Trend, decadal and interannual variability in annual rainfall of subequatorial and tropical North Africa (1900-1994)

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 17, Issue 8, 1997, Pages 785-805

  Moron, Vincent ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DE BOURGOGNE   (France)

^b CNR   (Italy)

Author keywords

Annual rainfall; Monte carlo singular spectrum analysis; Multi singular spectrum analysis; Quasi quinquennial oscillation; Quasi triennial oscillation; Sea surface temperature; Subequatorial and tropical North Africa; Teleconnections

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL RAINFALL; INTERANNUAL VARIATION; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PRECIPITATION; QUASI-QUINQUENNIAL OSCILLATION; QUASI-TRIENNIAL OSCILLATION; RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS; TELECONNECTION PATTERN; TREND;

AFRICA, (NORTH);

EID: 0031411501     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19970630)17:8<785::AID-JOC153>3.0.CO;2-I     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Allen, M. R. 1992. Interaction between atmosphere and oceans on time scales of weeks to years. PhD thesis, Clarendon Laboratory, Oxford, 203 pp.
2. Allen, M. R. and Smith, L. A. 1994. 'Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability', Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 883-886.
3. Allen, M. R. and Smith L.A. 1996. 'Monte Carlo SSA: detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of coloured noise', J. Climate, 9, in press.
4. Beltrando, G. and Camberlin, P. 1993. 'Interannual variability of rainfall in the eastern Horn of Africa and indicators of atmospheric circulation', Int. J. Climatol., 13, 533-546.
5. Bunting, A. H., Dennett, M. D., Elston, J. and Milford, J. R. 1976. 'Rainfall trends in the West-African Sahel', Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 102, 59-64.
6. Currie, R. G. 1994. 'Variance contribution of luni-solar and solar cycle signals in the St Lawrence and Nile river records', Int. J. Climatol., 14, 843-852.
7. Demarée, G. R. and Nicolis, C. 1990. 'Onset of Sahelian drought viewed as a fluctuation-induced transition', Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 116, 221-238.
8. Dettinger, M. D., Ghil, M., Strong, C. M., Weibel, W. and Yiou, P. 1995a. 'Software for singular spectrum analysis of noisy time series', Eos (Trans. Am. Geophys. Union), 76, 12,14,21.
9. Dettinger, M. D., Ghil, M. and Keppenne, C. L. 1995b. 'Interannual and interdecadal variability in United States surface-air temperatures 1910-1987', Climatic Change, 31, 35-66.
10. Elsner, J. B. and Tsonis, A. A. 1991. 'Do bidecadal oscillations exist in the global temperature record?', Nature, 353, 551-553.
11. Faure, H. and Gac, J. Y. 1981. 'Will the Sahelian drought end in 1985?', Nature, 291, 475-478.
12. Folland, C. K. and Parker, D. E. 1995. 'Correction of instrumental biases in historical sea surface temperature data', Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 319-368.
13. Folland, C. K., Palmer, T. N. and Parker, D. E. 1986. 'Sahel rainfall ''and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901-1985', Nature, 320, 602-607.
14. Folland, C. K., Owen, J., Ward, M. N. and Colman, A. 1991. 'Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the Sahel using empirical and dynamical methods', J. Forecasting, 10, 21-56.
15. Fontaine, B. and Bigot, S. 1993. 'West African rainfall deficits and sea surface temperatures', Int. J. Climatol., 13, 271-285.
16. Gac, J. Y. and Faure, H. 1987. 'Le "vrai" retour à l'humide au Sahel est-il pour demain?', C. R. Acad. Sci., 305 (II), 777-780.
17. Ghil, M. and Vautard, R. 1991. 'Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in global temperature time series', Nature, 350, 324-327.
18. Hameed, S., Sperber, K. R. and Meister, A. 1993. 'Teleconnections of the southern oscillation in the Tropical Atlantic sector in the OSU coupled upper Ocean - Atmosphere GCM', J. Climate, 6, 487-498.
19. Hastenrath, S. 1984. 'Interannual variability and annual cycle: mechanisms of circulation and climate in the tropical Atlantic sector', Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1097-1107.
20. Hastenrath, S. 1990. 'Decadal-scale changes of the circulation in the tropical Atlantic sector associated with Sahel drought', Int. J. Climatol., 10, 459-472.
21. Hastenrath, S. and Kaczmarczyk, E. B. 1981. 'On spectra and coherence of tropical climate anomalies', Tellus, 30A, 436-446.
22. Hastenrath, S., Nicklis, A. and Greischar, L. 1993. 'Atmospheric-hydrospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the western equatorial Indian Ocean', J. Geophys. Res., 98, 20219-20235.
23. Hulme, M. 1991. 'An intercomparison of model and observed global precipitation climatologies', Geophys. Res. Lett., 18, 1715-1718.
24. Hulme, M. 1992. 'Rainfall changes in Africa 1931-1960 to 1961-1990', Int. J. Climatol., 12, 685-699.
25. Hulme, M. 1994. 'Validation of large-scale precipitation fields in GCM', in Desbois, M. and Desalmand, F. (eds) NATO ASI Series Vol. I 26, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 389-405.
26. Janicot, S. 1992a. 'Spatiotemporal variability of West-African rainfall. Part I: regionalizations and typings', J. Climate, 5, 489-497.
27. Janicot, S. 1992b. 'Spatiotemporal variability of West African rainfall. Part II: associated surface and airmass characteristics', J. Climate, 5, 499-511.
28. Janowiak, J. E. 1988. 'An investigation of interannual rainfall variability in Africa', J. Climate, 1, 240-255.
29. Jiang, N., Neelin, D. and Ghil, M. 1995. 'Quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial variability in equatorial Pacific', Climate Dyn., 12, 101-112.
