Understanding multi-party choice: The 1995 duma election

Europe - Asia Studies

Volumn 49, Issue 5, 1997, Pages 799-823

  Rose, Richard ^a   Tikhomirov, Evgeny ^a   Mishler, William ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF STRATHCLYDE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DUMA ELECTION; ELECTION (1995); ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY; MULTIPARTY CHOICE;

RUSSIAN FEDERATION;

EID: 0031410692     PISSN: 09668136     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09668139708412474     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Jerome M. Gilison, 'Soviet Elections as a Measure of Dissent: the Missing One Percent', American Political Science Review, 62, 4, 1968, pp. 814-26; Rasma Karklins, 'Soviet Elections Revisited: Voter Abstention in Noncompetitive Voting', American Political Science Review, 80, 2, 1986, pp. 449-469; Georg Brunner, 'Elections in the Soviet Union', in Robert K. Furtak (ed.) Elections in Socialist States (New York, Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992), pp. 20-52.
2. Jerome M. Gilison, 'Soviet Elections as a Measure of Dissent: the Missing One Percent', American Political Science Review, 62, 4, 1968, pp. 814-26; Rasma Karklins, 'Soviet Elections Revisited: Voter Abstention in Noncompetitive Voting', American Political Science Review, 80, 2, 1986, pp. 449-469; Georg Brunner, 'Elections in the Soviet Union', in Robert K. Furtak (ed.) Elections in Socialist States (New York, Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992), pp. 20-52.
3. Jerome M. Gilison, 'Soviet Elections as a Measure of Dissent: the Missing One Percent', American Political Science Review, 62, 4, 1968, pp. 814-26; Rasma Karklins, 'Soviet Elections Revisited: Voter Abstention in Noncompetitive Voting', American Political Science Review, 80, 2, 1986, pp. 449-469; Georg Brunner, 'Elections in the Soviet Union', in Robert K. Furtak (ed.) Elections in Socialist States (New York, Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992), pp. 20-52.
4. Stephen White, 'Public Opinion and Political Science in Postcommunist Russia', European Journal of Political Research, 1995, 27, pp. 507-526.
5. Archie Brown & Jack Gray (eds), Political Culture and Political Change in Communist States (London, Macmillan, 2nd edn, 1979); Stephen White, Political Culture and Soviet Politics (London, Macmillan, 1979); Stephen Welch, 'Issues in the Study of Political Culture: The Example of Communist Party States', British Journal of Political Science, 17, 4, 1987, pp. 479-500; Jeffrey W. Hahn, 'Continuity and Change in Russian Political Culture', British Journal of Political Science, 21, 4, 1991, pp. 393-441.
6. Archie Brown & Jack Gray (eds), Political Culture and Political Change in Communist States (London, Macmillan, 2nd edn, 1979); Stephen White, Political Culture and Soviet Politics (London, Macmillan, 1979); Stephen Welch, 'Issues in the Study of Political Culture: The Example of Communist Party States', British Journal of Political Science, 17, 4, 1987, pp. 479-500; Jeffrey W. Hahn, 'Continuity and Change in Russian Political Culture', British Journal of Political Science, 21, 4, 1991, pp. 393-441.
7. Archie Brown & Jack Gray (eds), Political Culture and Political Change in Communist States (London, Macmillan, 2nd edn, 1979); Stephen White, Political Culture and Soviet Politics (London, Macmillan, 1979); Stephen Welch, 'Issues in the Study of Political Culture: The Example of Communist Party States', British Journal of Political Science, 17, 4, 1987, pp. 479-500; Jeffrey W. Hahn, 'Continuity and Change in Russian Political Culture', British Journal of Political Science, 21, 4, 1991, pp. 393-441.
8. Archie Brown & Jack Gray (eds), Political Culture and Political Change in Communist States (London, Macmillan, 2nd edn, 1979); Stephen White, Political Culture and Soviet Politics (London, Macmillan, 1979); Stephen Welch, 'Issues in the Study of Political Culture: The Example of Communist Party States', British Journal of Political Science, 17, 4, 1987, pp. 479-500; Jeffrey W. Hahn, 'Continuity and Change in Russian Political Culture', British Journal of Political Science, 21, 4, 1991, pp. 393-441.
