Juvenile transfer cases: Risk assessment and risk management

Journal of Psychiatry and Law

Volumn 25, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 581-614

  Witt, Philip H ^a   Dyer, Frank J ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT; ADOLESCENT; AGGRESSION; ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR; ATTENTION DEFICIT DISORDER; CHILD; COGNITIVE DEFECT; COURT; FAMILY LIFE; FEMALE; HUMAN; JUVENILE DELINQUENCY; MALE; RECIDIVISM; REVIEW; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; RISK MANAGEMENT; SUBSTANCE ABUSE;

EID: 0031402044     PISSN: 00931853     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/009318539702500403     Document Type: Review

References (146)

1. Many states require that the juvenile establish that he can be rehabilitated by a specific age, and that the family court judge consider this in determining whether to transfer him to adult court. In New Jersey, the jurisdiction with which we are most familiar, the relevant legal age is 19 years. N.J.S.A. 2A:4A-26a(3). In the New Jersey case on which the above vignette is based, all four juveniles were transferred - or waived, as it is called in New Jersey - to adult criminal court.
2. Grisso, T. (1996). Society's retributive response to juvenile violence: A developmental perspective. Law and Human Behavior, 20, 229-248.
3. Heilbrun, K., Leheny, C., Thomas, L. & Huneycutt, D. (1997). A national survey of U.S. statutes on juvenile transfer: Implications for public policy and practice. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 15, 125-149.
4. Whitebread, C. & Heilman, J. (1988). An overview of the law of juvenile delinquency. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 6, 285-306.
5. Martinson, R. (1974). What works? The Public Interest, 35, 22-54.
6. Whitebread & Heilman, supra note 4.
7. Id.
8. Heilbrun et al., supra note 3, list waiver criteria for all 50 state jurisdictions, the District of Columbia, and federal courts.
9. Whitebread & Heilman, supra note 4.
10. Kruh, I. P. & Brodsky, S. L. (1997). Clinical evaluations for transfer of juveniles to criminal court: Current practices and future research. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 15, 151-165.
11. Kent v. United States, 383 U.S. 541 (1966); guidelines from Kruh and Brodsky, supra note 10 at 153, citing discussion in Weatherly, D. L. (1990). Legal intervention with juvenile offenders. In L. J. Hertberg, G. F. Ostrum & J. R. Field (eds.), Violent Behavior. Volume 1: Assessment and Intervention (pp. 315-330). Great Neck, NY: PMA Publishing Corp.
12. Kent v. United States, 383 U.S. 541 (1966); guidelines from Kruh and Brodsky, supra note 10 at 153, citing discussion in Weatherly, D. L. (1990). Legal intervention with juvenile offenders. In L. J. Hertberg, G. F. Ostrum & J. R. Field (eds.), Violent Behavior. Volume 1: Assessment and Intervention (pp. 315-330). Great Neck, NY: PMA Publishing Corp.
13. Kent v. United States, 383 U.S. 541 (1966); guidelines from Kruh and Brodsky, supra note 10 at 153, citing discussion in Weatherly, D. L. (1990). Legal intervention with juvenile offenders. In L. J. Hertberg, G. F. Ostrum & J. R. Field (eds.), Violent Behavior. Volume 1: Assessment and Intervention (pp. 315-330). Great Neck, NY: PMA Publishing Corp.
14. Monahan, J. & Steadman, H. J. (1996). Violent storms and violent people: How meteorology can inform risk communication in mental health law. American Psychologist, 51, 931-938.
15. Gottfredson, D. M., Gottfredson, S. D. & Conly, C. H. (1989). Stakes and risk: Incapacitative intent in sentencing decisions. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 7, 91-106.
16. Meehl, P. E. & Rosen, A. (1955). Antecedent probability and the efficacy of psychometric signs, patterns, and cutting scores. Psychological Bulletin, 52, 194-216.
17. Millon, T. (1997). Manual for the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-III. Minnetonka, MN: NCS Assessments.
18. Huizinga, D., Loeber, R. & Thornberry, T. (1994). Urban Delinquency and Substance Abuse - Initial Findings. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.
