Illusions of Control, Underestimations, and Accuracy: A Control Heuristic Explanation

Psychological Bulletin

Volumn 123, Issue 2, 1998, Pages 143-161

  Thompson, Suzanne C ^a   Armstrong, Wade ^b   Thomas, Craig ^b  

^a POMONA COLLEGE   (United States)

^b NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CONTROL; DECISION MAKING; HUMAN; ILLUSION; PHYSIOLOGY; PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECT; REVIEW;

HUMANS; ILLUSIONS; INTERNAL-EXTERNAL CONTROL; JUDGMENT;

EID: 0032014667     PISSN: 00332909     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/0033-2909.123.2.143     Document Type: Article

References (93)

1. Abramson, L. Y., & Alloy, L. S. (1980). Judgment of contingency: Errors and their implications. In A. Baum & J. Singer (Eds.), Advances in environmental psychology (Vol. 2, pp. 111-130). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
2. Ackermann, R., & DeRubeis, R. J. (1991). Is depressive realism real? Clinical Psychology Review, 11, 565-584.
3. Alloy, L. B., & Abramson, L. Y. (1979). Judgment of contingency in depressed and nondepressed students: Sadder but wiser? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 108, 441-485.
4. Alloy, L. B., Abramson, L. Y., & Viscusi, D. (1981). Induced mood and the illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 41, 1129-1140.
5. Alloy, L. B., & Tabachnik, N. (1984). Assessment of covariation by humans and animals: The joint influence of prior expectations and current situational information. Psychological Review, 91, 112-149.
6. Anderson, C. A., & Godfrey, S. S. (1987). Thoughts about actions: The effects of specificity and availability of imagined behavioral scripts on expectations about oneself and others. Social Cognition, 5, 238-258.
7. Anderson, C. A., Krull, D. S., & Weiner, B. (1996). Explanations: Processes and consequences. In E. T. Higgins & A. W. Kruglanski (Eds.), Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles (pp. 271-296). New York: Guilford Press.
8. Arkes, H. R., & Harkness, A. R. (1983). Estimates of contingency between two dichotomous variables. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 112, 117-135.
9. Ayeroff, F., & Abelson, R. P. (1976). ESP and ESB: Belief in personal success at mental telepathy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 34, 240-247.
10. Bar-Hillel, M., & Neter, E. (1996). Why are people reluctant to exchange lottery tickets? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 70, 17-27.
11. Benassi, V. A., & Mahler, H. I. M. (1985). Contingency judgments by depressed college students: Sadder but not always wiser. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 1323-1329.
12. Biner, P. M., Angle, S. T., Park, J. H., Mellinger, A. E., & Barber, B. C. (1995). Need and the illusion of control. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 899-907.
13. Bouts, P., & Van Avermaet, E. (1992). Drawing familiar or unfamiliar cards: Stimulus familiarity, chance orientation, and the illusion of control. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 18, 331-335.
14. Budescu, D. V., & Bruderman, M. (1995). The relationship between the illusion of control and the desirability bias. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 8, 109-125.
15. Bulman, R. J., & Wortman, C. B. (1977). Attributions of blame and coping in the "real world": Severe accident victims react to their lot. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 35, 351-363.
16. Burger, J. M. (1986). Desire for control and the illusion of control: The effects of familiarity and sequence of outcomes. Journal of Research in Personality, 20, 66-76.
17. Burger, J. M. (1989). Negative reactions to increases in perceived personal control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 56, 246-256.
18. Burger, J. M., & Cooper, H. M. (1979). The desirability of control. Motivation and Emotion, 3, 381-393.
19. Campbell, J. D., & Tesser, A. (1983). Motivational interpretations of hindsight bias: An individual difference analysis. Journal of Personality, 51, 605-620.
20. Chaiken, S. (1980). Heuristic versus systematic information processing and the use of source versus message cues in persuasion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 752-766.
21. Chapman, L. J. (1967). Illusory correlation in observational report. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 6, 151-155.
22. Christensen-Szalanski, J. J., & Willham, C. F. (1991). The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 48, 147-168.
23. Connolly, T., & Bukszar, E. W. (1990). Hindsight bias: Self-flattery or cognitive error? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 3, 205-211.
24. Crocker, J. (1981). Judgment of covariation by social perceivers. Psychological Bulletin, 90, 272-292.
25. Davis, C. G., & Lehman, D. R. (1995). Counterfactual thinking and coping with traumatic life events. In N. J. Roese & J. M. Olson (Eds.), What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 353-373). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
26. Dunn, D. S., & Wilson, T. D. (1990). When the stakes are high: A limit to the illusion-of-control effect. Social Cognition, 8, 305-323.
27. Dykstra, S. P., & Dollinger, S. J. (1990). Model competence and the illusion of control. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 28, 235-238.
28. Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1, 288-299.
29. Friedland, N., Keinan, G., & Regev, Y. (1992). Controlling the uncontrollable: Effects of stress on perceptions of controllability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63, 923-931.
