Authoritarianism in Central Asia: Curse or cure?

Third World Quarterly

Volumn 19, Issue 1, 1998, Pages 29-43

  Kubicek, Paul ^a  

^a KOÇ UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AUTHORITARIANISM; DEVELOPING REGION; NATIONAL POLITICS; POLITICAL SYSTEM; STATE BUILDING;

ASIA, (CENTRAL);

EID: 0031745298     PISSN: 01436597     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01436599814514     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. F Fukuyama, The end of history', The National Interest, Summer 1989, pp 3-18.
2. One might also mention that apparent backsliding towards authoritarianism has occurred in Belarus and Azerbaijan.
3. These surveys were conducted by the Democracy and Local Governance Project, which conducted interviews with local officials in 41 countries from 1993 to 1996. A preliminary report on the data is given in H Teune, 'Globalization and local democracy', paper presented at the International Studies Association-Japan Association of International Relations Joint Conference, Makuhari, September 1996.
4. This type of argument has been put forth most forcefully in S Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968. A similar argument - that strong executive authority is necessary to introduce reforms and only later should give way to more political inclusion - is made in S Haggard & R Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995. In the Soviet case, the most famous example of such a position is A Migranian, 'Dolgii put'k evropeiskomu domu', Novy Mir, 7, 1989, pp 166-184.
5. This type of argument has been put forth most forcefully in S Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968. A similar argument - that strong executive authority is necessary to introduce reforms and only later should give way to more political inclusion - is made in S Haggard & R Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995. In the Soviet case, the most famous example of such a position is A Migranian, 'Dolgii put'k evropeiskomu domu', Novy Mir, 7, 1989, pp 166-184.
6. This type of argument has been put forth most forcefully in S Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968. A similar argument - that strong executive authority is necessary to introduce reforms and only later should give way to more political inclusion - is made in S Haggard & R Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995. In the Soviet case, the most famous example of such a position is A Migranian, 'Dolgii put'k evropeiskomu domu', Novy Mir, 7, 1989, pp 166-184.
7. David Laitin persuasively argues that democracy can be consolidated in multi-ethnic states, but one of his central notions is that the centre must be able to make credible threats to regional/ethnic politicians and movements. In the states of Central Asia, where state institutions must be built virtually from scratch, one might be sceptical if the centre could hold under democratic conditions. See D Laitin (cited as principal author), Transitions to democracy and territorial integrity', in A Przeworski et al., Sustainable Democracy, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995.
8. This is the title of President Karimov's most recent political treatise.
9. For more on these groups, see interviews with Mukhammad Salikh, chair of Erk and Abdurakhim Pulat, co-chair of Birlik in Tsentral 'naia Aziia (Sweden), 1, 1995, pp 11-19.
10. Not coincidentally perhaps, one of the puppet parties created in 1996 by Karimov is named Adolat.
11. According to official data, Tajiks compose 5% of the population of Uzbekistan. Tajiks maintain the figure is even higher, and some claim the historic cities of Samarkand and Bukhara as their own and push for their incorporation with Tajikistan.
12. See discussion in T Koychuev, Postsovietskaia Tsentral'naia Aziia: sostoianie, poisk, puti, vozmozhnosti, Alma-Aty: Kazakhstan Institute of Strategic Studies, 1994, pp 10-12.
13. Statistical data about all post-Soviet economies, however, should be treated with some caution. These are reported by S Zhukov, 'Economic development in the states of Central Asia', in B Rumer (ed) Central Asia in Transition: Dilemmas of Political and Economic Development, London: ME Sharpe, 1996, p 107.
14. World Development Report 1996: From Plan to Market, Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996, p 15.
