The politics of interpretation: Rationality, culture, and transition

Politics and Society

Volumn 26, Issue 4, 1998, Pages 603-642

  Bates, Robert H ^a   De Figueiredo Jr , Rui J P ^a   Weingast, Barry R ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0032272115     PISSN: 00323292     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0032329298026004007     Document Type: Article

References (158)

1. When we refer to "rational choice theory," we refer to the theory of games and decisions. We therefore omit many alternative forms, such as the new institutionalism, open economy politics, theories of rent seeking, and collective action. See Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990); Ronald Rogowski, Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989); Robert H. Bates, Open Economy Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997); Anne O. Krueger, "The Political Economy of the Rent Seeking Society," American Economic Review 64 (1974): 291-303; Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1965).
2. When we refer to "rational choice theory," we refer to the theory of games and decisions. We therefore omit many alternative forms, such as the new institutionalism, open economy politics, theories of rent seeking, and collective action. See Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990); Ronald Rogowski, Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989); Robert H. Bates, Open Economy Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997); Anne O. Krueger, "The Political Economy of the Rent Seeking Society," American Economic Review 64 (1974): 291-303; Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1965).
3. When we refer to "rational choice theory," we refer to the theory of games and decisions. We therefore omit many alternative forms, such as the new institutionalism, open economy politics, theories of rent seeking, and collective action. See Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990); Ronald Rogowski, Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989); Robert H. Bates, Open Economy Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997); Anne O. Krueger, "The Political Economy of the Rent Seeking Society," American Economic Review 64 (1974): 291-303; Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1965).
4. When we refer to "rational choice theory," we refer to the theory of games and decisions. We therefore omit many alternative forms, such as the new institutionalism, open economy politics, theories of rent seeking, and collective action. See Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990); Ronald Rogowski, Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989); Robert H. Bates, Open Economy Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997); Anne O. Krueger, "The Political Economy of the Rent Seeking Society," American Economic Review 64 (1974): 291-303; Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1965).
5. When we refer to "rational choice theory," we refer to the theory of games and decisions. We therefore omit many alternative forms, such as the new institutionalism, open economy politics, theories of rent seeking, and collective action. See Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990); Ronald Rogowski, Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1989); Robert H. Bates, Open Economy Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997); Anne O. Krueger, "The Political Economy of the Rent Seeking Society," American Economic Review 64 (1974): 291-303; Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1965).
6. See, for example, David P. Baron and John A. Ferejohn, "Bargaining in Legislatures," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 1181-1206; Gary W. Cox and Mathew D. McCubbins, Legislative Leviathan: Party Government in the House (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993); Keith Krehbiel, Information and Legislative Organization (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991); Kenneth Shepsle, "Institutional Arrangements and Equilibria in Multidimensional Voting Models," American Journal of Political Science 23 (1979): 27-51; and Barry R. Weingast and William J. Marshall, "The Industrial Organization of Congress; or, Why Legislatures, Like Firms, Are Not Organized as Markets," Journal of Political Economy 96 (1988): 132-163.
7. See, for example, David P. Baron and John A. Ferejohn, "Bargaining in Legislatures," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 1181-1206; Gary W. Cox and Mathew D. McCubbins, Legislative Leviathan: Party Government in the House (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993); Keith Krehbiel, Information and Legislative Organization (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991); Kenneth Shepsle, "Institutional Arrangements and Equilibria in Multidimensional Voting Models," American Journal of Political Science 23 (1979): 27-51; and Barry R. Weingast and William J. Marshall, "The Industrial Organization of Congress; or, Why Legislatures, Like Firms, Are Not Organized as Markets," Journal of Political Economy 96 (1988): 132-163.
8. See, for example, David P. Baron and John A. Ferejohn, "Bargaining in Legislatures," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 1181-1206; Gary W. Cox and Mathew D. McCubbins, Legislative Leviathan: Party Government in the House (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993); Keith Krehbiel, Information and Legislative Organization (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991); Kenneth Shepsle, "Institutional Arrangements and Equilibria in Multidimensional Voting Models," American Journal of Political Science 23 (1979): 27-51; and Barry R. Weingast and William J. Marshall, "The Industrial Organization of Congress; or, Why Legislatures, Like Firms, Are Not Organized as Markets," Journal of Political Economy 96 (1988): 132-163.
9. See, for example, David P. Baron and John A. Ferejohn, "Bargaining in Legislatures," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 1181-1206; Gary W. Cox and Mathew D. McCubbins, Legislative Leviathan: Party Government in the House (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993); Keith Krehbiel, Information and Legislative Organization (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991); Kenneth Shepsle, "Institutional Arrangements and Equilibria in Multidimensional Voting Models," American Journal of Political Science 23 (1979): 27-51; and Barry R. Weingast and William J. Marshall, "The Industrial Organization of Congress; or, Why Legislatures, Like Firms, Are Not Organized as Markets," Journal of Political Economy 96 (1988): 132-163.