19. Johnston, L., Bachman, J. & O'Malley, P. (1983 . . . 1995). Monitoring the Future 1983 . . . 1995. Ann Arbor, MI: Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.
20. Mulvey, E. P. & La Rosa, J. F. (1988). Delinquency cessation and adolescent development: Preliminary data. American Journal of Orthopsychiatry, 56, 212-224.
21. For example, the classic study by Wolfgang, M. E., Figlio, R. & Sellin, T. (1972). Delinquency in a Birth Cohort. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
22. Patterson, G. R., Capaldi, D. & Bank, L. (1991). An early starter model for predicting delinquency. In D. J. Pepler & K. H. Rubin (eds.), The Development and Treatment of Childhood Aggression (pp. 139-168). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Earlbaum Associates.
23. New Jersey Juvenile Delinquency Disposition Commission (1997). The chronic juvenile offender: A report. Trenton, NJ: Author.
24. See discussion in Patterson et al., supra note 20 at 142.
25. Wolfgang et al., supra note 19.
26. Clear, T. (1988). Statistical prediction in corrections. Research in Corrections, 1, 1-39. Cited in Wiebush, R. G., Baird, C., Krisberg, B. & Onek, D. (1995). Risk assessment and classification for serious, violent, and chronic juvenile offenders. In J. C. Howell, B. Krisberg, J. D. Hawkins & J. J. Wilson (eds.), A Sourcebook: Serious, Violent, and Chronic Juvenile Offenders (pp. 171-212). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
27. Clear, T. (1988). Statistical prediction in corrections. Research in Corrections, 1, 1-39. Cited in Wiebush, R. G., Baird, C., Krisberg, B. & Onek, D. (1995). Risk assessment and classification for serious, violent, and chronic juvenile offenders. In J. C. Howell, B. Krisberg, J. D. Hawkins & J. J. Wilson (eds.), A Sourcebook: Serious, Violent, and Chronic Juvenile Offenders (pp. 171-212). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
28. Grisso, supra note 2.
29. Reyes, L. (1993). Personal communication to Dewey Cornell (University of Virginia), February 17, 1993. Cited in Grisso, supra note 2.
30. Reyes, L. (1993). Personal communication to Dewey Cornell (University of Virginia), February 17, 1993. Cited in Grisso, supra note 2.
31. Given these findings, it is possible for an expert witness to argue that in the case of a juvenile who has been charged with a very serious offense, the severity of the offense should not be given great weight in assessing recidivism; however, this may be a difficult position to advance on the witness stand. The evidence in this area is not totally consistent, as, for example, the previously cited New Jersey Juvenile Delinquency Disposition Commission study (supra note 21) found chronic offenders to be overrepresented in the first degree offender group.
32. Wadsworth, M. E. J. (1979). Roots of Delinquency: Infancy, Adolescence, and Crime. Oxford, England: Robertson.
33. Osborn, S. G. & West, D. J. (1978). The effectiveness of various predictors of criminal careers. Journal of Adolescence, 1, 101-117.
34. Olweus, D. (1979). Stability of aggressive reaction patterns in males: A review. Psychological Bulletin, 86, 852-875.
35. Wiebush et al., supra note 24, at 172-173.
36. Id.
37. For example, Kazdin, A. E. (1987). Conduct Disorders in Childhood and Adolescence. Newbury Park, CA: Sage; Loeber, R. (1990). Development and risk factors in juvenile antisocial behavior and delinquency. Clinical Psychology Review, 10, 1-41.
38. For example, Kazdin, A. E. (1987). Conduct Disorders in Childhood and Adolescence. Newbury Park, CA: Sage; Loeber, R. (1990). Development and risk factors in juvenile antisocial behavior and delinquency. Clinical Psychology Review, 10, 1-41.
39. Supra note 24.
40. Baird, S. C. (1984). Classification of Juveniles in Corrections: A Model Systems Approach. Madison, WI: National Council on Crime and Delinquency.
