Assessing cost uncertainty: Lessons from environmental restoration projects

Journal of Construction Engineering and Management

Volumn 124, Issue 6, 1998, Pages 445-451

  Diekmann, James E ^a   Featherman, W David ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b Proj Performance Corp   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; COST ACCOUNTING; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; PROBABILITY; PROJECT MANAGEMENT; RESTORATION; RISK MANAGEMENT;

ASSESSING COST UNCERTAINTY; ENVIRONMENTAL RESTORATION;

CIVIL ENGINEERING;

EID: 0032208061     PISSN: 07339364     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1998)124:6(445)     Document Type: Article

References (12)

1. Diekmann, J., and Featherman, W. (1995). "New approaches to cost risk analysis." Proc., ASCE Conf. on Computing in Civ. Engrg., J. Mohsen, ed., ASCE, New York, 1392-1399.
2. Diekmann, J., Featherman, W., and Moody, R. (1994). Final report: Cost risk analysis models for DOE hazardous waste remediation projects, University of Colorado Construction Research Series, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colo.
3. Diekmann, J., Featherman, W., Moody, R., Molenaar, K., and Rodriquez-Guy, M. (1996). "Project cost risk analysis using influence diagrams." Proj. Mgmt. J., 27(4), 23-30.
4. Gebotys, R., and Claxton-Oldfield, S. (1989). "Errors in the quantification of uncertainty: A product of heuristics or minimal probability knowledge base?" Appl. Cognitive Psychol., 3, 237-250.
5. Hora, S. (1992). "Acquisition of expert judgment: Examples from risk assessment." J. Energy Engrg., 118(2), 136-148.
6. Hora, S., Hora, J., and Dodd, N. (1992). "Assessment of probability distributions for continuous random variables: A comparison of the bisection and fixed value methods, organizational behavior and human decision processes," Vol. 51, 133-155.
7. Independent Project Analysis, Inc. (IPA). (1993). The Department of Energy Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management project performance study, DOE, Reston, Va.
8. Keeney, R., and von Winterfeldt, D. (1991). "Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Trans. on Engrg. Mgmt., 38(3).
9. Merkhofer, M. (1987). "Quantifying judgmental uncertainty: Methodology, experiences, and insights. IEEE Trans, on Sys., Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-17(5).
10. Otway, H., and von Winterfeldt, D. (1992). "Expert judgment in risk analysis and management: Process, contexts, and pitfalls." Risk Anal., 12(1).
11. Spetzler, C., and Stael von Holstein, C. (1972). "Probability encoding in decision analysis," Proc., ORSA-TIMS-AIEE Conf., Atlantic City, N.J.
12. Tversky, A., and Kahneman, D. (1974). "Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases," Science, 185, 1124-1131.