Assessing uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses: Application to a complex decision model

Medical Decision Making

Volumn 17, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 390-401

  Parmigiani, Giovanni ^a   Samsa, Greg P ^a   Ancukiewicz, Marek ^a   Lipscomb, Joseph ^a   Hasselblad, Vic ^a   Matchar, David B ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

Cerebrovascular disease; Cost effectiveness analysis; Decision analysis; Simulation; Stochastic models; Stroke

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASE; COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS; DISEASE ASSOCIATION; HEALTH CARE POLICY; INFORMATION PROCESSING; MEDICAL DECISION MAKING; STROKE; TRANSIENT ISCHEMIC ATTACK;

BAYES THEOREM; CEREBROVASCULAR DISORDERS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; DECISION SUPPORT TECHNIQUES; HEALTH CARE COSTS; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; QUALITY-ADJUSTED LIFE YEARS;

EID: 0030754838     PISSN: 0272989X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9701700404     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Sloan F. Valuing Health Care, Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 1995.
2. Hodges JS. Uncertainty, policy analysis and statistics (with discussion). Statistical Science. 1987;2:259-91.
3. Gardiner J, Hogan A, Holmes-Rovner M, Rovner D, Griffith L, Kupersmith J. Confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios. Med Decis Making. 1995;15:254-63.
4. Bult JR, Hunink MGM, de Vries JA, Weinstein MC. A fully stochastic cost-effectiveness analysis. Proceedings of the Society for Medical Decision Making. 1995:415.
5. Manning WG, Fryback DG, Weinstein MC. Reflecting uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses. In: Gold MR, Siegel JE, Russell LB, Weinstein MC (eds) Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 1996.
6. O'Brien BJ, Drummond MF, Labelle RJ, Willan A. In search of power and significance: issues in the design and analysis of stochastic cost-effectiveness studies in health care. Med Care. 1994;32:150-63.
7. Mullahy J, Manning W. Statistical issues in cost-effectiveness analysis. In Sloan F (ed). Valuing Health Care. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 1995.
8. Siegel C, Laska E, Meisner M. Statistical methods for cost-effectiveness analyses. Controlled Clin Trials. 1996:17:387-406.
9. Matchar DB, Duncan P, Samsa G, et al. The Stroke Prevention Patient Outcomes Research Team: goals and methods. Stroke. 1993:24:2135-42.
10. Matchar DB, Samsa GP, Matthews JR et al. The stroke prevention policy model (SPPM): linking evidence and clinical decisions. Ann Intern Med. In press.
11. Bhat UN. Elements of Applied Stochastic Processes. New York: Wiley, 1984.
12. Wanek LA, Goradia TM, Elashoff RM, Morton DL. Multi-stage Markov analysis of progressive disease applied to melanoma. Biometrical Journal. 1993:35:967-83.
13. Gelman A, Carlin J, Stern H, Rubin DB. Bayesian Data Analysis. London, England: Chapman and Hall, 1995.
14. Berry DA. Statistics: A Bayesian Perspective. Belmont, MA: Duxbury, 1996.
15. Parmigiani G, Ancukiewicz M, Matchar DM. Decision models in medical guidelines development: the stroke prevention policy model. In Berry DA, Stangl D (eds). Bayesian Biostatistics. New York: Marcel Dekker, 1996.
16. Efron B, Tibshirani RJ. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. London, England: Chapman and Hall, 1993.
17. Rubin DB. The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics. 1981; 9:130-4.
18. Monahan JF, Boos DD. Bootstrap methods using prior information. Biometrika. 1986:73:271-8.
19. Newton MA, Raftery AE. Approximate Bayesian inference with the weighted likelihood bootstrap (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. 1994:56:3-26.
20. Efron B. Why isn't everyone a Bayesian? (with discussion). The American Statistician. 1986;40:1-10.
21. Rankin J. Cerebral vascular accidents in patients over age 60. 2. Prognosis. Scottish Med J. 1957;2:200-15.
22. McCrory DC, Goldstein LB, Samsa GP, et al. Predicting complications of carotid endarterectomy. Stroke. 1993:24:1285-91.
23. Matchar DB, McCrory DC, Barnett JM, Feussner JR. Medical treatment for stroke prevention. Ann Intern Med. 1994:121: 41-53.
24. Goldstein LB, Matchar DB. Clinical assessment in the evaluation of stroke. JAMA. 1994:271:1114-20.
25. Blakeley DD, Oddone EZ, Hasselblad V, Simel DL, Matchar DB. Non invasive carotid artery testing: a statistical overview. Ann Intern Med. 1995:112:360-7.
26. Lipscomb J, Ancukiewicz M, Parmigiani G, Hasselblad V, Samsa GP, Matchar DB. Predicting the cost of illness: a comparison of alternative models applied to stroke (submitted).
27. Samsa GP, Matchar DB, Bonito A, et al. Quality of life with stroke: results from a nationally diverse survey of persons at increased risk of stroke. Proceedings of the Society for General Internal Medicine, Washington, DC, 1996.
28. Draper D. Assessment and propagation of model uncertainty (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series B. 1994;56:45-98.
29. Raftery AE, Madigan DM, Volinsky CT. Accounting for model uncertainty in survival analysis improves predictive performance (with discussion). In Bernardo JM, Berger JO, Dawid AP, Smith AFM (eds). Bayesian Statistics 5. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 1995.