An automated, observations-based system for short-term prediction of ceiling and visibility

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 12, Issue 1, 1997, Pages 31-43

  Vislocky, Robert L ^a   Michael Fritsch, J ^a  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CEILING; MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS; NESTED GRID MODEL; OBSERVATION BASED SYSTEM; VISIBILITY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0031435971     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0031:AAOBSF>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Dagostaro, V. J., J. P. Dallavalle, M. D. Miller, and V. C. Southall, 1995: AFOS-era verification of guidance and local aviation/publie weather forecasts - 21 (October 1993-March 1994). TDL Office Note 95-2, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, 52 pp. [Available from National Weather Service Office of Systems Development, Techniques Development Laboratory, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Springs, MD 20910.]
2. Dallavalle, J. P., and V. J. Dagostaro, 1995: The accuracy of ceiling and visibility forecasts produced by the National Weather Service. Preprints, Sixth Conf. on Aviation Weather Systems, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 213-218.
3. _, J. B. Bower, V. J. Dagostaro, D. T. Miller, and J. C. Su, 1992: Development of a new statistical weather forecast system. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Toronto, ON, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 201-206.
4. Glahn, H. R., and D. A. Lowry, 1972: The use of Model Output Statistics (MOS) in objective weather forecasting. J. Appl. Meteor., 11, 1203-1211.
5. _, and D. A. Unger, 1986: A Local AFOS MOS Program (LAMP) and its application to wind prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 1313-1329.
6. Hamill, T. M., and T. Nehrkorn, 1993: A short-term cloud forecast scheme using cross correlations. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 401-411.
7. Jacks, E., J. B. Bower, V. J. Dagostaro, J. P. Dallavalle, M. C. Erickson, and J. C. Su, 1990: New NGM-based MOS guidance for maximum/minimum temperature, probability of precipitation, cloud amount, and surface wind. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 128-138.
8. Jensenius, J. S., Jr., 1992: The use of grid-binary variables as predictors for statistical weather forecasting. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Toronto, ON, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 225-230.
9. Klein, W. H., and H. R. Glahn, 1974: Forecasting local weather by means of model output statistics. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 55, 1217-1227.
10. Miller, R. G., 1979: Conditional climatology given the local observation. Natl. Wea. Dig., 4, 2-15.
11. _, 1981: The generalized equivalent Markov (GEM) model. Preprints, Seventh Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 159-165.
12. _, 1987: Very short range weather forecasting using automated observations. Preprints, 10th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Edmonton, AB, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 26-31.
13. National Weather Service, 1981: The use of Model Output Statistics for predicting ceiling, visibility, cloud amount, and obstructions to vision. NWS Tech. Proc. Bull. 303, 12 pp. [Available from Mary Howell, 13205, W/OM21, SSMC #2, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Springs, MD 20910.]
14. _, 1988: LFM-based MOS cloud amount guidance for the contiguous United States. NWS Tech. Proc. Bull. 378, 7 pp. [Available from Mary Howell, 13205, W/OM21, SSMC #2, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Springs, MD 20910.]
15. _, 1990: NGM-based MOS guidance for maximum/minimum temperature, probability of precipitation, cloud amount, and surface wind. NWS Tech. Proc. Bull. 387, 15 pp. [Available from Mary Howell, 13205, W/OM21, SSMC #2, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Springs, MD 20910.]
16. _, 1995: NGM-based MOS ceiling height guidance for the contiguous United States. NWS Tech. Proc. Bull. 414, 14 pp. [Available from Mary Howell, 13205, W/OM21, SSMC #2, 1325 East-West Highway, Silver Springs, MD 20910.]
17. Neter, J., W. Wasserman, and M. H. Kutner, 1985: Applied Linear Statistical Models. Richard D. Irwin, 1127 pp.
18. Porter, C., 1995: Short-term high resolution forecasting of fog, cloud ceiling heights, and visibility with the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model. M.S. thesis, Dept. of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, 197 pp. [Available from Department of Meteorology, 503 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802.]
19. Vislocky, R. L., and J. M. Fritsch, 1995: Improved Model Output Statistics forecasts through model consensus. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1157-1163.
20. World Meteorological Organization, 1991: Lectures presented at the WMO training workshop on the interpretation of NWP products in terms of local weather phenomena and their verification. Preprints, Programme on Short- and Medium-Range Weather Prediction Research (PSMP), Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization.