Judgment and decision making

Annual Review of Psychology

Volumn 49, Issue , 1998, Pages 447-477

  Mellers, B A ^a   Schwartz, A ^b   Cooke, A D J ^c  

^a OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT CHICAGO   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

Author keywords

Beliefs; Choices; Emotions; Risk; Utilities

Indexed keywords

CONFLICT; DECISION MAKING; EMOTION; HIGH RISK BEHAVIOR; HUMAN; LOGIC; PHYSIOLOGY; PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORY; REVIEW;

CHOICE BEHAVIOR; CONFLICT (PSYCHOLOGY); DECISION MAKING; EMOTIONS; HUMANS; JUDGMENT; LOGIC; PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORY; RISK-TAKING;

EID: 0031607153     PISSN: 00664308     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.psych.49.1.447     Document Type: Article

References (238)

1. Ariely D, Wallsten TS. 1995. Seeking subjective dominance in multidimensional space: an explanation of asymmetric dominance effect Org Behav. Hum Decis. Process 63:223-32
2. Arkes HR. 1996. The psychology of waste J. Behav Decis. Mak. 9:213-24
3. Arkes HR, Joyner CA, Pezzo MV, Nash JG, Seigel-Jacobs K, Stone E. 1994. The psychology of windfall gains. Org. Behav Hum Decis. Process. 59:331-47
4. Bar-Hillel M, Neter E. 1996. Why are people reluctant to exchange lottery tickets? J. Pers Soc Psychol. 70:17-27
5. Baron J. 1994. Nonconsequentalist decisions. Behav. Brain Sci. 17:1-42
6. Baron J. 1997. Biases in the quantitative measurement of values for public decisions. Psychol. Bull. 122:72-88
7. Baron J, Greene J. 1996. Determinants of insensitivity to quantity in valuation of public goods: contribution, warm glow, budget constraints, availability, and prominence. J. Exp. Psychol. Appl. 2:107-25
8. Baron J, Ritov I. 1994. Reference points and omission bias. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process, 59:475-98
9. Baron J, Spranca M. 1997. Protected values. Org Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 70:1-16
10. Barron FH, Barrett BE. 1996a. The efficacy of SMARTER-Simple Multiattribute Rating Technique Extended to Ranking. Acta Psychol. 93:23-36
11. Barron HF, Barrett BE. 1996b. Decision quality using ranked attribute weights. Manage. Sci. 42:1515-23
12. Becker GM, McClintock CG. 1967. Value: behavioral decision theory. Annu. Rev Psychol 18:239-86
13. Bell D. 1982. Regret in decision making under uncertainty. Opin. Res 20:961-81
14. Bell D. 1985. Disappointment in decision making under uncertainty. Opin. Res 33: 1-27
15. Birnbaum MH. 1983. Base rates in Bayesian inference signal detection analysis of the cab problem. Am. J. Psychol. 96:85-94
16. Birnbaum MH. 1992. Issues in utility measurement. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process 52:319-30
17. Birnbaum MH, Beeghley D. 1997. Violations of branch independence in judgments of the value of gambles. Psychol. Sci. 8: 87-94
18. Birnbaum MH, Coffey G, Mellers BA, Weiss R. 1992. Utility measurement: configural-weight theory and the judge's point of view. J. Exp. Psychol. Hum. Percept. Perform. 18:331-46
19. Birnbaum MH, McIntosh WR. 1996. Violations of branch independence in choices between gambles. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 67:91-110
20. Birnbaum MH, Sutton SE. 1992. Scale convergence and utility measurement. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 52:183-215
21. Birnbaum MH, Thompson LA, Bean DJ. 1997. Tests of interval independence vs. configurai weighting using judgments of strength of preference. J. Exp. Psychol.: Hum. Percept. Perform. In press
22. Birnbaum MH, Viera R. 1997. Configural weighting in two-and four-outcome gambles. J Exp. Psychol.: Hum. Percept. Perform. 23:939-47
23. Bodenhausen GV, Kramer GP, Susser K. 1994. Happiness and Stereotypie thinking in social judgment. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 66:621-32
24. Boles TL, Messick DM. 1995. A reverse outcome bias: the influence of multiple reference points on the evaluation of outcomes and decisions. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 61:262-75
25. Bontempo RN, Bottom WP, Weber EU. 1997. Cross-cultural differences in risk perception: a model-based approach. Risk Anal. 17:479-88
26. Brenner LA, Koehler DJ, Liberman V, Tversky A. 1996. Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: a critical examination, Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 65:212-19
27. Busemeyer JR, Medin DL, Hastie R, eds. 1995. Decision Making from a Cognitive Perspective. San Diego: Academic
