The Politics of Antagonism: Understanding Northern Ireland (London, Athlone, 1996), chaps 7-9.
36. 20 The Republic did not abandon irredentism. It abandoned its claim to have the right to exercise legal jurisdiction over Northern Ireland without the consent of a majority there, while retaining an 'irredentist' aspiration to unity.
37. 21 Two of the leading experts on ethnic conflict, Donald Horowitz and Arend Lijphart, who disagree on almost everything else, share the view that ethnic and racial divisions will be of importance in the future South Africa. Horowitz, who believes the notion of a non-racial society in South Africa is 'utopian' and the plural society's analogue to the search for a classless society, writes that 'South Africa's politics will not be nonracial and nonethnic but multiracial and multiethnic', D. Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa? Constitutional Engineering in a Divided Society (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1991) pp. 29, 85. According to Lijphart, writing in 1985, a future South Africa will be an 'ethnically plural society on a par with most of the black states in Africa. [Intra-black ethnic cleavages] currently muted by the feelings of black solidarity in opposition to minority rule . . . are bound to reassert themselves in a situation of universal suffrage', A. Lijphart, Power-sharing in South Africa (Berkeley, Institute of International Studies, University of California Press, 1985), pp. 19-20.
38. 21 Two of the leading experts on ethnic conflict, Donald Horowitz and Arend Lijphart, who disagree on almost everything else, share the view that ethnic and racial divisions will be of importance in the future South Africa. Horowitz, who believes the notion of a non-racial society in South Africa is 'utopian' and the plural society's analogue to the search for a classless society, writes that 'South Africa's politics will not be nonracial and nonethnic but multiracial and multiethnic', D. Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa? Constitutional Engineering in a Divided Society (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1991) pp. 29, 85. According to Lijphart, writing in 1985, a future South Africa will be an 'ethnically plural society on a par with most of the black states in Africa. [Intra-black ethnic cleavages] currently muted by the feelings of black solidarity in opposition to minority rule . . . are bound to reassert themselves in a situation of universal suffrage', A. Lijphart, Power-sharing in South Africa (Berkeley, Institute of International Studies, University of California Press, 1985), pp. 19-20.
39. 22 Guelke dismisses the idea of a non-racial South Africa as a 'myth', A. Guelke, 'Dissecting the South African miracle: African parallels', Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 2 (1996), pp. 142-5. In his view, South Africa's major current division is between Africans and non-Africans (Afrikaners, English, Asians, Coloureds). Giliomee criticizes the idea that 'racial and ethnic cleavages will quickly dissipate' arguing, variously, that Afrikaners form 'a clearly defined group', the white community 'displays a powerful group consciousness', and that there are '[p]otentially serious ethnic divisions . . . among Africans', H. Giliomee, 'Democratization in South Africa', Political Science Quarterly, 110 (1995), pp. 100-1.
40. 22 Guelke dismisses the idea of a non-racial South Africa as a 'myth', A. Guelke, 'Dissecting the South African miracle: African parallels', Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, 2 (1996), pp. 142-5. In his view, South Africa's major current division is between Africans and non-Africans (Afrikaners, English, Asians, Coloureds). Giliomee criticizes the idea that 'racial and ethnic cleavages will quickly dissipate' arguing, variously, that Afrikaners form 'a clearly defined group', the white community 'displays a powerful group consciousness', and that there are '[p]otentially serious ethnic divisions . . . among Africans', H. Giliomee, 'Democratization in South Africa', Political Science Quarterly, 110 (1995), pp. 100-1.
41. 23 Figures from Guelke, 'Dissecting the South African miracle', p. 145. Taylor's response is that what appears to be a racial vote is really a class vote, given the huge socio-economic disparities between white and black. However, he provides no evidence that it is class rather than race, or rather than class and race, which motivates voters. Intuitively, it seems more plausible to suggest that both class and race played a part in voting decisions. This would make South Africa what Horowitz describes as a 'ranked' society, one in which class and race or ethnicity are reinforcing, D. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1985), p. 22. Similar arguments - that what appears to be an ethnic division is really a class division - have been made about voting patterns in Northern Ireland. For criticism of such arguments, see J. McGarry and B. O'Leary, Explaining Northern Ireland: Broken Images (Oxford, Blackwell, 1995), chap. 4.
42. 23 Figures from Guelke, 'Dissecting the South African miracle', p. 145. Taylor's response is that what appears to be a racial vote is really a class vote, given the huge socio-economic disparities between white and black. However, he provides no evidence that it is class rather than race, or rather than class and race, which motivates voters. Intuitively, it seems more plausible to suggest that both class and race played a part in voting decisions. This would make South Africa what Horowitz describes as a 'ranked' society, one in which class and race or ethnicity are reinforcing, D. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1985), p. 22. Similar arguments - that what appears to be an ethnic division is really a class division - have been made about voting patterns in Northern Ireland. For criticism of such arguments, see J. McGarry and B. O'Leary, Explaining Northern Ireland: Broken Images (Oxford, Blackwell, 1995), chap. 4.
