Political parties and public policy: Social welfare policy from carter to bush

Polity

Volumn 29, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 539-561

  Royed, Terry J ^a   Borrelli, Stephen A ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0031287667     PISSN: 00323497     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/3235267     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. 1. For discussion of effectiveness criteria, see R. Kent Weaver and Bert Rockman, eds., Do Institutions Matter? (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1993). For discussion of possible indicators of "democraticness," see Arend Lijphart, "Constitutional Choices for New Democracies," Journal of Democracy, 2 (1991): 72-84.
2. 1. For discussion of effectiveness criteria, see R. Kent Weaver and Bert Rockman, eds., Do Institutions Matter? (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1993). For discussion of possible indicators of "democraticness," see Arend Lijphart, "Constitutional Choices for New Democracies," Journal of Democracy, 2 (1991): 72-84.
3. 2. Jon Bond and Richard Fleisher, The President in the Legislative Area (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1990); Mark Peterson, Legislating Together (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1990).
4. 2. Jon Bond and Richard Fleisher, The President in the Legislative Area (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1990); Mark Peterson, Legislating Together (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1990).
5. 3. Jeff Fishel, Presidents and Promises (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1985), p. 50.
6. 4. David Mayhew, Divided We Govern (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1991), p. 196; for a similar argument against a "presidency-centered" perspective, see Charles Jones, The Presidency in a Separated System (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1994).
7. 4. David Mayhew, Divided We Govern (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1991), p. 196; for a similar argument against a "presidency-centered" perspective, see Charles Jones, The Presidency in a Separated System (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1994).
8. 5. Mayhew, Divided We Govern; Jones reanalyzes some of Mayhew's data and arrives at similar conclusions in The Presidency in a Separated System.
9. 5. Mayhew, Divided We Govern; Jones reanalyzes some of Mayhew's data and arrives at similar conclusions in The Presidency in a Separated System.
10. 6. Harold Lasswell, Politics: Who Gets What, When, and How (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1936).
11. 7. Ian Budge, David Robertson, and Derek Hearl, Ideology, Strategy and Party Change: Spatial Analyses of Post-War Election Programmes in 19 Democracies (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987); Ian Budge and Richard Hofferbert, "Mandates and Policy Outputs: U.S. Party Platforms and Federal Expenditures," American Political Science Review, 84 (1990): 111-32; Richard Hofferbert and Ian Budge, "The Party Mandate and the Westminster Model: Election Programmes and Government Spending in Britain, 1948-1985," British Journal of Political Science, 23 (1992): 151-82; Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Richard Hofferbert, and Ian Budge, Parties, Policies, and Democracy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994). Benjamin Ginsberg uses an approach similar to the Manifesto Research Group scholars; he looks at the U.S. case between 1844-1968, and concludes that major policy change is pledged and takes place chiefly during "critical" or "realigning" periods. See Benjamin Ginsberg, "Elections and Public Policy," American Political Science Review, 70 (1976): 41-49.
12. 7. Ian Budge, David Robertson, and Derek Hearl, Ideology, Strategy and Party Change: Spatial Analyses of Post-War Election Programmes in 19 Democracies (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987); Ian Budge and Richard Hofferbert, "Mandates and Policy Outputs: U.S. Party Platforms and Federal Expenditures," American Political Science Review, 84 (1990): 111-32; Richard Hofferbert and Ian Budge, "The Party Mandate and the Westminster Model: Election Programmes and Government Spending in Britain, 1948-1985," British Journal of Political Science, 23 (1992): 151-82; Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Richard Hofferbert, and Ian Budge, Parties, Policies, and Democracy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994). Benjamin Ginsberg uses an approach similar to the Manifesto Research Group scholars; he looks at the U.S. case between 1844-1968, and concludes that major policy change is pledged and takes place chiefly during "critical" or "realigning" periods. See Benjamin Ginsberg, "Elections and Public Policy," American Political Science Review, 70 (1976): 41-49.
13. 7. Ian Budge, David Robertson, and Derek Hearl, Ideology, Strategy and Party Change: Spatial Analyses of Post-War Election Programmes in 19 Democracies (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987); Ian Budge and Richard Hofferbert, "Mandates and Policy Outputs: U.S. Party Platforms and Federal Expenditures," American Political Science Review, 84 (1990): 111-32; Richard Hofferbert and Ian Budge, "The Party Mandate and the Westminster Model: Election Programmes and Government Spending in Britain, 1948-1985," British Journal of Political Science, 23 (1992): 151-82; Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Richard Hofferbert, and Ian Budge, Parties, Policies, and Democracy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994). Benjamin Ginsberg uses an approach similar to the Manifesto Research Group scholars; he looks at the U.S. case between 1844-1968, and concludes that major policy change is pledged and takes place chiefly during "critical" or "realigning" periods. See Benjamin Ginsberg, "Elections and Public Policy," American Political Science Review, 70 (1976): 41-49.