41. Wiebush et al., supra note 24, differentiate between placement-assessment instruments and risk-assessment instruments. The former are screening tools to determine whether a juvenile should be held in detention while awaiting an adjudicatory hearing or to guide judges in determining the appropriate placement for youths convicted of offenses. Because of these applications, the factors included in such instruments include "just deserts" and public-sensitivity issues (such as current and prior offense severity), rather than being restricted to those factors that have a strong empirical relationship to reoffending.
42. Smith, C. A., Lizotte, A. J., Thornberry, T. P. & Krohn, M. (1997). Resilience to delinquency. The Prevention Researcher, 4(2), 4-7.
43. Supra note 24.
44. Hare, R. D. (1991). Manual for the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. North Tonawanda, NY: Multi-Health Systems.
45. Heilbrun, A. B. (1996). Criminal Dangerousness and the Risk of Violence. New York: University Press of America.
46. Hare, supra note 39; Webster, C. D., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Cormier, C. & Quinsey, V. L. (1994). The Violence Prediction Scheme: Assessing Dangerousness in High Risk Men, Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto Centre of Criminology.
47. Hare, supra note 39; Webster, C. D., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Cormier, C. & Quinsey, V. L. (1994). The Violence Prediction Scheme: Assessing Dangerousness in High Risk Men, Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto Centre of Criminology.
48. Heilbrun, supra note 40.
49. Loeber, supra note 33.
50. Heilbrun, supra note 40.
51. Heilbrun, supra note 40, at 14.
52. Raine, A. (1993). The Psychopathology of Crime. New York: Academic Press.
53. Grande, C. G. (1993). Delinquency: The learning disabled student's reaction to academic school failure? Adolescence, 23, 209-219.
54. Raine, A., O'Brien, M., Smiley, N., Scerbo, A. & Chan, C. J. (1990). Reduced lateralization in verbal dichotic listening in adolescent psychopaths. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 99, 272-277.
55. Krisberg, B., Currie, E., Onek, D. & Wiebush, R. G. (1995). Graduated sanctions for serious, violent, and chronic juvenile offenders. In J. C. Howell, B. Krisberg, J. D. Hawkins & J. J. Wilson (eds.), A Sourcebook: Serious, Violent, and Chronic Juvenile Offenders (pp. 142-170). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
56. Hirschi, T. (1969). Causes of Delinquency. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
57. Smith et al., supra note 37.
58. Smith et al., id., also investigated the short- and long-term effectiveness of protective factors in both high- and low-risk subjects. The breakdown of short- and long-term effectiveness by risk classification showed dramatic differences over time. While protective factors are associated with resistance to delinquent behavior in grades 8 and 9, higher numbers of protective factors do not increase resistance for high-risk adolescents between grades 9 and 11. During grades 8 and 9, high-risk youths with multiple protective factors are similar to low-risk youths in delinquency rates. In the long run, however, protective factors were found to have little effect on delinquency in high-risk youths.
59. Loeber, R., Wung, P., Keenan, K., Giroux, B., Stouthamer-Loeber, M., Van Kammen, W. B. & Mughan, B. (1993). Developmental pathways in disruptive child behavior. Development and Psychopathology, 5, 103-133.
60. Patterson, G. R., Reid, J. B. & Dishion, T. J. (1992). Antisocial Boys. Eugene, OR: Castalia Publishing.
61. Peters, R. D. (1991). Commentary: Expanding the perspective on contributing factors and service delivery approaches to childhood aggression. In D. J. Pepler & K. H. Rubin (eds.), The Development and Treatment of Childhood Aggression (pp. 189-197). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Earlbaum Associates.
62. Cornell, D. G., Benedek, E. P. & Benedek, D. M. (1989). A typology of juvenile homicide offenders. In E. P. Benedek & D. G. Cornell (eds.), Juvenile Homicide. Washington, DC: American Psychiatric Association Press.
63. Loeber, supra note 33.
64. Moffit, T. E. (1993). Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100, 674-701. Cited in Howell, J. C. (1997). Juvenile Justice and Youth Violence (pp. 155-157). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
65. Moffit, T. E. (1993). Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100, 674-701. Cited in Howell, J. C. (1997). Juvenile Justice and Youth Violence (pp. 155-157). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
66. Dodge, K. A. (1991). The structure and function of reactive and proactive aggression. In D. J. Pepler & K. H. Rubin (eds.), The Development and Treatment of Childhood Aggression (pp. 201-218). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Earlbaum Associates.
67. See discussion in Howell, supra note 58, pp. 172-173.
68. Patterson et al., supra note 20, supra note 54.
69. Peters, supra note 55.
70. Offord, D. R., Boyle, M. H. & Racine, Y. A. (1991). The epidemiology of antisocial behavior in childhood and adolescence. In D. J. Pepler & K. H. Rubin (eds.), The Development and Treatment of Childhood Aggression (pp. 31-54). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Earlbaum Associates.
71. Loeber, supra note 33.
72. Id. With regard specifically to lead poisoning, Needleman et al. conducted a four-year study of 301 boys enrolled in the Pittsburgh Youth Study, with the sample balanced to include children who were at high and at low risk of delinquency. Bone-lead levels recorded at ages 10 and 12 years were correlated with a variety of indicators of delinquent behavior. Even after statistically accounting for a number of potential alternative factors, the high-lead-level adolescents were found to be more delinquent and aggressive than their low-lead-level counterparts. Needleman, H. L., Reiss, J. A., Tobin, M. J., Biesecker, G. E. & Greenhouse, J. B. (1996). Bone lead levels and delinquent behavior. Journal of the American Medical Association, 275, 363-369. Similar findings are reported in Great Britain in Thompson, G. O., Raab, G. M., Hepburn, W. S. & Hunter, R. (1989). Blood levels and children's behavior: Results for the Edinburgh Lead Study. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry and Allied Disciplines, 30, 515-528, Cited in Raine, supra note 46.
73. Id. With regard specifically to lead poisoning, Needleman et al. conducted a four-year study of 301 boys enrolled in the Pittsburgh Youth Study, with the sample balanced to include children who were at high and at low risk of delinquency. Bone-lead levels recorded at ages 10 and 12 years were correlated with a variety of indicators of delinquent behavior. Even after statistically accounting for a number of potential alternative factors, the high-lead-level adolescents were found to be more delinquent and aggressive than their low-lead-level counterparts. Needleman, H. L., Reiss, J. A., Tobin, M. J., Biesecker, G. E. & Greenhouse, J. B. (1996). Bone lead levels and delinquent behavior. Journal of the American Medical Association, 275, 363-369. Similar findings are reported in Great Britain in Thompson, G. O., Raab, G. M., Hepburn, W. S. & Hunter, R. (1989). Blood levels and children's behavior: Results for the Edinburgh Lead Study. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry and Allied Disciplines, 30, 515-528, Cited in Raine, supra note 46.
74. Id. With regard specifically to lead poisoning, Needleman et al. conducted a four-year study of 301 boys enrolled in the Pittsburgh Youth Study, with the sample balanced to include children who were at high and at low risk of delinquency. Bone-lead levels recorded at ages 10 and 12 years were correlated with a variety of indicators of delinquent behavior. Even after statistically accounting for a number of potential alternative factors, the high-lead-level adolescents were found to be more delinquent and aggressive than their low-lead-level counterparts. Needleman, H. L., Reiss, J. A., Tobin, M. J., Biesecker, G. E. & Greenhouse, J. B. (1996). Bone lead levels and delinquent behavior. Journal of the American Medical Association, 275, 363-369. Similar findings are reported in Great Britain in Thompson, G. O., Raab, G. M., Hepburn, W. S. & Hunter, R. (1989). Blood levels and children's behavior: Results for the Edinburgh Lead Study. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry and Allied Disciplines, 30, 515-528, Cited in Raine, supra note 46.
75. Loeber, supra note 33.
76. Patterson et al., supra note 20, supra note 54.
77. Id.
78. Kazdin, supra note 33.
79. Eron, L. D., Huesmann, L. R. & Zelli, A. (1991). The role of parental variables in the learning of aggression. In D. J. Pepler & K. H. Rubin (eds.), The Development and Treatment of Childhood Aggression (pp. 169-188). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Earlbaum Associates; Loeber, supra note 33.