9. Frederic J. Fleron, 'Post-Soviet Political Culture in Russia: An Assessment of Recent Empirical Investigations', Europe-Asia Studies, 48, 2, 1996, pp. 225-260.
10. For studies with survey data, see e.g., Matthew Wyman, Stephen White, Bill Miller & Paul Heywood, 'Public Opinion, Parties and Voters in the December 1993 Russian Elections', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 4, 1995, pp. 591-614; Jerry F. Hough, 'The Russian Election of 1993', Post-Soviet Affairs, 10, 1, 1994, pp. 1-37; and Stephen White, Richard Rose & Ian McAllister, How Russia Votes (Chatham, NJ, Chatham House, 1997), especially chapters 6-7. On the context, see contributions to Peter Lentini, Elections and Political Order in Russia (Budapest, Central European University Press, 1995).
11. For studies with survey data, see e.g., Matthew Wyman, Stephen White, Bill Miller & Paul Heywood, 'Public Opinion, Parties and Voters in the December 1993 Russian Elections', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 4, 1995, pp. 591-614; Jerry F. Hough, 'The Russian Election of 1993', Post-Soviet Affairs, 10, 1, 1994, pp. 1-37; and Stephen White, Richard Rose & Ian McAllister, How Russia Votes (Chatham, NJ, Chatham House, 1997), especially chapters 6-7. On the context, see contributions to Peter Lentini, Elections and Political Order in Russia (Budapest, Central European University Press, 1995).
12. For studies with survey data, see e.g., Matthew Wyman, Stephen White, Bill Miller & Paul Heywood, 'Public Opinion, Parties and Voters in the December 1993 Russian Elections', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 4, 1995, pp. 591-614; Jerry F. Hough, 'The Russian Election of 1993', Post-Soviet Affairs, 10, 1, 1994, pp. 1-37; and Stephen White, Richard Rose & Ian McAllister, How Russia Votes (Chatham, NJ, Chatham House, 1997), especially chapters 6-7. On the context, see contributions to Peter Lentini, Elections and Political Order in Russia (Budapest, Central European University Press, 1995).
13. For studies with survey data, see e.g., Matthew Wyman, Stephen White, Bill Miller & Paul Heywood, 'Public Opinion, Parties and Voters in the December 1993 Russian Elections', Europe-Asia Studies, 47, 4, 1995, pp. 591-614; Jerry F. Hough, 'The Russian Election of 1993', Post-Soviet Affairs, 10, 1, 1994, pp. 1-37; and Stephen White, Richard Rose & Ian McAllister, How Russia Votes (Chatham, NJ, Chatham House, 1997), especially chapters 6-7. On the context, see contributions to Peter Lentini, Elections and Political Order in Russia (Budapest, Central European University Press, 1995).
14. For the placing of Soviet elections in a conceptual typology of unfree elections, see Guy Hermet, Alain Rouquié & Richard Rose (eds), Elections without Choice (London: Macmillan, 1978), especially the chapter by Alex Pravda, 'Elections in Communist Party States', pp. 169-195.
15. Cf. S. M. Lipset, Political Man (New York, Doubleday, 1960); Russell Dalton, S. C. Flanagan & P. A. Beck (eds), Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies (Princeton, University Press, 1984).
16. Cf. S. M. Lipset, Political Man (New York, Doubleday, 1960); Russell Dalton, S. C. Flanagan & P. A. Beck (eds), Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies (Princeton, University Press, 1984).
17. Ivor Crewe, 'Voters, Parties and Leaders Thirty Years On', in Ian Budge & David McKay (eds), Developing Democracy (London, Sage Publications. 1994), p. 56.
18. Rainer-Olaf Schultze, 'Tschechoslowakei', in Rolf Sternberger, Bernhard Vogel & Dieter Nohlen (eds), Die Wahl der Parlamente und Anderer Staatsorgane, Vol. 1: Europa (Berlin, Walter de Gruyter, 1969), pp. 1285-1330; G abor Toka (ed.), The 1990 Election to the Hungarian National Assembly (Berlin, Sigma, 1995).