10. See, for example, David P. Baron and John A. Ferejohn, "Bargaining in Legislatures," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 1181-1206; Gary W. Cox and Mathew D. McCubbins, Legislative Leviathan: Party Government in the House (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993); Keith Krehbiel, Information and Legislative Organization (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991); Kenneth Shepsle, "Institutional Arrangements and Equilibria in Multidimensional Voting Models," American Journal of Political Science 23 (1979): 27-51; and Barry R. Weingast and William J. Marshall, "The Industrial Organization of Congress; or, Why Legislatures, Like Firms, Are Not Organized as Markets," Journal of Political Economy 96 (1988): 132-163.
11. See David Epstein and Sharyn O'Halloran, Delegating Powers: A Transaction Cost Politics Approach to Policy Making under Separate Powers (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999).
12. See William N. Eskridge, Jr., "Reneging on History? Playing the Court/Congress/President Civil Rights Game," California Law Review 79 (1992): 613-684.
13. Mathew McCubbins, Roger Noll, and Barry R. Weingast, "Structure and Process, Politics and Policy: Administrative Arrangements and the Political Control of Agencies," Virginia Law Review 75 (March 1989): 431-482; Terry M. Moe, "The Political Structure of Agencies," in John E. Chubb and Paul E. Peterson, eds., Can the Government Govern? (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1989); John A. Ferejohn and Charles R. Shipan, "Congressional Influence on Administrative Agencies: A Case Study of Telecommunications Policy," in Lawrence C. Dodd and Bruce I. Oppenheimer, eds., Congress Reconsidered, 4th ed. (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1989).
14. Mathew McCubbins, Roger Noll, and Barry R. Weingast, "Structure and Process, Politics and Policy: Administrative Arrangements and the Political Control of Agencies," Virginia Law Review 75 (March 1989): 431-482; Terry M. Moe, "The Political Structure of Agencies," in John E. Chubb and Paul E. Peterson, eds., Can the Government Govern? (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1989); John A. Ferejohn and Charles R. Shipan, "Congressional Influence on Administrative Agencies: A Case Study of Telecommunications Policy," in Lawrence C. Dodd and Bruce I. Oppenheimer, eds., Congress Reconsidered, 4th ed. (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1989).
15. Mathew McCubbins, Roger Noll, and Barry R. Weingast, "Structure and Process, Politics and Policy: Administrative Arrangements and the Political Control of Agencies," Virginia Law Review 75 (March 1989): 431-482; Terry M. Moe, "The Political Structure of Agencies," in John E. Chubb and Paul E. Peterson, eds., Can the Government Govern? (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1989); John A. Ferejohn and Charles R. Shipan, "Congressional Influence on Administrative Agencies: A Case Study of Telecommunications Policy," in Lawrence C. Dodd and Bruce I. Oppenheimer, eds., Congress Reconsidered, 4th ed. (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1989).
16. See Bruno S. Frey, Not Just for the Money: An Economic Theory of Personal Motivation (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 1998).
17. See, for example, Gary W. Cox, Making Votes Count (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Michael Laver and Kenneth A. Shepsle, Making and Breaking Governments (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996); J. Mark Ramseyer and Frances McCall Rosenbluth, Japan's Political Marketplace (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1993); Geoffrey Garrett, Partisan Politics in the Global Economy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998); and George Tsebelis, Nested Games (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
18. See, for example, Gary W. Cox, Making Votes Count (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Michael Laver and Kenneth A. Shepsle, Making and Breaking Governments (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996); J. Mark Ramseyer and Frances McCall Rosenbluth, Japan's Political Marketplace (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1993); Geoffrey Garrett, Partisan Politics in the Global Economy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998); and George Tsebelis, Nested Games (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
19. See, for example, Gary W. Cox, Making Votes Count (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Michael Laver and Kenneth A. Shepsle, Making and Breaking Governments (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996); J. Mark Ramseyer and Frances McCall Rosenbluth, Japan's Political Marketplace (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1993); Geoffrey Garrett, Partisan Politics in the Global Economy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998); and George Tsebelis, Nested Games (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
20. See, for example, Gary W. Cox, Making Votes Count (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Michael Laver and Kenneth A. Shepsle, Making and Breaking Governments (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996); J. Mark Ramseyer and Frances McCall Rosenbluth, Japan's Political Marketplace (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1993); Geoffrey Garrett, Partisan Politics in the Global Economy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998); and George Tsebelis, Nested Games (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
21. See, for example, Gary W. Cox, Making Votes Count (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Michael Laver and Kenneth A. Shepsle, Making and Breaking Governments (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996); J. Mark Ramseyer and Frances McCall Rosenbluth, Japan's Political Marketplace (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1993); Geoffrey Garrett, Partisan Politics in the Global Economy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998); and George Tsebelis, Nested Games (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990).