14. 7. Ian Budge, David Robertson, and Derek Hearl, Ideology, Strategy and Party Change: Spatial Analyses of Post-War Election Programmes in 19 Democracies (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987); Ian Budge and Richard Hofferbert, "Mandates and Policy Outputs: U.S. Party Platforms and Federal Expenditures," American Political Science Review, 84 (1990): 111-32; Richard Hofferbert and Ian Budge, "The Party Mandate and the Westminster Model: Election Programmes and Government Spending in Britain, 1948-1985," British Journal of Political Science, 23 (1992): 151-82; Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Richard Hofferbert, and Ian Budge, Parties, Policies, and Democracy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994). Benjamin Ginsberg uses an approach similar to the Manifesto Research Group scholars; he looks at the U.S. case between 1844-1968, and concludes that major policy change is pledged and takes place chiefly during "critical" or "realigning" periods. See Benjamin Ginsberg, "Elections and Public Policy," American Political Science Review, 70 (1976): 41-49.
15. 7. Ian Budge, David Robertson, and Derek Hearl, Ideology, Strategy and Party Change: Spatial Analyses of Post-War Election Programmes in 19 Democracies (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987); Ian Budge and Richard Hofferbert, "Mandates and Policy Outputs: U.S. Party Platforms and Federal Expenditures," American Political Science Review, 84 (1990): 111-32; Richard Hofferbert and Ian Budge, "The Party Mandate and the Westminster Model: Election Programmes and Government Spending in Britain, 1948-1985," British Journal of Political Science, 23 (1992): 151-82; Hans-Dieter Klingemann, Richard Hofferbert, and Ian Budge, Parties, Policies, and Democracy (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994). Benjamin Ginsberg uses an approach similar to the Manifesto Research Group scholars; he looks at the U.S. case between 1844-1968, and concludes that major policy change is pledged and takes place chiefly during "critical" or "realigning" periods. See Benjamin Ginsberg, "Elections and Public Policy," American Political Science Review, 70 (1976): 41-49.
16. 8. Budge and Hofferbert, "Mandates and Policy Outputs," p. 130.
17. 9. See Terry Royed, "Testing the Mandate Model in Britain and the United States: Evidence from the Reagan and Thatcher Eras," British Journal of Political Science, 26 (1996): 45-80, for further discussion of the MRG approach.
18. 10. Gerald Pomper with Susan Lederman, Elections in America (New York: Longman, 1982).
19. 11. Royed, "Testing the Mandate Model." Other studies which identify pledges and determine fulfillment include (for the British case) Richard Rose, Do Parties Make a Difference? 2nd ed. (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1984); and Colin Railings, "The Influence of Election Programmes: Britain and Canada 1945-1979," in Budge, Robertson, and Hearl, Ideology, Strategy, and Party Change, pp. 1-14. For the American case, see John Bradley, "Party Platforms and Party Performance Concerning Social Security," Polity, 1 (1969): 337-58; Paul David, "Party Platforms as National Plans," Public Administration Review, 31 (1971): 303-15.
20. 11. Royed, "Testing the Mandate Model." Other studies which identify pledges and determine fulfillment include (for the British case) Richard Rose, Do Parties Make a Difference? 2nd ed. (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1984); and Colin Railings, "The Influence of Election Programmes: Britain and Canada 1945-1979," in Budge, Robertson, and Hearl, Ideology, Strategy, and Party Change, pp. 1-14. For the American case, see John Bradley, "Party Platforms and Party Performance Concerning Social Security," Polity, 1 (1969): 337-58; Paul David, "Party Platforms as National Plans," Public Administration Review, 31 (1971): 303-15.
21. 11. Royed, "Testing the Mandate Model." Other studies which identify pledges and determine fulfillment include (for the British case) Richard Rose, Do Parties Make a Difference? 2nd ed. (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1984); and Colin Railings, "The Influence of Election Programmes: Britain and Canada 1945-1979," in Budge, Robertson, and Hearl, Ideology, Strategy, and Party Change, pp. 1-14. For the American case, see John Bradley, "Party Platforms and Party Performance Concerning Social Security," Polity, 1 (1969): 337-58; Paul David, "Party Platforms as National Plans," Public Administration Review, 31 (1971): 303-15.
