Regionalism, nationalism and Realpolitik in Central Asia

Europe - Asia Studies

Volumn 49, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 637-655

  Kubicek, Paul ^a  

^a KOÇ UNIVERSITY   (Turkey)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEVELOPING REGION; INTEGRATION CONSTRAINT; NATIONALISM; REGIONAL INTEGRATION; REGIONALISM;

ASIA, (CENTRAL);

EID: 0031435984     PISSN: 09668136     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09668139708412464     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Poem by Nusrat Karim in independence brochure of the Writers' Union of Uzbekistan, cited in Anthony Hyman, 'Moving out of Moscow's orbit: the outlook for Central Asia', International Affairs, 69, 2, 1993, p. 297.
2. Cooperation and integration, of course, are not equivalent. The former occurs when states adjust their behaviour in accordance with the actual or perceived preference of others. It does not require institutions, a balanced distribution of gains, or shared norms, and may be strictly functional and not sustainable over time. Integration occurs when states forego individual decision making and delegate powers to supra-national organs. A central role in integration theory has been played by neofunctionalism, which posits that rising levels of interdependence require functional cooperative efforts that eventually lead to political and legal spillover and the erosion of exclusive national identities. Shared norms and a commitment to international institutions underlie integration.
3. An excellent review can be found in Andrew Hurrell, 'Explaining the resurgence of regionalism in world politics', Review of International Studies, 21, 4, 1995, pp. 331-358.
4. The locus classicus remains Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA, 1979).
5. Joseph M. Grieco, 'The Maastricht Treaty, Economic and Monetary Union and the neo-realist research programme', Review of International Studies, 21, 1, 1995, pp. 21-40.
6. See Kadir Alimov, 'Uzbekistan's Foreign Policy: In Search of a Strategy', in Roald Sagdeev & Susan Eisenhower (eds), Central Asia: Conflict Resolution, and Change (Chevy Chase, MD, 1995); Henry Hale, 'Islam, State-building and Uzbekistan Foreign Policy', in Ali Banuazizi & Myron Weiner (eds), The New Geopolitics of Central Asia and Its Borderlands (Bloomington, 1994); and Rajan Menon, 'In the Shadow of the Bear: Security in Post-Soviet Central Asia', International Security, 20, 1, 1995, pp. 149-181. The only possible regional leader is Kazakhstan, but this state is severely constrained by a large Slav population (over 40% of the total) that will force its leaders to continue to look to the north before undertaking political initiatives.
7. See Kadir Alimov, 'Uzbekistan's Foreign Policy: In Search of a Strategy', in Roald Sagdeev & Susan Eisenhower (eds), Central Asia: Conflict Resolution, and Change (Chevy Chase, MD, 1995); Henry Hale, 'Islam, State-building and Uzbekistan Foreign Policy', in Ali Banuazizi & Myron Weiner (eds), The New Geopolitics of Central Asia and Its Borderlands (Bloomington, 1994); and Rajan Menon, 'In the Shadow of the Bear: Security in Post-Soviet Central Asia', International Security, 20, 1, 1995, pp. 149-181. The only possible regional leader is Kazakhstan, but this state is severely constrained by a large Slav population (over 40% of the total) that will force its leaders to continue to look to the north before undertaking political initiatives.
8. See Kadir Alimov, 'Uzbekistan's Foreign Policy: In Search of a Strategy', in Roald Sagdeev & Susan Eisenhower (eds), Central Asia: Conflict Resolution, and Change (Chevy Chase, MD, 1995); Henry Hale, 'Islam, State-building and Uzbekistan Foreign Policy', in Ali Banuazizi & Myron Weiner (eds), The New Geopolitics of Central Asia and Its Borderlands (Bloomington, 1994); and Rajan Menon, 'In the Shadow of the Bear: Security in Post-Soviet Central Asia', International Security, 20, 1, 1995, pp. 149-181. The only possible regional leader is Kazakhstan, but this state is severely constrained by a large Slav population (over 40% of the total) that will force its leaders to continue to look to the north before undertaking political initiatives.
9. Robert Keohane, After Hegemony (Princeton, 1984);
10. Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression 1929-1939 (Berkeley, 1973);
11. Timothy McKeown, 'Hegemonic Stability Theory and 19th Century Tariff Levels in Europe', International Organization, 37, 1, 1983, pp. 73-91.
12. The seminal source remains Robert Keohane & Joseph Nye, Power and Interdependence (Boston, 1977).