22. See, for example, Barry M. Rubin, Islamic Fundamentalism in Egyptian Politics (New York: St. Martin's, 1990); American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Islamic Fundamentalism and the Gulf Crisis (Chicago: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1990). It is important to note that this is not exclusive to non-Western countries and cultures but is simply more stark.
23. See, for example, Barry M. Rubin, Islamic Fundamentalism in Egyptian Politics (New York: St. Martin's, 1990); American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Islamic Fundamentalism and the Gulf Crisis (Chicago: American Academy of Arts and Sciences, 1990). It is important to note that this is not exclusive to non-Western countries and cultures but is simply more stark.
24. See, for example, Crawford Young, The Rising Tide of Cultural Pluralism (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1993); Donald Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985).
25. See, for example, Crawford Young, The Rising Tide of Cultural Pluralism (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1993); Donald Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1985).
26. Myron Weiner and Samuel P. Huntington, Understanding Political Development (Boston: Little, Brown, 1987).
27. Recall Zolberg's discussion of what he called "moments of madness" in which people detach themselves from prevailing political alignments and realize that "all is possible." It is notable that Zolberg decries the blunt instruments offered by instrumentalist theories for the study of such defining political moments. "So much in the conventional paraphernalia of political science is founded on axiomatic instrumentalism," he writes, "that we do not know what to make of [such] events." Aristide R. Zolberg, "Moments of Madness," Politics and Society 2 (1972): 183-207. But note also the recent contributions of Susanne Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades," World Politics 47 (1994): 42-101, and Timur Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995).
28. Recall Zolberg's discussion of what he called "moments of madness" in which people detach themselves from prevailing political alignments and realize that "all is possible." It is notable that Zolberg decries the blunt instruments offered by instrumentalist theories for the study of such defining political moments. "So much in the conventional paraphernalia of political science is founded on axiomatic instrumentalism," he writes, "that we do not know what to make of [such] events." Aristide R. Zolberg, "Moments of Madness," Politics and Society 2 (1972): 183-207. But note also the recent contributions of Susanne Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades," World Politics 47 (1994): 42-101, and Timur Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995).
29. Recall Zolberg's discussion of what he called "moments of madness" in which people detach themselves from prevailing political alignments and realize that "all is possible." It is notable that Zolberg decries the blunt instruments offered by instrumentalist theories for the study of such defining political moments. "So much in the conventional paraphernalia of political science is founded on axiomatic instrumentalism," he writes, "that we do not know what to make of [such] events." Aristide R. Zolberg, "Moments of Madness," Politics and Society 2 (1972): 183-207. But note also the recent contributions of Susanne Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades," World Politics 47 (1994): 42-101, and Timur Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995).
30. Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991); Robert H. Bates and Anne O. Krueger, "Generalizations Arising from the Country Cases," in Robert H. Bates and Anne O. Krueger, eds., Political and Economic Interactions in Economic Policy Reform (Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 1993).
31. Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991); Robert H. Bates and Anne O. Krueger, "Generalizations Arising from the Country Cases," in Robert H. Bates and Anne O. Krueger, eds., Political and Economic Interactions in Economic Policy Reform (Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 1993).
32. See, for example, Aletta Biersack, "Local Knowledge and Local History: Geertz and Beyond," in Lynn Hunt, ed., The New Cultural History (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989); Richard Johnson, "What Is Cultural Studies Anyway?" Social Texts-016 (1986-1987): 38-80.
33. See, for example, Aletta Biersack, "Local Knowledge and Local History: Geertz and Beyond," in Lynn Hunt, ed., The New Cultural History (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989); Richard Johnson, "What Is Cultural Studies Anyway?" Social Texts-016 (1986-1987): 38-80.
34. See, for example, Virginia Domínguez, White by Definition: Social Classification in Creole Louisiana (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1988).
35. See, for example, Parthan Chatterjee, Nationalist Thought and the Colonial World (London: Zed Books, 1986); Patrick Williams and Laura Chrisman, Colonial Discourse and Post-Colonial Theory (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994).
36. See, for example, Parthan Chatterjee, Nationalist Thought and the Colonial World (London: Zed Books, 1986); Patrick Williams and Laura Chrisman, Colonial Discourse and Post-Colonial Theory (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994).
