The Conservative campaign

Parliamentary Affairs

Volumn 50, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 542-554

  Whiteley, Paul ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0031256311     PISSN: 00312290     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.pa.a028754     Document Type: Article

References (13)

1. See W.L. Miller, H.D. Clarke, M. Harrop, L. LeDuc and P.F. Whiteley, How Voters Change: The 1987 British Election Campaign in Perspective (Oxford University Press, 1990), where this distinction was first introduced.
2. In the Gallup Political Index a question asking voters about the most important issue facing the country shows that the economy, particularly unemployment and inflation are easily the most salient issues in the minds of voters, something which has been true for decades.
3. See H.D. Clarke and M.C. Stewart, 'Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Reconsidered', British Journal of Political Science, 25/1995.
4. See P. Whiteley, 'Predicting the Labour Vote in 1983; Social Backgrounds versus Subjective Evaluations', Political Studies, 34/1986.
5. See H. Norpoth, Confidence Regained (University of Michigan Press, 1992), for a review of this literature applied to Britain.
6. See E. Scarborough, Political Ideology and Voting (Oxford University Press, 1984) and R. Rose and I. McAllister, Voters Begin to Choose (London: Sage, 1986).
7. See E. Scarborough, Political Ideology and Voting (Oxford University Press, 1984) and R. Rose and I. McAllister, Voters Begin to Choose (London: Sage, 1986).
8. H.D. Clarke, W. Mishler and P.F. Whiteley, 'Recapturing the Falklands: Models of Conservative Popularity 1979-1983', British Journal of Political Science, 20/1990.
9. D. Sanders, 'Economic Performance, Management Competence and the Outcome of the Next General Election', Political Studies, 44/1996.
10. This involves regressing Conservative vote intentions on party identification and leadership evaluations and then testing to see if the residuals of this model are stationary. A Dickey-Fuller test of the residuals shows that we can accept the hypothesis that they are stationary at the 0.01 level. Intuitively, this means that they move together in tandem over time and do not drift apart to any significant extent.
11. The coefficient is negative because a deviation from the equilibrium between the three variables is rapidly corrected, and hence has a negative impact on changes in voting support.
12. The various diagnostic tests indicate that the model is statistically well behaved and there is no autocorrelation or heteroskedasticity in the residuals.
13. See P.F. Whiteley, P. Seyd and J. Richardson, True Blues: The Politics of Conservative Party Membership (Clarendon Press, 1994), in which a prediction is made that the Conservative membership would fall to below 100,000 by the end of the century if nothing was done to turn it around.