Study of global warming by GFDL climate models

Ambio

Volumn 27, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 182-186

  Manabe, Syukuro ^a  

^a JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE EFFECT;

EID: 0031803794     PISSN: 00447447     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Arrhenius, S 1896. On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Phil. Mag Series 5, 41, 237-276.
2. 2 and its influence on temperature. Q. J. Roy, Met Soc. 64, 223-237.
3. 2 theory of climate change. Tellus 8, 140-153.
4. Kondratiev, K.Y , and Niilisk, ILL 1960. On the question of carbon dioxide heat radiation in the atmosphere. Geofis. Pura. Appl. 46, 216-230.
5. 2 variation on the atmosphere heat balance, Tellus 12, 204-208.
6. 2 concentration in air on the radiation balance of the earth's surface and on the climate J Geophys. Res. 68, 3877-3886.
7. Manabe, S 1997 Early development in the study of greenhouse warming: The emergence of climate models. Ambio 26, 47-51
8. Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R.T 1967 Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity J. Atmos. Sci 24, 241-259.
9. Manabe, S. and Strickler, R.F. 1964. Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a convective adjustment. J. Atmos. Sci. 27, 361-385.
10. Manabe, S. and Holloway, Jr, J.L. 1975. The seasonal variation of the hydrological cycle as simulated by a global model of the atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res 80, 1617-1649.
11. 2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci. 32, 3-15.
12. 2 concentrations in the atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 85 (C10), 5529-5554
13. Manabe, S and Bryan, K 1969 Climate calculation with a combined ocean-atmosphere model. J. Atmos. Sci. 26, 786-789.
14. Mitchell, J.F.B., Johns, T.C., Gregory, J.M. and Tett, S.F.B. 1995. Climate response to increasing level of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. Nature 376, 501-504.
15. Stouffer, R.J., Manabe, S. and Bryan, K. 1989. Interhemispheric asymmetry in climate response to a gradual increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Nature 342, 660-662.
16. 2. Part I: Annual mean response. J. Climate 4, 785-818.
17. Manabe, S., Stouffer, R.J. and Spelman, M.J. 1994. Response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Ambio 23, 44-48.
18. The initial conditions for the time integration of the coupled model have seasonal and geographical distributions of surface temperature, surface salinity, and sea ice of the present with which both the atmospheric and oceanic model states are nearly in equilibrium. When the time integration of the model starts from this initial condition, the model climate drifts toward its own equilibrium state, which differs from the initial condition described above. To reduce this drift, the fluxes of heat and water imposed at the oceanic surface (including sea ice-covered areas) of die coupled model are modified by amounts that vary geographically and seasonally but do not change from one year to the next (see 16). Since the adjustments are determined prior to the time integration of the coupled model and are not correlated 10 the transient anomalies of temperature and salinity at sea surface, which can develop during its integration, they are unlikely to either systematically amplify or damp the anomalies. Owing to the flux adjustment technique described above, the model fluctuates around a realistic equilibrium state in the absence of thermal forcing.
19. Haywood, J., Stouffer, R.J., Wetherald, R.T., Manabe, S. and Ramaswamy, V. 1997. Transient response of a coupled model to estimated changes in greenhouse gas and sulfate concentrations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 1335-1338.
20. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1992. Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment Cambridge University Press. 200 pp.
21. Jones, P. and Wigley, T.M.L. 1991 Global and hemispheric anomalies. Trends '91: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Boden, T.A., Sepanski, R.J. and Stoss, F.W. (eds). Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USA, pp. 512-517.
22. The "mixed-layer model" was constructed by combining the atmospheric component of the coupled model to a simple mixed layer ocean model of vertically isothermal layer with uniform thickness of 50 meters.
23. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1996. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 572 pp.
24. 2 concentration, Clim. Change 3, 347-386.
25. Walker, J.C.G. and Kasting, J.F. 1992 Effect of fuel and forest conservation on future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Paleoceanogr. Paleoclimatol. Paleoecol. 97 151-189.
26. 2 on ihe ocean-atmosphere system. Nature 364, 215-218.
27. Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R.J 1994. Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide J Climate 7, 5-23
28. I thank the staff members of GFDL. in particular, Ronald J. Stouffer, Richard T. Wetherald, and Michael D. Spelman, without whose collaboration none of the studies mentioned here could be made. I owe very much to Drs. Joseph Swagorinsky and Jerry D. Mahlman, the first and the current directors of GFDL, who supported these studies wholeheartedly Finally, I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to the Volvo Enviromental Prize Foundation for this great honor.