37. See, for example, Michael Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging (New York: Farrar, Straus, & Giroux, 1993).
38. See, for example, Benedict Anderson, Imagined Communities (New York: Verso, 1991).
39. See, for example, Scott Michaelseon and David Johnson, eds., Border Theory: The Limits of Cultural Politics (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1997).
40. See, for example, E. J. Hobsbawm and Terrence Ranger, eds., The Invention of Tradition (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983).
41. Murray Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988).
42. See, for example, Clifford Geertz, Negara: The Theater State in Bali (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1980); Nicholas Dirks, Geoff Eley, and Sherry B. Ortner, Culture/Power/History (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993).
43. See, for example, Clifford Geertz, Negara: The Theater State in Bali (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1980); Nicholas Dirks, Geoff Eley, and Sherry B. Ortner, Culture/Power/History (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993).
44. Homik Bhabha, The Location of Culture (London: Routledge Kegan Paul, 1994).
45. Erving Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life (New York: Doubleday, 1965); Erving Goffman, Strategic Interaction (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1969); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Joseph Gusfield, The Culture of Public Policies (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1980).
46. Erving Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life (New York: Doubleday, 1965); Erving Goffman, Strategic Interaction (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1969); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Joseph Gusfield, The Culture of Public Policies (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1980).
47. Erving Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life (New York: Doubleday, 1965); Erving Goffman, Strategic Interaction (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1969); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Joseph Gusfield, The Culture of Public Policies (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1980).
48. Erving Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life (New York: Doubleday, 1965); Erving Goffman, Strategic Interaction (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1969); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Joseph Gusfield, The Culture of Public Policies (Chicago: University of Chicago, 1980).
49. See John A. Ferejohn, "Rationality and Interpretation: Parliamentary Elections in Early Stuart England," in Kristen Renwick Monroe, ed., The Economic Approach to Politics (New York: HarperCollins, 1991); David D. Laitin, Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change among the Yoruba (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986); and David D. Laitin, Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998).
50. See John A. Ferejohn, "Rationality and Interpretation: Parliamentary Elections in Early Stuart England," in Kristen Renwick Monroe, ed., The Economic Approach to Politics (New York: HarperCollins, 1991); David D. Laitin, Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change among the Yoruba (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986); and David D. Laitin, Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998).
51. See John A. Ferejohn, "Rationality and Interpretation: Parliamentary Elections in Early Stuart England," in Kristen Renwick Monroe, ed., The Economic Approach to Politics (New York: HarperCollins, 1991); David D. Laitin, Hegemony and Culture: Politics and Religious Change among the Yoruba (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1986); and David D. Laitin, Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1998).
52. Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991).
53. See Cherry T. Gertzel, Carolyn Baylies, and Morris Szeftel, The Dynamics of the One-Party State in Zambia (Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 1984); William Tordoff, ed., Politics in Zambia (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1974); William Tordoff, Administration in Zambia (Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 1990).
54. See Cherry T. Gertzel, Carolyn Baylies, and Morris Szeftel, The Dynamics of the One-Party State in Zambia (Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 1984); William Tordoff, ed., Politics in Zambia (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1974); William Tordoff, Administration in Zambia (Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 1990).
55. See Cherry T. Gertzel, Carolyn Baylies, and Morris Szeftel, The Dynamics of the One-Party State in Zambia (Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 1984); William Tordoff, ed., Politics in Zambia (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1974); William Tordoff, Administration in Zambia (Manchester, UK: Manchester University Press, 1990).
56. See Carolyn Baylies, "Zambia's Economic Reforms and Their Aftermath: The State and the Growth of Indigenous Capital," Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 20 (1982): 235-263.
57. See the data given in D. Hywel Davies, ed., Zambia in Maps (London: University of London Press, 1971).
58. See Doris Jansen Dodge, Agricultural Policy and Performance in Zambia (Berkeley, CA: Institute of International Studies, 1977).
59. For a discussion, see Gertzel, Baylies, and Szeftel, The Dynamics of the One-Party State in Zambia, and William Tordoff, "Residual Legislatures: The Cases of Tanzania and Zambia," Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 15 (1977): 234-249.
60. For a discussion, see Gertzel, Baylies, and Szeftel, The Dynamics of the One-Party State in Zambia, and William Tordoff, "Residual Legislatures: The Cases of Tanzania and Zambia," Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 15 (1977): 234-249.
61. Robert H. Bates and Paul Collier, "Zambia," in Robert H. Bates and Anne O. Krueger, eds., Political and Economic Interactions in Economic Policy Reform (Oxford, UK: Blackwell, 1993), 420-421.