80. Eron, L. D., Huesmann, L. R. & Zelli, A. (1991). The role of parental variables in the learning of aggression. In D. J. Pepler & K. H. Rubin (eds.), The Development and Treatment of Childhood Aggression (pp. 169-188). Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Earlbaum Associates; Loeber, supra note 33.
81. Patterson et al., supra note 20, supra note 54.
82. Bukstein, O. G. (1995). Adolescent Substance Abuse: Assessment, Prevention, and Treatment. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
83. Loeber, supra note 33.
84. Patterson et al., supra note 20, supra note 54.
85. Peters, supra note 55.
86. Loeber, supra note 33.
87. Id.; Patterson et al., supra note 20, supra note 54.
88. Loeber, supra note 33.
89. Id.
90. Id.
91. Id.; Patterson et al., supra note 20, supra note 54.
92. Cornell et al., supra note 56; Dodge, supra note 59.
93. Cornell et al., supra note 56; Dodge, supra note 59.
94. Cornell et al., supra note 56.
95. Id.
96. Id.
97. Hare, supra note 39.
98. Fonagy et al. state that projective tests discriminate reasonably well between violent/criminal and nonviolent individuals in degree of affectional relatedness, with antisocial individuals showing less of a connection to others. They note that this holds true for both adult criminals and conduct-disordered adolescents. Fonagy, P., Target, M., Steele, M., Steele, H., Leigh, H., Levinson, A. & Kennedy, R. (1997). Morality, disruptive behavior, borderline personality disorder, crime, and their relationships to security of attachment. In L. Atkinson & K. J. Zucker (eds.), Attachment and Psychopathology (pp. 223-274). New York: Guilford Press. Use of projective tests is an area of some dispute, with some evaluators believing such tests to be sufficiently reliable and valid to use in forensic cases and other evaluators believing otherwise. Regardless of the method used, however, we believe that that adolescent's ability to form emotional bonds with others should be assessed.
99. Heilbrun, K. (1992). The role of psychological testing in forensic assessment. Law and Human Behavior, 16, 257-272.
100. One study reports that for a sample of 513 delinquent males under the age of 17 years, a Performance IQ 20 or more points greater than Verbal IQ was a stronger predictor of delinquency than either race or SES and remained a strong predictor even when race and SES were statistically accounted for; a boy who has a Performance IQ greater than a Verbal IQ discrepancy of 15 points or more is 2.5 times more likely to appear in a delinquent sample than their numbers in the general population would predict. Moreover, this Performance IQ-Verbal IQ discrepancy predicts frequency and intensity of delinquent involvement in boys who have already been adjudicated delinquent. Conversely, having a Verbal IQ higher than a Performance IQ can indicate a good prognosis. Walsh, A. (1992). The P>V sign in corrections: Is it a useful diagnostic tool? Criminal Justice and Behavior, 19, 372-383. When integrating clinical and actuarial factors, one is still left with the problem of how to weigh each group of factors' relative contribution to overall risk. Although we recommend that clinical factors be considered, we believe more relative weight should be given to actuarial factors, given their more extensive empirical support. This practice conforms to accepted methods in risk assessment with adults, for example, Webster et al., supra note 41.
101. Quay, H. C. (ed.) (1987). Handbook of Juvenile Delinquency. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
102. These findings are consistent with Hirschi and Hindelang's discussion of the role of decreased verbal mediation ability in delinquents. Hirschi, T. & Hindelang, M. J. (1977). Intelligence and delinquency: A revisionist review. American Sociological Review 42, 571-587.
103. Heilbrun, K. (1997). Prediction versus management models relevant to risk assessment: The importance of legal decision-making contexts. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 347-359.
104. Lacayo, R. (7/21/97). Teen crime. Time magazine, 150(3), 26-29.
105. Id.
106. Grisso, supra note 2.
107. Kruh & Brodsky, supra note 10.
108. Lewis, A. (1997). Suffer the children. The New York Times, 7/7/97, p. A15.
109. Howell, J. C., Krisberg, B. & Jones, M. (1995). Trends in juvenile crime and youth violence. In J. C. Howell, B. Krisberg, J. D. Hawkins & J. J. Wilson (eds.), A Sourcebook: Serious, Violent, and Chronic Juvenile Offenders (pp. 1-35). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
110. Kruh & Brodsky, supra note 10.
111. Grisso, supra note 2.
112. Bishop, D. M., Frazier, C. E., Lanza-Kaduce, L. & Winner, L. (1996). The transfer of juveniles to criminal court: Does it make a difference? Crime & Delinquency, 42, 171-191.