28. Busemeyer JR, Townsend JT. 1993. Decision field theory, a dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment. Psychol. Rev. 100:432-59
29. Camerer C 1995 Individual decision making. See Kagel & Roth 1995, pp. 587-703
30. Camerer C. 1990. Behavioral game theory. In Insights in Decision Making, ed. RM Hogarth, pp. 311-36. Chicago: Univ Chicago Press
31. Camerer C. 1995. Individual decision making. In The Handbook of Experimental Economics, ed. JH Kagel, AE Roth, pp. 587-703. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
32. Camerer C, Weber M. 1992. Recent developments in modeling preferences: uncertainty and ambiguity. J. Risk Uncertain. 5:325-70
33. Chapman GB. 1996a. Temporal discounting and utility for health and money. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn. 22:771-91
34. Chapman GB. 1996b. Expectations and preferences for sequences of health and money. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 67:59-75
35. Chechile R, Cooke AC. 1996. An experimental test of a general class of utility models: evidence for context dependency. J. Risk Uncertain 14:75-93
36. Cho Y, Luce RD. 1995. Tests of hypotheses about certainty equivalents and joint receipt of gambles. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 64:229-48
37. Cho Y, Luce RD, von Winterfeldt D. 1994. Tests of assumptions about the joint receipt of gambles in rank-and sign-dependent utility theory. J. Exp. Psychol.: Hum. Percept Perform. 20:931-43
38. Christensen C, Heckerling P, Mackesy-Amiti ME, Bernstein LM, Elstein AS. 1995. Pervasiveness of framing effects among physicians and medical students. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 8, 169-80
39. Chung N, von Winterfeldt D, Luce RD. 1994. An experimental test of event commutativity in decision making under uncertainty. Psychol. Sci. 5:394-400
40. Cooke ADJ, Mellers BA. 1997. Multiattribute judgment: context effects in single attributes. J Exp. Psychol.: Ham. Percept. Perform. In press
41. Coombs CH, Lehner PE. 1984. Conjoint design and analysis of the bilinear model: an application to judgments of risk. J. Math. Psychol. 28:1-42
42. Cosmides L, Tooby J. 1996. Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition 58:1-73
43. Dawes RM. 1997. Judgment, decision making, and interference. In The Handbook of Social Psychology, ed. D Gilbert, S Fiske, G Lindzey. Boston, MA. McGraw-Hill, pp. 497-548
44. Dawes RM, Mulford M. 1996. The false consensus effect and overconfidence: flaws in judgment or flaws in how we study judgment? Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 65:201-11
45. de Dreu CKW, Carnevale PJD, Emans BJM, van de Vliert E. 1994. Effects of gain-loss frames in negotiation: loss aversion, mismatching, and frame adoption. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 60:90-107
46. Diederich A. 1997. Dynamic stochastic models for decision making under time constraints. J. Math. Psychol 41:260-74
47. Dougherty MRP, Gettys CF, Oden EE. 1997. MINERVA-DM: a memory processes model for judgments of likelihood. Psychol. Rev. In press
48. Edwards W. 1961. Behavioral decision theory. Annu. Rev Psychol. 12:473-98
49. Edwards W. 1991. Influence diagrams, Bayesian imperialism, and the Collins case: an appeal to reason. Cardozo Law Rev. 13: 1025-74
50. Edwards W. 1992. Utility Theories. Measurements and Applications. Boston: Kluwer
51. Edwards W, Barron FH. 1994. SMARTS and SMARTER: improved simple methods for multiattribute utility measurement. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 60:306-25
52. Einhorn HJ, Hogarth RM. 1981. Behavioral decision theory: processes of judgment and choice Annu. Rev. Psychol. 32:53-88
53. Elster J. 1989. Social norms and economic theory. J Econ Per. 3:99-117
54. Erev I, Wallsten TS, Budescu DV. 1994. Simultaneous over-and underconfidence: the role of error in judgment processes. Psychol. Rev. 101:519-27
55. Estrada CA, Isen AM, Young MJ. 1994. Positive affect improves creative problem solving and influences reported source of practice satisfaction in physicians. Motiv. Emot. 18:285-99
56. Fagley NS, Miller PM. 1990. The effect of framing on choice: interactions with risk taking propensity, cognitive style, and sex. Person. Soc. Psychol. Bull. 16:496-510
57. Fiedler K. 1988. Emotional mood, cognitive style, and behavioral regulation. In Affect, Cognition, and Social Behavior, ed. K Fielder, J Forgas, pp. 100-19. Toronto: Hogrefe Int.