62. The Times [London] 29 June 1990.
63. This tradition draws on, among others, George Rude and Eric Hobsbawm, Captain Swing (New York: Pantheon, 1968). For studies of urban political protest, see Janice Perlman, The Myth of Marginality (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1976); this tradition of political analysis draws on George Rude, The Crowd in History (New York: John Wiley, 1964). For studies of rural protest, see James C. Scott, Weapons of the Weak (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1985) and James C. Scott, Domination and the Arts of Resistance (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1990).
64. This tradition draws on, among others, George Rude and Eric Hobsbawm, Captain Swing (New York: Pantheon, 1968). For studies of urban political protest, see Janice Perlman, The Myth of Marginality (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1976); this tradition of political analysis draws on George Rude, The Crowd in History (New York: John Wiley, 1964). For studies of rural protest, see James C. Scott, Weapons of the Weak (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1985) and James C. Scott, Domination and the Arts of Resistance (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1990).
65. This tradition draws on, among others, George Rude and Eric Hobsbawm, Captain Swing (New York: Pantheon, 1968). For studies of urban political protest, see Janice Perlman, The Myth of Marginality (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1976); this tradition of political analysis draws on George Rude, The Crowd in History (New York: John Wiley, 1964). For studies of rural protest, see James C. Scott, Weapons of the Weak (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1985) and James C. Scott, Domination and the Arts of Resistance (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1990).
66. This tradition draws on, among others, George Rude and Eric Hobsbawm, Captain Swing (New York: Pantheon, 1968). For studies of urban political protest, see Janice Perlman, The Myth of Marginality (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1976); this tradition of political analysis draws on George Rude, The Crowd in History (New York: John Wiley, 1964). For studies of rural protest, see James C. Scott, Weapons of the Weak (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1985) and James C. Scott, Domination and the Arts of Resistance (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1990).
67. This tradition draws on, among others, George Rude and Eric Hobsbawm, Captain Swing (New York: Pantheon, 1968). For studies of urban political protest, see Janice Perlman, The Myth of Marginality (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1976); this tradition of political analysis draws on George Rude, The Crowd in History (New York: John Wiley, 1964). For studies of rural protest, see James C. Scott, Weapons of the Weak (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1985) and James C. Scott, Domination and the Arts of Resistance (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1990).
68. For studies emphasizing popular protest in defense of subsistence entitlements, see James C. Scott, The Moral Economy of the Peasant (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1976). In addition to the studies by Rude noted above, see also Charles Tilly, ed., The Formation of Nation States in Western Europe (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1975).
69. For studies emphasizing popular protest in defense of subsistence entitlements, see James C. Scott, The Moral Economy of the Peasant (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1976). In addition to the studies by Rude noted above, see also Charles Tilly, ed., The Formation of Nation States in Western Europe (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1975).
70. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
71. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
72. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
73. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
74. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
75. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
76. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
77. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
78. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
79. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
80. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
81. This account draws on Steven L. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1983); Steven L. Burg and Michael L. Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability in Multinational Yugoslavia," American Political Science Review 83 (1989): 535-554; Aleksa Djilas, The Contested Country: Yugoslav Unity and Communist Revolution, 1919-1953 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1991); V. P. Gagnon, "Serbia's Road to War," Journal of Democracy 5 (1994): 117-131; V. P. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security 19 (1994-1995): 130-166; Misha Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia (New York: Penguin, 1992); Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging; Branka Magas, The Destruction of Yugoslavia: Tracking Yugoslavia's Break-up 1980-92 (New York: Verso, 1993); Claus Offe, "Strong Causes, Weak Cures," East European Constitutional Review 1 (1992): 21-23; William Pfaff, "Invitation to War," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 97-109; Laura Silber and Allan Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation (New York: TV Books/Penguin USA, 1995); and Susan Woodward, Balkan Tragedy: Chaos and Dissolution after the Cold War (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1995).
82. Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey through History (New York: St. Martin's, 1993). Although Ignatieff and Pfaff argue against the primordial view, they both acknowledge its prevalence among observers and participants. Pfaff observes that "war in the Balkans is widely thought to be atavistic, the product of a perverse time warp that unloads fourteenth-century hatreds." Pfaff, "An Invitation to War." Ignatieff writes, "Nationalists everywhere turn the historical record into a narrative of self-justification." Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging.
83. Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey through History (New York: St. Martin's, 1993). Although Ignatieff and Pfaff argue against the primordial view, they both acknowledge its prevalence among observers and participants. Pfaff observes that "war in the Balkans is widely thought to be atavistic, the product of a perverse time warp that unloads fourteenth-century hatreds." Pfaff, "An Invitation to War." Ignatieff writes, "Nationalists everywhere turn the historical record into a narrative of self-justification." Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging.
84. Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey through History (New York: St. Martin's, 1993). Although Ignatieff and Pfaff argue against the primordial view, they both acknowledge its prevalence among observers and participants. Pfaff observes that "war in the Balkans is widely thought to be atavistic, the product of a perverse time warp that unloads fourteenth-century hatreds." Pfaff, "An Invitation to War." Ignatieff writes, "Nationalists everywhere turn the historical record into a narrative of self-justification." Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging.
85. Robert D. Kaplan, Balkan Ghosts: A Journey through History (New York: St. Martin's, 1993). Although Ignatieff and Pfaff argue against the primordial view, they both acknowledge its prevalence among observers and participants. Pfaff observes that "war in the Balkans is widely thought to be atavistic, the product of a perverse time warp that unloads fourteenth-century hatreds." Pfaff, "An Invitation to War." Ignatieff writes, "Nationalists everywhere turn the historical record into a narrative of self-justification." Ignatieff, Blood and Belonging.
86. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict."
87. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict; David Laitin, Language Repertories and State Construction in Africa (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988); Donald Rothchild and Victor Olorunsula, State versus Ethnic Claims (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1983).
88. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict; David Laitin, Language Repertories and State Construction in Africa (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988); Donald Rothchild and Victor Olorunsula, State versus Ethnic Claims (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1983).
89. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict; David Laitin, Language Repertories and State Construction in Africa (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988); Donald Rothchild and Victor Olorunsula, State versus Ethnic Claims (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1983).
90. Similarly, the comparative literature on nationalism emphasizes the systematic evolution of the locus of community over time in the modern era. See, for example, Anderson, Imagined Communities; Ernst Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1983); and E. J. Hobsbawm, Nations and Nationalism since 1780 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992). Put simply, this historical perspective demonstrates that identity is not primordial but is a social process, if one not well understood.
91. Similarly, the comparative literature on nationalism emphasizes the systematic evolution of the locus of community over time in the modern era. See, for example, Anderson, Imagined Communities; Ernst Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1983); and E. J. Hobsbawm, Nations and Nationalism since 1780 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992). Put simply, this historical perspective demonstrates that identity is not primordial but is a social process, if one not well understood.
92. Similarly, the comparative literature on nationalism emphasizes the systematic evolution of the locus of community over time in the modern era. See, for example, Anderson, Imagined Communities; Ernst Gellner, Nations and Nationalism (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1983); and E. J. Hobsbawm, Nations and Nationalism since 1780 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992). Put simply, this historical perspective demonstrates that identity is not primordial but is a social process, if one not well understood.
93. Gagnon, "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict."
94. Barry R. Weingast, "Institutionalizing Trust: The Politics and Economics of Ethnic and Regional Conflict," Working paper (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 1994).
95. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia; Djilas, The Contested Country;
96. Burg, Conflict and Cohesion in Socialist Yugoslavia; Djilas, The Contested Country;
97. Weingast, "Institutionalizing Trust."
98. Burg and Berbaum, "Community, Integration, and Stability," 535.
99. Fearon's discussion of credible commitments helps explain how this dismantling of the ancien régime threatened different groups, particularly minorities. See James D. Fearon, "Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict," in David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, eds., The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1998).
100. He also emphasized problems in Kosovo, claiming discrimination against Serbians by the majority Albanians; see, for example, Aleksa Djilas, "A Profile of Slobodan Milosevic," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 81-96. Though this was an important antecedent to Serbia's confrontation with Croatia, we do not treat it here. We also do not treat the important events surrounding Slovenia's move to independence; see, however, Silber and Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation; Woodward, Balkan Tragedy.
101. He also emphasized problems in Kosovo, claiming discrimination against Serbians by the majority Albanians; see, for example, Aleksa Djilas, "A Profile of Slobodan Milosevic," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 81-96. Though this was an important antecedent to Serbia's confrontation with Croatia, we do not treat it here. We also do not treat the important events surrounding Slovenia's move to independence; see, however, Silber and Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation; Woodward, Balkan Tragedy.
102. He also emphasized problems in Kosovo, claiming discrimination against Serbians by the majority Albanians; see, for example, Aleksa Djilas, "A Profile of Slobodan Milosevic," Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 81-96. Though this was an important antecedent to Serbia's confrontation with Croatia, we do not treat it here. We also do not treat the important events surrounding Slovenia's move to independence; see, however, Silber and Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation; Woodward, Balkan Tragedy.
