Uncertainty and sensitivity in global carbon cycle modelling

Climate Research

Volumn 9, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 157-174

  Parkinson, Stuart ^a,b   Young, Peter ^a  

^a LANCASTER UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SURREY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Future carbon dioxide concentrations; Global carbon cycle model; Monte Carlo Simulation; Sensitivity analysis; Stochastic modelling; Uncertainty analysis

Indexed keywords

CARBON CYCLE; CARBON DIOXIDE; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 0031848608     PISSN: 0936577X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/cr009157     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Allen LH Jr, Boote KJ, Jones PH, Valle RR, Acock B, Rogers HH, Dahlman RC (1987) Response of vegetation to rising carbon dioxide: photosynthesis, biomass and seed yield of soybean. Global Biogeochem Cycles 1:1-14
2. Bacastow RB (1981) Numerical evaluation of the evasion factor. In: Bolin B (ed) Carbon cycle modelling: SCOPE 16. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, p 95-101
3. 2 will remain in the atmosphere? In: Bolin B, Doos BR, Jager J, Warrick RA (eds) The greenhouse effect, climatic change and ecosystems: SCOPE 29. Chap 3. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester
4. Box GEP, Jenkins GM (1970) Time series analysis, forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San Francisco
5. Broecker WS (1974) Chemical oceanography. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York
6. Dowlatabadi H, Kandlikar M (1995) Key uncertainties in climate change policy: results from ICAM-2, 6th Global Warming Conference, San Francisco
7. Emanuel WR, Killough GEG, Olson J (1981) Modelling the circulation of carbon in the world's terrestrial ecosystems. In: Bolin B (ed) Carbon cycle modelling: SCOPE 16. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, p 335-353
8. Enting IG (1982) Nuclear weapons data for use in carbon cycle modelling. Division of Atmospheric Physics, CSIRO, Mordialloc, Technical Paper 44
9. 2. Division of Atmospheric Research, CSIRO, Mordialloc, Technical Paper 27
10. Enting IG, Pearman GI (1983) Refinements to a one-dimensional carbon cycle model. Division of Atmospheric Research, CSIRO, Mordialloc, Technical Paper 3
11. Enting IG, Pearman GI (1987) Description of a one-dimensional carbon cycle model calibrated using techniques of constrained inversion. Tellus 39B:459-476
12. Enting IG, Wigley TML, Heimann M (1994) Future emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide: key ocean/atmosphere/land analyses. Division of Atmospheric Research, CSIRO, Mordialloc, Technical Paper 31
13. 2 in the past two centuries. Nature 324:237-238
14. Gardner RH, Trabalka JR (1985) Methods of uncertainty analysis for a global carbon dioxide model. Publication DOE/OR/21400-4. US Dept of Energy, Washington, DC
15. Hessheimer V, Heimann M, Levin I (1994) Radiocarbon evidence for a smaller oceanic carbon dioxide sink than previously believed. Nature 370:201-203
16. Hoffert MI, Callegari AJ, Hsieh CT (1980) The role of deep sea heat storage in the secular response to climatic forcing. J Geophys Res 85:6667-6679
17. 2, Appendix B. Division of Atmospheric Research, CSIRO, Mordialloc, Technical Paper 27
18. IPCC (1990) Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. Houghton JT, Jenkins GJ, Ephraums JJ (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
19. IPCC (1992) Climate change 1992: the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment. Houghton JT, Callender BA, Varney SK (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
20. IPCC (1995) Climate change 1994: radiative forcing of climate change and an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Bruce J, Lee H, Callander BA, Haites E, Harris N, Maskell K (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
21. IPCC (1996) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change - contribution of Working Group I to the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
22. Keeling CD (1973) Industrial production of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and limestone. Tellus 25:174-198
23. Keesman K (1990) Membership-set estimation using random scanning and principal component analysis. Math Comput Simul 32:535-543
24. Keesman K, van Straten G (1990) Set-membership approach to identification and prediction of lake eutrophication. Water Resour Res 26(11):2643-2652
25. Lassey KR, Enting IG, Grudinger CM (1996) The earth's radiocarbon budget. Tellus 48:487-501
26. 2 emissions - modern record. In: Boden TA, Serpanski RJ, Farrell MP (eds) Trends '91: a compendium of global change. Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge, TN, p 386-389
27. Martin JH, Knauer GA, Karl DM, Broenkow WW (1987) VERTEX: carbon cycling in the northeast Pacific. Deep Sea Res 34:267-285
28. 2 exchange at the airsea interface: time and space variability. Adv Space Res 11(3):77-85
29. Oeschger H, Siegenthaler U, Schotterer U, Gugelmann A (1975) A box diffusion model to study the carbon dioxide exchange in nature. Tellus 27:168-192
30. Parkinson SD (1995) The application of stochastic modelling techniques to global climate change. PhD thesis, Lancaster University
31. Scavia D (1993) Lake ecosystem modelling: uncertainty. In: Young PC (ed) Concise encyclopaedia of environmental systems. Pergamon Press, Oxford, p 318-320
32. 2 and the carbon cycle. In: Houghton JT, Meira Filho LG, Bruce J, Lee H, Callander BA, Haites E, Harris N, Maskell K (eds) Climate change 1994: radiative forcing of climate change and an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 35-71
33. 2 transfer from air to sea. In: Bolin B (ed) Carbon cycle modelling: SCOPE 16. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, p 249-257
34. 2 emissions during the past 200 years reconstructed by deconvolution of ice core data. Tellus 396:140-154
35. Spear RC (1970) The application of Kolmogorov-Renyi statistics to problems of parameter uncertainty in systems design. Int J Control 11(5):771-778
36. Spear RC (1993) Regional sensitivity analysis in environmental systems. In: Young PC (ed) Concise encyclopaedia of environmental systems. Pergamon Press, Oxford, p 476-479
37. Spear RC, Hornberger GM (1980) Eutrophication in Peel Inlet II: identification of critical uncertainties via generalized sensitivity analysis. Water Res 14:43-49
38. Whitehead P, Young PC (1979) Water quality in river systems: Monte Carlo analysis. Water Resour Res 15:451-459
39. Wigley TML, Raper SCB (1992) Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature 357: 293-300
40. Young PC (1983) The validity and credibility of models for badly defined systems. In: Beck MB, van Straten G (eds) Uncertainty and forecasting of water quality. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, p 69-100
41. Young PC (1984) Recursive estimation and time series analysis. Springer-Verlag, Berlin
42. Young PC, Beven KJ (1994) Data-based mechanistic modelling and the rainfall-flow nonlinearity. Environmetrics 5: 335-363 (special issue on 'Environmental Time Series Analysis')
43. Young PC, Lees M (1992) The active mixing volume: a new concept in modelling environmental systems. In: Barnett V, Turkman R (eds) Statistics and the environment. Wiley, Chichester, p 3-43
44. Young PC, Minchin PEH (1991) Environmetric time-series analysis: modelling natural systems from experimental time-series data. Int J Biol Macromol 13:190-201
45. Young PC, Naughton JJ, Neethling CG, Shellswell SH (1973) Macro-economic modeling: a case study. In: Eykhoff P (ed) Identification and system parameter estimation. Elsevier, New York, p 145-165
46. Young PC, Parkinson SD (1996) Simplicity out of complexity in forecasting climate change. Tech Note No. 146, Centre for Research on Environmental Systems and Statistics, Lancaster University
47. Young PC, Parkinson SD, Lees M (1996) Simplicity out of complexity in environmental systems: Occam's razor revisited. J Appl Stat 23(2-3):165-210