Trade and American cities: Who has the comparative advantage?

Economic Development Quarterly

Volumn 11, Issue 1, 1997, Pages 67-87

  Noponen, Helzi ^a   Markusen, Ann ^c   Driessen, Karl ^b  

^a University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill   (United States)

^b INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND   (United States)

^c NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0031542311     PISSN: 08912424     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/089124249701100106     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Scott Campbell, "Increasing Trade, Declining Port Cities: Port Containerization and the Regional Diffusion of Economic Benefits," in Trading Industries, Trading Regions, ed. Helzi Noponen, Julie Graham, and Ann Markusen (New York: Guilford Press, 1993), pp. 212-55.
2. For reviews of the literature on shift-share analysis and its strengths and weaknesses, see John Dawson, Shift-Share Analysis: A Bibliographic Review of Technique and Applications, Public Administration Series, P-949 (Monticello, IL: Vance Bibliographies, 1982); and Harry W. Richardson, "The State of Regional Economics: A Survey Article," International Regional Science Review 3, no. 1 (1978): 1-48.
3. For reviews of the literature on shift-share analysis and its strengths and weaknesses, see John Dawson, Shift-Share Analysis: A Bibliographic Review of Technique and Applications, Public Administration Series, P-949 (Monticello, IL: Vance Bibliographies, 1982); and Harry W. Richardson, "The State of Regional Economics: A Survey Article," International Regional Science Review 3, no. 1 (1978): 1-48.
4. The conspicuous absence of a trade dimension in shift-share applications, especially with respect to possible trade policy effects on regional growth performance, has been noted in H. Tervo and P. Okko, "A Note on Shift-Share Analysis as a Method of Estimating the Employment Effects of Regional Economic Policy," Journal of Regional Science 23, no. 1 (1983): 115-21. Three recent articles have made some headway in this area. Henderson, McGregor, and McNicoll derive a technique far taking account of changing import coefficients in the calculation of employment multipliers based on input-output data. They find that changes in import coefficients over time accounted for more than 25% of the change in employment generation potential in 5 of 12 major sectors in Scotland from 1973 to 1979. See David Henderson, Peter McGregor; and Iain McNicoll, "Measuring the Effects of Changing Structure on Employment Generation Potential," International Regional Science Review 12, no. 1 (1989): 57-65. Sihag and McDonongh place regions in an international context by elaborating an international shift-share formula with world growth and world industry mix effects, but they do not offer any empirical results. See Balbir Sihag and Carol McDonongh, "Shift-Share Analysis: The International Dimension," Growth and Change 20, no. 3 (1989): 80-8. Erickson estimated state export-related growth from unpublished Department of Commerce data and found that although state growth rates were correlated with export growth rates, a shift in the composition of output toward exports and away from domestic markets explained only a minute share of state variation in industrial growth and was not statistically significant. See Rodney Erickson, "Export Performance and State Industrial Growth," Economic Geography 65, no. 4 (October 1989): 280-92.
5. The conspicuous absence of a trade dimension in shift-share applications, especially with respect to possible trade policy effects on regional growth performance, has been noted in H. Tervo and P. Okko, "A Note on Shift-Share Analysis as a Method of Estimating the Employment Effects of Regional Economic Policy," Journal of Regional Science 23, no. 1 (1983): 115-21. Three recent articles have made some headway in this area. Henderson, McGregor, and McNicoll derive a technique far taking account of changing import coefficients in the calculation of employment multipliers based on input-output data. They find that changes in import coefficients over time accounted for more than 25% of the change in employment generation potential in 5 of 12 major sectors in Scotland from 1973 to 1979. See David Henderson, Peter McGregor; and Iain McNicoll, "Measuring the Effects of Changing Structure on Employment Generation Potential," International Regional Science Review 12, no. 1 (1989): 57-65. Sihag and McDonongh place regions in an international context by elaborating an international shift-share formula with world growth and world industry mix effects, but they do not offer any empirical results. See Balbir Sihag and Carol McDonongh, "Shift-Share Analysis: The International Dimension," Growth and Change 20, no. 3 (1989): 80-8. Erickson estimated state export-related growth from unpublished Department of Commerce data and found that although state growth rates were correlated with export growth rates, a shift in the composition of output toward exports and away from domestic markets explained only a minute share of state variation in industrial growth and was not statistically significant. See Rodney Erickson, "Export Performance and State Industrial Growth," Economic Geography 65, no. 4 (October 1989): 280-92.