19. Rainer-Olaf Schultze, 'Tschechoslowakei', in Rolf Sternberger, Bernhard Vogel & Dieter Nohlen (eds), Die Wahl der Parlamente und Anderer Staatsorgane, Vol. 1: Europa (Berlin, Walter de Gruyter, 1969), pp. 1285-1330; G abor Toka (ed.), The 1990 Election to the Hungarian National Assembly (Berlin, Sigma, 1995).
20. S. M. Lipset & Stein Rokkan (eds), Party Systems and Voter Alignments (New York, Free Press, 1967), pp. 50ff; Stefano Bartolini & Peter Mair, Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates, 1885-1985 (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1990).
21. S. M. Lipset & Stein Rokkan (eds), Party Systems and Voter Alignments (New York, Free Press, 1967), pp. 50ff; Stefano Bartolini & Peter Mair, Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates, 1885-1985 (Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1990).
22. Terence Emmons, The Formation of Political Parties and the First National Elections in Russia (Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1983), p. 367; Peter Mair, What Is Different about Post-Communist Party Systems? (Glasgow, University of Strathclyde Studies in Public Policy No. 259, 1996), p. 6.
23. Terence Emmons, The Formation of Political Parties and the First National Elections in Russia (Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press, 1983), p. 367; Peter Mair, What Is Different about Post-Communist Party Systems? (Glasgow, University of Strathclyde Studies in Public Policy No. 259, 1996), p. 6.
24. See e.g. Michael Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections: the Major Western Democracies (Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press, 1988).
25. Angus Campbell, P. E. Converse, W. E. Miller & D. E. Stokes, The American Voter (New York, John Wiley, 1960).
26. See e.g. Richard Rose, 'Ex-Communists in Post-Communist Societies', Political Quarterly, 67, 1, 1996, pp. 14-25; Stephen White & Ian McAllister, 'The CPSU and Its Members: Between Communism and Postcommunism', British Journal of Political Science, 26, 4, 1996, pp. 105-122.
27. See e.g. Richard Rose, 'Ex-Communists in Post-Communist Societies', Political Quarterly, 67, 1, 1996, pp. 14-25; Stephen White & Ian McAllister, 'The CPSU and Its Members: Between Communism and Postcommunism', British Journal of Political Science, 26, 4, 1996, pp. 105-122.
28. Cf. Philip E. Converse, Of Time and Partisan Stability', Comparative Political Studies, 2, 1, 1969, pp. 139-171; Richard Rose, 'Mobilizing Demobilized Voters in Post-Communist Societies', Party Politics, 1, 4, 1995, pp. 549-563.
29. Cf. Philip E. Converse, Of Time and Partisan Stability', Comparative Political Studies, 2, 1, 1969, pp. 139-171; Richard Rose, 'Mobilizing Demobilized Voters in Post-Communist Societies', Party Politics, 1, 4, 1995, pp. 549-563.
30. White, Rose & McAllister, How Russia Votes, Tables 9.2, 11.2.
31. Richard Rose, What Is Europe? A Dynamic Perspective (New York and London, Longman, 1996), Figure 7.2.
32. For full sampling details, see Richard Rose, New Russia Barometer V: Between the Elections (Glasgow, University of Strathclyde Studies in Public Policy No. 260, 1996). For further details on VTsIOM methods and results, see Ekonomicheskie i Sotsial'nye Peremeny: Monitoring Obschestvennogo Mneniya (Moscow, periodical).
33. For full sampling details, see Richard Rose, New Russia Barometer V: Between the Elections (Glasgow, University of Strathclyde Studies in Public Policy No. 260, 1996). For further details on VTsIOM methods and results, see Ekonomicheskie i Sotsial'nye Peremeny: Monitoring Obschestvennogo Mneniya (Moscow, periodical).
34. For the full text of questions and numerical answers along with sampling details, see Rose, New Russia Barometer V: Between the Elections.
35. 20 Lipset & Rokkan (eds); Ronald Inglehart, Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Societies (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1990); Russell Dalton, Citizen Politics in Western Democracies (Chatham, NJ, Chatham House, 1996), pp. 187ff.
