The simulation of daily temperature time series from GCM output. Part II: Sensitivity analysis of an empirical transfer function methodology

Journal of Climate

Volumn 10, Issue 10, 1997, Pages 2514-2532

  Winkler, Julie A ^a   Palutikof, Jean P ^b   Andresen, Jeffrey A ^a   Goodess, Clare M ^b  

^a MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE INCREASE; CLIMATE CHANGE; DOWNSCALING; EMPIRICAL TRANSFER FUNCTION; GCM; TIME SERIES;

SPAIN, MURCIA, ALCANTARILLA; USA, MICHIGAN, EAU CLAIRE;

EID: 0031410058     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2514:TSODTT>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Adams, R. M., C. Rosenzweig, R. M. Peart, J. T. Ritchie, B. A. McCarl, J. D. Glyer, R. B. Curry, J. W. Jones, K. J. Boote, and L. H. Allen, 1990: Global climate change and US agriculture. Nature, 345, 219-224.
2. Boer, G. J., N. A. McFarlane, and M. Lazare, 1992: Greenhouse-gas-induced climate change simulated with the Canadian Climate Centre second generation general circulation model. J. Climate, 5, 1045-1077.
3. Bonan, G. B., H. H. Shugart, and D. L. Urban, 1990: The sensitivity of some high-latitude boreal forests to climatic parameters. Climate Change, 16, 9-29.
4. Carbone, G. J., and M. D. Schwartz, 1993: Potential impact of winter temperature increases on South Carolina peach production. Climate Res., 2, 225-233.
5. Chen, R. S., and P. J. Robinson, 1991: Generating scenarios of local surface temperature using time series methods. J. Climate, 4, 723-732.
6. Cohen, S. J., 1991: Possible impacts of climatic warming scenarios on water resources in the Saskatchewan River sub-basin, Canada. Climate Change, 19, 291-317.
7. 2-induced climatic change on Ontario, Canada. J. Climate, 1, 669-681.
8. Curry, R. B., J. W. Jones, K. J. Botte, R. M. Peart, L. H. Allen Jr., and N. B. Pickering, 1995: Response of soybean to predicted climate change in the USA. Climate Change and Agriculture: Analysis of Potential International Impacts, C. Rosenzweig, L. H. Allen Jr., L. A. Harper, S. E. Hollinger, and J. W. Jones, Eds., American Agronomy Society of America, 163-182.
9. Giorgi, F., 1990: Simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model. J. Climate, 3, 941-963.
10. _, C. Shields Brodeur, and G. T. Bates, 1994: Regional climate change scenarios over the United States produced with a nested regional climate model. Spatial and seasonal characteristics. J. Climate, 7, 375-399.
11. Glahn, H. R., 1985: Statistical weather forecasting. Probability, Statistics and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences, A. H. Murphy and R. W. Katz, Eds., Westview Press, 289-366.
12. Grotch, S. L., and M. C. MacCracken, 1991: The use of general circulation models to predict regional climatic change. J. Climate, 4, 286-303.
13. Gutowski, W. J., Jr., D. S. Gutzler, and W.-C. Wang, 1991: Surface energy balances of three general circulation models: Implications for simulating regional climate change. J. Climate, 4, 121-134.
14. Gyalistras, D., H. von Storch, A. Fischlin, and M. Beniston, 1994: Linking GCM-simulated climatic changes to ecosystem models: Case studies of statistical downscaling in the Alps. Climate Res., 4, 167-189.
15. Hennessy, K. J., and K. Clayton-Greene, 1995: Greenhouse warming and vernalisation of high-chill fruit in southern Australia. Climate Change, 30, 327-348.
16. _, and A. B. Pittock, 1995: Greenhouse wanning and threshold temperature events in Victoria, Australia. Int. J. Climatol., 15, 591-612.
17. Hewitson, B., 1994: Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature. J. Climate, 7, 283-303.
18. _, and R. G. Crane, 1992a: Regional climates in the GISS global circulation model: Synoptic-scale circulation. J. Climate, 5, 1002-1011.
19. _, and _, 1992b: Regional-scale climate prediction from the GISS GCM. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 97, 249-267.
20. Jacks, E., J. B. Bower, V. J. Dagostaro, J. P Dallavalle, M. C. Erickson, and J. C. Su, 1990: New NGM-based MOS guidance for maximum/minimum temperature, probability of precipitation, cloud amount, and surface wind. Wea. Forecasting, 5, 128-138.
