Air force pilot retention: Evaluating the results of alternative models

Armed Forces and Society

Volumn 25, Issue 1, 1998, Pages 121-135

  Stone, Brice ^a   Wiggins, Vince ^a   Turner Holland, Kathryn ^a   Looper, Larry T ^a  

^a Metrica Inc ^*

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0032148298     PISSN: 0095327X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0095327X9802500107     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. 1. Vincent L. Wiggins, Larry T. Looper, S. E. Engquist, "Neural Networks and their Application to Air Force Personnel Modeling" (AL-TR-1991-0031), (Human Resources Directorate, Manpower and Personnel Division, Armstrong Laboratory, Brooks AFB, TX, 1991); D. E. Rumelhart, G. E. Hinton, R.J. Williams, "Learning Internal Representations by Error Propagation," in Parallel Distributed Processing: Explorations in the Microstructures of Cognitions, vol. I, eds. D. E. Rumelhart and J. L. McClelland (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1986), 318-362; P. Werbos, "Beyond Regression: New Tools for Prediction and Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences" (Ph.D. diss., Harvard University, 1974).
2. 1. Vincent L. Wiggins, Larry T. Looper, S. E. Engquist, "Neural Networks and their Application to Air Force Personnel Modeling" (AL-TR-1991-0031), (Human Resources Directorate, Manpower and Personnel Division, Armstrong Laboratory, Brooks AFB, TX, 1991); D. E. Rumelhart, G. E. Hinton, R.J. Williams, "Learning Internal Representations by Error Propagation," in Parallel Distributed Processing: Explorations in the Microstructures of Cognitions, vol. I, eds. D. E. Rumelhart and J. L. McClelland (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1986), 318-362; P. Werbos, "Beyond Regression: New Tools for Prediction and Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences" (Ph.D. diss., Harvard University, 1974).
3. 1. Vincent L. Wiggins, Larry T. Looper, S. E. Engquist, "Neural Networks and their Application to Air Force Personnel Modeling" (AL-TR-1991-0031), (Human Resources Directorate, Manpower and Personnel Division, Armstrong Laboratory, Brooks AFB, TX, 1991); D. E. Rumelhart, G. E. Hinton, R.J. Williams, "Learning Internal Representations by Error Propagation," in Parallel Distributed Processing: Explorations in the Microstructures of Cognitions, vol. I, eds. D. E. Rumelhart and J. L. McClelland (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1986), 318-362; P. Werbos, "Beyond Regression: New Tools for Prediction and Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences" (Ph.D. diss., Harvard University, 1974).
4. 2. Paul F. Hogan and Christine M. Villa, "Factors Affecting Reenlistment in the Army Reserves: Evidence from the 1986 DoD Survey," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 355-96; Hyder Lakhani and Curtis Gilroy "Army Reenlistment and Extension Decisions by Occupation," in Army Manpower Economics, ed. Curtis L. Gilroy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1986), 225-56; Hyder Lakhani, Curtis Gilroy, and Cavan Capps, "Logistic Microdata Model of First-Term Army Reenlistment" (Manpower and Personnel Policy Research Group, U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Sciences, July 1984); John T. Warner and Matthew S. Goldberg, "The Influence of Non-Pecuniary Factors on Labor Supply: The Case of Navy Enlisted Personnel," Review of Economics and Statictics 66 (1984): 26-35; John T. Warner and Gary Solon, "First-Term Attrition and Reenlistment in the U.S. Army," in the Military Compensation and Personnnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 243-77.