58. Fischer GW. 1995. Range sensitivity of attribute weights in multiattribute value models. Org. Behav Hum. Decis. Process. 62: 252-66
59. Fischer GW, Hawkins SA. 1993. Strategy compatibility, scale compatibility, and the prominence effect. J. Exp. Psychol.: Hum. Percept. Perform. 19:580-97
60. Fischhoff B, Bostrom A, Quadrel MJ. 1997. Risk perception and communication. In Oxford Textbook of Public Health, ed. R Detels, W Holland, J McEwen, GS Omenn, pp. 987-1002. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
61. Fischhoff B, Furby L. 1988. Measuring values: a conceptual framework for interpreting transactions. J. Risk Uncertain 1: 147-84
62. Fischhoff B, Lichtenstein S, Slovic P, Derby SC, Keeney RL. 1981. Acceptable Risk. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press
63. Fiske AP. 1992. The four elementary forms of sociality: framework for a unified theory of social relations. Psychol. Rev. 99: 689-723
64. Fiske AP, Tetlock PE. 1997. Taboo tradeoffs: reactions to transactions that transgress the domains of relationships. Polit. Psychol. 18:255-97
65. Flynn J, Slovic P, Mertz CK. 1994. Gender, race, and perception of environmental health risks. Risk Anal. 14:1101-8
66. Fox CR, Rogers BA, Tversky A. 1996. Options traders exhibit subaddititve decision weights. J. Risk Uncertain. 13:5-17
67. Fox CR, Tversky A. 1995. Ambiguity aversion and comparative ignorance. Q. J. Econ. 110:585-603
68. Fox CR, Tversky A, 1997. A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. Manage. Sci. In press
69. Fredrickson BL, Kahneman D. 1993. Duration neglect in retrospective evaluations of affective episodes. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 65: 45-55
70. Frisch D. 1993. Reasons for framing effects. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 54: 399-429
71. Frisch D, Clemen RT. 1994. Beyond expected utility; rethinking behavioral decision research. Psychol. Bull. 116:46-54
72. Garland H, Newport S. 1991. Effects of absolute and relative sunk costs on the decision to persist with a course of action. Org. Behav Hum, Decis. Process. 48:55-69
73. Gigerenzer G. 1991. How to make cognitive illusions disappear: beyond "heuristics and biases." Eur. Rev. Soc. Psychol. 2: 83-115
74. Gigerenzer G, 1993. The bounded rationality of probabilistic mental models. In Rationality: Psychological, and Philosophical Perspectives, ed. KI Manktelow, DE Over, pp. 243-313. London: Routledge
75. Gigerenzer G. 1996. Rationality: why social context matters. In Interactive Minds: Life-span Perspectives on the Social Foundation of Cognition, ed. P Baltes, UM Staudinger, pp. 319-46. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press
76. Gigerenzer G. 1997. Bounded rationality: models of fast and frugal inference. Swiss J. Econ. Stat. 133:201-18
77. Gigerenzer G, Goldstein D. 1996. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality. Psychol. Rev. 103:650-69
78. Gigerenzer G, Hoffrage U. 1995. How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: frequency formats. Psychol Rev 102:684-704
79. Gigerenzer G, Hoffrage U, Kleinbolting H. 1991. Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychol. Rev. 98:506-28
80. Gilovich T, Medvec VH. 1994. The temporal pattern to the experience of regret. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 67:357-65
81. Gilovich T, Medvec VH. 1995. The experience of regret: what, why, and when. Psychol Rev. 102:379-95
82. Gluck MA, Bower GH. 1988. From conditioning to category learning: an adaptive network model. J. Exp. Psychol. 117:227-47
83. Green DP, Kahneman D, Kunreuther H. 1994. How the scope and method of public funding affect willingness to pay for public goods. Public Opin. Q. 58:49-67
84. Gregory R, Brown TC, Knetsch JL. 1996. Valuing risks to the environment. Ann. Am. Acad Polit. Soc. Sci. 545:54-63
85. Griffin D, Tversky A. 1992. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cogn. Psychol. 24:411-35
86. Hammond K. 1996. Human Judgment and Social Policy. New York: Oxford Univ. Press
87. Heath C, Tversky A. 1990. Preference and belief: ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty. In Contemporary Issues in Decision Making, ed. K Borcherding, OI Larichev, DM Messick, pp. 93-123. Amsterdam: North-Holland
88. Hogarth RM, Kunreuther H. 1992. Pricing insurance and warranties: ambiguity and correlated risks. Geneva Pap. Risk Insur. Theory 17(1):35-60
89. Hogarth RM, Kunreuther H. 1995. Decision making under ignorance: arguing with yourself. J. Risk Uncertain. 10:15-36
90. Howard R, Matheson J. 1984. Influence diagrams. In II Readings on the Principles and Applications of Decision Analysis, ed. R Howard, J Matheson, pp. 721-62. Menlo Park, CA: Strat. Decis.