30. Girotto, V., Legrenzi, P., & Rizzo, A. (1991). Event controllability in counterfactual thinking. Acta Psychologica, 78, 111-133.
31. Gollwitzer, P. M., & Kinney, R. F. (1989). Effects of deliberative and implementive mind-sets on illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, 531-542.
32. Hamilton, D. L., & Gifford, R. K. (1976). Illusory correlation in interpersonal perception: A cognitive basis of stereotyping. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 12, 392-407.
33. Hamilton, D. L., & Rose, T. L. (1980). Illusory correlation and the maintenance of stereotypic beliefs. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 832-845.
34. Hawkins, S. A., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 311-327.
35. Heckhausen, H., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (1987). Thought contents and cognitive functioning in motivational vs. volitional states of mind. Motivation and Emotion, 11, 101-120.
36. Heider, F. (1958). The psychology of interpersonal relations. New York: Wiley.
37. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). The simulation heuristic. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 201-208). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
38. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). Postscript. Psychological Review, 103, 591.
39. Koenig, L. J., Clements, C. M., & Alloy, L. B. (1992). Depression and the illusion of control: The role of esteem maintenance and impression management. Canadian Journal of Behavioral Science, 24, 233-252.
40. Kruglanski, A. W. (1996). Motivated social cognition: Principles of the interface. In E. T. Higgins & A. W. Kruglanski (Eds.), Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles (pp. 493-520). New York: Guilford Press.
41. Kunda, Z. (1990). The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 108, 480-498.
42. Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 311-328.
43. Langer, E. J., & Roth, J. (1975). Heads I win, tails it's chance: The illusion of control as a function of the sequence of outcomes in a purely chance task. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 951-955.
44. Lowery, B. J., Jacobsen, B. S., & DuCette, J. (1993). Causal attribution, control, and adjustment to breast cancer. Journal of Psychosocial Oncology, 10, 37-53.
45. Mark, M. M., & Mellor, S. (1991). Effect of self-relevance of an event on hindsight bias: The foreseeability of a layoff. Journal of Applied Psychology, 76, 569-577.
46. Markman, K. D., Gavanski, I., Sherman, S. J., & McMullen, M. N. (1995). The impact of perceived control on the imagination of better and worse possible worlds. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 588-595.
47. Markman, K. D., & Weary, G. (1996). The influence of chronic control concerns on counterfactual thought. Social Cognition, 14, 292-316.
48. Matute, H. (1994). Learned helplessness and superstitious behaviors as opposite effects of uncontrollable behavior reinforcement in humans. Learning and Motivation, 25, 216-232.
49. Matute, H. (1995). Human reaction to uncontrollable outcomes: Further evidence for superstitions rather than helplessness. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 48B, 142-157.
50. Miller, D. T., & Taylor, B. R. (1995). Counterfactual thought, regret, and superstition: How to avoid kicking yourself. In N. J. Roese & J. M. Olson (Eds.), What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 305-331). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
51. Mitchell, J. (1997, May 28). Paddling toward life. The Oregonian, pp. D1, D3.
52. Nisbett, R. E., & Ross, L. (1980). Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
53. Nisbett, R. E., & Wilson, T. D. (1977). Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. Psychological Review, 84, 231-256.
54. Parker, S. D., Brewer, M. B., & Spencer, J. R. (1980). Natural disaster, perceived control, and attributions to fate. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 6, 454-459.
55. Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and persuasion: Central and peripheral routes to attitude change. New York: Springer-Verlag.
56. Pohl, R. F., & Hell, W. (1996). No reduction in hindsight bias after complete information and repeated testing. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 49-58.
57. Reed, G. M., Taylor, S. E., & Kemeny, M. E. (1993). Perceived control and psychological adjustment in gay men with AIDS. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 23, 791-824.
58. Rodin, J., Rennert, K., & Solomon, S. K. (1980). Intrinsic motivation for control: Fact or fiction. In A. Baum & J. E. Singer (Eds.), Advances in environmental psychology: Applications of personal control (pp. 131-148). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
59. Roese, N. J. (1997). Counterfactual thinking. Psychological Bulletin, 121, 133-148.
60. Ross, L. (1977). The intuitive psychologist and his shortcomings: Distortions in the attribution process. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 10, pp. 174-221). New York: Academic Press.
61. Rybash, J. M., Roodin, P. A., & Hallion, K. (1979). The role of affect in children's attribution of intentionality and dispensation of punishment. Child Development, 50, 1227-1230.
62. Sanbonmatsu, D. M., Shavitt, S., & Gibson, B. D. (1994). Salience, set size, and illusory correlation: Making moderate assumptions about extreme targets. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 1020-1033.
63. Sanbonmatsu, D. M., Shavitt, S., Sherman, S. J., & Roskos-Ewoldsen, D. R. (1987). Illusory correlations in the perception of performance by self or a salient other. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 23, 518-543.