43. 23 Figures from Guelke, 'Dissecting the South African miracle', p. 145. Taylor's response is that what appears to be a racial vote is really a class vote, given the huge socio-economic disparities between white and black. However, he provides no evidence that it is class rather than race, or rather than class and race, which motivates voters. Intuitively, it seems more plausible to suggest that both class and race played a part in voting decisions. This would make South Africa what Horowitz describes as a 'ranked' society, one in which class and race or ethnicity are reinforcing, D. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1985), p. 22. Similar arguments - that what appears to be an ethnic division is really a class division - have been made about voting patterns in Northern Ireland. For criticism of such arguments, see J. McGarry and B. O'Leary, Explaining Northern Ireland: Broken Images (Oxford, Blackwell, 1995), chap. 4.
44. 24 The divisions in South Africa, in Horowitz's view, 'are very much on the order of the cleavages that in some countries translated into serious post-independence conflict and violence . . . To ignore them in planning for a future South Africa would be to repeat the same fallacy of assuming in the 1950s and 1960s that an inclusive "nationalism" would be the universal solvent of differences in post-colonial Africa, a fallacy for which many people paid dearly', Horowitz, A Democratic South Africa?, p. 85.
45. 25 Transformers sometimes seek to undermine consociationalism by identifying it with radical views based on primordialism or socio-biology. Thus Taylor claims that Lijphart's writings are 'tied to plural society theory, in which, reflecting the prevailing academic consensus of the late colonial period, the key underlying source of conflict in societies marked by social and cultural pluralism is taken to lie in deep primordial forces of ethnic identity', 'A consociational path to peace', p. 162. Also see Paul Dixon's critique of work by Brendan O'Leary and John McGarry, 'The politics of antagonism: explaining McGarry and O'Leary', Irish Political Studies, 11 (1996), 130-41. Such a criticism if accurate would be serious, given the evidence that ethnic and national identities are politically and socially constructed, albeit over a considerable time period. Reasonable consociationalists, however, do not claim that ethnic ties are primordial or biological, but that in deeply divided societies they are durable, cannot be imagined out of existence, and must be accommodated in political institutions. The consociationalist argument is that particularly in certain contexts - deeply divided societies, where divisions are long-standing and when there is intra-group violence - it is more realistic to accept that different groups will continue to exist than to seek the 'deconstruction' of group ties.
46. 26 B. O'Leary and P. Arthur, 'Introduction. Northern Ireland as a Site of State-and Nation-Building Failures', in J. McGarry and B. O'Leary (eds), The Future of Northern Ireland (Oxford, Clarendon, 1990), pp. 1-47.
47. 27 The Stormont government did seek to reinforce the nationalist-unionist divide, but it can hardly be credited with inventing it. There is no counterpart in Northern Ireland, or anywhere else for that matter, for the apartheid's state's massive attempt to engineer and reinforce identities through policies based on the Population Registration Act, including pass laws, Bantustans, and the proscription of interracial marriage and sexual relations.
48. 28 See Taylor and Shaw, 'The Dying Days of Apartheid'.
49. 29 There is a related normative question of whether we should seek to overcome national identities in the same way we should seek to eliminate racism. Racism is exclusionary and almost always hierarchical. Nationalism, however, is often consistent with inclusive appeals and respect for other nations. Nationalisms can produce conflict, but it is possible to prevent this through institutional arrangements which accommodate rather than transcend national identities.
50. 30 Arguably, South Africa's whites, controlling the security apparatus, were also well-placed to reject majoritarianism. They could take solace, however, in their power in the private sector and in the bureaucracy, a luxury which Northern Ireland's nationalists do not possess.
51. 31 McCartney, leader of the UK Unionist Party and an MP, advocates the need for individual rights within a single (British) state. Like transformers, he criticizes consociationalism (power-sharing) as rewarding sectarianism. His 'anti-sectarianism' does not stop him from maintaining a close political alliance with the Rev. Ian Paisley!
52. 32 Taylor, 'A consociational path to peace', p. 166.
53. 33 In both South Africa, 1994-99, and Northern Ireland, from 1998, executive seats are distributed proportionally among parties represented in the legislature.