13. Data on Central Asian trade are difficult to calculate, owing to problems of determining true exchange rates and the prevalence of barter. Nonetheless, all reports indicate the predominance of Russia as a trade partner. Trade figures are regularly available in Economist Intelligence Unit reports as well Eurasian File, published by Turkish International Cooperation Agency.
14. The pioneering work in this field is that of Karl Deutsch, Political Community in the North Atlantic Area (Princeton, 1957). Also see Alexander Wendt, 'Collective Identity Formation and the International State', American Political Science Review, 88, 2, 1994, pp. 384-396.
15. The pioneering work in this field is that of Karl Deutsch, Political Community in the North Atlantic Area (Princeton, 1957). Also see Alexander Wendt, 'Collective Identity Formation and the International State', American Political Science Review, 88, 2, 1994, pp. 384-396.
16. Martha Brill Olcott, 'The Myth of Tsentral'naia Aziia', Orbis, 38, 4, 1994, p. 549.
17. In the words of Pulat of Uzbekistan's Birlik (Unity) Party, 'In the historical plan, these states are doomed to integrate in economic, social, cultural, and other spheres. This in turn will unavoidably lead to integration in the political sphere'. See Abdurakhim Pulat, 'Turkestan: po puti k integratsii', Tsentral'naya Aziya (Sweden), 1995, 1, p. 12.
18. The best known statement of this viewpoint is Samuel Huntington, 'Clash of Civilizations', Foreign Affairs, 72, 3, 1993, pp. 22-49.
19. This issue has been the topic of numerous works. One premier source is Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton, 1993).
20. The exception was commonly thought to be Askar Akaev of Kyrgyzstan. However, in late 1995-early 1996 he began to follow the course of other leaders in the region and acquired constitutional powers that may call into question the existence of democratic government that is able to check the power of the president.
21. Pulat, 1995. pp. 11-15.
22. See Stanley Hoffman, 'Obstinate or Obsolete?: The Fate of the Nation-State and the Case of Western Europe', Daedalus, 95, 4, 1966, pp. 862-915, and Ernst Haas, The Obsolescence of Regional Integration Theory (Berkeley, 1975).
23. See Stanley Hoffman, 'Obstinate or Obsolete?: The Fate of the Nation-State and the Case of Western Europe', Daedalus, 95, 4, 1966, pp. 862-915, and Ernst Haas, The Obsolescence of Regional Integration Theory (Berkeley, 1975).
24. Serik Primbetov, 'Integratsiya v tstentral'noi azii: problemy i perspektivy', Kazakhstan i mirovoe soobshchestvo, 3, 4, 1995, pp. 3-10.
25. Olzhas Suleimenov, 'Raspad sovetskogo soyuza-tragediya dlya nas', Tsentral'naya Aziya, 1995, 1, p. 10.
26. Boris Rumer, 'Disintegration and Reintegration in Central Asia: Dynamics and Prospects', in Boris Rumer (ed.), Central Asia in Transition: Dilemma of Political and Economic Development (London, 1996), p. 45.
27. See Sergei Lounev & Glerii Shirokov, 'Central Asia as a New Region in World Politics', and Alexander Akimov, 'Central Asia as a Region in the World Economy', in Sagdeev & Eisenhower (eds); and Nüket Kardam, 'Structural Changes in Multilateralism: Emerging Institutions in Central Asia', paper for International Symposium on Sources of Innovation in Multilateralism, United Nations University, Lausanne, 1994.
28. See Sergei Lounev & Glerii Shirokov, 'Central Asia as a New Region in World Politics', and Alexander Akimov, 'Central Asia as a Region in the World Economy', in Sagdeev & Eisenhower (eds); and Nüket Kardam, 'Structural Changes in Multilateralism: Emerging Institutions in Central Asia', paper for International Symposium on Sources of Innovation in Multilateralism, United Nations University, Lausanne, 1994.
29. See Sergei Lounev & Glerii Shirokov, 'Central Asia as a New Region in World Politics', and Alexander Akimov, 'Central Asia as a Region in the World Economy', in Sagdeev & Eisenhower (eds); and Nüket Kardam, 'Structural Changes in Multilateralism: Emerging Institutions in Central Asia', paper for International Symposium on Sources of Innovation in Multilateralism, United Nations University, Lausanne, 1994.
30. Reliable data for recent years are difficult to find, in large part because it is unclear how-exchange rates and barter should be calculated. However, there is a consensus that trade has in fact dropped. See Primbetov, 'Integratsiya' and Postsovetskaya Tsentral'naya Aziya: strategiya i prioritety ekonomicheskogo razvitiya (Almaty, 1994), pp. 262-263; and Rumer (ed.), p. 44.
31. Rubenstein notes that the ECO has no funds, no secretariat, no credible economic or political agenda, and is beset with divisions between its founding members. See Alvin Rubenstein, 'The Geopolitical Pull on Russia', Orbis, 38, 4, 1994, p. 580.
32. As evidence of how financial pressures inhibit maintenance of cooperation and political goodwill, Uzbekistan stopped gas deliveries to Kyrgyzstan in January 1996 because of the latter's failure to pay.
