A case study of the use of statistical models in forecast verification: Precipitation probability forecasts

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 13, Issue 3 PART2, 1998, Pages 795-810

  Murphy, Allan H ^a   Wilks, Daniel S ^b  

^a Prediction and Evaluation Systems   (United States)

^b Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); PROBABILITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

FORECASTING METHOD; MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0032172947     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0795:acsotu>2.0.co;2     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 78, 1-3.
2. Brooks, H. E., and C. A. Doswell III, 1996: A comparison of measures-oriented and distributions-oriented approaches to forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 288-303.
3. _, and A. P. Douglas, 1998: Value of weather forecasts for electric utility load forecasting. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 361-364.
4. Carter, G. M., and P. D. Polger, 1986: A 20-year summary of National Weather Service verification results for temperature and precipitation. NWS Tech. Memo. NWS FCST 31, NOAA/NWS, 50 pp. [Available from NTIS, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22161.]
5. _, J. P. Dallavalle, and H. R. Glahn, 1989: Statistical forecasts based on the National Meteorological Center's numerical weather prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 401-412.
6. Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler, 1987: Calibrating and combining precipitation probability forecasts. Probability and Bayesian Sta tistics, R. Viertl, Ed., Plenum, 97-110.
7. _, A. H. Murphy, and R. L. Winkler, 1995: Screening probability forecasts: Contrasts between choosing and combining. Int. J. Forecasting, 11, 133-146.
8. DeGroot, M. H., and E. A. Eriksson, 1985: Probability forecasting, stochastic dominance, and the Lorenz curve. Bayesian Statistics, J. Bernardo et al., Eds., North Holland, 99-118.
9. Ehrendorfer, M., and A. H. Murphy, 1988: Comparative evaluation of weather forecasting systems: Sufficiency, quality, and accuracy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1757-1770.
10. _, and _, 1992: Evaluation of prototypical climate forecasts: The sufficiency relation. J. Climate, 5, 876-887.
11. Glahn, H. R., and D. A. Lowry, 1972: The use of model output statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 1203-1211.
12. Katz, R. W., A. H. Murphy, and R. L. Winkler, 1982: Assessing the value of frost forecasts to orchardists: A dynamic decision-making approach. J. Appl. Meteor., 21, 518-531.
13. Krzysztofowicz, R., 1992: Bayesian correlation score: A utilitarian measure of forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 208-219.
14. _, and D. Long, 1991a: Forecast sufficiency characteristic: Construction and application. Int. J. Forecasting, 7, 39-45.
15. _, and _, 1991b: Beta likelihood models of probabilistic forecasts. Int. J. Forecasting, 7, 47-55.
16. Liljas, E., and A. H. Murphy, 1994: Anders Angstrom and his early papers on probability forecasting and the use/value of forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 1227-1236.
17. Mason, I. B., 1982: A model for the assessment of weather forecasts. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 30, 291-303.
18. Murphy, A. H., 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
19. _, 1991: Forecast verification: Its complexity and dimensionality. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1590-1601.
20. _, 1997: Forecast verification. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts, R. W. Katz and A. H. Murphy, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 19-74.
21. _, and M. Ehrendorfer, 1987: On the relationship between the accuracy and value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 243-251.
22. _, and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1330-1338.
23. Wilks, D. S., 1991: Representing serial correlation of meteorological events and forecasts in dynamic decision-analytic models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1640-1662.
24. _, 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 464 pp.
25. _, and A. H. Murphy, 1986: A decision-analytic study of the joint value of seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts in a choice-of-crop problem. Atmos.-Ocean, 24, 353-368.
26. _, and K. W. Shen, 1991: Threshold relative humidity duration forecasts for plant disease prediction. J. Appl. Meteor., 30, 463-477.
27. _, R. E. Pitt, and G. W. Fick, 1993: Modeling optimal alfalfa harvest scheduling using short-range weather forecasts. Agric. Syst., 42, 277-305.