15. From S Safaev, cited in 'Is the Uzbek model working?' Transitions, 4 (2), 1997, p 100.
16. For a critique of Uzbekistan's model, see A Apostolou, 'Is the Uzbek model working?', Transitions, 4 (2), 1997, pp 99, 101. There are complaints of hyper-bureaucratisation and in the autumn of 1996 the government experienced a foreign exchange crisis and forced all banks to stop selling dollars.
17. Zhukov, 'Economic development', p 114.
18. R Kangas, 'Imposing order on Uzbekistan: a profile of Uzbek President Islam Karimov', Transition, 2 (18), 1996, pp 26-29.
19. G O'Donnell, 'Delegative democracy', Journal of Democracy, 5 (1), 1994, pp 55-69.
20. As is typical in all Central Asian elections, outside observers reported irregularities, such as ballot stuffing, multiple voting and intimidation of voters. Turnout figures (95% was reported) were also disputed.
21. Data from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. I thank Gwenn Hoffman for providing me with the reports on the surveys.
22. 'Kazakh Parliamentary election results', Central Asia Quarterly, 3 (1), 1996, p 4.
23. Pravda, 14 December 1995, p 1.
24. Koychuev, Postsovietshaia Tsentral'naia Aziia.
25. Other surveys find similar results. See AB Elebaeva, Razvitie mezhetnicheskikh otnoshenii v novykh nezavisimykhgosudarstvakh Tsentral'noi Azii, Bishkek: Ilim, 1995, pp 238-239: and B Abdygaliev, 'Russkie v Kazakhstane: Problemy, mify, i real nost', Kazakhstan i mirovoe soobshchestvo, 1 (2), 1995, pp 73-80.
26. Other surveys find similar results. See AB Elebaeva, Razvitie mezhetnicheskikh otnoshenii v novykh nezavisimykhgosudarstvakh Tsentral'noi Azii, Bishkek: Ilim, 1995, pp 238-239: and B Abdygaliev, 'Russkie v Kazakhstane: Problemy, mify, i real nost', Kazakhstan i mirovoe soobshchestvo, 1 (2), 1995, pp 73-80.
27. Laitin, 'Transitions to democracy'.
28. A Rabushka & K Shepsle. Politics in Plural Societies: A Theory of Democratic Instability, Columbus, OH: Merrill, 1972.
29. I Bremmer & C Welt, 'The trouble with democracy in Kazakhstan', Central Asian Survey, 15 (2), 1996, p 179.
30. B Pannier, 'The shrinking shores of Central Asia's "island of democracy"', Transition, 2 (7), 1996, p 56.
31. T Koychuev & A Brudnyi, Nezavisimyi Kyrgyzstan: tretii put', Bishek: Ilim, 1993.
32. World Development Report 1996, pp 14-15.
33. OMRI Daily Report, 8 December 1994.
34. Despite such problems, the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) observers present in Kyrgyzstan declared these elections fair and free. For more, see I Pryde, 'Kyrgyzstan's slow progress to reform', World Today, June 1995, pp 115-118.
35. G Gleason, 'Indigenous democracy in Central Asia', unpublished paper prepared for Open Society Institute, 1996.
36. Haggard & Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions, p 310.
37. This is the prime objection of Bremmer & Welt, 'The trouble with democracy in Kazakhstan', who are otherwise sympathetic to the maintenance of authoritarianism in Kazakhstan.
38. There are however, concerns of what might be called 'creeping Kazakhisation' or the beginnings of an 'ethnocracy' in Kazakhstan. See Y Kulchik, 'Central Asia after the empire: ethnic groups, communities, and problems', and N Amrekulov, 'Inter-ethnic conflict and resolution in Kazakhstan', both in S Eisenhower & R Sagdeev (eds), Central Asia: Conflict, Resolution, and Change, Chevy Chase: Center for Post-Soviet Studies, 1995. In addition, Akaev has been accused of favouring northerners over southerners in his administration, although he has been sensitive to the problem of ethnic minorities.
39. There are however, concerns of what might be called 'creeping Kazakhisation' or the beginnings of an 'ethnocracy' in Kazakhstan. See Y Kulchik, 'Central Asia after the empire: ethnic groups, communities, and problems', and N Amrekulov, 'Inter-ethnic conflict and resolution in Kazakhstan', both in S Eisenhower & R Sagdeev (eds), Central Asia: Conflict, Resolution, and Change, Chevy Chase: Center for Post-Soviet Studies, 1995. In addition, Akaev has been accused of favouring northerners over southerners in his administration, although he has been sensitive to the problem of ethnic minorities.
40. Kulchik, 'Central Asia after the empire'.
41. One could argue that the results were less a result of the voters' will than the machinations of political elites. Even if this is true, it points to the real limits of any attempt at democracy in the region.