91. Hsee C. 1996. The evaluability hypothesis: an explanation for preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of alternatives. Org. Behav Hum. Decis. Process. 67:247-57
92. Huber J, Payne JW, Puto C. 1982. Adding asymmetrically dominated alternatives: violations of regularity and the similarity hypothesis. J. Consum. Res. 9:90-98
93. Irwin JR. 1994. Buying/selling price preference reversals: preference for environmental changes in buying versus selling modes. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 60:431-57
94. Irwin JR, Slovic P, Lichtenstein S, McClelland GH. 1993. Preference reversals and the measurement of environmental values. J. Risk Uncertain 6:5-18
95. Isen AM. 1993. Positive affect and decision making. In Handbook of Emotions, ed. M Lewis, JM Haviland, pp. 261-77. New York: Guilford
96. Johnson EJ, Hershey J, Meszaros J, Kunreuther H. 1993. Framing, probability distortions, and insurance decisions. J. Risk Uncertain. 7:35-51
97. Jones-Lee MW, Loomes G. 1995. Scale and context effects in the valuation of transportation safety. J. Risk Uncertain 11: 183-203
98. Josephs RA, Larrick RP, Steele CM, Nisbett RE. 1992. Protecting the self from the negative consequences of risky decisions. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 62:26-37
99. Juslin P. 1994. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis Process. 57:226-46
100. Juslin P, Olsson H, Bjorkman M. 1997. Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: on the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. In press
101. Kagel JH, Roth AE, eds. 1995. The Handbook of Experimental Economics Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
102. Kahn BE, Isen AM. 1993. The influence of positive affect on variety seeking among safe, enjoyable products. J. Consum. Res. 20:257-70
103. Kahneman D. 1994. New challenges to the rationality assumption. J. Inst. Theor. Econ. 150:18-36
104. Kahneman D. 1995. Varieties of counterfactual thinking. See Roese & Olson 1995, pp. 375-96
105. Kahneman D, Fredrickson BL, Schreiber CA, Redelmeier DA. 1993a. When more pain is preferred to less: adding a better end. Psychol. Sci 4:401-5
106. Kahneman D, Knetsch JL. 1992. Valuing pubtic goods: the purchase of moral satisfaction. J Environ. Econ Manage 22:55-70
107. Kahneman D, Knetsch JL, Thaler RH. 1990. Experimental tests of the endowment effect and the Coase theorem. J. Polit. Econ. 98:1325-48
108. Kahneman D, Lovallo D. 1993. Timid choices and bold forecasts: a cognitive perspective on risk taking. Manage Sci. 39:17-31
109. Kahneman D, Ritov I. 1994. Determinants of stated willingness to pay for public goods: a study in the headline method. J. Risk Uncertain. 9:5-38
110. Kahneman D, Ritov I, Jacowitz JE, Grant P. 1993b. Stated willingness to pay for public goods: a psychological perspective. Psychol. Sci 4:310-15
111. Kahneman D, Tversky A. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47:263-91
112. Kashirna Y, Maher P. 1995. Framing of decisions under ambiguity. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 8:33-49
113. Keeney RL, Raiffa H. 1976. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. New York: Wiley
114. Koehler JJ. 1996. The base rate fallacy reconsidered: descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges. Behav. Brain Sci. 19:1-53
115. Kraus N, Malmfors T, Slovic P. 1992. Intuitive toxicology: expert and lay judgments of chemical risks. Risk Anal. 12:215-32
116. Kruschke JK. 1996. Base rates in category learning. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn. 22:3-26
117. Kühberger A. 1995. The framing of decisions: a new look at old problems. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 62:230-40
