Markov processes, dynamic entropies and the statistical prediction of mesoscale weather regimes

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 49, Issue 1, 1997, Pages 108-118

  Nicolis, C ^a   Ebeling, W ^b   Baraldi, C ^a  

^a ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE OF BELGIUM   (Belgium)

^b HUMBOLDT UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE PREDICTION; MARKOV PROCESSES; WEATHER REGIME;

EID: 0030816131     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v49i1.12215     Document Type: Article

References (19)

1. Barry, R. G. and Perry, A. H. 1973. Synoptic climatology: methods and applications. Methuen and Co. Ltd., 555 pp.
2. Cheng, X. and Wallace, J.M. 1993. Cluster analysis of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime 500 h Pa height field: Spatial patterns. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 2647-2696.
3. De Swart, H. E. and Grasman, J. 1987. Effect of stochastic perturbations on a low-order spectral model of atmospheric circulation. Tellus 39A, 10-24.
4. Ebeling, W. and Nicolis, G. 1992. Word frequency and entropy of symbolic sequences: a dynamical Perspective. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2, 635-650.
5. Ebeling, W., Engel, A. and Feistel, R. 1990. Physik der Evolutionprozesse. Akademie-Verlag, Berlin.
6. Ebeling, W., Pöschel, T. and Albrecht, K.-F. 1995. Entropy, transinformation and word distribution of information-carrying sequences. Bifurcation and Chaos 5, 51-61.
7. Fraedrich, K. and Müller, K. 1982. On single station forecasting: sunshine and rainfall Markov chains. Beitr. Phys. Atmosph. 56, 108-134.
8. Gillespie, D.T. 1992. Markov processes. Academic Press, San Diego.
9. Hess, P. and Brezowsky, H. 1977. Katalog der Grosswetterlagen. Ber. Dtsch. Wetterdienstes. 113, 39 pp.
10. MacKernan, D. 1996. Statistical aspects of deterministic chaos. PhD dissertation, University of Brussels, Belgium.
11. Molteni, F. and Tibaldi, S. 1990. Regimes in the wintertime circulation over northern extratropics. Part II: Consequences for dynamical predictability. Q. J. Meteorol. Soc. 116, 1263-1288.
12. Nicolis, C. 1990. Chaotic dynamics, Markov processes and climate predictability. Tellus 42A, 401-412.
13. Nicolis, G. and Nicolis, C. 1988. Master equation approach to deterministic chaos. Phys. Rev. A38, 427-433.
14. Pöschel, T., Ebeling, W. and Rosé, H. 1995. Guessing probability distributions from small samples. J. Stat. Phys. 80, 1443-1451.
15. Schüepp, M. 1979. Witterungsklimatologie. Beiheft zu der Annalen des Schweizerischen Meteorologischen Anstalt, Zürich.
16. Spekat, A., Heller-Schulze, B. and Lutz, M. 1983. Über Grosswetterlagen und Markov-Ketten. Met. Tdsch. 36, 243-248.
17. Toth, Z. 1992. Quasi-stationary and transient periods in the northern hemisphere circulation series. J. Climate 5, 1235-1247.
18. Toth, Z. 1993. Preferred and unpreferred circulation types in the northern hemisphere wintertime phase space. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 2868-2888.
19. Tsironis, G.P. and Van den Broeck, C. 1988. First-passage times for nonlinear evolution in the presence of dichotomous noise. Phys. Rev. A38, 4362-4364.