30. Kane, R. P. and Trivedi, N. B. 1986. 'Are droughts predictable', Climate Change, 8, 209-233.
31. Katz, R. W. and Glantz, M. H. 1986. 'Anatomy of a rainfall index', Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 764-771.
32. Lamb, P. J. 1978. 'Large-scale tropical Atlantic circulation patterns associated with sub-Saharan Africa weather anomalies', Tellus 30, 240-251.
33. Lamb, P. J., Hastenrath, S. and Peppler, R. A. 1986. 'Interannual variability in the tropical Atlantic', Nature, 322, 238-240.
34. Lough, J. M. 1986. 'Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and rainfall variations in Subsaharan Africa', Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 561-570.
35. Mehta, V. M. and Delworth, T. 1995. 'Decadal variability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean surface temperature in shipboard measurements and in global Ocean-Atmosphere model', J. Climate, 8, 172-190.
36. Moron, V. 1994. 'Guinean and Sahelian rainfall anomaly indices at annual and monthly time scales (1933-1990)', Int. J. Climatol., 14, 325-341.
37. Moron, V., Bigot, S. and Roucou, P. 1995. 'Rainfall variability in subequatorial America and Africa and relationships with the main SST modes (1951-1990)', Int. J. Climatol., 15, 1297-1322.
38. Nicholson, S. 1979, 'Revised rainfall series for the West African subtropics', Mon. Wea. Rev., 107, 620-623.
39. Nicholson, S. 1980. 'The nature of rainfall fluctuations in subtropical Africa', Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 473-487.
40. Nicholson, S. and Entekhabi, D. 1986. 'The quasi-periodic behavior of rainfall variability in Africa and its relationship to the Southern Oscillation', Arch. Meteorol. Geophys. Bio. Klimatol., 34A, 311-348.
41. Nicholson, S. and Palao, I.M. 1993. 'A re-evaluation of rainfall variability in the Sahel. Part I: characteristics of rainfall fluctuations', Int. J. Climatol., 13, 371-390.
42. Ogallo, L. J. 1979. 'Rainfall variability in Africa', Mon. Wea. Rev., 107, 1133-1139.
43. Ogallo, L. J. 1988. 'Relationship between seasonal rainfall in East Africa and the Southern Oscillation., J. Climatol., 8, 31-44.
44. Ogallo, L. J. 1989. "The spatial and temporal patterns of the East African seasonal rainfall derived from PCA', J. Climatol., 9, 145-168.
45. O'Lenic, E. A. and Livezey, R. E. 1988. 'Practical considerations in the use of rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) in diagnostic studies of upper-air fields', Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1682-1689.
46. Plaut, G. and Vautard, R. 1994. 'Spells of low-frequency oscillations and weather regimes in the Northern Hemisphere', J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 210-236.
47. Plaut, G., Ghil, M. and Vautard, R. 1995. 'Interannual and interdecadal variability in 335 years of Central England temperature', Science, 268, 710-713.
48. Richman, M. B. 1986. 'Rotation of principal components : a review', J. Climatol., 6, 293-336.
49. Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S. 1987. 'Global and regional scale precipitation associated with the El NiÑo Southern Oscillation', Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
50. Ropelewski, C. F. and Halpert, M. S. 1989. 'Precipitation patterns associated with the high index phase of the southern oscillation', J. Climate, 2, 268-284.
51. Rowell, D. P., Folland, C. K., Maskell, K. and Ward, N. 1995. 'Variability of summer rainfall over tropical North Africa (1906-1992): observations and modelling', Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 121, 669-704.
52. Seleshi, Y., Demaree, G. R. and Delleur, J. W. 1994. 'Sunspot numbers as a possible indicator of annual rainfall at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia', Int. J. Climatol., 14, 911-924.
53. Schikedanz, P. T. and Bowen, E. G. 1977. 'The computation of climatological power spectra', J. Appl. Meteorol., 16, 359-367.
54. Shinoda, M. and Kawamura, R. 1994. Tropical rainbelt, circulation and sea surface temperatures associated with the Sahelian rainfall trend', J. Meteorol. Soc. J., 72, 341-357.
55. Sperber, K. R. and Hameed, S. 1993. 'Phase locking of Nordeste precipitation with sea surface temperatures', Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 113-116.
56. Unal, Y. S. and Ghil, M. 1995. 'Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level', Climate Dyn., 11, 255-278.
57. Vautard, R. 1995. 'Patterns in time: SSA and MSSA', in Von Storch, H. and Navarra, A. (eds), Analysis of Climate Variability, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp. 259-278.
58. Vautard, R. and Ghil, M. 1989. 'Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics with application to paleoclimatic time series', Physica D 35, 395-424.
59. Vautard, R., Yiou, P. and Ghil, M. 1992. 'Singular-spectrum analysis: a toolkit for short, noisy chaotic signals', Physica D, 58, 95-126.
60. Ward, M. N. 1995. 'Analysing the boreal summer relationship between world-wide sea surface temperature and atmospheric variability', in Von Storch, H. and Navarra, A. (eds), Analysis of Climate Variability, Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp. 95-117.
61. Ward, M. N., Maskell, K., Folland, C. K., Rowell, D. P. and Washington, R. 1994. A Tropic-wide Oscillation of Boreal Summer Rainfall and Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature. CTRN 48, Meteorological Office, Bracknell.
62. Wood, C. A. and Lovett, R. R. 1974. 'Rainfall, drought and solar cycle', Nature, 251, 594-596.
63. Yiou, P., Ghil, M., Jouzel, J., Paillard, D. and Vautard, R. 1994. 'Nonlinear variability of the climatic system from singular and power spectra of Late Quaternary records', Climate Dyn., 8, 371-390.