118. Kunreuther H, Meszaros J, Hogarth RM, Spranca M. 1995. Ambiguity and underwriter decision processes. J. Econ. Behav. Org. 26:337-52
119. Landman J. 1993. Regret: The Persistence of the Possible. Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press
120. Larrick RP, Nisbett RE, Morgan JN. 1993. Who uses the cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory. Org Behav Hum. Decis. Process. 56:331-47
121. Lewinsohn S, Mano H. 1993. Multiattribute choice and affect: the influence of naturally occurring and manipulated moods on choice processes. J. Behav Decis. Mak. 6:33-51
122. Link SW. 1992. The Wave Theory of Difference and Similarity. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum
123. Loewenstein GF, Elster J. eds 1992 Choice Over Time New York: Russell Sage Found.
124. Loewenstein GF, Issacharoff S. 1994. Source dependence in the valuation of objects. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 7:157-68
125. Loewenstein GF, Prelec D. 1993. Preferences for sequences of outcomes. Psychol. Rev. 100:91-108
126. Loomes G, Sugden R. 1982. Regret theory: an alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Econ. J. 92:805-24
127. Loomes G, Sugden R. 1986. Disappointment and dynamic consistency in choice under uncertainty. Rev. Econ. Stud. 53:271-82
128. Lopes LL. 1990. Re-modeling risk aversion: a comparison of Bernoullian and rank dependent value approaches. In Acting Under Uncertainty: Multidisciplinary Conceptions, ed. GM von Furstenberg, pp. 267-99 Boston: Kluwer
129. Lopes LL. 1994. Psychology and economics: perspectives on risk, cooperation, and the marketplace. Annu. Rev. Psychol. 45: 197-227
130. Lopes LL. 1995. Algebra and process in the modeling of risky choice. In The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, ed. JR Busemeyer, DL Medin, R Hastie, 32: 177-219. San Diego: Academic
131. Lopes LL. 1996. When time is of the essence: averaging, aspiration, and the short run. Org. Behav Hum. Decis. Process. 65: 179-89
132. Luce M, Bettman J, Payne JW. 1997. Choice processing in emotionally difficult decisions. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn. 23:384-405
133. Luce RD. 1991. Rank-and sign-dependent linear utility models for binary gambles. J. Econ. Theory 53:75-100
134. Luce RD. 1996. When four distinct ways to measure utility are the same. J. Math. Psychol. 40:297-317
135. Luce RD, Fishburn PC. 1991. Rank-and sign-dependent linear utility models for finite first-order gambles. J. Risk Uncertain. 4: 29-59
136. Luce RD, Fishburn PC. 1995. A note on deriving rank-dependent utility using additive joint receipts. J. Risk Uncertain. 11: 5-16
137. Luce RD, Weber EU. 1986. An axiomatic theory of conjoint, expected risk. J Math. Psychol. 30:188-205
138. Mano H. 1992. Judgments under distress: assessing the role of unpleasantness and arousal in judgment formation. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 52:216-45
139. Mano H. 1994. Risk taking, framing effects, and affect. Org, Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 57:38-58
140. March JG. 1994. A Primer of Decision Making. New York: Free
141. March JG. 1996. Learning to be risk averse. Psychol. Rev. 103:309-19
142. Markman AB, Medin DL. 1995. Similarity and alignment in choice. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 63:117-30
143. McCarthy AM, Schoorman FD, Cooper AC. 1993. Reinvestment decisions by entrepreneurs: rational decision-making or escalation of commitment? J Bus. Vent. 8: 9-24
144. Medin DL, Edelson SM. 1988. Problem structure and the use of base-rate information from experience. J. Exp. Psychol. 117: 68-85
145. Mellers BA, Biagini K. 1994. Similarity and choice. Psychol. Rev. 101:505-18
146. Mellers BA, Chang S. 1994. Representations of risk judgments. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 57:167-84