103. Silber and Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation; Woodward, Balkan Tragedy.
104. Silber and Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation; Woodward, Balkan Tragedy.
105. Substantive accounts, such as Woodward, Balkan Tragedy, provide the empirical details; theoretical accounts, such as James D. Fearon, "Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict," and Rui J. P. de Figueiredo, Jr. and Barry R. Weingast, "The Rationality of Fear: Ethnic Conflict and Political Opportunism," Working paper (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, 1997), emphasize the mechanisms that in part generate these fears.
106. Substantive accounts, such as Woodward, Balkan Tragedy, provide the empirical details; theoretical accounts, such as James D. Fearon, "Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict," and Rui J. P. de Figueiredo, Jr. and Barry R. Weingast, "The Rationality of Fear: Ethnic Conflict and Political Opportunism," Working paper (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, 1997), emphasize the mechanisms that in part generate these fears.
107. Substantive accounts, such as Woodward, Balkan Tragedy, provide the empirical details; theoretical accounts, such as James D. Fearon, "Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict," and Rui J. P. de Figueiredo, Jr. and Barry R. Weingast, "The Rationality of Fear: Ethnic Conflict and Political Opportunism," Working paper (Stanford, CA: Stanford University, 1997), emphasize the mechanisms that in part generate these fears.
108. Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia; Woodward, Balkan Tragedy.
109. Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia; Woodward, Balkan Tragedy.
110. Silber and Little, Yugoslavia: Death of a Nation, 86-87.
111. Indeed, as many observers note, the similarities between these regimes and between their people stand out more than their differences (Woodward, Balkan Tragedy). These areas do not contain starkly different people but people virtually identical in many respects. The differences between the Serbian and Croatian language, for example, are reported to be a few hundred words. See, for example, Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia, and Pfaff, "An Invitation to War."
112. Indeed, as many observers note, the similarities between these regimes and between their people stand out more than their differences (Woodward, Balkan Tragedy). These areas do not contain starkly different people but people virtually identical in many respects. The differences between the Serbian and Croatian language, for example, are reported to be a few hundred words. See, for example, Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia, and Pfaff, "An Invitation to War."
113. Indeed, as many observers note, the similarities between these regimes and between their people stand out more than their differences (Woodward, Balkan Tragedy). These areas do not contain starkly different people but people virtually identical in many respects. The differences between the Serbian and Croatian language, for example, are reported to be a few hundred words. See, for example, Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia, and Pfaff, "An Invitation to War."
114. Glenny, The Fall of Yugoslavia.
115. Note that here the urbanites are so disaffected by the United National Independence Party (UNIP) regime that they are willing to accept a potentially austere dissident regime even over an UNIP government that could be willing to subsidize maize.
116. Should Kaunda do nothing (f) or repress (R), then the moderate urbanites support the dissidents.
117. These assumptions about preferences over classes of the various (81) terminal nodes of the game are sufficient to yield the equilibrium we outline below. Proofs of the results are available from the authors upon request.
118. Note that this result represents only the partial exposition of one equilibrium.
119. But only when the probability of urban dwellers being only moderately happy is high relative to the probability of them being satisfied.
120. We can further specify Kaunda's estimates of, respectively, U being of type S and U being of type M, that a rational Kaunda could infer using Bayes's rule. The probability of U being S given that they have rioted is given by Pr(U = S\U riots) (formula presented) By a similar method, we can see that (formula presented)
121. 2 must be higher than under (1) in order for Kaunda to subsidize following riots.
122. Weingast explores the use of game theory for the construction of counterfactuals, in particular, for distinguishing one counterfactual from among all the possible events that did not happen. See Barry R. Weingast, "Off-the-Path Behavior: A Game-Theoretic Approach to Counterfactuals and Its Implications for Political and Historical Analysis," in Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds., Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996).
123. Richard Hall, The High Price of Principles (New York: Africana, 1970); interviews, Carter Center, Atlanta, Georgia (1992).
124. The following does not attempt to model the breakup of Yugoslavia but rather the behavior of pivotal groups in Serbia. Much that would be endogenous, given the first objective, can remain exogenous, given the second. In particular, for our purposes, we need not "endogenize" the behavior of groups in Croatia; rather, we can focus on the impact of their behavior in Serbia while ignoring the obvious strategic interdependence. In a separate endeavor, we seek to address these issues, incorporating the approach pioneered by Timothy Groseclose, "Blame-Game Politics," Working paper (Columbus: Ohio State University, 1995).
125. The unidimensional construction reflects the idea that preferences over them were highly correlated and that politics of what followed did not attempt to exploit these differences.