54. 34 The Agreement provides for two decision-making rules in the Assembly: (i) either 'parallel consent', i.e. a majority of those voting, including a majority of the unionist and nationalist designations voting: (ii) or a 'weighted majority', i.e. 60% of members voting, including at least 40% of each of the unionist and nationalist designations voting. At the first meeting of the Assembly, members were required to designate themselves as nationalist, unionist, or 'other'.
55. 35 Successful consociational arrangements are 'biodegradable'. If they succeed in establishing trust in a divided society, and there is agreement, normal majoritarian institutions can be established. This is what happened in the Netherlands - see A. Lijphart, The Politics of Accommodation: Pluralism and Democracy in the Netherlands (Berkeley, University of California Press, 1968). As The Economist put it just after the May referendum, 'the long-term task [is] clear: to help Northern Irish politics evolve into a condition in which this fragile constitutional structure can be ditched', 30 May 1998, p. 17.
56. 36 This is not to say that only the dominant group need show flexibility. Unless one side has been defeated, conflict resolution normally requires flexibility on all sides. The flexibility of one group, moreover, is often related to the flexibility of its enemies, i.e. accords flow out of a dynamic and interactive environment. In the following account, I explain that the moderation of whites and unionists was influenced by the moderation of their adversaries, although this was not the only, or the most important, influence on their actions.
57. 37 Think of what would have happened if F. W. de Klerk had lead whites in the 1960s. Would he have advocated an end to apartheid? Would he have remained leader if he had suggested this?
58. 38 P. W. Botha warned his fellow Afrikaners in a celebrated speech in 1979 that they must 'adapt or die'. Cited in D. O'Meara, Forty Lost Years (Randburg, Ravan, 1996), p. 255.
59. 39 H. Giliomee, 'South Africa's democratic surprise', paper delivered to a conference on 'Good Surprises: Peace Processes in South Africa, Northern Ireland and Israel Palestine', Duke University, November 1995, p. 12. Also see Giliomee, 'Democratization in South Africa', pp. 86-8, and Guelke, 'The peace process', p. 100.
60. 39 H. Giliomee, 'South Africa's democratic surprise', paper delivered to a conference on 'Good Surprises: Peace Processes in South Africa, Northern Ireland and Israel Palestine', Duke University, November 1995, p. 12. Also see Giliomee, 'Democratization in South Africa', pp. 86-8, and Guelke, 'The peace process', p. 100.
61. 39 H. Giliomee, 'South Africa's democratic surprise', paper delivered to a conference on 'Good Surprises: Peace Processes in South Africa, Northern Ireland and Israel Palestine', Duke University, November 1995, p. 12. Also see Giliomee, 'Democratization in South Africa', pp. 86-8, and Guelke, 'The peace process', p. 100.
62. 40 There is a consensus among experts on South Africa that economic collapse and the collapse of apartheid were inextricably linked. See R. Price, The Apartheid State in Crisis: Political Transformation in South Africa 1975-1990 (New York, Oxford University Press, 1991), p. 232; Giliomee, 'South Africa's democratic surprise', p. 7; Adam and Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind, p. 56; O'Meara, Forty Lost Years, p. 463.
63. 40 There is a consensus among experts on South Africa that economic collapse and the collapse of apartheid were inextricably linked. See R. Price, The Apartheid State in Crisis: Political Transformation in South Africa 1975-1990 (New York, Oxford University Press, 1991), p. 232; Giliomee, 'South Africa's democratic surprise', p. 7; Adam and Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind, p. 56; O'Meara, Forty Lost Years, p. 463.
64. 40 There is a consensus among experts on South Africa that economic collapse and the collapse of apartheid were inextricably linked. See R. Price, The Apartheid State in Crisis: Political Transformation in South Africa 1975-1990 (New York, Oxford University Press, 1991), p. 232; Giliomee, 'South Africa's democratic surprise', p. 7; Adam and Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind, p. 56; O'Meara, Forty Lost Years, p. 463.
65. 40 There is a consensus among experts on South Africa that economic collapse and the collapse of apartheid were inextricably linked. See R. Price, The Apartheid State in Crisis: Political Transformation in South Africa 1975-1990 (New York, Oxford University Press, 1991), p. 232; Giliomee, 'South Africa's democratic surprise', p. 7; Adam and Moodley, The Opening of the Apartheid Mind, p. 56; O'Meara, Forty Lost Years, p. 463.
66. 41 For the importance of stability as a foundation of apartheid ideology, see H. Giliomee and L. Schlemmer, From Apartheid to Nation-Building (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990), chap. 2. There is also a consensus among academic commentators that the end of the Cold War reinforced whites' willingness to negotiate, although there is debate about whether this strengthened the government and made it more confident about negotiations or bolstered the opposition and made negotiations with it more necessary. In the view of most commentators, the main effect of the collapse of eastern European communism was to increase white confidence about negotiations, as it rolled back the communist threat in Africa, deprived the ANC/SACP of external support, and, by casting considerable doubt on socialist economic planning, made the ANC retreat from left-wing positions. Guelke argues, however, that it was the ANC which benefitted from the end of the Cold War. A. Guelke, 'The impact of the end of the Cold War on the South African transition', Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 14 (1996), 87-100.