147. Mellers BA, Chang S, Birnbaum MH, Ordóñez LD. 1992a. Preferences, prices, and ratings in risky decision making. J. Exp. Psychol.: Hum. Percept. Perform. 18: 347-61
148. Mellers BA, Cooke ADJ. 1994. Trade-offs depend on attribute range. J. Exp. Psychol.: Hum Percept. Perform. 20:1055-67
149. Mellers BA, Cooke ADJ. 1996. The role of task and context in preference measurement. Psychol. Sci. 7:76-82
150. Mellers BA, Schwartz A, Ho K, Ritov I. 1997a. Decision affect theory: emotional reactions to the outcomes of risky options. Psychol Sci. In press
151. Mellers BA, Schwartz A, Weber EU. 1997b. Another look at the reflection effect. In Choices, Decisions, and Measurement: Essays in Honor of R. Duncan Luce, ed. AA Marley, pp. 57-72. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum
152. Mellers BA, Weber EU, Ordóñez LD, Cooke ADJ. 1995. Utility invariance despite labile preferences. See Busemeyer et al 1995, pp. 221-46
153. Mellers BA, Weiss R, Birnbaum MH. 1992b. Violations of dominance in pricing judgments. J. Risk Uncertain. 5:73-90
154. Miyamoto JM. 1988. Generic utility theory: measurement foundations and applications in multiattribute utility theory. J. Mark. Res. 54:174-205
155. Miyamoto JM. 1992. Generic analysis of utility models. In Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications, ed. W Edwards, pp. 73-108. Boston: Kluwer
156. Morawski P. 1989. Understanding Bayesian belief networks. AI Expert. 4:44-48
157. Nelson MW. 1996. Context and the inverse base rate effect. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 9: 23-40
158. Nowlis SM, Simonson I. 1997. Attribute-task compatibility as a determinant of consumer preference reversals. J Mark. Res. 34:205-18
159. Nygren TE, Isen AM, Taylor PJ, Dulin J. 1996. The influence of positive affect on the decision rule in risk situations: Focus on outcome (and especially avoidance of loss) rather than probability. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 66:59-72
160. Ordóñez LD, Mellers BA, Chang S, Roberts J. 1995. Are preference reversals reduced when made explicit? J Behav. Decis. Mak. 8:265-77
161. Paese PW, Bieser M, Tubbs ME. 1993. Framing effects and choice shifts in group decision making. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 56:149-65
162. Parducci A. 1995. Happiness, Pleasure, and Judgment: The Contextual Theory and Its Applications. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum
163. Payne JW, Bettman JR, Johnson EJ. 1992. Behavioral decision research: a constructive processing perspective. Annu Rev. Psychol 43:87-131
164. Pearl J. 1988. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference. San Mateo, CA: Morgan Kaufman
165. Pennington N, Hastie R. 1992. Explaining the evidence: tests of the story model for juror decision making. J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 62:189-206
166. Pennington N, Hastie R. 1993. Reasoning in explanation-based decision making. Cognition 49:123-63
167. Peters E, Slovic P. 1997. The role of affect and world views as orienting dispositions in the perception and acceptance of nuclear power. J. Appl. Soc. Psychol. 26:1427-53
168. Pfeifer PE. 1994. Are we overconfident in the belief that probability forecasters are overconfident? Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 58:203-13
169. Pitz GF, Sachs NJ. 1984. Judgment and decision: theory and application. Annu. Rev. Psychol. 35:139-63
170. Prelec D, Herrnstein RJ. 1991. In Strategy and Choice, ed. RJ Zeckhauser, pp. 319-40. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
171. Rapoport A, Wallsten TS. 1972. Individual decision behavior. Annu. Rev. Psychol. 23: 131-76
172. Ratcliff R. 1978. A theory of memory retrieval. Psychol Rev. 85:59-108
173. Redelmeier DA, Kahneman D. 1996. Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain 66(1):3-8
174. Richard R, van der Pligt J, de Vries N. 1996. Anticipated regret and time perspective: changing sexual risk-taking behavior. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 9:185-99
175. Ritov I. 1996. Probability of regret: anticipation of uncertainty resolution in choice. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 66: 228-36
176. Ritov I, Baron J. 1990. Reluctance to vaccinate: omission bias and ambiguity. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 3:263-77
177. Ritov I, Baron J. 1995. Outcome knowledge, regret, and omission bias. Org Behav. Ham. Decis. Process. 64:119-27
178. Ritov I, Baron J, Hershey JC. 1993. Framing effects in the evaluation of multiple risk reduction. J Risk Uncertain. 6:145-59
179. Roese NJ, Olson JM, eds. 1995. What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum
180. Russo JE, Kolzow KJ, 1994. Where is the fault in fault trees? J. Exp. Psychol.: Hum. Percept. Perform. 20:17-32
181. Schkade DA, Payne JW. 1994. How people respond to contingent valuation questions: a verbal protocol analysis of willingness to pay for an environmental regulation. J. Environ. Econ. 26:88-109
182. Schneider SL. 1992. Framing and conflict: aspiration level, contingency, the status quo, and current theories of risky choice. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem Cogn. 18:1040-57
183. Schneider SL. 1995. Item difficulty, discrimination, and the confidence-frequency effect in a categorical judgment task. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 61:148-67
184. Schoemaker PJH. 1993. Determinants of risk-taking: behavioral and economic views. J. Risk Uncertain. 6:49-73
185. Schweitzer M. 1995. Multiple reference points, framing, and the status quo bias in health care financing decisions. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis Process. 63:69-72
186. Shafer G. 1996. Probabilistic Expert Systems. Philadelphia, PA: SIAM
187. Shafir E, Simonson I, Tversky A. 1993. Reason-based choice. Cognition 49:11-36
188. Shapira Z. 1995. Risk Taking: A Managerial Perspective. New York: Russell Sage Found.
189. Shelley MK. 1994. Gain/loss asymmetry in risky intertemporal choice. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process 59:124-59
190. Simonson I. 1989. Choice based on reasons: the case of attraction and compromise effects. J. Consum Res. 16:158-74
191. Simonson I. 1992. The influence of anticipating regret and responsibility on purchase decisions. J. Consum. Res. 19:105-18
192. Simonson I, Nye P. 1992. The effect of accountability on susceptibility to decision errors. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 51:416-46
193. Simonson I, Staw BM. 1992. Deescalation strategies: a comparison of techniques for reducing commitment to losing courses of action. J. Appl. Psychol. 77:419-26
194. Simonson I, Tversky A. 1992. Choice in context: tradeoff contrast and extremeness aversion. J. Mark. Res. 29:281-95
195. Slovic P. 1972. From Shakespeare to Simon: speculations - and some evidence - about man's ability to process information. Res. Bull Ore. Res. Inst. 12:1-29
196. Slovic P. 1996. Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield. In Psychological Perspectives to Environment and Ethics in Management, ed. M Bazerman, D Messick, A Tenbrunsel, K Wade-Benzoni, pp. 277-313. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass
197. Slovic P, Fischhoff B, Lichtenstein S. 1977. Behavioral decision theory. Annu. Rev. Psychol 28:1-39
198. Slovic P, Flynn J, Mertz CW, Mullican L. 1993. Health Risk Perception in Canada. Rep. No 93-EHD-170. Ottawa: Dep. Natl. Health Welf.