21. Jenne, R. L., 1975: Data sets for meteorological research. NCAR Tech. Note NCAR-TN/IA-111, 194 pp. [Available from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000.]
22. Jóhannesson, T., T. Jónsson, E. Källén, and E. Kaas, 1995: Climate change scenarios for the Nordic countries. Climate Res., 5, 118-195.
23. Johnson, G. L., C. L. Hanson, S. P. Hardegree, and E. B. Ballard, 1996: Stochastic weather simulation: Overview and analysis of two commonly used methods. J. Appl. Meteor., 35, 1878-1896.
24. Karl, T. R., W.-C. Wang, M. E. Schlesinger, R. W. Knight, and D. Portman, 1990: A method of relating general circulation model simulated climate to the observed local climate. Part I: Seasonal statistics. J. Climate, 3, 1053-1079.
25. Katz, R. W., 1996: Use of conditional stochastic models to generate climate change scenarios. Climate Change, 32, 237-255.
26. Klein, W. H., 1982: Statistical weather forecasting on different time scales. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 63, 170-177.
27. _, and G. A. Hammons, 1975: Maximum/minimum temperature forecasts based on model output statistics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 103, 796-806.
28. _, B. M. Lewis, and I. Engler, 1959: Objective prediction of five-day mean temperatures during winter. J. Meteor., 16, 672-682.
29. 2 climate change scenario over Europe generated using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model. 1. Present-day seasonal climate simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 97, 9989-10009.
30. McFarlane, N. A., G. J. Boer, J.-P Blanchet, and M. Lazare, 1992: The Canadian Climate Centre second generation general circulation model and its equilibrium climate. J. Climate, 5, 1013-1044.
31. McKendry, I. G., D. G. Steyn, and G. McBean, 1995: Validation of synoptic circulation patterns simulated by the Canadian Climate Centre general circulation model for western North America Atmos.-Ocean, 33, 809-825.
32. 2 general circulation model studies. J. Agric. Forest. Meteor., 62, 159-189.
33. 2 results. Climate Dyn., 11, 193-209.
34. _, C. Rosenzweig, and R. Goldberg, 1996: The effect of changes in daily and interannual climatic variability on CERES-Wheat: A sensitivity study. Climate Change, 32, 257-292.
35. Palutikof, J. P., J. A. Winkler, C. M. Goodess, and J. A. Andresen, 1997: The simulation of daily temperature time series from GCM output. Part I: Comparison of model data with observations. J. Climate, 10 2497-2513.
36. Richardson, C. W., 1981: Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. Water Resour. Res., 17, 182-190.
37. Riha, S. J., D. S. Wilks, and P. Simoens, 1996: Impact of temperature and precipitation variability on crop model predictions. Climate Change, 32, 293-311.
38. Risbey, J. S., and P. H. Stone, 1996: A case study of the adequacy of GCM simulations for input to regional climate change assessments. J. Climate, 9, 1441-1467.
39. Robinson, P. J., A. N. Samel, and G. Madden, 1993: Comparisons of modelled and observed climate for impact assessments. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 48, 75-87.
40. Rosenzweig, C., and M. L. Parry, 1994: Potential effects of climate change on world food supply. Nature, 367, 133-138.
41. Skelly, W. C., and A. Henderson-Sellers, 1996: Grid box or grid point: What type of data do GCMs deliver to climate impacts researchers? Int. J. Climatol., 16, 1079-1086.
42. Takle, E. S., D. J. Bramer, W. E. Heilman, and M. R. Thompson, 1994: A synoptic climatology for forest fires in the NE US and future implications from GCM simulations. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 4, 217-224.
43. Walsh, K., and J. L. McGregor, 1995: January and July climate simulations over the Australian region using a limited area model. J. Climate, 8, 2387-2403.
44. Wilks, D. S., 1992: Adapting stochastic weather generation algorithms for climate change studies. Climate Change, 22, 67-84.