22. 11. Royed, "Testing the Mandate Model." Other studies which identify pledges and determine fulfillment include (for the British case) Richard Rose, Do Parties Make a Difference? 2nd ed. (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House, 1984); and Colin Railings, "The Influence of Election Programmes: Britain and Canada 1945-1979," in Budge, Robertson, and Hearl, Ideology, Strategy, and Party Change, pp. 1-14. For the American case, see John Bradley, "Party Platforms and Party Performance Concerning Social Security," Polity, 1 (1969): 337-58; Paul David, "Party Platforms as National Plans," Public Administration Review, 31 (1971): 303-15.
23. 12. Social welfare was the most salient issue for both parties in 1988; was the second most salient for the Democrats in 1976 and the Republicans in 1980 and 1984; and was third in importance for the Republicans in 1976 and the Democrats in 1980 (behind economics and natural resources). Salience of social welfare dropped somewhat for the Democrats in 1984 when it ranked behind economics, civil rights and liberties, and natural resource policies.
24. 13. Barbara Sinclair, "Agenda and Alignment Change: The House of Representatives 1925-1978," in Congress Reconsidered, ed. Lawrence Dodd and Bruce Oppenheimer, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1981), pp. 221-45; David Brady, Critical Elections and Congressional Policymaking (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1988).
25. 13. Barbara Sinclair, "Agenda and Alignment Change: The House of Representatives 1925-1978," in Congress Reconsidered, ed. Lawrence Dodd and Bruce Oppenheimer, 2nd ed. (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1981), pp. 221-45; David Brady, Critical Elections and Congressional Policymaking (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1988).
26. 14. Aage Clausen, How Congressmen Decide: A Policy Focus (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1973).
27. 15. Warren Miller and Donald Stokes, "Constituency Influence in Congress," American Political Science Review, 57 (1963): 45-56; Sinclair, "Agenda and Alignment Change."
28. 15. Warren Miller and Donald Stokes, "Constituency Influence in Congress," American Political Science Review, 57 (1963): 45-56; Sinclair, "Agenda and Alignment Change."
29. 16. John Sullivan, Earl Shaw, Gregory McAvoy, and David Barnum, "The Dimensions of Cue-Taking in the House of Representatives: Variation by Issue Area," Journal of Politics, 55 (1993): 975-97.
30. 17. Pomper and Lederman find that the "in-party" achieves greater pledge fulfillment than the "out-party," especially in the area of social welfare (Elections in America, p. 165); Ripley and Franklin suggest that presidential influence is especially great on such "redistributive" issues: see Randall Ripley and Grace Franklin, Congress, the Bureaucracy, and Public Policy (Homewood, IL: Dorsey Press, 1984), pp. 24-25, 201.
31. 17. Pomper and Lederman find that the "in-party" achieves greater pledge fulfillment than the "out-party," especially in the area of social welfare (Elections in America, p. 165); Ripley and Franklin suggest that presidential influence is especially great on such "redistributive" issues: see Randall Ripley and Grace Franklin, Congress, the Bureaucracy, and Public Policy (Homewood, IL: Dorsey Press, 1984), pp. 24-25, 201.
32. 18. David Mayhew, Divided We Govern.
33. 19. John Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, 2nd ed. (New York: Harper Collins, 1995); for a discussion of the "garbage can" model as originally applied to general organizational decisionmaking, see Michael Cohen, James March, and Johan Olsen, "A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice," Administrative Science Quarterly, 17 (1972): 1-25.
34. 19. John Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, 2nd ed. (New York: Harper Collins, 1995); for a discussion of the "garbage can" model as originally applied to general organizational decisionmaking, see Michael Cohen, James March, and Johan Olsen, "A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice," Administrative Science Quarterly, 17 (1972): 1-25.
35. 20. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, pp. 84-88.
36. 21. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, p. 17.
37. 22. Mayhew, Divided We Govern, pp. 142-74.
38. 23. Alan Monroe, "American Party Platforms and Public Opinion," American Journal of Political Science, 27 (1983): 27-42.
39. 24. Benjamin Page, "Democratic Responsiveness? Untying the Links Between Public Opinion and Policy," PS: Political Science and Politics, 27 (1994): 25-28.
40. 25. For discussions of economic and budgetary constraints on policymaking, see Paul Light, "Presidential Focusing Skill," in Congressional Politics, ed. Christopher Deering (Chicago: Dorsey, 1989); Paul Pierson, Dismantling the Welfare State? (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994); and Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, pp. 105-09.