64. Sanbonmatsu, D. M., Sherman, S. J., & Hamilton, D. L. (1987). Illusory correlation in the perception of groups and individuals. Social Cognition, 5, 1-25.
65. Schultz, T. R., & Wells, D. (1985). Judging the intentionality of action-outcomes. Developmental Psychology, 21, 83-89.
66. Schulz, R., & Decker, S. (1985). Long-term adjustment to physical disability: The role of social support, perceived control, and self-blame. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 48, 1162-1172.
67. Shepperd, J. A., Ouellette, J. A., & Fernandez, J. K. (1996). Abandoning unrealistic optimism: Performance estimates at temporal proximity of self-relevant feedback. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 70, 844-855.
68. Sherman, S. J., & McConnell, A. R. (1996). Dysfunctional implications of counterfactual thinking: When alternatives to reality fail us. In N. J. Roese & J. M. Olson (Eds.), What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 199-231). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
69. Smith, M. C. (1978). Cognizing the behavior stream: The recognition of intentional action. Child Development, 49, 736-743.
70. Strickland, L. H., Lewicke, R. J., & Katz, A. M. (1966). Temporal orientation and perceived control as determinants of risk-taking. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2, 143-151.
71. Tang, C. S., & Critelli, J. W. (1990). Depression and judgment of control: Impact of a contingency on accuracy. Journal of Personality, 58, 717-727.
72. Tarabulsy, G. M., Tessier, R., & Kappas, A. (1996). Contingency detection and the contingent organization of behavior in interactions: Implications for socioemotional development in infancy. Psychological Bulletin, 120, 25-41.
73. Taylor, S. E., & Brown, J. D. (1988). Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health. Psychological Bulletin, 103, 193-210.
74. Taylor, S. E., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (1995). Effects of mindset on positive illusions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 69, 213-226.
75. Taylor, S. E., Helgeson, V. S., Reed, G. M., & Skokan, L. A. (1991). Self-generated feelings of control and adjustment to physical illness. Journal of Social Issues, 47(4), 91-109.
76. Taylor, S. E., Kemeny, M., Aspinwall, L. G., Schneider, S. C., Rodriguez, R., & Herbert, M. (1992). Optimism, coping, psychological distress, and high-risk sexual behavior among men at risk for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63, 460-473.
77. Taylor, S. E., Lichtman, R. R., & Wood, J. V. (1984). Attributions, beliefs about control, and adjustment to breast cancer. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 489-502.
78. Tennen, H., Affleck, G., Urrows, S., Higgins, P., & Mendola, R. (1992). Perceiving control, construing benefits, and daily processes in rheumatoid arthritis [Special issue]. Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science, 24, 186-203.
79. Tennen, H., & Sharp, J. P. (1983). Control orientation and the illusion of control. Journal of Personality Assessment, 47, 369-374.
80. Thompson, S. C. (1981). Will it hurt less if I can control it? A complex answer to a simple question. Psychological Bulletin, 90, 89-101.
81. Thompson, S. C. (1993). Naturally occurring perceptions of control: A model of bounded flexibility. In G. Weary, F. Gleicher, & K. L. Marsh (Eds.), Control motivation and social cognition (pp. 74-93). New York: Springer-Verlag.
82. Thompson, S. C., Cheek, P. R., & Graham, M. A. (1988). The other side of perceived control: Disadvantages and negative effects. In S. Spacapan & S. Oskamp (Eds.), The social psychology of health (pp. 69-93). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
83. Thompson, S. C., Collins, M. A., Newcomb, M. D., & Hunt, W. (1996). On fighting versus accepting stressful circumstances: Primary and secondary control among HIV-positive men in prison. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 70, 1307-1317.
84. Thompson, S. C., & Janigian, A. S. (1988). Life schemes: A framework for understanding the search for meaning. Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 7, 260-280.
85. Thompson, S. C., Nanni, C., & Levine, A. (1994). Primary versus secondary and disease versus consequence-related control in HIV-positive men. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 540-547.
86. Thompson, S. C., Sobolew-Shubin, A., Galbraith, M. E., Schwankovsky, L., & Cruzen, D. (1993). Maintaining perceptions of control: Finding perceived control in low-control circumstances. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 293-304.
87. Thompson, S. C., & Spacapan, S. (1991). Perceptions of control in vulnerable populations. Journal of Social Issues, 47(4), 1-21.
88. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131.
89. Vazquez, C. (1987). Judgment of contingency: Cognitive biases in depressed and nondepressed subjects. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 52, 419-431.
90. Wells, G. L., & Gavanski, I. (1989). Mental simulation of causality. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 56, 161-169.
91. White, R. W. (1959). Motivation reconsidered: The concept of competence. Psychological Review, 66, 297-333.
92. Wolfgang, A. K., Zenker, S. I., & Viscusi, T. (1984). Control motivation and the illusion of control in betting on dice. Journal of Psychology, 116, 67-72.
93. Wortman, C. B. (1975). Some determinants of perceived control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 31, 282-294.