Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects

Transport Policy

Volumn 4, Issue 3, 1997, Pages 141-146

  Skamris, Mette K ^a   Flyvbjerg, Bent ^a  

^a AALBORG UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

Author keywords

Before and after studies; Cost overruns; Large transport projects; Traffic

Indexed keywords

CONSTRUCTION COSTS; COST ESTIMATES; FORECASTING METHOD; INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT; TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE; TRANSPORT PLANNING;

DENMARK;

EID: 0031423446     PISSN: 0967070X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0967-070X(97)00007-3     Document Type: Article

References (15)

1. European Commission (1993) Growth, competitiveness, employment. The challenges and ways forward into the 21st century. White Paper, Brussels: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
2. Flyvbjerg, B., Bruzelius, N. and Rothengatter, W. (1995) Fehmarn Belt: issues of accountability, lessons and recommendations regarding appraisal of a fixed link across Fehmarn Belt. Report No. 95.03. The Danish Transport Council, Copenhagen, May 1995.
3. Fouracre, P. R., Allport, R. J. and Thomson, J. M. (1990) The performance and impact of rail mass transit in developing countries. TRRL Research Report 278. Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne.
4. Major Projects Association (1994) The Channel Tunnel. In Beyond 2000: A Source Book for Major projects. Oxford: Templeton College, 1994; The Economist, April 30 1994, 73.
5. Major Projects Association (1994) The Channel Tunnel. In Beyond 2000: A Source Book for Major projects. Oxford: Templeton College, 1994; The Economist, April 30 1994, 73.
6. National Audit Office (1988) Department of Transport, Scottish Department and Welsh Office: Road Planning. HMSO, London.
7. Pickrell, D. H. (1990) Urban rail transit projects: forecast versus actual ridership and cost. US Department of Transportation, Washington DC.
8. Pickrell, D. H. (1992) A desire named Streetcar: fantasy and fact in rail transit planning. Journal of the American Planning Association, 58(2), 158-176.
9. Rigsrevisionen (1994) Beretning til statsrevisoreme om udviklingen i de økonomiske overslag vedrørende Øresundsforbindelsen. RB 2001/94. Auditor General of Denmark, Copenhagen, November 1994).
10. Riksrevisionsverket (1994) Infrastrukturinvesteringar: En kostnadsjämförelse mellan plan och utfall i 15 större projekt inom Vägverket och Banverket. RRV 1994: 23. Auditor General of Sweden, Stockholm.
11. Skamris, M. K. (1994) Large transport projects: forecast versus actual traffic and costs. Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University.
12. The Economist, (1994) p. 73, 30 April.
13. The Economist, (1989) p. 73, 29 April.
14. Vickerman, R. (undated) The Channel tunnel - a progress report. The University of Kent, Canterbury.
15. Wachs, M. (1990) Ethics and advocacy in forecasting for public policy. Business and Professional Ethics Journal, 9(1&2).