6. The conspicuous absence of a trade dimension in shift-share applications, especially with respect to possible trade policy effects on regional growth performance, has been noted in H. Tervo and P. Okko, "A Note on Shift-Share Analysis as a Method of Estimating the Employment Effects of Regional Economic Policy," Journal of Regional Science 23, no. 1 (1983): 115-21. Three recent articles have made some headway in this area. Henderson, McGregor, and McNicoll derive a technique far taking account of changing import coefficients in the calculation of employment multipliers based on input-output data. They find that changes in import coefficients over time accounted for more than 25% of the change in employment generation potential in 5 of 12 major sectors in Scotland from 1973 to 1979. See David Henderson, Peter McGregor; and Iain McNicoll, "Measuring the Effects of Changing Structure on Employment Generation Potential," International Regional Science Review 12, no. 1 (1989): 57-65. Sihag and McDonongh place regions in an international context by elaborating an international shift-share formula with world growth and world industry mix effects, but they do not offer any empirical results. See Balbir Sihag and Carol McDonongh, "Shift-Share Analysis: The International Dimension," Growth and Change 20, no. 3 (1989): 80-8. Erickson estimated state export-related growth from unpublished Department of Commerce data and found that although state growth rates were correlated with export growth rates, a shift in the composition of output toward exports and away from domestic markets explained only a minute share of state variation in industrial growth and was not statistically significant. See Rodney Erickson, "Export Performance and State Industrial Growth," Economic Geography 65, no. 4 (October 1989): 280-92.
7. The conspicuous absence of a trade dimension in shift-share applications, especially with respect to possible trade policy effects on regional growth performance, has been noted in H. Tervo and P. Okko, "A Note on Shift-Share Analysis as a Method of Estimating the Employment Effects of Regional Economic Policy," Journal of Regional Science 23, no. 1 (1983): 115-21. Three recent articles have made some headway in this area. Henderson, McGregor, and McNicoll derive a technique far taking account of changing import coefficients in the calculation of employment multipliers based on input-output data. They find that changes in import coefficients over time accounted for more than 25% of the change in employment generation potential in 5 of 12 major sectors in Scotland from 1973 to 1979. See David Henderson, Peter McGregor; and Iain McNicoll, "Measuring the Effects of Changing Structure on Employment Generation Potential," International Regional Science Review 12, no. 1 (1989): 57-65. Sihag and McDonongh place regions in an international context by elaborating an international shift-share formula with world growth and world industry mix effects, but they do not offer any empirical results. See Balbir Sihag and Carol McDonongh, "Shift-Share Analysis: The International Dimension," Growth and Change 20, no. 3 (1989): 80-8. Erickson estimated state export-related growth from unpublished Department of Commerce data and found that although state growth rates were correlated with export growth rates, a shift in the composition of output toward exports and away from domestic markets explained only a minute share of state variation in industrial growth and was not statistically significant. See Rodney Erickson, "Export Performance and State Industrial Growth," Economic Geography 65, no. 4 (October 1989): 280-92.
8. Elsewhere, we explain the derivation of the method, apply it to the nine Census regions, and address a number of debates in the shift-share literature, including the superiority of dynamic versus static shift-share computation, the stability of the components over time, and the sensitivity of the technique to periodization. See Ann Markusen, Helzi Noponen, and Karl Driessen, "International Trade, Productivity and Regional Job Growth: A Shift-Share Interpretation," International Review of Regional Science 14, no. 1 (1991): 15-39.
9. r). It would be preferable to allocate this labor productivity growth factor across the previous three market components (i.e., export, import, and domestic demand), but we did not have the data to do so.