199. Sniezek JA, Paese PW, Switzer FS. 1990. The effect of choosing on confidence in choice. Org Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 46: 264-82
200. Spranca M, Minsk E, Baron J. 1991. Omission and commission in judgment and choice. J. Exp Soc. Psychol. 27:76-105
201. Stevenson MK. 1992. The impact of temporal context and risk on the judged value of future outcomes. Org. Behav Hum. Decis. Process. 52:455-91
202. Stevenson MK. 1993. Decision making with long-term consequences: temporal discounting for single and multiple outcomes in the future. J. Exp Psychol. 122:3-22
203. Sullivan K, Kida T. 1995. The effect of multiple reference points and prior gains and losses on managers' risky decision making. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 64: 76-83
204. Sunstein CR. 1997. Which Risks First? Univ. Chicago Legal Forum. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press. In press
205. Tan H, Yates JF. 1995. Sunk cost effects: the influences of instruction and future return estimates. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 63:311-19
206. Tetlock PE. 1992. The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: toward a social contingency model. Adv. Exp. Soc. Psychol. 25:331-76
207. Tetlock PE, Boettger R. 1994. Accountability amplifies the status quo effect when change creates victims. J. Behav. Decis. Mak. 7:1-23
208. Tetlock PE, Kim JI. 1987. Accountability and judgment processes in a personality prediction task. J. Pers Soc. Psychol. 52: 700-9
209. Tetlock PE, Peterson RS, Lerner JS. 1996. Revising the value pluralism model: incorporating social content and context postulates. In The Psychology of Values, ed. C Seligman, JM Olson, MP Zanna, pp. 25-51. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum
210. Thaler R. 1993. Advances in Behavioral Fianance. New York: Russell Sage
211. Thaler RH, Tversky A, Kahneman D, Schwartz A. 1997. An experimental test of myopic loss aversion Q. J Econ. 112: 647-61
212. Tversky A, Fox CR. 1995. Weighing risk and uncertainty. Psychol. Rev. 102:269-83
213. Tversky A, Kahneman D. 1974. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185:1124-31
214. Tversky A, Kahneman D. 1981. The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science 211:453-58
215. Tversky A, Kahneman D. 1992. Advances m prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J Risk Uncertain. 5: 297-323
216. Tversky A, Koehler DJ. 1994. Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability. Psychol. Rev. 101:547-67
217. Tversky A, Sattath S, Slovic P. 1988. Contingent weighting in judgment and choice. Psychol. Rev 95:371-84
218. Tversky A, Shafir E. 1992a. Choice under conflict: the dynamics of deferred decision. Psychol. Sci. 3:358-61
219. Tversky A, Shafir E. 1992b. The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty. Psychol. Sci. 3:305-9
220. Tversky A, Simonson I. 1993. Context-dependent preferences. Manage. Sci. 39: 1179-89
221. van Schie ECM, van der Pligt J. 1995. Influencing risk preference in decision making: the effects of framing and salience. Org. Behav, Hum. Decis. Process. 63:264-75
222. Varey C, Kahneman D. 1992. Experiences extended across time: evaluation of moments and episodes, J. Behav. Decis Mak. 5: 169-85
223. von Nitzsch R, Weber M. 1993. The effect of attribute ranges on weights in multiattribute utility measurements Manage Sci. 39: 937-43
224. von Winterfeldt D, Chung N, Luce RD, Cho Y. 1997. Tests of consequence monotoncity in decision making under uncertainty. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn. 23: 406-26
225. von Winterfeldt D, Edwards W. 1986. Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
226. Wakker P, Tversky A. 1993. An axiomatization of cumulative prosect theory. J. Risk Uncertain. 7:147-56
227. Weber EU, Anderson CJ, Birnbaum MH. 1992. A theory of perceived risk and attractiveness. Org. Behav Hum. Decis. Process. 52:492-523
228. Weber EU, Böckenholt U, Hilton DJ, Wallace B. 1993. Determinants of diagnostic hypothesis generation: effects of information, base rates, and experience. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn. 19:1151-64
229. Weber EU, Milliman RA. 1997. Perceived risk attitudes, relating risk perception to risky choice. Manage. Sci 43:123-44
230. Weber M, Borcherding K. 1993. Behavioral influences on weight judgments in multiattribute decision making. Eur. J. Opin. Res. 67:1-12
231. Wedell DH. 1991. Distinguishing among models of contextually induced preference reversals. J. Exp Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn. 17:767-78
232. Wedell DH, Pettibone JC. 1996. Using judgments to understand decoy effects in choice. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 67:326-44
233. Wilson R, Crouch E. 1982. Risk/Benefit Analysis Cambridge, MA: Balllinger
234. Wright WF, Bower GH. 1992. Mood effects on subjective probability assessment. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 52:276-91
235. Wu G, Gonzales R. 1996. Curvature of the probability weighting function. Manage. Sci. 42:1676-90
236. Yates JF, ed. 1992. Risk-Taking Behavior. New York: Wiley
237. Yates JF, Stone ER. 1992. The risk construct. In Risk-Taking Behavior, ed. JF Yates, pp. 1-25. New York: Wiley
238. Zeelenberg M, Beattie J, van der Pligt J, de Vries NK. 1996. Consequences of regret aversion: effects of expected feedback on risky decision making. Org. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 65:148-58