Alternative projections of mortality and disability by cause 1990-2020: Global Burden of Disease Study

Lancet

Volumn 349, Issue 9064, 1997, Pages 1498-1504

  Murray, Christopher J L ^a   Lopez, Alan D ^b  

^a HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^b WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BATTLE INJURY; CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASE; CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE LUNG DISEASE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; DECISION MAKING; DEPRESSION; DIARRHEA; DISABILITY; EDUCATION; EPIDEMIOLOGY; EUROPE; FERTILITY; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; INJURY; ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE; LIFE EXPECTANCY; LOWER RESPIRATORY TRACT INFECTION; MATERNAL DISEASE; MEDICAL RESEARCH; MORTALITY; NUTRITIONAL DISORDER; PERINATAL MORBIDITY; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SEX DIFFERENCE; SMOKING; SOCIOECONOMICS; TOBACCO; TRAFFIC ACCIDENT; TRAINING; TUBERCULOSIS;

EID: 0031001720     PISSN: 01406736     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(96)07492-2     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Bezold C. Health care: thinking ahead. World Health Forum 1994; 15: 189-92.
2. Garrett M J. A way through the maze: what futurists do and how they do it. Futures 1993; 25: 254-74.
3. Taket A. Health futures in support of health for all: report of an international consultation convened by the World Health Organization, Geneva, 19-23 July, 1993. Geneva: WHO, 1993.
4. Ruwaard D, Kramers PGN, van den Berg Jeths A, Achterberg PW. Public health status and forecasts: the health status of the Dutch population over the period 1950-2010. Bilthoven: National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), 1994.
5. Murray CJL, Lopez AD, eds. The Global Burden of Disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1996.
6. Summers R, Heston A. The Penn World Tables (Mark 5.0): an expanded set of international comparisons 1950-1988. Q J Economics 1991; 106: 327-68.
7. Cleland JG, van Ginneken J. Maternal education and child survival in developing countries. Soc Sci Med 1988; 27: 1357-68.
8. Caldwell JC. Education as a factor in mortality decline: an examination of Nigerian data. Popul Stud 1979; 41: 5-30.
9. Barro RJ, Lee JW. Economic growth in a cross-section of countries: NBER working paper. Cambridge: NBER, 1993.
10. Peto R. Mortality from tobacco in developed countries: indirect estimation of national vital statistics. Lancet 1992; 339: 1268-78.
11. Acharya A, Murray CJL. An econometric model for forecasting age-and cause-specific mortality rates. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, 1996.
12. Preston SH. Mortality patterns in national populations. New York: Academic Press, 1976.
13. Bulutao R. Mortality by cause 1970-2015. In: Gribble JN, Preston SH, eds. The epidemiological transition: policy and planning implications for developing countries, workshop proceedings. Washington DC: National Academy Press, 1993.
14. Anderson RM, May RM. Epidemological parameters of HIV transmission. Nature 1988; 333: 514-19.
15. Anderson RM, May RM, Boily MC, Garnett GP, Rowley JT. The spread of HIV-1 in Africa: sexual contact patterns and the predicted demographic impact of AIDS. Nature 1991; 352: 581-89.
16. Anderson R. AIDS: trends, predictions, controversy. Nature 1993; 363: 393-94.
17. Brookmeyer R, Damiano A. Statistical methods for short-term projections of AIDS incidence. Stat Med 1989; 8: 23-24.
18. Karon J, Dondero T, Curran J. The projected incidence of AIDS and estimated prevalence of HIV infection in the United States. AIDS 1988; 1: 542-50.
19. Chin J, Lwanga S. Estimation and projection of adult AIDS cases: a simple epidemiological model. Bull World Health Organ 1991; 69: 399-406.
20. Chin J, Romenyi MA, Morrison F, Bulutao R. The global epidemiology of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and its projected demographic impact in Africa. World. Health Stat Q 1992; 45: 220-27.
21. Low-Beer D, Stoneburner R, Mertens T, Berkley S. HIV. In: Murray CJL, Lopez AD, eds. Health dimensions of sex and reproduction: the global burden of sexually transmitted diseases, HIV, maternal conditions, perinatal disorders, and congenital anomalies. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1996.
22. Bailey C. The mathematical theory of epidemics. London: Charles Griffin, 1957.
23. Anderson RM, May RM. Epidemiological parameters of HIV transmission. Nature 1988; 333: 514-19.
24. Kumaresan J, Raviglione MC, Murray CJL, Solomon J. Tuberculosis. In: Murray CJL, Lopez AD, eds. The global epidemiology of infectious diseases. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1996.
25. Hahn RA, Eberhardt S. Life expectancy in four US racial/ethnic populations: 1990. Epidemiology 1995; 6: 350-55.
26. Mesle F, Shkolnikov VM, Hertrich V, Vallin J. Tendances recentes de la mortalité par cause en Russie 1965-1994. Paris: INED Données Statistiques, 1996.