33. T. Buchuev & A. Brudnyi, Nezavisimyi Kazakhstan: tretii put' (Bishkek; Ilim. 1993).
34. Kasymzhomart Tokaev, 'Vneshnyaya politika: vremya razmyshlenii, vremya deistvii', Kazakhstan i mirovoe soobshchestvo, 1995, 2(3), pp. 3-9.
35. Akimov, 'Central Asia . . .'.
36. Anthony Smith, The Ethnic Origins of Nations (London, 1986), p. 147.
37. Donald Horowitz, 'How to Begin Thinking Comparatively About Soviet Ethnic Problems', in Alexander Motyl (ed.), Thinking Theoretically about Soviet Nationalities (New York, 1992), p. 10.
38. Data for 1990-94 show that net out-migration totalled 612 181 from Kazakhstan, 231 944 from Kyrgyzstan, 229 345 from Tajikistan, 394 063 from Uzbekistan and 45 791 from Turkmenistan. Ethnic Russians make up about two-thirds of these totals (Goskomstat, Rossiiskii Statisticheskii Ezhegodnik, 1995), pp. 42-43. By 1995 out-migration had significantly slowed, and some Central Asian officials told me that they suspected that net immigration was occurring.
39. Alexandre Bennigsen & Chantal Lemercier-Quelquejay, Islam in the Soviet Union (London, 1967).
40. This has been reported by many researchers using sociological surveys. See Yaacov Ro'i (ed.), Muslim Eurasia: Conflicting Legacies (London, 1995), p. 312.
41. Olcott, 'Emerging Political Elites', in Banuazizi & Weiner.
42. Ahmed Rashid, The Resurgence of Central Asia: Islam or Nationalism? (London, 1994) and Mehrdad Haghayeghi, 'Islam and Democratic Politics in Central Asia', World Affairs, 156, 4, 1994. pp. 186-198.
43. Ahmed Rashid, The Resurgence of Central Asia: Islam or Nationalism? (London, 1994) and Mehrdad Haghayeghi, 'Islam and Democratic Politics in Central Asia', World Affairs, 156, 4, 1994. pp. 186-198.
44. Komsomol'skaya pravda, 29 January 1993.
45. John Anderson, 'Authoritarian political development in Central Asia: the case of Turkmenistan', Central Asian Survey, 14, 4, 1995, pp. 509-527.
46. Turkmenskaya iskra, 8 August 1992, cited in Anderson, 'Authoritarian . . .', p. 523.
47. Narodnoe slovo, cited in Rumer (ed.), p. 51.
48. Menon, 'In the shadow . . .', especially pp. 158-160, and Irina Zviagelskaia, The Russian Policy Debate on Central Asia (London, 1995).
49. Stephen Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, 1987).
50. Hale, pp. 151-152.
51. Hale; Anderson.
52. For details of the pipeline politics of Central Asia, see Rosemarie Forsythe, The Politics of Oil in The Caucasus and Central Asia (Oxford, 1996).
53. The most extensive treatment is in Andrew Zagorsky & Michael Lucas, Rossiya pered evropeiskim vyzovom (Moscow, 1993). A review can be found in George Hudson, 'Russia's Search for Identity in the Post Cold War World', Mershon International Studies Review, 38, 1, 1994, pp. 235-240. See also Vyachseslav Belokrenitsky, 'Russia and Greater Central Asia', Asian Survey, 34, 12, 1994, pp. 1093-1108; Zviagelskaia; Menon.
54. The most extensive treatment is in Andrew Zagorsky & Michael Lucas, Rossiya pered evropeiskim vyzovom (Moscow, 1993). A review can be found in George Hudson, 'Russia's Search for Identity in the Post Cold War World', Mershon International Studies Review, 38, 1, 1994, pp. 235-240. See also Vyachseslav Belokrenitsky, 'Russia and Greater Central Asia', Asian Survey, 34, 12, 1994, pp. 1093-1108; Zviagelskaia; Menon.
55. The most extensive treatment is in Andrew Zagorsky & Michael Lucas, Rossiya pered evropeiskim vyzovom (Moscow, 1993). A review can be found in George Hudson, 'Russia's Search for Identity in the Post Cold War World', Mershon International Studies Review, 38, 1, 1994, pp. 235-240. See also Vyachseslav Belokrenitsky, 'Russia and Greater Central Asia', Asian Survey, 34, 12, 1994, pp. 1093-1108; Zviagelskaia; Menon.
56. Zviagelskaia, p. 5.
57. Andranik Migranyan, 'Rossiya i blizhnee zarubezhe', Nezavisimaya gazeta, 18 January 1994.
58. Vladimir Lukin, 'Rossiya v dal'nikh i blizhnikh krugakh', Segodnya, 3 September 1993.
59. Aleksandr Panerin, 'Evraziistvo: za i protiv, vchera i segodnya', Voprosy filosofii, 1995, 6, pp. 8, 11.
60. Martha Brill Olcott, 'Sovereignty and the "Near Abroad", Orbis, 39, 3, 1995, pp. 353-367.
61. Forsythe, p. 15.
62. Walt. However, since neorealism can predict both balancing and not balancing, one may be tempted to argue that neorealism appropriates every tenable position so that it becomes nonfalsifiable.
63. Randall Schweller, 'Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In', International Security, 19, 1, 1994, pp. 72-107.
64. This notion was originally put forward by Jack Synder, 'Organizing Political Space in the Former Soviet Union', paper prepared for the Carnegie Project on Political Order, Conflict and Nationalism in the Former Soviet Union, 1995.