Market transition, government policies, and interprovincial migration in China: 1983-1988

Economic Development and Cultural Change

Volumn 45, Issue 2, 1997, Pages 320-339

  Liang, Zai ^a   White, Michael J ^b  

^a CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^b BROWN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEVELOPING COUNTRY; ECONOMIC REFORM; FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT; FOREIGN INVESTMENT; INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION; INTERREGIONAL MIGRATION; MIGRATION DETERMINANTS; MIGRATION FACTOR; RURAL ENTERPRISE; RURAL INDUSTRIALISATION;

CHINA;

EID: 0030694808     PISSN: 00130079     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/452276     Document Type: Review

References (55)

1. Victor Nee, "Social Inequalities in Reforming State Socialism: Between Redistribution and Markets in China," American Sociological Review 56 (1991): 267-82; and Andrew G. Walder, "Economic Reform and Income Inequality in Tianjin, 1976-1986," in Chinese Society on the Eve of Tiananmen, ed. Deborah Davis and Ezra Vogel, Harvard Contemporary China Series (Cambridge, Mass.: Council on East Asian Studies, Harvard University, 1990), pp. 135-56.
2. Victor Nee, "Social Inequalities in Reforming State Socialism: Between Redistribution and Markets in China," American Sociological Review 56 (1991): 267-82; and Andrew G. Walder, "Economic Reform and Income Inequality in Tianjin, 1976-1986," in Chinese Society on the Eve of Tiananmen, ed. Deborah Davis and Ezra Vogel, Harvard Contemporary China Series (Cambridge, Mass.: Council on East Asian Studies, Harvard University, 1990), pp. 135-56.
3. Yusheng Peng, "Wage Determinants in Rural and Urban Industrial China," American Sociological Review 57 (1992): 198-213.
4. Alice Goldstein, Sidney Goldstein, and Shenyang Guo, "Temporary Migrants in Shanghai Households, 1984," Demography 28 (1991): 275-91.
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7. D. Gale Johnson, "Economic Reforms in the People's Republic of China," and Justin Yifu Lin, "The Household Responsibility System in China's Agricultural Reform: A Theoretical and Empirical Study," Economic Development and Cultural Change 36, suppl. (1988): S225-S245, S199-S224.
8. Depending on the types of rural enterprises, the tax privileges include tax exemption and tax reduction. The government also provides loans to rural enterprises; see Zhongguo xiangzhen qiye nianjian bianji weiyuanhui, Zhongguo xiangzhen qiye nianjian (China rural enterprise yearbook) (Beijing: China Agricultural Publishing House, 1990). In addition, both provincial and central governments set up departments or bureaus to foster rural enterprises.
9. Zhonguo guojia tongjiju (China State Statistical Bureau), Zhongguo tongji nianjian (Statistical yearbook of China) (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1993).
10. See Grant Blank and William L. Parish, "Rural Industry and Non-farm Employment: Comparative Perspectives," in Chinese Urban Reform: What Model Now? ed. R. Yin-Wang Kwok et al. (New York: Sharpe, 1990); and Sidney Goldstein, Urbanization in China: New Insights from the 1982 Census, Papers of the East-West Population Institute, no. 93 (Honolulu: East-West Center, 1985).
11. See Grant Blank and William L. Parish, "Rural Industry and Non-farm Employment: Comparative Perspectives," in Chinese Urban Reform: What Model Now? ed. R. Yin-Wang Kwok et al. (New York: Sharpe, 1990); and Sidney Goldstein, Urbanization in China: New Insights from the 1982 Census, Papers of the East-West Population Institute, no. 93 (Honolulu: East-West Center, 1985).
12. Nazli Baydar, Michael J. White, Charles Simkins, and Ozer Babakol, "Effects of Agricultural Development Policies on Migration in Peninsular Malaysia," Demography 27 (1990): 97-109; Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz, "Can Border Industrialization Be a Substitute for Immigration?" American Economic Review 76 (1986): 263-73; and Sally E. Findley, "Rural Development Programs: Planned versus Actual Migration Outcomes," Brown University Reprint Ser. 82-09 (1981).
13. Nazli Baydar, Michael J. White, Charles Simkins, and Ozer Babakol, "Effects of Agricultural Development Policies on Migration in Peninsular Malaysia," Demography 27 (1990): 97-109; Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz, "Can Border Industrialization Be a Substitute for Immigration?" American Economic Review 76 (1986): 263-73; and Sally E. Findley, "Rural Development Programs: Planned versus Actual Migration Outcomes," Brown University Reprint Ser. 82-09 (1981).
14. Nazli Baydar, Michael J. White, Charles Simkins, and Ozer Babakol, "Effects of Agricultural Development Policies on Migration in Peninsular Malaysia," Demography 27 (1990): 97-109; Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz, "Can Border Industrialization Be a Substitute for Immigration?" American Economic Review 76 (1986): 263-73; and Sally E. Findley, "Rural Development Programs: Planned versus Actual Migration Outcomes," Brown University Reprint Ser. 82-09 (1981).
15. Nee (n. 1 above).
16. Zhonguo guojia tongjiju (China State Statistical Bureau), Zhongguo tongji nianjian (Statistical yearbook of China) (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1987).
17. There is an alternative argument that suggests that, for the case of international migration, foreign investment actually increases emigration. Saskia Sassen draws on examples of emigration from South Korea, Hong Kong, and the Philippines to the United States to argue this point. See Saskia Sassen, The Mobility of Labor and Capital: A Study in International Investment and Labor Flow (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988).
18. Li Menghua, "Zhongguo renkou qianyi de liuxiang" (The direction of population migration in China), Renkou yanjiu 18 (1994): 48-51.
19. Sidney Goldstein, "Urbanization in China: Effects of Migration and Reclassification," Population and Development Review 16 (1990): 673-701.
20. Ellen Efron Pimentel and Liu Jinyun, "Causes of Interprovincial Migration in China" (paper presented at the International Seminar on the 1990 Chinese Census, Beijing, October 19-23, 1992).
21. Michael J. White and Peter R. Mueser, "Implications of Boundary Choice for the Measurement of Residential Mobility," Demography 25 (1988): 443-59.
22. Daniel T. Lichter and Gordon F. De Jong, "The United States," in International Handbook on Internal Migration, ed. Charles B. Nam, William J. Serow, and David F. Sly (New York: Greenwood, 1990).
23. See Guojia jihua shengyu weiyuanhui (State Family Planning Commission), Zhongguo shengyu jieyu choyang diaocha (China fertility and birth control survey) (Beijing: State Family Planning Commission, 1988); and William Lavely, "China Unveils Its Monumental Two per Thousand Fertility Survey," Asian and Pacific Population Forum 5 (1991): 89-92, 116.
24. See Guojia jihua shengyu weiyuanhui (State Family Planning Commission), Zhongguo shengyu jieyu choyang diaocha (China fertility and birth control survey) (Beijing: State Family Planning Commission, 1988); and William Lavely, "China Unveils Its Monumental Two per Thousand Fertility Survey," Asian and Pacific Population Forum 5 (1991): 89-92, 116.
25. Li Honggui, "Overview of China Fertility and Birth Control Survey" (paper presented at the International Seminar on China Fertility and Birth Control Survey, Beijing, 1991).
26. Both the China 1987 1/100 Population Survey and the China 1990 Population Census miss many temporary migrants. The former uses 6 months as the minimum duration for nonregistered individuals to be counted as resident at destination; the latter uses 1 year as the standard. Our data, however, are able to capture these missed temporary migrants.
27. The following variables are taken from Dudley Poston and Baochang Gu: population size, per capita industrial productivity, and total literacy rate - all measured in 1982. See Dudley Poston and Baochang Gu, "Socioeconomic Development, Family Planning, and Fertility in China," Demography 24 (1987): 531-51. Foreign capital investment by province in 1985 was taken from the China Statistical Yearbook (1985) and the first year complete information on foreign capital investment by province is 1985. Information regarding rural enterprises in 1985 is also obtained from China Statistical Yearbook (1985). See also Zhongguo guojia tongjiju (China State Statistical Bureau), Zhongguo tongji nianjian (Statistical yearbook of China), (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1985, 1987, 1990); Zhongguo geshengshi zizhiqu zhixiashi lishi ziliao (Historical statistics of province, autonomous regions, and municipalities, 1949-1989) (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1990).
28. The following variables are taken from Dudley Poston and Baochang Gu: population size, per capita industrial productivity, and total literacy rate - all measured in 1982. See Dudley Poston and Baochang Gu, "Socioeconomic Development, Family Planning, and Fertility in China," Demography 24 (1987): 531-51. Foreign capital investment by province in 1985 was taken from the China Statistical Yearbook (1985) and the first year complete information on foreign capital investment by province is 1985. Information regarding rural enterprises in 1985 is also obtained from China Statistical Yearbook (1985). See also Zhongguo guojia tongjiju (China State Statistical Bureau), Zhongguo tongji nianjian (Statistical yearbook of China), (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1985, 1987, 1990); Zhongguo geshengshi zizhiqu zhixiashi lishi ziliao (Historical statistics of province, autonomous regions, and municipalities, 1949-1989) (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1990).
29. The following variables are taken from Dudley Poston and Baochang Gu: population size, per capita industrial productivity, and total literacy rate - all measured in 1982. See Dudley Poston and Baochang Gu, "Socioeconomic Development, Family Planning, and Fertility in China," Demography 24 (1987): 531-51. Foreign capital investment by province in 1985 was taken from the China Statistical Yearbook (1985) and the first year complete information on foreign capital investment by province is 1985. Information regarding rural enterprises in 1985 is also obtained from China Statistical Yearbook (1985). See also Zhongguo guojia tongjiju (China State Statistical Bureau), Zhongguo tongji nianjian (Statistical yearbook of China), (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1985, 1987, 1990); Zhongguo geshengshi zizhiqu zhixiashi lishi ziliao (Historical statistics of province, autonomous regions, and municipalities, 1949-1989) (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1990).
30. Michael J. White, "Three Models of Net Metropolitan Migration," Review of Regional Studies 7 (1977): 20-44.
31. William A. V. Clark, Human Migration (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1986).
32. Lichter and De Jong.
33. Griffith Feeney and Wang Feng, "Parity Progression and Birth Intervals in China: The Influence of Policy in Hastening Fertility Decline," Population and Development Review 19 (1993): 61-101.
34. See Sally E. Findley, "An Interactive Contextual Model of Migration in Ilocos Norte, the Philippines," Demography 24 (1987): 163-90; and Douglas S. Massey, Rafael Alarcon, Jorge Durand, and Humberto Gonzalez, Return to Aztlan: The Social Process of International Migration from Western Mexico (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1987).
35. See Sally E. Findley, "An Interactive Contextual Model of Migration in Ilocos Norte, the Philippines," Demography 24 (1987): 163-90; and Douglas S. Massey, Rafael Alarcon, Jorge Durand, and Humberto Gonzalez, Return to Aztlan: The Social Process of International Migration from Western Mexico (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1987).
36. G. S. Maddala, Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1983); Saul D. Hoffman and Greg J. Duncan, "Multinomial and Conditional Logit Discrete-Choice Models in Demography," Demography 25 (1988): 415-27.
37. G. S. Maddala, Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1983); Saul D. Hoffman and Greg J. Duncan, "Multinomial and Conditional Logit Discrete-Choice Models in Demography," Demography 25 (1988): 415-27.
38. Hoffman and Duncan.
39. Peter R. Mueser and Michael J. White, "Explaining the Association between Rates of In-Migration and Out-Migration," Papers of the Regional Science Association 67 (1989): 121-34.
40. Population Census Office of Beijing Municipality, Tabulation on the 1990 Population Census of Beijing Municipality (computer tabulation) (Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1992).
41. "Circular migrant" (commonly known as the "floating population") refers to someone who lives in a locale less than 6 months and has not changed permanent residence.
42. One reviewer raised the issue of whether migrants who reported "other" for reason of migration differ significantly from people who gave concrete reasons for migration. A one-way analysis of variance showed that migrants in this residual category are older than the remaining migrants, but their educational level and year of migration are about the same. To further ensure that inclusion of these "other" migrants does not bias our results, we estimated all statistical models (both out-migration and in-migration models) without this group of migrants. The results are almost identical.
43. Judith Banister, "Provincial Population Size and Interprovincial Migration," in The Population of Modern China, ed. Dudley L. Poston, Jr., and David Yaukey (New York: Plenum, 1992).
44. Consistent with previous researchers (see White [n. 23 above]), we argue that per capita industrial output is a measure of the economic base of a province, which determines the employment opportunities. Following the suggestion of one reviewer, we reestimated all statistical models using per capita income instead of per capita industrial output in a province. We used three measures of income: per capita rural income, per capita urban income, and per capita total income (a weighted average of per capita rural and urban income). The results from out-migration models are almost identical to those in this article. The results from in-migration models changed only slightly. Overall, we are convinced that using per capita income in the model does not change our substantive conclusions. The details of all these alternative models are available from us on request.
45. Hoffman and Duncan.
46. We also tried another measure of rural enterprise by using the total number of rural enterprises in each province and adding an interaction term between the number of rural enterprises in the province and the education-level dummy variable; the results are very similar.
47. Rivera-Batiz (n. 10 above).
48. Douglas S. Massey, "Economic Development and International Migration in Comparative Perspective," Population and Development Review 14 (1988): 383-414.
49. Xiushi Yang, "The New Economic Policy and Spatial Mobility in China" (paper presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America, Miami, May 5-7, 1994).
50. See John Bauer, "Demographic Change and Asian Labor Markets," Population and Development Review 16 (1990): 615-45; and Michael Douglas, "Surplus Labor, Rural-Urban Relations and Urban Policy in China" (paper presented at the International Conference on China's Urbanization, East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, Honolulu, January 15-27, 1989).
51. See John Bauer, "Demographic Change and Asian Labor Markets," Population and Development Review 16 (1990): 615-45; and Michael Douglas, "Surplus Labor, Rural-Urban Relations and Urban Policy in China" (paper presented at the International Conference on China's Urbanization, East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, Honolulu, January 15-27, 1989).
52. Rivera-Batiz.
53. Fei Hsiao Tung, Small Towns in China: Functions, Problems, and Prospects (Beijing: New World, 1986).
54. Goldstein, Urbanization in China (n. 9 above).
55. Zhang Jianjun, "Basheng liewei nongcun laodongli jiuye shidian" (Eight provinces became designated sites for experiment on employment for rural surplus labor), Renmin rebao haiwaiban (People's daily), overseas ed. (May 6, 1993).