36. 20 Lipset & Rokkan (eds); Ronald Inglehart, Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Societies (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1990); Russell Dalton, Citizen Politics in Western Democracies (Chatham, NJ, Chatham House, 1996), pp. 187ff.
37. See White, Rose & McAllister, How Russia Votes, Table C.2.
38. A reviewer of this article was impressed by the number of religious parties contesting the election; see B. N. Kondrashev, M. M. Dergunov & N. I. Mendikova (eds), Politicheskie partii Rossii (Moscow, Fond Prava, 1995). We are impressed by how few Russians voted for such parties.
39. Cf. Frederic L. Pryor, The Red and the Green: the Rise and Fall of Collectivized Agriculture in Marxist Regimes (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1992); Richard Rose & Evgeny Tikhomirov, 'Who Grows Food in Russia and Eastern Europe?', Post-Soviet Geography, 34, 2, 1993, pp. 111-126.
40. Cf. Frederic L. Pryor, The Red and the Green: the Rise and Fall of Collectivized Agriculture in Marxist Regimes (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1992); Richard Rose & Evgeny Tikhomirov, 'Who Grows Food in Russia and Eastern Europe?', Post-Soviet Geography, 34, 2, 1993, pp. 111-126.
41. For details of the scale, see White, Rose & McAllister, How Russia Votes, pp. 51-54, 285.
42. For a recent review, see Iver B. Neumann, Russia and the Idea of Europe (London, Routledge, 1996).
43. The question read: 'V nashem obshchestve est' lyudi, zanimayuschie vysokoe obshchestven-noe polozhenie, i lyudi, zanimayuschie nizkoe obshchestvennoe polozhenie. A kakoe mesto vy zanimaete v nastoyaschee vremya? 1: vysokoe obshchestvennoe polozhenie; 10: nizkoe obshchestvennoe polozhenie.
44. Current occupational status can only meaningfully be asked of people now in the labour force. Among those employed, there was an association between party choice and occupational status (eta = 0.17); type of employer, e.g. non-market, state enterprise, privatised, new private sector (eta = 0.13); and branch of the economy (eta = 0.12), similar to that for subjective social class.
45. Richard Rose & Ellen Carnaghan, 'Generational Effects on Attitudes to Communist Regimes: a Comparative Analysis', Post-Soviet Affairs, 11, 1, 1995, pp. 28-56.
46. Inglehart, Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Societies', Dalton, Citizen Participation in Western Democracies, pp. 105ff.
47. Inglehart, Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Societies', Dalton, Citizen Participation in Western Democracies, pp. 105ff.
48. Dalton, Citizen Politics in Western Democracies, p. 193.
49. Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1981); Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erickson & James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86, 3, 1992, pp. 597-611.
50. Morris P. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1981); Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erickson & James A. Stimson, 'Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy', American Political Science Review, 86, 3, 1992, pp. 597-611.
51. See the VTsIOM trend data from 1991 onwards, reported in White, Rose & McAllister, How Russia Votes, Table 11.1.
52. See Gregory Grossman, 'The Second Economy of the USSR', Problems of Communism, 26, 5, 1977, pp. 25-40; A. Katsenelinboigen, 'Coloured Markets in the Soviet Union', Soviet Studies, 29, 1, 1977, pp. 62-85; Richard Rose & Ian McAllister, 'Is Money the Measure of Welfare in Russia?', Review of Income and Wealth, 42, 1, 1996, pp. 75-90.
53. See Gregory Grossman, 'The Second Economy of the USSR', Problems of Communism, 26, 5, 1977, pp. 25-40; A. Katsenelinboigen, 'Coloured Markets in the Soviet Union', Soviet Studies, 29, 1, 1977, pp. 62-85; Richard Rose & Ian McAllister, 'Is Money the Measure of Welfare in Russia?', Review of Income and Wealth, 42, 1, 1996, pp. 75-90.