10. An exhaustive study by the U.S. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment documents the difficulties in measuring and gathering data on international trade in services. See Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Trade in Services, Exports and Foreign Revenues: Special Report OTA-ITE-316 (Washington, DC: D.S. Government Printing Office, September 1986). At the regional level, surveys have been done tracing the exports of services from metropolitan and substate regions to the rest of the country and world. See William Beyers, The Producer Services and Economic Development in the United States: The Last Decade, Final Report for U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration (Seattle: Department of Geography, University of Washington, 1989). Many scholars have emphasized the importance of internationally traded services in recent urban growth differentials. See in particular Saskia Sassen, The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1991); Michael Goldberg, Robert Helsey, and Maurice Levi, "The Location of International Financial Activity: An Interregional Analysis," Regional Studies 23, no. 1 (February 1989): 1-8; and Thierry Noyelle and Anna Dutka, Business Services in World Markets (New York: Ballinger, 1987).
11. An exhaustive study by the U.S. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment documents the difficulties in measuring and gathering data on international trade in services. See Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Trade in Services, Exports and Foreign Revenues: Special Report OTA-ITE-316 (Washington, DC: D.S. Government Printing Office, September 1986). At the regional level, surveys have been done tracing the exports of services from metropolitan and substate regions to the rest of the country and world. See William Beyers, The Producer Services and Economic Development in the United States: The Last Decade, Final Report for U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration (Seattle: Department of Geography, University of Washington, 1989). Many scholars have emphasized the importance of internationally traded services in recent urban growth differentials. See in particular Saskia Sassen, The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1991); Michael Goldberg, Robert Helsey, and Maurice Levi, "The Location of International Financial Activity: An Interregional Analysis," Regional Studies 23, no. 1 (February 1989): 1-8; and Thierry Noyelle and Anna Dutka, Business Services in World Markets (New York: Ballinger, 1987).
12. An exhaustive study by the U.S. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment documents the difficulties in measuring and gathering data on international trade in services. See Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Trade in Services, Exports and Foreign Revenues: Special Report OTA-ITE-316 (Washington, DC: D.S. Government Printing Office, September 1986). At the regional level, surveys have been done tracing the exports of services from metropolitan and substate regions to the rest of the country and world. See William Beyers, The Producer Services and Economic Development in the United States: The Last Decade, Final Report for U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration (Seattle: Department of Geography, University of Washington, 1989). Many scholars have emphasized the importance of internationally traded services in recent urban growth differentials. See in particular Saskia Sassen, The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1991); Michael Goldberg, Robert Helsey, and Maurice Levi, "The Location of International Financial Activity: An Interregional Analysis," Regional Studies 23, no. 1 (February 1989): 1-8; and Thierry Noyelle and Anna Dutka, Business Services in World Markets (New York: Ballinger, 1987).
13. An exhaustive study by the U.S. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment documents the difficulties in measuring and gathering data on international trade in services. See Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Trade in Services, Exports and Foreign Revenues: Special Report OTA-ITE-316 (Washington, DC: D.S. Government Printing Office, September 1986). At the regional level, surveys have been done tracing the exports of services from metropolitan and substate regions to the rest of the country and world. See William Beyers, The Producer Services and Economic Development in the United States: The Last Decade, Final Report for U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration (Seattle: Department of Geography, University of Washington, 1989). Many scholars have emphasized the importance of internationally traded services in recent urban growth differentials. See in particular Saskia Sassen, The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1991); Michael Goldberg, Robert Helsey, and Maurice Levi, "The Location of International Financial Activity: An Interregional Analysis," Regional Studies 23, no. 1 (February 1989): 1-8; and Thierry Noyelle and Anna Dutka, Business Services in World Markets (New York: Ballinger, 1987).
14. An exhaustive study by the U.S. Congress' Office of Technology Assessment documents the difficulties in measuring and gathering data on international trade in services. See Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress, Trade in Services, Exports and Foreign Revenues: Special Report OTA-ITE-316 (Washington, DC: D.S. Government Printing Office, September 1986). At the regional level, surveys have been done tracing the exports of services from metropolitan and substate regions to the rest of the country and world. See William Beyers, The Producer Services and Economic Development in the United States: The Last Decade, Final Report for U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration (Seattle: Department of Geography, University of Washington, 1989). Many scholars have emphasized the importance of internationally traded services in recent urban growth differentials. See in particular Saskia Sassen, The Global City: New York, London, Tokyo (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1991); Michael Goldberg, Robert Helsey, and Maurice Levi, "The Location of International Financial Activity: An Interregional Analysis," Regional Studies 23, no. 1 (February 1989): 1-8; and Thierry Noyelle and Anna Dutka, Business Services in World Markets (New York: Ballinger, 1987).
15. Richard Barff and Prentice Knight III, "Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis," Growth and Change 19, no. 2 (1988): 1-10.
16. Of course, slower productivity growth would negatively affect the competitive shift component, the elasticity of which is unknown.
17. The use of initial employment base size would give greater weight to cities with rising employment levels, whereas use of end-year employment size would give greater weight to cities with stagnant or declining employment.
18. The productivity component was not used, because it is highly and negatively correlated with the export subcomponent (-.91).
19. We used the SAS FASTCLUS procedure appropriate for our large data set with complete linkage based on Euclidean distances computed from the scaled industry mix subcomponents.
20. It would be interesting to probe farther across the clusters to see if metros grouped together exhibit similar industrial mixes, and if not, whether some other commonality - remoteness, compony towns, and so forth - might help explain their affinity. Sectoral specializations are not uniformly shared across all clusters, so that other supply-and demand-side factors must play a role. Our data set did not permit us to explore these aspects within the bounds of this research effort.
21. Markusen, Noponen, and Driessen, and Erickson come to the same conclusions. See Markusen, Noponen, and Driessen. "International Trade, Productivity and Regional Job Growth." In a study of state export and domestic industrial growth, Erickson found that although state growth rates were correlated with export growth rates, a shift in the composition of output toward exports and away from domestic markets explained only a minute share of state variation in industrial growth and was not statistically significant. He concludes that "manufacturing for the domestic market remains the overwhelmingly dominant driver of states' economic fortunes" (Erickson, "Export Performance and State Industrial Growth," p. 289).
22. Markusen, Noponen, and Driessen, and Erickson come to the same conclusions. See Markusen, Noponen, and Driessen. "International Trade, Productivity and Regional Job Growth." In a study of state export and domestic industrial growth, Erickson found that although state growth rates were correlated with export growth rates, a shift in the composition of output toward exports and away from domestic markets explained only a minute share of state variation in industrial growth and was not statistically significant. He concludes that "manufacturing for the domestic market remains the overwhelmingly dominant driver of states' economic fortunes" (Erickson, "Export Performance and State Industrial Growth," p. 289).
23. See Douglas C. North, The Economic Growth of the United States, 1790-1860 (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1961); and Ann Markusen, Regions: The Economics and Political of Territory (Totowa, NJ: Rowman and Littlefield, 1987).
24. See Douglas C. North, The Economic Growth of the United States, 1790-1860 (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1961); and Ann Markusen, Regions: The Economics and Political of Territory (Totowa, NJ: Rowman and Littlefield, 1987).
25. Candace Howes and Ann Markusen, "Trade, Industry and Economic Development," in Trading Industries, Trading Regions, ed. Helzi Noponen, Julie Graham, and Ann Markusen (New York: Guilford Press, 1993), pp. 1-44.
26. A number of studies have suggested that growth in international trade has favored coastal cities. Several scholars have emphasized the increasing prominence of certain global cities - New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami - as a counterpart of heightened trade due to their business service and finance roles. See Sassen, The Global City; Susan Fainstein, "The Changing World Economy and Urban Restructuring," in Leadership and Urban Regeneration, ed. Dennis Judd and Michael Parkinson (Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990); David Vogel, "The Future of New York City as a Global and National Financial Center" (Paper presented to the Metropolitan Dominance Working Group, Social Science Research Council, Committee on New York City, May 1988); and John Friedmann and Goetz Wolff, "World City Formation: An Agenda for Research and Action," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 6, no. 3 (September 1982): 309-44. For at least one commodity line, steel, port cities have been shown to exhibit a faster growth rate in related shipping and wholesaling employment than interior cities as trade has increased. See Wendy Patton and Ann Markusen, "The Perils of Overstating Service Sector Growth Potential: A Study of Linkages in Distributive Services," Economic Development Quarterly 5, no. 3 (1991): 197-212. The link between trade and port-city growth is also suggested by the relative growth in the volume of trade handled by West Coast cities, as Asia has surpassed Europe as the largest bloc trading with the United States. In 1962, when Asian trade was still modest, Atlantic Coast ports handled 61% of all cargo value coming in and out of the country. By 1987, these ports' share had dropped to 40%, whereas Gulf Coast ports dropped from 20% to 13%, and Great Lakes ports from 6% to 1.3%. Reflecting the rise of Asian trade, the Pacific Coast ports increased their share from 13.2% in 1962 to 46.4% in 1987. See Campbell, "Increasing Trade, Declining Port Cities," p. 14.
