Regional voting

Parliamentary Affairs

Volumn 50, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 641-657

  McAllister, Ian ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0031256556     PISSN: 00312290     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.pa.a028761     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. R.J. Johnson, C.J. Pattie and J.G. Allsopp, A Nation Dividing? The Electoral Map of Great Britain 1979-87 (London: Longman, 1988); J. Lewis and A. Townsend (eds), The North-South Divide (London: Chapman, 1989).
2. R.J. Johnson, C.J. Pattie and J.G. Allsopp, A Nation Dividing? The Electoral Map of Great Britain 1979-87 (London: Longman, 1988); J. Lewis and A. Townsend (eds), The North-South Divide (London: Chapman, 1989).
3. E. Spencer Wellhofer, Democracy, Capitalism and Empire in Late Victorian Britain, 1885-1910 (London: Macmillan, 1996).
4. W.H. Field, Regional Dynamics: The Basis of Electoral Support in Britain (London: Frank Cass, 1997).
5. J. Curtice and M. Steed, 'Electoral Choice and the Production of Government: The Changing Operation of the Electoral System in the United Kingdom Since 1955', British Journal of Political Science, 12 (1982); A.R. Bodman, 'Regional Trends in Electoral Support in Britain 1950-83', Professional Geographer, 37 (1985).
6. J. Curtice and M. Steed, 'Electoral Choice and the Production of Government: The Changing Operation of the Electoral System in the United Kingdom Since 1955', British Journal of Political Science, 12 (1982); A.R. Bodman, 'Regional Trends in Electoral Support in Britain 1950-83', Professional Geographer, 37 (1985).
7. P.J. Taylor, 'The Changing Geography of Representation in Britain', Area, 11 (1979).
8. R.J. Johnston, C.J. Pattie and J.G. Allsopp, A Nation Dividing (Longman, 1988).
9. I. Crewe, 'The Electorate: Partisan Dealignment Ten Years On', West European Politics, 6 (1983).
10. There are, of course, other ways in which to define regions. Using the standard regions plus Scotland and Wales has the advantage of producing units that are sufficiently large for analysis, as well as making the results comparable with other research which has used similar definitions.
11. I. McAllister and D. Studlar, 'Region and Voting in Britain, 1979-87: Territorial Polarization or Artifact?', American Journal of Political Science, 36 (1992).
12. M.N. Franklin, The Decline of Class Voting in Britain (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1985); R. Rose and I. McAllister, The Loyalties of Voters: A Lifetime Learning Model (London: Sage, 1990); B. Sarlvik and I. Crewe, Decade of Dealignment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983).
13. M.N. Franklin, The Decline of Class Voting in Britain (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1985); R. Rose and I. McAllister, The Loyalties of Voters: A Lifetime Learning Model (London: Sage, 1990); B. Sarlvik and I. Crewe, Decade of Dealignment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983).
14. M.N. Franklin, The Decline of Class Voting in Britain (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1985); R. Rose and I. McAllister, The Loyalties of Voters: A Lifetime Learning Model (London: Sage, 1990); B. Sarlvik and I. Crewe, Decade of Dealignment (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983).
15. R.J. Johnston and C.J. Pattie, 'Class Dealignment and the Regional Polarization of Voting Patterns in Great Britain, 1964-87', Political Geography, 11 (1992).
16. R. Huckfeldt, P.A. Beck, R.J. Dalton and J. Levine, 'Political Environments, Cohesive Social-Groups, and the Communication of Public-Opinion', American Journal of Political Science, 39 (1995); R.J. Johnston and C.J. Pattie, 'The Regional Impact of Thatcherism: Attitudes and Votes in Great Britain in the 1980s', Regional Studies, 24 (1990).
17. R. Huckfeldt, P.A. Beck, R.J. Dalton and J. Levine, 'Political Environments, Cohesive Social-Groups, and the Communication of Public-Opinion', American Journal of Political Science, 39 (1995); R.J. Johnston and C.J. Pattie, 'The Regional Impact of Thatcherism: Attitudes and Votes in Great Britain in the 1980s', Regional Studies, 24 (1990).
18. The numbers of constituencies in each of the regions and nations is as follows: South East, 117; East Anglia, 22; London, 74; South West, 51; West Midlands, 59; E. Midlands, 44; Yorkshire and Humberside, 56; North West, 70; North, 36; Wales, 40; Scotland, 72.
19. Johnston, Pattie and Allsopp, A Nation Dividing; C.J. Pattie and R.J. Johnston, 'It's Not Like That Round Here: Economic Evaluations and Voting in the 1992 British General Election', European Journal of Political Research, 28 (1996).
20. Johnston, Pattie and Allsopp, A Nation Dividing; C.J. Pattie and R.J. Johnston, 'It's Not Like That Round Here: Economic Evaluations and Voting in the 1992 British General Election', European Journal of Political Research, 28 (1996).
21. E.A. Fieldhouse, 'Thatcherism and the Changing Geography of Political Attitudes', Political Geography, 14 (1995).
22. The census variables used here were not available for the Scottish constituencies, which had to be excluded.
23. I. McAllister and R. Rose, The Nationwide Competition for Votes (London: Frances Pinter, 1984); I. McAllister and J. Kelley, 'Social Context and Electoral Behaviour in Britain', American Journal of Political Science, 29 (1985).
24. I. McAllister and R. Rose, The Nationwide Competition for Votes (London: Frances Pinter, 1984); I. McAllister and J. Kelley, 'Social Context and Electoral Behaviour in Britain', American Journal of Political Science, 29 (1985).
25. McAllister and Rose, The Nationwide Competition for Votes; I. McAllister and J. Kelley, 'Contextual Characteristics of Australian Federal Electorates', Australia and New Zealand Journal of Sociology, 19 (1983).
26. McAllister and Rose, The Nationwide Competition for Votes; I. McAllister and J. Kelley, 'Contextual Characteristics of Australian Federal Electorates', Australia and New Zealand Journal of Sociology, 19 (1983).
27. The six constituencies are: Brent North (41.5% non-white), Ealing Southall (47.3%), East Ham (48.5%), Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath (52.1%), Birmingham Ladywood (53.6%) and Brent South (55.2%). Bernie Grant's constituency of Tottenham records 38.3% non-white.
28. Z. Layton-Henry, The Politics of Immigration (Oxford: Blackwell, 1992).
29. I. McAllister and A. Mughan, 'Differential Turnout and Party Advantage in British General Elections, 1964-83', Electoral Studies, 5 (1986).
30. ns Familism -2.7 6.1 -3.2 Deprivation -5.6 5.8 -1.9 Manual -1.2 3.3 -2.0 R-squared .77 .70 .31
31. The calculation is the difference in turnout between Wales and Britain as a whole (71.6-73.5 =-1.9) multiplied by the impact of turnout on the Conservative vote (0.35*-1.9 = 0.67).
32. The calculation is 67.8-71.6 = 3.8. 3.8 * 0.40 = 1.52%.
33. Of the 22 constituencies where there was a Conservative incumbent and a Liberal Democrat candidate second and which fell into either the very, fairly or semi-marginal category, 12 were in the South West, 8 in the South East, 4 in the North West, 2 in London and 1 in the West Midlands.
34. The local election dates were as follows: London, 1994; Scotland and Wales, 1995; Metropolitans one-third each in 1994, 1995 and 1996; Counties, 1997; Districts and Unitaries were spread over 1994, 1995, 1996 and 1997.
35. The estimate is from a regression equation predicting the over or underprediction in the Liberal Democrat vote from variables measuring the leaders' visits, and dummy variables for region.