54. See Gregory Grossman, 'The Second Economy of the USSR', Problems of Communism, 26, 5, 1977, pp. 25-40; A. Katsenelinboigen, 'Coloured Markets in the Soviet Union', Soviet Studies, 29, 1, 1977, pp. 62-85; Richard Rose & Ian McAllister, 'Is Money the Measure of Welfare in Russia?', Review of Income and Wealth, 42, 1, 1996, pp. 75-90.
55. Richard Rose, 'Adaptation, Resilience and Destitution: Alternative Responses to Transition in the Ukraine', Problems of Post-Communism, 42, 6, 95, pp. 52-61.
56. Janos Kornai, The Socialist System: the Political Economy of Communism (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1992).
57. The results of analysing many more economic indicators in the New Russia Barometer are not reported here because they correlate strongly with those reported above and/or have no statistically significant effect on voting.
58. Lipset & Rokkan, Party Systems and Voter Alignments, p. 53. See also D. E. Butler & Donald E. Stokes, Political Change in Britain (London, Macmillan, 2nd edn, 1974).
59. Lipset & Rokkan, Party Systems and Voter Alignments, p. 53. See also D. E. Butler & Donald E. Stokes, Political Change in Britain (London, Macmillan, 2nd edn, 1974).
60. For an exposition of this, see Richard Rose & William Mishler, 'Testing the Churchill Hypothesis: Popular Support for Democracy and Its Alternatives', Journal of Public Policy, 16, 1, 1996, pp. 29-58.
61. See e.g. Yuri Levada, Democratic Disorder and Russian Public Opinion: Trends in VTsIOM Surveys 1991-95 (Glasgow, University of Strathclyde Studies in Public Policy No. 255, 1995).
62. John Thornhill, 'Russia's Communists: Same but Different', Financial Times, 14 January 1996, p. 2.
63. See the discussion and sources cited in White, Rose & McAllister, How Russia Votes, chapter 12; and on voters' attitudes, see Richard Rose & Evgeny Tikhomirov, 'Russia's Forced Choice Presidential Election', Post-Soviet Affairs, 12, 4, 1996, pp. 351-379 .
64. See the discussion and sources cited in White, Rose & McAllister, How Russia Votes, chapter 12; and on voters' attitudes, see Richard Rose & Evgeny Tikhomirov, 'Russia's Forced Choice Presidential Election', Post-Soviet Affairs, 12, 4, 1996, pp. 351-379 .
65. William R. Klecka, Discriminant Analysis (Beverly Hills, Sage Series in Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-001, 1980).
66. The eigenvalues (and degrees of freedom) for the five functions are: first, 0.64 (256); second, 0.19 (217); third, 0.16 (180); fourth, 0.11 (145); fifth, 0.09 (112).
67. Otto Kirchheimer, 'The Transformation of the West European Party System', in J. LaPalombara & M. Wiener (eds), Political Parties and Political Development (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1966), pp. 177-200.
68. In the first iteration with only a single discriminant function, 93.5% of the Communist vote can be correctly identified, but at the price of being unable to identify voters for any of the other parties except its polar opposite, Russia's Democratic Choice and Our Home is Russia.
69. Michael McFaul & Nikolai Petrov, Previewing Russia's 1995 Parliamentary Elections (Washington, DC, Carnegie Endowment, 1995). Sergei Markov. 'Izbiratel'nye ob'edineniya v Rossii v preddverii parlamentskikh vyborov 1995 goda', in Igor' Klyamkin et al., Analiz elektorata politicheskikh sil Rossii (Moscow. Komtekh. 1995), pp. 62-91.
70. Michael McFaul & Nikolai Petrov, Previewing Russia's 1995 Parliamentary Elections (Washington, DC, Carnegie Endowment, 1995). Sergei Markov. 'Izbiratel'nye ob'edineniya v Rossii v preddverii parlamentskikh vyborov 1995 goda', in Igor' Klyamkin et al., Analiz elektorata politicheskikh sil Rossii (Moscow. Komtekh. 1995), pp. 62-91.
71. On the concept of a post-totalitarian legacy, see Juan J. Linz & Alfred Stepan, Patterns of Democratic Transition and Consolidation (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996).
72. M. Steven Fish, Democracy from Scratch: Opposition and Regime in the New Russian Revolution (Princeton, Princeton University Press. 1995).