27. A number of studies have suggested that growth in international trade has favored coastal cities. Several scholars have emphasized the increasing prominence of certain global cities - New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami - as a counterpart of heightened trade due to their business service and finance roles. See Sassen, The Global City; Susan Fainstein, "The Changing World Economy and Urban Restructuring," in Leadership and Urban Regeneration, ed. Dennis Judd and Michael Parkinson (Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990); David Vogel, "The Future of New York City as a Global and National Financial Center" (Paper presented to the Metropolitan Dominance Working Group, Social Science Research Council, Committee on New York City, May 1988); and John Friedmann and Goetz Wolff, "World City Formation: An Agenda for Research and Action," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 6, no. 3 (September 1982): 309-44. For at least one commodity line, steel, port cities have been shown to exhibit a faster growth rate in related shipping and wholesaling employment than interior cities as trade has increased. See Wendy Patton and Ann Markusen, "The Perils of Overstating Service Sector Growth Potential: A Study of Linkages in Distributive Services," Economic Development Quarterly 5, no. 3 (1991): 197-212. The link between trade and port-city growth is also suggested by the relative growth in the volume of trade handled by West Coast cities, as Asia has surpassed Europe as the largest bloc trading with the United States. In 1962, when Asian trade was still modest, Atlantic Coast ports handled 61% of all cargo value coming in and out of the country. By 1987, these ports' share had dropped to 40%, whereas Gulf Coast ports dropped from 20% to 13%, and Great Lakes ports from 6% to 1.3%. Reflecting the rise of Asian trade, the Pacific Coast ports increased their share from 13.2% in 1962 to 46.4% in 1987. See Campbell, "Increasing Trade, Declining Port Cities," p. 14.
28. A number of studies have suggested that growth in international trade has favored coastal cities. Several scholars have emphasized the increasing prominence of certain global cities - New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami - as a counterpart of heightened trade due to their business service and finance roles. See Sassen, The Global City; Susan Fainstein, "The Changing World Economy and Urban Restructuring," in Leadership and Urban Regeneration, ed. Dennis Judd and Michael Parkinson (Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990); David Vogel, "The Future of New York City as a Global and National Financial Center" (Paper presented to the Metropolitan Dominance Working Group, Social Science Research Council, Committee on New York City, May 1988); and John Friedmann and Goetz Wolff, "World City Formation: An Agenda for Research and Action," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 6, no. 3 (September 1982): 309-44. For at least one commodity line, steel, port cities have been shown to exhibit a faster growth rate in related shipping and wholesaling employment than interior cities as trade has increased. See Wendy Patton and Ann Markusen, "The Perils of Overstating Service Sector Growth Potential: A Study of Linkages in Distributive Services," Economic Development Quarterly 5, no. 3 (1991): 197-212. The link between trade and port-city growth is also suggested by the relative growth in the volume of trade handled by West Coast cities, as Asia has surpassed Europe as the largest bloc trading with the United States. In 1962, when Asian trade was still modest, Atlantic Coast ports handled 61% of all cargo value coming in and out of the country. By 1987, these ports' share had dropped to 40%, whereas Gulf Coast ports dropped from 20% to 13%, and Great Lakes ports from 6% to 1.3%. Reflecting the rise of Asian trade, the Pacific Coast ports increased their share from 13.2% in 1962 to 46.4% in 1987. See Campbell, "Increasing Trade, Declining Port Cities," p. 14.
