Predictability of SST forced climate signals in two atmospheric general circulation models

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 13, Issue 6, 1997, Pages 391-415

  Liang, X Z ^a   Sperber, K R ^b   Wang, W C ^a   Samel, A N ^a  

^a STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^b LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR/SEA INTERACTION; ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE; ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSES; CLIMATE SIGNAL; GCM; PREDICTABILITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SST ANOMALIES;

EID: 0031450898     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s003820050173     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Angell JK, Korshover J (1983) Global temperature variations in the troposphere and stratosphere, 1958-1982. Mon Weather Rev 111:901-921
2. Barnett TP (1985) Three-dimensional structure of low-frequency pressure variations in the tropical atmosphere. J Atmos Sci 42:2798-2803
3. Barnett TP, Latif M, Eirk E, Roeckner E (1991) On ENSO physics. J Clim 4:487-515
4. Barnett TP, Latif M, Graham N, Flügel M, Pazan S, White W (1993) ENSO and ENSO-related predictability, Part I: prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 8: 1545-1566
5. Barnett TP, Bengtsson L, Arpe K, Flügel M, Graham N, Latif M, Ritchie J, Roeckner E, Schlese U, Schulzweida U, Tyree M (1994) Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies. Tellus 46A: 381-397
6. Barnston AG, van den Dool HM, Zebiak SE, Barnett TP, Ji M, Rodenhuis DR, Cane MA, Leetmaa A, Graham NE, Ropelewski CR, Kousky VE, O'Lenic EA, Livezey RE (1994) Long-lead seasonal forecasts - Where do we stand? Bull Am Meterol Soc 75:2097-2114
7. Bengtsson L, Schlese U, Roeckner E, Latif M, Barnett TP, Graham N (1993) A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting. Science 261:1026-1029
8. Bjerknes J (1969) Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 97:163-172
9. Boer GJ, Arpe K, Blackburn M, D qu M, Gates WL, Hart TL, le Treut H, Roeckner E, Sheinin DA, Simmonds I, Smith RNB, Tokioka T, Wetherald RT, Williamson D (1992) Some results from an intercomparison of the climates simulated by 14 atmospheric general circulation models. J Geophys Res 97: 12771-12786
10. Chervin RM (1986) Interannual variability and seasonal climate predictability. J Atmos Sci 43:233-251
11. de Silva AM, Lindzen RS (1993) On the establishment of stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J Atmos Sci 50:43-61
12. Fennessy MJ, Shukla J (1991) Comparison of the impact of the 1982/83 and 1986/87 Pacific SST anomalies on time-mean predictions of atmospheric circulation. J Clim 4:407-423
13. Gates WL (1992) AMIP: The Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 73:1962-1970
14. Geisler JE, Blackmon ML, Bates GT, Munoz S (1985) Sensitivity of January climate response to the magnitude and position of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J Atmos Sci 42:1037-1049
15. Graham NE, Barnett TP (1995) ENSO and ENSO-related predictability. Part II: Northern Hemisphere 700-mb height prediction based on a hybrid coupled ENSO model. J Clim 8:544-549
16. Graham NE, Barnett TP, Wilde R, Ponater M, Schubert S (1994) On the roles of tropical and midlatitude SSTs in forcing interannual to interdecadal variability in the winter Northern Hemisphere circulation. J Clim 7:1416-1441
17. Gruber A, Krueger AF (1984) The status of the NOAA outgoing longwave radiation data set. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 65:958-962
18. Gutzler DS (1996) Low-frequency ocean-atmosphere variability across the tropical western Pacific. J Atmos Sci 53:2773-2785
19. Harzallah A, Sadourny R (1994) Internal versus SST-forced atmospheric variability as simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model. J Clim 8:474-495
20. Hoerling MP, Ting M (1994) Organization of extratropical transients during E1 Niño. J Clim 7: 745-766
21. Horel JD, Wallace JM (1981) Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 109:813-829
22. Ji M, Kumar A, Leetmaa A (1994) An experimental coupled forecast system at the National Meteorological Center: some early results. Tellus 46A:398-418
23. Kiladis GN, Meehl GA, Weickmann KM (1994) Large-scale circulation associated with westerly wind bursts and deep convection over the western equatorial Pacific. J Geophys Res 99: 18527-18544
24. Kumar A, Hoerling M, Ji M, Leetmaa A, Sardeshmukh P (1996) Assessing a GCM's suitability for making seasonal predictions. J Clim 9:115-129
25. Latif M, Sterl A, Maier-Reimer E, Junge MM (1993) Structure and predictability of the E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. J Clim 6:700-708
26. Lau NC (1985) Modeling the seasonal dependence of the atmospheric response to observed E1 Niños in 1962-76. Mon Weather Rev 113:1970-1996
27. Lau NC, Nath MJ (1994) A modeling study of the relative roles of tropical and extratropical SST anomalies in the variability of the global atmosphere-ocean system. J Clim 7:1184-1207
28. Legates DR, Wilmott CJ (1990) Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation. Int J Climatol 10:111-128
29. Liang X-Z, Wang W-C (1995) A GCM study of the climatic effect of 1979-1992 ozone trend. In: Wang W-C, Isaksen ISA (eds) Atmospheric ozone as a climate gas, NATO ASI Series, pp 259-288
30. Liang X-Z, Wang W-C, Samel AN, Pollard D, Thompson SL (1995a) Systematic biases of SUNYA/NCAR AMIP simulations. In: Proc First Int AMIP Scientific Conference, WCRP-92, WMO/TD-No 732, pp 181-186