5. 2. Paul F. Hogan and Christine M. Villa, "Factors Affecting Reenlistment in the Army Reserves: Evidence from the 1986 DoD Survey," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 355-96; Hyder Lakhani and Curtis Gilroy "Army Reenlistment and Extension Decisions by Occupation," in Army Manpower Economics, ed. Curtis L. Gilroy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1986), 225-56; Hyder Lakhani, Curtis Gilroy, and Cavan Capps, "Logistic Microdata Model of First-Term Army Reenlistment" (Manpower and Personnel Policy Research Group, U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Sciences, July 1984); John T. Warner and Matthew S. Goldberg, "The Influence of Non-Pecuniary Factors on Labor Supply: The Case of Navy Enlisted Personnel," Review of Economics and Statictics 66 (1984): 26-35; John T. Warner and Gary Solon, "First-Term Attrition and Reenlistment in the U.S. Army," in the Military Compensation and Personnnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 243-77.
6. 2. Paul F. Hogan and Christine M. Villa, "Factors Affecting Reenlistment in the Army Reserves: Evidence from the 1986 DoD Survey," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 355-96; Hyder Lakhani and Curtis Gilroy "Army Reenlistment and Extension Decisions by Occupation," in Army Manpower Economics, ed. Curtis L. Gilroy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1986), 225-56; Hyder Lakhani, Curtis Gilroy, and Cavan Capps, "Logistic Microdata Model of First-Term Army Reenlistment" (Manpower and Personnel Policy Research Group, U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Sciences, July 1984); John T. Warner and Matthew S. Goldberg, "The Influence of Non-Pecuniary Factors on Labor Supply: The Case of Navy Enlisted Personnel," Review of Economics and Statictics 66 (1984): 26-35; John T. Warner and Gary Solon, "First-Term Attrition and Reenlistment in the U.S. Army," in the Military Compensation and Personnnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 243-77.
7. 2. Paul F. Hogan and Christine M. Villa, "Factors Affecting Reenlistment in the Army Reserves: Evidence from the 1986 DoD Survey," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 355-96; Hyder Lakhani and Curtis Gilroy "Army Reenlistment and Extension Decisions by Occupation," in Army Manpower Economics, ed. Curtis L. Gilroy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1986), 225-56; Hyder Lakhani, Curtis Gilroy, and Cavan Capps, "Logistic Microdata Model of First-Term Army Reenlistment" (Manpower and Personnel Policy Research Group, U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Sciences, July 1984); John T. Warner and Matthew S. Goldberg, "The Influence of Non-Pecuniary Factors on Labor Supply: The Case of Navy Enlisted Personnel," Review of Economics and Statictics 66 (1984): 26-35; John T. Warner and Gary Solon, "First-Term Attrition and Reenlistment in the U.S. Army," in the Military Compensation and Personnnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 243-77.
8. 2. Paul F. Hogan and Christine M. Villa, "Factors Affecting Reenlistment in the Army Reserves: Evidence from the 1986 DoD Survey," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 355-96; Hyder Lakhani and Curtis Gilroy "Army Reenlistment and Extension Decisions by Occupation," in Army Manpower Economics, ed. Curtis L. Gilroy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1986), 225-56; Hyder Lakhani, Curtis Gilroy, and Cavan Capps, "Logistic Microdata Model of First-Term Army Reenlistment" (Manpower and Personnel Policy Research Group, U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Sciences, July 1984); John T. Warner and Matthew S. Goldberg, "The Influence of Non-Pecuniary Factors on Labor Supply: The Case of Navy Enlisted Personnel," Review of Economics and Statictics 66 (1984): 26-35; John T. Warner and Gary Solon, "First-Term Attrition and Reenlistment in the U.S. Army," in the Military Compensation and Personnnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Bahavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 243-77.
9. 3. B. A. Guzowski, "A Methodology for Long-Term Forecasts of Air Force Pilot Retention Rates: A Management Perspective" (Master's thesis, School of Systems and Logistics, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, 1990).
10. 4. James R. Simpson, "A Methodology for Forecasting Voluntary Retention Rates for Air Force Pilots" (Master's thesis, School of Engineering, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Petterson AFB, OH, 1991).
11. 5. William P. Whalen, "An Analysis of Factors Affecting the Retention of Medical Officers in the United States Navy" (Master's thesis, School of Engineering, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 1986).