29. A number of studies have suggested that growth in international trade has favored coastal cities. Several scholars have emphasized the increasing prominence of certain global cities - New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami - as a counterpart of heightened trade due to their business service and finance roles. See Sassen, The Global City; Susan Fainstein, "The Changing World Economy and Urban Restructuring," in Leadership and Urban Regeneration, ed. Dennis Judd and Michael Parkinson (Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990); David Vogel, "The Future of New York City as a Global and National Financial Center" (Paper presented to the Metropolitan Dominance Working Group, Social Science Research Council, Committee on New York City, May 1988); and John Friedmann and Goetz Wolff, "World City Formation: An Agenda for Research and Action," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 6, no. 3 (September 1982): 309-44. For at least one commodity line, steel, port cities have been shown to exhibit a faster growth rate in related shipping and wholesaling employment than interior cities as trade has increased. See Wendy Patton and Ann Markusen, "The Perils of Overstating Service Sector Growth Potential: A Study of Linkages in Distributive Services," Economic Development Quarterly 5, no. 3 (1991): 197-212. The link between trade and port-city growth is also suggested by the relative growth in the volume of trade handled by West Coast cities, as Asia has surpassed Europe as the largest bloc trading with the United States. In 1962, when Asian trade was still modest, Atlantic Coast ports handled 61% of all cargo value coming in and out of the country. By 1987, these ports' share had dropped to 40%, whereas Gulf Coast ports dropped from 20% to 13%, and Great Lakes ports from 6% to 1.3%. Reflecting the rise of Asian trade, the Pacific Coast ports increased their share from 13.2% in 1962 to 46.4% in 1987. See Campbell, "Increasing Trade, Declining Port Cities," p. 14.
30. A number of studies have suggested that growth in international trade has favored coastal cities. Several scholars have emphasized the increasing prominence of certain global cities - New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami - as a counterpart of heightened trade due to their business service and finance roles. See Sassen, The Global City; Susan Fainstein, "The Changing World Economy and Urban Restructuring," in Leadership and Urban Regeneration, ed. Dennis Judd and Michael Parkinson (Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990); David Vogel, "The Future of New York City as a Global and National Financial Center" (Paper presented to the Metropolitan Dominance Working Group, Social Science Research Council, Committee on New York City, May 1988); and John Friedmann and Goetz Wolff, "World City Formation: An Agenda for Research and Action," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 6, no. 3 (September 1982): 309-44. For at least one commodity line, steel, port cities have been shown to exhibit a faster growth rate in related shipping and wholesaling employment than interior cities as trade has increased. See Wendy Patton and Ann Markusen, "The Perils of Overstating Service Sector Growth Potential: A Study of Linkages in Distributive Services," Economic Development Quarterly 5, no. 3 (1991): 197-212. The link between trade and port-city growth is also suggested by the relative growth in the volume of trade handled by West Coast cities, as Asia has surpassed Europe as the largest bloc trading with the United States. In 1962, when Asian trade was still modest, Atlantic Coast ports handled 61% of all cargo value coming in and out of the country. By 1987, these ports' share had dropped to 40%, whereas Gulf Coast ports dropped from 20% to 13%, and Great Lakes ports from 6% to 1.3%. Reflecting the rise of Asian trade, the Pacific Coast ports increased their share from 13.2% in 1962 to 46.4% in 1987. See Campbell, "Increasing Trade, Declining Port Cities," p. 14.
