Modelling use, investment, and development in the British office market

Environment and Planning A

Volumn 30, Issue 8, 1998, Pages 1409-1427

  Tsolacos, S ^a   Keogh, G ^b   McGough, T ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN   (United Kingdom)

^c Investment Research   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BUSINESS PROPERTY; ECONOMETRICS; INVESTMENT ACTIVITY; PROPERTY MARKET;

UK;

EID: 0031668065     PISSN: 0308518X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1068/a301409     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Ball M, 1994, "The 1980s property boom" Environment and Planning A 26 671-696
2. Barkham R, Geltner D, 1994, "Unsmoothing British valuation-based returns without assuming an efficient market'" Journal of Property Research 11(2) 81-95
3. Barras R, 1983, "A simple theoretical model of the office-development cycle" Environment and Planning A 15 1381-1394
4. Barras R, 1984, "The office development cycle in London" Land Development Studies 1 35-50
5. Barras R, 1994, "Property and the economic cycle: building cycles revisited" Journal of Property Research 11 183-197
6. Barras R, Ferguson D, 1987, "Dynamic modelling of the building cycle: 2. Empirical results" Environment and Planning A 19 493-520
7. Beauregard R A, 1994, "Capital switching and the built environment: United States 1970-1989" Environment and Planning A 715-732
8. Bischoff C, 1970, "A model of non-residential construction in the United States" American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 60(2) 10-17
9. Bower J L, 1965, "Investment in commercial construction" Review of Economics and Statistics 47 351-396
10. D'Arcy E, McCough T, Tsolacos S, 1996a, "Univariate models and cross-sectional analysis of office rents in twenty-five European cities", paper presented at the Cambridge-Wharton International Conference on Real Estate Investment, Queen's College, Cambridge, March; copy available from the authors
11. D'Arcy E, McGough T, Tsolacos S, 1996b, "A study of office market dynamics in London and Paris", paper presented at the Third Conference of the European Real Estate Society on Property Investment in a European and International Context, Belfast, June; copy available from the authors
12. DoE, 1993-1995 Housing and Construction Statistics Department of the Environment (The Stationery Office, London)
13. Feagin J R, 1987, "The secondary circuit of capital: office construction in Houston, Texas" International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 11 172-190
14. Fisher J D 1992, "Integrating research on markets for space and capital" American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association Journal 20(2) 161-180
15. Fraser W D, 1993 Principles of Property Investment and Pricing 2nd edition (Macmillan, London)
16. Gardiner C, Henneberry J, 1988, "The development of a simple regional model of office rent prediction" Journal of Valuation 7 36-52
17. Gardiner C, Henneberry J, 1991, "Predicting regional office rents using habit-persistence theories" Journal of Property Valuation and Investment 9 215-226
18. Geltner D, 1991, "Smoothing in appraisal-based returns" Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 4 327-345
19. Giussani B, Hsai M, Tsolacos S, 1993, "A comparative analysis of the major determinants of office rental values in Europe" Journal of Property Valuation and Investment 11 157-172
20. Grebler L, Burns L, 1982, "Construction cycles in the United States since world war II" American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association Journal 10 123-151
21. Haila A, 1990, "The theory of land rent at the crossroads" Environment and Planning D: Society and Space 8 275-296
22. Harbor J, Morgan D, 1971, "The determinants of commercial construction" Western Economic Journal 9(2) 172-183
23. Harvey D, 1985 The Urbanisation of Capital (Basil Blackwell, Oxford)
24. Harvey D, 1989 The Condition of Postmodernity (Basil Blackwell, Oxford)
25. Hekman J, 1985, "Rental price adjustment and investment in the office market" American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association Journal 13(1) 31-47
26. Hendershott P, Lizieri C, Matysiak G, 1996, "Modelling the London office market", paper presented at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' Cutting Edge Conference, University of the West of England, Bristol, September; copy available from the authors
27. JLW, 1992-1995 Jones Lang Wootton: Property Index Jones Lang Wootton, Fund Management, 19 Hanover Square, London W1R 9DA
28. Keogh G, 1991, "The British property market: failing to reconcile use and investment", Discussion Papers in Urban and Regional Economics, series C, number 59, Department of Economics, University of Reading, Reading
29. Keogh G, 1994, "Use and investment markets in British real estate" Journal of Property Valuation and Investment 12(4) 58-72
30. Keogh G, D'Arcy E, 1994, "Market maturity and property market behaviour: a European comparison of mature and emergent markets" Journal of Property Research 11(3) 215-235
31. Key T, MacGregor B, Nanthakumaran N, Zarkesh F, 1994 Understanding the Property Cycle: Economic Cycles and Property Cycles (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London)
32. Kling J, McCue T, 1987, "Office building investment and the macroeconomy: empirical evidence, 1973-1985" American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association Journal 15(3) 234-255
33. Lizieri C, Satchell S, 1997, "Interactions between property and equity markets: an investigation of linkages in the UK 1972 to 92" Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 15 (1) 11-26
34. McClure K, 1991, "Estimating occupied office space: comparing alternative forecast methodologies" Journal of Real Estate Research 6(3) 305-314
35. McCue T, Kling J, 1994, "Real estate returns and the macroeconomy: some empirical evidence from real estate investment trust data, 1972-1991" Journal of Real Estate Research 9(3) 277-287
36. McGough A J, Tsolacos S, 1997, "The stylised facts of the UK commercial building cycles" Environment and Planning A 29 485-500
37. McGough T, Tsolacos S, 1994, "Forecasting office rental values using vector autoregressive models", in Proceedings of the Cutting Edge Property Research Conference (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London)
38. McGough T, Tsolacos S, 1995a, "Forecasting commercial rental values using ARIMA models" Journal of Property Valuation and Investment 13(5) 6-22
39. McGough T, Tsolacos S, 1995b, "Property cycles in the UK: an empirical investigation of the stylised facts" Journal of Property Finance 6(4) 45-62
40. Pollakowski H, Wachter S, Lynford L, 1992, "Did office market size matter in the 1980s? A time-series cross-sectional analysis of metropolitan area office markets" American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association Journal 20(2) 303-324
41. Romijn G, Hakfoort J, Lie R, 1996, "A model of the demand for office space per worker", DP-TI-96-85/5, Papers in Regional and Environmental Economics, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands; copy available from the authors
42. Rosen K, 1984, "Toward a model of the office building sector" American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association Journal 12(3) 261-269
43. Shilling J, Sirmans C, Corgel J, 1987, "Price adjustment process for rental office space" Journal of Urban Economics 22 90-100
44. Wheaton W, 1987, "The cyclic behaviour of the national office market" American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association Journal 15(4) 281-299
45. Wheaton W, Torto R, 1988, "Vacancy rates and the future of office rents" American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association Journal 16(4) 430-436
46. Van der Velde M, 1992, "Structure and dynamics of the office stock in western Europe", paper presented at the 32nd European Congress of the Regional Science Association, Louvain-la-Neuve, August; copy available from the authors