12. 6. Elenor Shigley, "An Analylis of Factors Affecting the Career Plans of Military Nurses" (Master's thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA, 1988).
13. 7. D. Cromer and M. R. Julicher, "An Examination of the Effects of Economic Conditions on Pilot Retention" (Master's thesis, School of Systems and Logistics, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, 1982).
14. 8. Lisa A. Belue, "Multi-layer Perceptions for Classification" (Master's thesis, School of Engineering, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH, 1992).
15. 9. B.M. Stone et al., "A Simultaneous Estimation Model of Air Force Accession and Retention" (Human Resources Directorate, Manpower and Personnel Research Division, Brooks AFB, TX, 1991).
16. 10. Croner and Julicher, "Effects of Economic Conditions;" T. R. Saving et al., "Retention of Air Force Enlisted Personnel: An Empirical Examination" (AFHRL-TP-855-6), (Manpower and Personnel Division, Air Force Human Resources Laboratory, Brooks AFB, TX, 1985).
17. 10. Croner and Julicher, "Effects of Economic Conditions;" T. R. Saving et al., "Retention of Air Force Enlisted Personnel: An Empirical Examination" (AFHRL-TP-855-6), (Manpower and Personnel Division, Air Force Human Resources Laboratory, Brooks AFB, TX, 1985).
18. 11. Ibid.
19. 12. Saving et al., "Retention."
20. 13. Federal Aviation Pilots Association (FAPA), "Pilot Career Day: Aviation Industry Overview" (FAPA, Atlanta, GA n.d.).
21. 14. Guzowski, "Methodology;"
22. B. T. Hirsch and D. A. MacPherson, "Labor Earnings, Rents, and Competition in the Airline Industry" (Department of Economics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 1994).
23. 15. H. Theil, Principles of Econometrics (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1971).
24. 16. Ibid.
25. 17. D. M. Green and J. A. Sweys, Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics, rev. ed. (Huntington, NY: Krieger, 1974).
26. 18. T. Daula and R. Moffitt, "Estimating A Dynamic Programming Model of Army Reenlistment Behavior," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 181-201; D. A. Smith, S. Sylwester, and C. Villa, "Army Reenlistment Models," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention, 43-173; R. Baldwin and T. Daula, "Modeling the Retention Behavior of First-Term Military Personnel: Methodological Issues and a Proposed Specification," in Research in Labor Economics, vol. 7, ed. R. Ehrenberg (Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1985); J. Hosek and C. Peterson, "Reenlistment Bonuses and Retention Behavior," Report R-3199-MIL (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp., 1985); Lakhani and Gilroy, "Army Reenlistment;" Arthur S. De Vany and Thomas R. Savings, "Life-Cycle Job Choice and the Demand and Supply of Entry-Level Jobs: Some Evidence from the Air Force," in The Review of Economics and Statistics LXIV (Boston: Harvard University, North-Holland Publishing Company, August, 1982).
27. 18. T. Daula and R. Moffitt, "Estimating A Dynamic Programming Model of Army Reenlistment Behavior," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 181-201; D. A. Smith, S. Sylwester, and C. Villa, "Army Reenlistment Models," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention, 43-173; R. Baldwin and T. Daula, "Modeling the Retention Behavior of First-Term Military Personnel: Methodological Issues and a Proposed Specification," in Research in Labor Economics, vol. 7, ed. R. Ehrenberg (Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1985); J. Hosek and C. Peterson, "Reenlistment Bonuses and Retention Behavior," Report R-3199-MIL (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp., 1985); Lakhani and Gilroy, "Army Reenlistment;" Arthur S. De Vany and Thomas R. Savings, "Life-Cycle Job Choice and the Demand and Supply of Entry-Level Jobs: Some Evidence from the Air Force," in The Review of Economics and Statistics LXIV (Boston: Harvard University, North-Holland Publishing Company, August, 1982).
28. 18. T. Daula and R. Moffitt, "Estimating A Dynamic Programming Model of Army Reenlistment Behavior," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 181-201; D. A. Smith, S. Sylwester, and C. Villa, "Army Reenlistment Models," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention, 43-173; R. Baldwin and T. Daula, "Modeling the Retention Behavior of First-Term Military Personnel: Methodological Issues and a Proposed Specification," in Research in Labor Economics, vol. 7, ed. R. Ehrenberg (Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1985); J. Hosek and C. Peterson, "Reenlistment Bonuses and Retention Behavior," Report R-3199-MIL (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp., 1985); Lakhani and Gilroy, "Army Reenlistment;" Arthur S. De Vany and Thomas R. Savings, "Life-Cycle Job Choice and the Demand and Supply of Entry-Level Jobs: Some Evidence from the Air Force," in The Review of Economics and Statistics LXIV (Boston: Harvard University, North-Holland Publishing Company, August, 1982).
29. 18. T. Daula and R. Moffitt, "Estimating A Dynamic Programming Model of Army Reenlistment Behavior," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 181-201; D. A. Smith, S. Sylwester, and C. Villa, "Army Reenlistment Models," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention, 43-173; R. Baldwin and T. Daula, "Modeling the Retention Behavior of First-Term Military Personnel: Methodological Issues and a Proposed Specification," in Research in Labor Economics, vol. 7, ed. R. Ehrenberg (Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1985); J. Hosek and C. Peterson, "Reenlistment Bonuses and Retention Behavior," Report R-3199-MIL (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp., 1985); Lakhani and Gilroy, "Army Reenlistment;" Arthur S. De Vany and Thomas R. Savings, "Life-Cycle Job Choice and the Demand and Supply of Entry-Level Jobs: Some Evidence from the Air Force," in The Review of Economics and Statistics LXIV (Boston: Harvard University, North-Holland Publishing Company, August, 1982).
30. 18. T. Daula and R. Moffitt, "Estimating A Dynamic Programming Model of Army Reenlistment Behavior," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 181-201; D. A. Smith, S. Sylwester, and C. Villa, "Army Reenlistment Models," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention, 43-173; R. Baldwin and T. Daula, "Modeling the Retention Behavior of First-Term Military Personnel: Methodological Issues and a Proposed Specification," in Research in Labor Economics, vol. 7, ed. R. Ehrenberg (Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1985); J. Hosek and C. Peterson, "Reenlistment Bonuses and Retention Behavior," Report R-3199-MIL (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp., 1985); Lakhani and Gilroy, "Army Reenlistment;" Arthur S. De Vany and Thomas R. Savings, "Life-Cycle Job Choice and the Demand and Supply of Entry-Level Jobs: Some Evidence from the Air Force," in The Review of Economics and Statistics LXIV (Boston: Harvard University, North-Holland Publishing Company, August, 1982).
31. 18. T. Daula and R. Moffitt, "Estimating A Dynamic Programming Model of Army Reenlistment Behavior," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention: Models and Evidence, eds. Curtis L. Gilroy, David K. Horne, and D. Alton Smith (Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, 1991), 181-201; D. A. Smith, S. Sylwester, and C. Villa, "Army Reenlistment Models," in Military Compensation and Personnel Retention, 43-173; R. Baldwin and T. Daula, "Modeling the Retention Behavior of First-Term Military Personnel: Methodological Issues and a Proposed Specification," in Research in Labor Economics, vol. 7, ed. R. Ehrenberg (Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1985); J. Hosek and C. Peterson, "Reenlistment Bonuses and Retention Behavior," Report R-3199-MIL (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp., 1985); Lakhani and Gilroy, "Army Reenlistment;" Arthur S. De Vany and Thomas R. Savings, "Life-Cycle Job Choice and the Demand and Supply of Entry-Level Jobs: Some Evidence from the Air Force," in The Review of Economics and Statistics LXIV (Boston: Harvard University, North-Holland Publishing Company, August, 1982).