31. Liang X-Z, Wang W-C, Dudek MP (1995b) Interannual variability of regional climate and its change due to the greenhouse effect. Global Planet Change 10:217-238
32. Liang X-Z, Wang W-C, Dudek MP (1996) Northern hemispheric interannual teleconnection patterns and their changes due to the greenhouse effect. J Clim 9:465-479
33. Livezey RE, Chen WY (1983) Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon Weather Rev 111:46-59
34. Madden RA (1976) Estimates of the natural variability of time-averaged sea-level pressure. Mon Weather Rev 104:942-952
35. Madden RA, Julian PR (1994) Observations of the 40-50-day tropical oscillation-A review. Mon Weather Rev 122:814-837
36. Meehl GA, Albrecht BA (1991) Response of a GCM with a hybrid convection scheme to a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly. J Clim 4:672-688
37. Meehl GA, Kiladis GN, Weickmann KM, Wheeler M, Gutzler DS, Compo GP (1996) Modulation of equatorial subseasonal convective episodes by tropical-extratropical interaction in the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. J Geophys Res 101: 15033-15049
38. Miyakoda K, Rosati A, Gudgel R (1993) Toward the GCM E1 Niño simulation. In: Shukla (ed) Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations, NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental Change, vol 6, Springer, New York, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp 125-151
39. Morcrette J-J (1990) Impact of changes to the radiation transfer parametrizations plus cloud optical properties in the ECMWF model. Mon Weather Rev 118:847-873
40. Morcrett J-J (1991) Radiation and cloud radiative properties in the ECMWF operational weather forecast model. J Geophys Res 96:9121-9132
41. Palmer TN, Anderson DLT (1994) The prospects for seasonal forecasting - A review paper. QJR Meteorol Soc 120:755-793
42. Palmer TN, Mansfield DA (1986) A study of wintertime circulation anomalies during past E1 Niño events using a high resolution general circulation model. I: influence of model climatology. QJR Meteorol Soc 112:613-638
43. Pan Y-H, Oort AH (1983) Global climate variations connected with sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for the 1958-73 period. Mon Weather Rev 111:1244-1258
44. Philander SG (1990) El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, 289 pp
45. Phillips TJ (1994) A summary documentation of the AMIP models. PCMDI Rep 18, PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California, 343 pp
46. Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1982) Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Nino. Mon Weather Rev 110:354-384
47. Reynolds RW, Marsico DC (1993) An improved real-time global sea surface temperature analysis. J Clim 6:114-119
48. Sardeshmukh PD, Hoskins BJ (1988) The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized tropical divergence. J Atmos Sci 45:1228-1251
49. Simmons AJ, Burridge DM, Jarraud M, Girard C, Wergen W (1988) The ECMWF medium-range prediction models, development of the numerical formulations and impact of the increased resolution. Meerol Atmos Phys 40:28-60
50. Slingo JM, Sperber KR, Boyle JS, Ceron J-P, Dix M, Dugas B, Ebisuzaki W, Fyfe J, Gregory D, Gueremy J-F, Hack J, Harzallah A, Inness P, Kitoh A, Lau K-M, McAvaney B, Madden R, Matthews A, Palmer TN, Park C-K, Randall D, Renno N (1996) Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models. Clim Dyn 12:325-357
51. Shukla I, Gutzler DS (1983) Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere. Mon Weather Rev 111:1273-1279
52. Tiedtke M (1989) A comprehensive mass-flux scheme for cumulus parametrization in large-scale models. Mon Weather Rev 117:1779-1800
53. Tiedtke M, Heckley WA, Slingo JM (1988) Tropical forecasting at ECMWF: The influence of physical parametrization on the mean structure of forecasts and analyses. Q J R Meteorol Soc 114:639-664
54. Ting M, Sardeshmukh PD (1993) Factors determining the extratropical response to equatorial diabatic heating anomalies. J Atmos Sci 50:907-918
55. Thompson SL, Pollard D (1995) A global climate model (GENESIS) with a land-surface transfer scheme (LSX). Part I: present climate simulation. J Clim 8:732-761
56. Trenberth KE (1992) Global analyses from ECMWF and Atlas of 1000 to 10mb circulation statistics. NCAR Tech Note, NCAR/TN-373 + STR, 191 pp
57. Trenberth KE, Olson JG (1988) An evaluation and intercomparison of global analyses from the National Meteorological Center and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 69:1047-1057
58. van Loon H, Madden RA (1981) The Southern Oscillation. Part I: global associations with pressure and temperature in northern winter. Mon Weather Rev 109: 1150-1162
59. Wallace JM, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon Weather Rev 109:784-812
60. 3 into the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model. J Geophys Res 96:9097-9103
61. Wang W-C, Liang X-Z, Dudek MP, Pollard D, Thompson SL (1995) Atmospheric ozone as a climate gas. Atmos Res 37:247-256
62. Wu X, Yanai M (1994) Effects of vertical wind shear on the cumulus transport of momentum: observations and parametrization. J Atmos Sci 51:1640-1660
63. Zebiak S, Cane M (1987) A model E1 Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115:2262-2278
64. Zwiers FW (1987) A potential predictability study conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model. Mon Weather Rev 115:2957-2974