41. 25. For discussions of economic and budgetary constraints on policymaking, see Paul Light, "Presidential Focusing Skill," in Congressional Politics, ed. Christopher Deering (Chicago: Dorsey, 1989); Paul Pierson, Dismantling the Welfare State? (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994); and Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, pp. 105-09.
42. 25. For discussions of economic and budgetary constraints on policymaking, see Paul Light, "Presidential Focusing Skill," in Congressional Politics, ed. Christopher Deering (Chicago: Dorsey, 1989); Paul Pierson, Dismantling the Welfare State? (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994); and Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies, pp. 105-09.
43. 26. Richard Neustadt, Presidential Power (New York: Wiley, 1980); Marcia Whicker and Raymond Moore, When Presidents are Great (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1988).
44. 26. Richard Neustadt, Presidential Power (New York: Wiley, 1980); Marcia Whicker and Raymond Moore, When Presidents are Great (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1988).
45. 27. Some readers might wonder whether a multivariate statistical analysis would help sort out various causal factors. The most immediate problem with such an approach is the small sample size: our dependent variable is the "percentage of pledges fulfilled per term." This gives us an n = 8 clearly insufficient for statistical analysis. In addition, we do not expect to find a significant linear correlation between such variables as public opinion or state of the economy and pledge fulfillment. Instead, we see the policymaking process as more consistent with a "garbage can" model as applied by Kingdon. According to that model, policymaking is a fluid and complex process in which it is unlikely that we could find significant correlations between any one independent variable and any one dependent variable, even if the independent variable does (in combination with other things) have causal impact.
46. 28. Pomper and Lederman, Elections in America, pp. 136-37, 145-46.
47. 29. Pomper and Lederman, Elections in America, pp. 146-47, 151.
48. 30. Mayhew, Divided We Govern, p. 98.
49. 31. Congressional Quarterly, Congressional Quarterly Almanac, 1981 ed. (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, 1982), p. 24.
50. 32. See Paul Light, Artful Work (New York: Random House, 1985).
51. 33. Congressional Quarterly, Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 46 (1988): 2699.
52. 34. The unusually brief 1984 GOP platform made some general statements about the importance of work incentives in the welfare system, but no specific pledges. The lengthy 1988 GOP platform made a number of specific welfare reform pledges. The change from 1984 to 1988 reflects the overall increase in specific commitments rather than a change in the GOP's substantive position on welfare issues.
53. 35. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health US (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1994), p. 239.
54. 36. Congressional Quarterly, Congress and the Nation 1989-1992 (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, 1993), pp. 671-75.
55. 37. Fishel, Presidents and Promises, pp. 97-103.
56. 38. On Carter's alienation from his party's ideological legacy, see Stephen Skowronek, "Presidential Leadership in Political Time," in The Presidency and the Political System, ed. Michael Nelson, 4th ed. (Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press, 1995), pp. 157-63.
57. 39. John Doble and Keith Melville, "The Public's Social Welfare Mandate," Public Opinion, 11 (January/February 1989): 45-59.
58. 40. U.S. News and World Report, "The Children's Hour" and "The Hollow Promise," U.S. News and World Report, November 7, 1988, pp. 34-44.
59. 41. Mark Wattier, "Platform Pledges and Campaign Communications: Developing and Discussing the 1988 Democratic Platform," Southeastern Political Review, 19 (1991): 170-92.
60. 42. On Bush's ideology, see George Edwards, "Evaluating the Bush Presidency: The Travails of a Tory," American Review of Politics, 14 (1993): 183-95; also, Charles Kolb, White House Daze: The Unmaking of Domestic Policy in the Bush Years (New York: Free Press, 1994).
61. 42. On Bush's ideology, see George Edwards, "Evaluating the Bush Presidency: The Travails of a Tory," American Review of Politics, 14 (1993): 183-95; also, Charles Kolb, White House Daze: The Unmaking of Domestic Policy in the Bush Years (New York: Free Press, 1994).
62. 43. Michael Duffy and Dan Goodgame, Marching in Place: The Status Quo Presidency of George Bush (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992), p. 60; see also Kolb, White House Daze.
63. 43. Michael Duffy and Dan Goodgame, Marching in Place: The Status Quo Presidency of George Bush (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992), p. 60; see also Kolb, White House Daze.
64. 44. Interestingly, some Republican pledges which seemed extreme in the Reagan years (for example, their 1984 pledge to allow public housing residents to buy their homes) were eventually accepted by some Democrats during Bush's term.
65. 45. Kolb, White House Daze, p. 24.
66. 46. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies.