Anatomy of a labour landslide: The constituency system and the 1997 general election

Parliamentary Affairs

Volumn 51, Issue 2, 1998, Pages 131-148

  Johnston, Ron ^a   Pattie, Charles ^a   Rossiter, David ^a   Dorling, Danny ^a   Tunstall, Helena ^a   MacAllister, Iain ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0032041989     PISSN: 00312290     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.pa.a028780     Document Type: Article

References (17)

1. P. Norris, 'Anatomy of a Labour Landslide', Parliamentary Affairs, vol. 50, October 1997.
2. The method used here was devised and published by a New Zealand political scientist in the late 1950s, and has since been used by us on a number of occasions. See R.H. Brookes, 'Electoral Distortion in New Zealand', Australian Journal of Politics and History, vol. 5, 1959, and 'The Analysis of Distorted Representation in Two Party, Single Member Elections', Political Science, vol. 12, 1960; R.J. Johnston, 'Spatial Structure, Plurality Systems and Electoral Bias', The Canadian Geographer, vol. 20, 1976; R.J. Johnsron, C.J. Partie and E. Fieldhouse, 'The Geography of Voting and Representation' in A. Heath, R. Jowell and J. Curtice (eds), Labour's Last Chance? The 1992 Election and Beyond. (Dartmouth, 1994); D.J. Rossiter, R.J. Johnston and C.J. Partie, 'Redistricting and Electoral Bias in Great Britain', British Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, 1997.
3. The method used here was devised and published by a New Zealand political scientist in the late 1950s, and has since been used by us on a number of occasions. See R.H. Brookes, 'Electoral Distortion in New Zealand', Australian Journal of Politics and History, vol. 5, 1959, and 'The Analysis of Distorted Representation in Two Party, Single Member Elections', Political Science, vol. 12, 1960; R.J. Johnston, 'Spatial Structure, Plurality Systems and Electoral Bias', The Canadian Geographer, vol. 20, 1976; R.J. Johnsron, C.J. Partie and E. Fieldhouse, 'The Geography of Voting and Representation' in A. Heath, R. Jowell and J. Curtice (eds), Labour's Last Chance? The 1992 Election and Beyond. (Dartmouth, 1994); D.J. Rossiter, R.J. Johnston and C.J. Partie, 'Redistricting and Electoral Bias in Great Britain', British Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, 1997.
4. The method used here was devised and published by a New Zealand political scientist in the late 1950s, and has since been used by us on a number of occasions. See R.H. Brookes, 'Electoral Distortion in New Zealand', Australian Journal of Politics and History, vol. 5, 1959, and 'The Analysis of Distorted Representation in Two Party, Single Member Elections', Political Science, vol. 12, 1960; R.J. Johnston, 'Spatial Structure, Plurality Systems and Electoral Bias', The Canadian Geographer, vol. 20, 1976; R.J. Johnsron, C.J. Partie and E. Fieldhouse, 'The Geography of Voting and Representation' in A. Heath, R. Jowell and J. Curtice (eds), Labour's Last Chance? The 1992 Election and Beyond. (Dartmouth, 1994); D.J. Rossiter, R.J. Johnston and C.J. Partie, 'Redistricting and Electoral Bias in Great Britain', British Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, 1997.
5. The method used here was devised and published by a New Zealand political scientist in the late 1950s, and has since been used by us on a number of occasions. See R.H. Brookes, 'Electoral Distortion in New Zealand', Australian Journal of Politics and History, vol. 5, 1959, and 'The Analysis of Distorted Representation in Two Party, Single Member Elections', Political Science, vol. 12, 1960; R.J. Johnston, 'Spatial Structure, Plurality Systems and Electoral Bias', The Canadian Geographer, vol. 20, 1976; R.J. Johnsron, C.J. Partie and E. Fieldhouse, 'The Geography of Voting and Representation' in A. Heath, R. Jowell and J. Curtice (eds), Labour's Last Chance? The 1992 Election and Beyond. (Dartmouth, 1994); D.J. Rossiter, R.J. Johnston and C.J. Partie, 'Redistricting and Electoral Bias in Great Britain', British Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, 1997.
6. The method used here was devised and published by a New Zealand political scientist in the late 1950s, and has since been used by us on a number of occasions. See R.H. Brookes, 'Electoral Distortion in New Zealand', Australian Journal of Politics and History, vol. 5, 1959, and 'The Analysis of Distorted Representation in Two Party, Single Member Elections', Political Science, vol. 12, 1960; R.J. Johnston, 'Spatial Structure, Plurality Systems and Electoral Bias', The Canadian Geographer, vol. 20, 1976; R.J. Johnsron, C.J. Partie and E. Fieldhouse, 'The Geography of Voting and Representation' in A. Heath, R. Jowell and J. Curtice (eds), Labour's Last Chance? The 1992 Election and Beyond. (Dartmouth, 1994); D.J. Rossiter, R.J. Johnston and C.J. Partie, 'Redistricting and Electoral Bias in Great Britain', British Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, 1997.
7. On the Boundary Commissions, see C. Rallings and M. Thrasher, 'The Parliamentary Boundary Commissions: Rules, Interpretations and Polities', Parliamentary Affairs vol. 47, July 1994, and D.J. Rossiter, R.J. Johnston and C.J. Partie, The Boundary Commissions: Redrawing the UK's Map of Parliamentary Constituencies (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1998).
8. On the Boundary Commissions, see C. Rallings and M. Thrasher, 'The Parliamentary Boundary Commissions: Rules, Interpretations and Polities', Parliamentary Affairs vol. 47, July 1994, and D.J. Rossiter, R.J. Johnston and C.J. Partie, The Boundary Commissions: Redrawing the UK's Map of Parliamentary Constituencies (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1998).
9. The figures given in the previous paragraphs for the bias sub-components do not sum to 87 because of the residual interaction terms which we have not discussed here.
10. In our research on Sheffield at the time of the Commissions' Third Periodic Reviews we identified over 15,000 different ways in which the City's 27 wards could be combined into 6 constituencies, within the constraints set by the Rules: R.J. Johnston and D.J. Rossiter, 'Constituency Building, Political Representation and Electoral Bias in Urban England' in D. T. Herbert and R.J. Johnston (eds), Geography and the Urban Environment, Volume 3 (John Wiley, 1983).
11. Full details of our estimating procedure are in D.J. Rossiter, R.J. Johnston and C.J. Partie, 'Estimating the Partisan Impact of Redistricting in Great Britain', British Journal of Political Science, vol. 27, 1997.
12. See D.T. Denver and G. Hands, Modern Constituency Campaigning (Frank Cass, 1997).
13. See R.J. Johnston, Money and Votes: Constituency Campaign Spending and Election Results (Croom Helm, 1987); C.J. Partie, E. Fieldhouse and R.J. Johnston, 'Winning the Local Vote: The Effectiveness of Constituency Campaign Spending in Great Britain, 1983-1992', American Political Science Review, vol. 89, 1995.
14. See R.J. Johnston, Money and Votes: Constituency Campaign Spending and Election Results (Croom Helm, 1987); C.J. Partie, E. Fieldhouse and R.J. Johnston, 'Winning the Local Vote: The Effectiveness of Constituency Campaign Spending in Great Britain, 1983-1992', American Political Science Review, vol. 89, 1995.
15. R.J. Johnston et al., 'Spatial Variations in Voter Choice: Modelling Tactical Voting at the 1997 General Elecnonin Great Britain', Geographical and Environmental Modelling, vol. 1, 1997.
16. For details on the technical aspects of the procedure, see R.J. Johnston C.J. Pattie and J.G. Allsopp, A Nation Dividing? The Electoral Map of Britain 1979-1987 (Longman, 1988)
17. Labour also successfully influenced the Boundary Commission procedures in another way. The number of seats allocated to each local government area is a function of its electorate relative to the national quota. Successful registration campaigns in areas where it was likely to benefit from the allocation of another constituencies probably gained Labour four seats in 1997 that would not have been there to be won if the normal process of registration had proceeded.