The prediction of the performance of a nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 12, Issue 1, 1997, Pages 24-30

  Aberson, Sim D ^a,b  

^a NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER   (United States)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BAROTROPIC MODEL; HURRICANE; STORM TRACK; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0031453428     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0024:TPOTPO>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (15)

1. Aberson, S. D., and M. DeMaria, 1994: Verification of a nested barotropic hurricane track forecast model (VICBAR). Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 2804-2815.
2. Allen, G., and J. F. Le Marshall, 1994: An evaluation of neural networks and discriminant analysis methods for application in operational rain forecasting. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 43, 17-28.
3. Epstein, E. S., 1969: Stochastic dynamic prediction. Tellus, 21, 739-759.
4. Hoffman, R. N., and E. Kalnay, 1983: Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting. Tellus, 35A, 100-118.
5. Kistler, R. E., E. Kalnay, and M. S. Tracton, 1988: Forecast agreement, persistence, and forecast skill. Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Baltimore, MD, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 641-646.
6. Lachenbruch. P. A., 1975: Discriminant Analysis. Hafner Press, 128 pp.
7. Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
8. Marks, D. G., 1992: The beta and advection model for hurricane track forecasting. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NMC 70, 89 pp. [Available from National Center for Environmental Prediction, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304.]
9. McAdie, C. J., 1991: A comparison of tropical cyclone track forecasts produced by NHC90 and an alternate version (NHC90A) during the 1990 hurricane season. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 290-294.
10. Neumann, C. J., M. B. Lawrence, and E. L. Caso, 1977: Monte Carlo significance testing as applied to statistical tropical cyclone prediction models. J. Appl. Meteor., 16, 1165-1174.
11. Palmer, T. N., and S. Tibaldi, 1986: Forecast skill and predictability. ECMWF Tech. Memo. 139. [Available from ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom.]
12. _, and _, 1988: On the prediction of forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 2453-2480.
13. Panofsky, H. A., and G. W. Brier, 1958: Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology. The Pennsylvania State University, 224 pp.
14. Sheets, R. C., 1990: The National Hurricane Center - Past, present, and future. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 185-232.
15. Velden, C., 1993: The relationship between tropical cyclone motion, intensity, and the vertical extent of the environmental steering layer in the Atlantic basin. Extended Abstracts, 20th Conf. Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Antonio TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 31-34.