113. Further, for six of seven offense subtypes, ranging from the most serious felony against persons to minor misdemeanor offenses against public order, the difference between pairs was significant, with the transferred member of the pair having a higher rearrest rate per person year of exposure, being quicker to reoffend, and being arrested more often for felony offenses. Id.
114. Fagan, J. (1995). Separating the men from the boys: The comparative advantage of juvenile versus criminal court sanctions on recidivism among adolescent felony offenders. In J. C. Howell, B. Krisberg, J. D. Hawkins, & J. J. Wilson (eds.) A Sourcebook: Serious, Violent, and Chronic Juvenile Offenders (pp. 236-260). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
115. Id. at 254. A possible criticism of the Fagan study is that assignment to adult and juvenile court is partially confounded with an incorrigibility factor, as waiver of the case out of the juvenile justice system under New Jersey law is at the discretion of the family court judge, based in part on whether the juvenile can demonstrate a probability of rehabilitation prior to 19 years. Indeed, a proportional hazard model included as an ancillary analysis in the study found a substantial effect for prior criminal history.
116. Supra note 58, pp. 90-98.
117. However, the Bishop et al. study, supra note 102, did control for differences between the transferred and non-transferred groups by using a matched-pairs design.
118. Supra note 99.
119. Although the ideal would be to have recidivism studies for the specific rehabilitation programs in one's jurisdiction, in reality this is rarely the case. Experts typically must make do with classifying the rehabilitation programs available into general types and then indicating whether these types have been found to be effective.
120. Grisso, supra note 2; Basta, J. M. & Davidson, W. S. (1988). Treatment of juvenile offenders: Study outcomes since 1980. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 6, 355-384.
121. Grisso, supra note 2; Basta, J. M. & Davidson, W. S. (1988). Treatment of juvenile offenders: Study outcomes since 1980. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 6, 355-384.
122. Basta & Davidson, supra note 110.
123. Lipsey, M. W. (1992). Juvenile delinquency treatment: A metaanalytic inquiry into the variability of effects. In T. D. Cook, H. Cooper, D. S. Cordray, H. Hartmann, L. V. Hedges, R. J. Kight, T. A. Louis & F. Mosteller (eds.), Meta-analysis for Explanation (pp. 82-127). New York: Russell Sage. Cited in Howell et al., supra note 99.
124. Lipsey, M. W. (1992). Juvenile delinquency treatment: A metaanalytic inquiry into the variability of effects. In T. D. Cook, H. Cooper, D. S. Cordray, H. Hartmann, L. V. Hedges, R. J. Kight, T. A. Louis & F. Mosteller (eds.), Meta-analysis for Explanation (pp. 82-127). New York: Russell Sage. Cited in Howell et al., supra note 99.
125. One authority notes: Two caveats [regarding Lipsey's results] are noteworthy. First, overall the magnitude of the positive results was quite modest. Nonetheless, even a modest effect of treatment can have a substantial social and economic benefit. The South Carolina Department of Youth Services has estimated, for example, that a reduction in recidivism by juvenile probationers from 29% to 25% would result in savings equivalent to one-half of the entire budget of the state's juvenile justice system. Melton, G. B., Petrila, J., Poythress, N. G. & Slobogin, C. (1997). Psychological Evaluations for the Courts (2nd edition) (p. 431). New York: Guilford Press.
126. See discussion of Lipsey 1992 meta-analysis in Howell, supra note 58, at 199.
127. See discussion of current Lipsey & Derzon, meta-analysis in Howell, supra note 58, at 199.
128. Supra note 99.
129. Krisberg, B. & Austin, J. (1993). Reinventing Juvenile Justice. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
130. Henggeler, S. W. & Borduin, C. M. (1990). Family Therapy and Beyond: A Multisystemic Approach to Treating Behavior Problems of Children and Adolescents. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole. Henggeler, S. W., Melton, G. B., Brondino, M. J., Scherer, D. G. & Hanley, J. H. (1997). Multisystemic therapy with violent and chronic juvenile offenders and their families: The role of treatment fidelity in successful dissemination. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 65, 821-833. Henggeler, S. W., Melton, G. B. & Smith, L. A. (1992). Family preservation using multisystemic therapy: An alternative to incarcerating serious juvenile offenders. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 60, 953-961. Melton et al., supra note 113.
131. Henggeler, S. W. & Borduin, C. M. (1990). Family Therapy and Beyond: A Multisystemic Approach to Treating Behavior Problems of Children and Adolescents. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole. Henggeler, S. W., Melton, G. B., Brondino, M. J., Scherer, D. G. & Hanley, J. H. (1997). Multisystemic therapy with violent and chronic juvenile offenders and their families: The role of treatment fidelity in successful dissemination. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 65, 821-833. Henggeler, S. W., Melton, G. B. & Smith, L. A. (1992). Family preservation using multisystemic therapy: An alternative to incarcerating serious juvenile offenders. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 60, 953-961. Melton et al., supra note 113.
132. Henggeler, S. W. & Borduin, C. M. (1990). Family Therapy and Beyond: A Multisystemic Approach to Treating Behavior Problems of Children and Adolescents. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole. Henggeler, S. W., Melton, G. B., Brondino, M. J., Scherer, D. G. & Hanley, J. H. (1997). Multisystemic therapy with violent and chronic juvenile offenders and their families: The role of treatment fidelity in successful dissemination. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 65, 821-833. Henggeler, S. W., Melton, G. B. & Smith, L. A. (1992). Family preservation using multisystemic therapy: An alternative to incarcerating serious juvenile offenders. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 60, 953-961. Melton et al., supra note 113.
133. Henggeler, S. W. & Borduin, C. M. (1990). Family Therapy and Beyond: A Multisystemic Approach to Treating Behavior Problems of Children and Adolescents. Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole. Henggeler, S. W., Melton, G. B., Brondino, M. J., Scherer, D. G. & Hanley, J. H. (1997). Multisystemic therapy with violent and chronic juvenile offenders and their families: The role of treatment fidelity in successful dissemination. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 65, 821-833. Henggeler, S. W., Melton, G. B. & Smith, L. A. (1992). Family preservation using multisystemic therapy: An alternative to incarcerating serious juvenile offenders. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 60, 953-961. Melton et al., supra note 113.
134. Adapted from Melton et al., supra note 113.
135. MST most closely approximates the risk-management approach advocated by Heilbrun, supra note 93.
136. Henggeler, Melton & Smith, supra note 118.
137. Borduin, C. M., Mann, B. J., Cone, L. T., Henggeler, S. W., Fucci, B. R., Blake, D. M. & Williams, R. A. (1995). Multisystemic treatment of serious juvenile offenders: Long-term prevention of criminality and violence. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 63, 569-578. Discussed in Melton et al., supra note 113.
138. Borduin, C. M., Mann, B. J., Cone, L. T., Henggeler, S. W., Fucci, B. R., Blake, D. M. & Williams, R. A. (1995). Multisystemic treatment of serious juvenile offenders: Long-term prevention of criminality and violence. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 63, 569-578. Discussed in Melton et al., supra note 113.
139. See discussions in Henggeler et al., 1997, supra note 118, and Melton et al., supra note 113.
140. See discussions in Henggeler et al., 1997, supra note 118, and Melton et al., supra note 113.
141. Howell et al., supra note 99.
142. Id.
143. Melton et al., supra note 113, at 431-432.
144. Bishop et al., supra note 102.
145. Kruh & Brodsky, supra note 10, at 156.
146. Although we agree in principle with Kruh and Brodsky that the group data used to validate risk factors or assess the effectiveness of treatment programs does not permit an exact fit onto the juvenile or treatment program in a specific case, we believe nonetheless that the use of such data reduces uncertainty to a sufficient degree to make its use justified.