31. A number of studies have suggested that growth in international trade has favored coastal cities. Several scholars have emphasized the increasing prominence of certain global cities - New York, Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami - as a counterpart of heightened trade due to their business service and finance roles. See Sassen, The Global City; Susan Fainstein, "The Changing World Economy and Urban Restructuring," in Leadership and Urban Regeneration, ed. Dennis Judd and Michael Parkinson (Newbury Park, CA: Sage, 1990); David Vogel, "The Future of New York City as a Global and National Financial Center" (Paper presented to the Metropolitan Dominance Working Group, Social Science Research Council, Committee on New York City, May 1988); and John Friedmann and Goetz Wolff, "World City Formation: An Agenda for Research and Action," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 6, no. 3 (September 1982): 309-44. For at least one commodity line, steel, port cities have been shown to exhibit a faster growth rate in related shipping and wholesaling employment than interior cities as trade has increased. See Wendy Patton and Ann Markusen, "The Perils of Overstating Service Sector Growth Potential: A Study of Linkages in Distributive Services," Economic Development Quarterly 5, no. 3 (1991): 197-212. The link between trade and port-city growth is also suggested by the relative growth in the volume of trade handled by West Coast cities, as Asia has surpassed Europe as the largest bloc trading with the United States. In 1962, when Asian trade was still modest, Atlantic Coast ports handled 61% of all cargo value coming in and out of the country. By 1987, these ports' share had dropped to 40%, whereas Gulf Coast ports dropped from 20% to 13%, and Great Lakes ports from 6% to 1.3%. Reflecting the rise of Asian trade, the Pacific Coast ports increased their share from 13.2% in 1962 to 46.4% in 1987. See Campbell, "Increasing Trade, Declining Port Cities," p. 14.
32. Campbell, "Increasing Trade, Declining Port Cities," p. 14.
33. Matthew Drennan, Modeling Metropolitan Economies for Forecasting and Policy Analysis (New York: New York University Press, 1985), p. 89. With containerization, a ship can be loaded or unloaded in 20% of the time formerly required, with great reduction in breakage and pilferage. Fewer workers are required, since a port worker can move 600 tons of freight per week with the new system versus 32 tons moved formerly. See Matthew Drennan, "Local Economy and Local Revenues," in Setting Municipal Priorities, 1988, ed. Charles Brecher and Raymond Horton (New York: New York University Press, 1987).
34. Matthew Drennan, Modeling Metropolitan Economies for Forecasting and Policy Analysis (New York: New York University Press, 1985), p. 89. With containerization, a ship can be loaded or unloaded in 20% of the time formerly required, with great reduction in breakage and pilferage. Fewer workers are required, since a port worker can move 600 tons of freight per week with the new system versus 32 tons moved formerly. See Matthew Drennan, "Local Economy and Local Revenues," in Setting Municipal Priorities, 1988, ed. Charles Brecher and Raymond Horton (New York: New York University Press, 1987).
35. The three industrial structure components - domestic demand, export demand, and import competition - produced either marginally significant or insignificant differences between the two sets of cities. As one might expect, interior cities' employment growth due to domestic demand was imputed to be much higher - on average, 2.4%, compared with negative 0.3% for port cities - but the difference was not significant. Port cities were imputed to have smaller-than-average job losses from the rise in import activity, compared with somewhat greater-than-average losses for interior cities, but again the result was not significant Differences in residual or "competitive shift" growth were large and significant: mean positive growth of 4.4% in nonport cities, compared with port cities' losses of 5.6%.
36. We repeated the test for a smaller grouping of port cities, eliminating the Great Lakes ports on the presumption that their interior placement might be expected to shield them from Asian and European trade growth. Eliminating the four Great Lakes ports from the port-city group did reduce the differences in means and significance thereof between the two groups. In other words, the Great Lakes ports did more poorly in the period than did other coastal cities and appear to be responsible for much of the difference between port versus nonport cities' performance.
37. Zech, for instance, models only the export side of trade, and thus all his conclusions are confined to export promotion activities. See Charles Zech, "Sub-National Foreign Export Development and Its Impact on Productivity," Growth and Change 17, no. 3 (1986): 1-12.
38. Ibid. p. 1.
39. Ann Markusen, Peter Hall, Scott Campbell, and Sabina Deitrick, The Rise of the Gunbelt (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991), p. 72.
40. Zech, "Sub-National Foreign Export Development and Its Impact on Productivity."
41. Most scholars working with variants of shift-share analysis have found this to be true in recent years. See, for instance, Edward N. Coulson, "The Sources of Sectoral Fluctuations in Metropolitan Areas," Journal of Urban Economics 33, no. 1 (1993): 76-94, who concludes that "idiosyncratic" sources explain most variation in growth rates - not national, industry, or even metropolitan components.