126. William M. Riker, The Art of Political Manipulation (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1986).
127. This model is a simplified version of a model we develop in de Figueiredo and Weingast, "The Rationality of Fear."
128. As in the Zambia game, this assumption does not literally imply that the Croats' type was random or that it was chosen by "nature" as the first step of this game just prior to Milosevic's move. Rather, this is a fictional device for representing the pivot's uncertainty about the Croats.
129. In practice, there is some doubt as to whether Milosevic actually knew the Croatians' type and hence their intentions. Nonetheless, Milosevic and the Yugoslav state were better informed on this issue than the typical Serb, even if not fully informed. A modest adjustment in the model to account for this is omitted for ease of exposition.
130. The technical conditions are a bit more complicated than this, but they need not detain us.
131. Notice that P has a clear preference order over the four possible outcomes, from highest to lowest: PR, PM, AM, AR.
132. The exact expression for y* is (formula presented)
133. Ferejohn, "Rationality and Interpretation," 281.
134. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
135. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
136. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
137. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
138. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
139. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
140. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
141. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
142. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
143. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
144. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
145. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
146. Emil Durkheim, Suicide (New York: Free Press, 1951); Emil Durkheim, The Division of Labor in Society (New York: Free Press, 1956); Goffman, The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life; Sidney Tarrow, Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975 (Oxford, UK: Clarendon, 1989); Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action and Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994); Charles Tilly, ed., Citizenship, Identity and Social History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly, "Toward an Integrated Perspective on Social Movements," in Mark I. Lichbach and Alan S. Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Timur Kuran, "Now out of Never: The Role of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989," World Politics 44 (1991): 7-48; Kuran, Private Truths, Public Lies; Barry Barnes, Elements of Social Theory (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); Edelman, Constructing the Political Spectacle; Russell Hardin, One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
147. An exception is the work of Douglass North (see, for example, North, Structure and Change in Economic History, chap. 5).
148. Kenneth A. Sheplse, "Comment," in Roger Noll, ed., Regulatory Policy and the Social Sciences (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1984).
149. See, for example, Judith Goldstein and Robert O. Keohane, Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Foreign Policy (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1993).
150. See also Mark Granovetter, "Threshold Models of Collective Behavior," American Journal of Sociology 83 (1978): 217-224; Kuran, "Now out of Never"; Doug McAdam, "Micromobilization Context and Recruitment to Activism," in Bert Klandermas, Hanspeter Kriesi, and Sidney Tarrow, eds., International Social Movement Research, vol. 1 (Greenwich, CT: JAI, 1988); and Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
151. See also Mark Granovetter, "Threshold Models of Collective Behavior," American Journal of Sociology 83 (1978): 217-224; Kuran, "Now out of Never"; Doug McAdam, "Micromobilization Context and Recruitment to Activism," in Bert Klandermas, Hanspeter Kriesi, and Sidney Tarrow, eds., International Social Movement Research, vol. 1 (Greenwich, CT: JAI, 1988); and Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
152. See also Mark Granovetter, "Threshold Models of Collective Behavior," American Journal of Sociology 83 (1978): 217-224; Kuran, "Now out of Never"; Doug McAdam, "Micromobilization Context and Recruitment to Activism," in Bert Klandermas, Hanspeter Kriesi, and Sidney Tarrow, eds., International Social Movement Research, vol. 1 (Greenwich, CT: JAI, 1988); and Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
153. See also Mark Granovetter, "Threshold Models of Collective Behavior," American Journal of Sociology 83 (1978): 217-224; Kuran, "Now out of Never"; Doug McAdam, "Micromobilization Context and Recruitment to Activism," in Bert Klandermas, Hanspeter Kriesi, and Sidney Tarrow, eds., International Social Movement Research, vol. 1 (Greenwich, CT: JAI, 1988); and Lohmann, "The Dynamics of Informational Cascades."
154. Zolberg, "Moments of Madness."
155. Thomas Sargent, Bounded Rationality (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993) provides an important investigation of this issue. This section has benefited greatly from discussions with, and formulations put forward by, Kenneth Shepsle (personal communications).
156. Thomas Sargent, Bounded Rationality (New York: Oxford University Press, 1993) provides an important investigation of this issue. This section has benefited greatly from discussions with, and formulations put forward by, Kenneth Shepsle (personal communications).
157. Gabriel Almond, "Separate Tables: Schools and Sects in Political Science," PS: Political Science and Politics 21 (1988): 828-842; Gabriel Almond, A Discipline Divided (Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990).
158. Gabriel Almond, "Separate Tables: Schools and Sects in Political Science," PS: Political Science and Politics 21 (1988): 828-842; Gabriel Almond, A Discipline Divided (Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990).