67. 41 For the importance of stability as a foundation of apartheid ideology, see H. Giliomee and L. Schlemmer, From Apartheid to Nation-Building (Cape Town, Oxford University Press, 1990), chap. 2. There is also a consensus among academic commentators that the end of the Cold War reinforced whites' willingness to negotiate, although there is debate about whether this strengthened the government and made it more confident about negotiations or bolstered the opposition and made negotiations with it more necessary. In the view of most commentators, the main effect of the collapse of eastern European communism was to increase white confidence about negotiations, as it rolled back the communist threat in Africa, deprived the ANC/SACP of external support, and, by casting considerable doubt on socialist economic planning, made the ANC retreat from left-wing positions. Guelke argues, however, that it was the ANC which benefitted from the end of the Cold War. A. Guelke, 'The impact of the end of the Cold War on the South African transition', Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 14 (1996), 87-100.
68. 42 B. O'Leary, T. Lyne, J. Marshall, and B. Rowthorn, Northern Ireland: Sharing Authority (London, Institute for Public Policy Research, 1993), pp. 81-2.
69. 43 Of course, violence does not always produce such self-negating actions. There are plenty of examples where it results in profound polarization and greater violence, as in Rwanda, Burundi, Bosnia or Sri Lanka.
70. 44 Figures from P. Doherty, 'The Numbers Game: The Demographic Context of Politics' in A. Aughey and D. Morrow (eds), Northern Ireland Politics (London, Longman, 1996), p. 202.
71. 45 Figures from B. O'Leary and G. Evans, 'Northern Ireland: la fin de siècle, the twilight of the second Protestant ascendancy and Sinn Fein's second coming', Parliamentary Affairs, 50 (1997), p. 673. In the last election before the Agreement, the Westminster elections of 1997, nationalists won 40.2% of the province's vote.
72. 46 Figures based on Brendan O'Leary, 'Party Support in Northern Ireland, 1969-1989 in J. McGarry and B. O'Leary (eds), The Future of Northern Ireland (Oxford, Clarendon, 1990), Table A4.1, p. 343.
73. 47 According to one confidential source, loyalist paramilitaries gave weakening Protestant numbers as a reason for seeking compromise during private conversations (personal communication, 5 December 1997).
74. 48 As Brendan O'Leary and I have written, 'The choice offered by the AIA to unionists was: negotiate a power-sharing devolved government which will make irrelevant the proceedings of the intergovernmental conference or allow the intergovernmental conference to become the bridgehead of a very significant Irish dimension', The Politics of Antagonism: Understanding Northern Ireland (London: Athlone, 1993 and 1996), p. 235.
75. 49 None of the constitutional initiatives undertaken since the conflict began in 1969 have originated from unionists. Initiatives in 1973-74, 1975, 1979 and 1982 all failed, as a result of unionist unwillingness to change the constitutional status quo, and nationalist unwillingness to accept it.
76. 50 See I. Lustick, 'Ending protracted conflicts: The Oslo peace process between political partnership and legality', Cornell International Law Journal, 30 (1997), 741-57.
77. 51 The Economist, 10 January 1997, p. 47. To be precise, unionists liked the peace very much, it was the process they were unhappy with.
78. 52 In the final days of the negotiations, The Economist described the British pressure on Trimble as 'intense'. The UUP's deputy leader, John Taylor, explained that rejecting the deal 'would have left the party almost completely isolated within British polities', 18 April 1998, p. 19.
79. 53 South Africa may not have experienced a shift from racialism to non-racialism, Taylor's analysis notwithstanding, but it has experienced a remarkably peaceful transition from white rule to majority rule. Serious opposition to the transition among whites never emerged. The white Freedom Front, which sought a better deal for whites than that won by de Klerk, achieved only 2.1% of the vote in the 1994 elections, compared to the Nationalist Party's 20% (Guelke, 'Dissecting the South African Miracle', p. 144). White extremist opposition, after an abortive show of force just before the 1994 elections, effectively evaporated. In Northern Ireland, on the other hand, the agreement has divided Unionism in half. Exit polls from the Referendum on 22 May indicated that only a slight majority of Unionists voted 'yes'. In the elections of June 1998, Unionists supporting the Agreement won 30 seats and 23.9% of the vote, while Unionist rejectionists won 28 seats and 24.9% of the vote.