An empirically based model for latitudinal gradient in vole population dynamics

American Naturalist

Volumn 149, Issue 5, 1997, Pages 842-874

  Turchin, Peter ^a   Hanski, Ilkka ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

LATITUDINAL GRADIENT; MODELLING; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION FLUCTUATION; PREDATOR-PREY INTERACTION; VOLE;

EUROPE;

EID: 0030620326     PISSN: 00030147     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/286027     Document Type: Article

References (86)

1. Akcakaya, H. R. 1992. Population cycles of mammals: evidence for a ratio-dependent predation hypothesis. Ecological Monographs 62:119-142.
2. Andersson, M., and S. Erlinge. 1977. Influence of predation on rodent populations. Oikos 29:591-597.
3. Angelstam, P., E. Lindström, and P. Widén. 1984. Role of predators in short-term fluctuations of some birds and mammals in Fennoscandia. Oecologia (Berlin) 62:199-208.
4. Batzli, G. O., R. G. White, S. F. MacLean, F. A. Pitelka, and B. D. Collier. 1980. The herbivore-based trophic system. Pages 335-410 in J. Brown, P. C. Miller, L. L. Tierzen, and F. L. Bunnell, eds. An arctic ecosystem: the coastal tundra at Barrow, Alaska. Dowden, Hutchinson & Ross, Stroudsburg, Pa.
5. Berryman, A. A., A. P. Gutierrez, and R. Arditi. 1995. Credible, parsimonious and useful predatorprey models: a reply to Abrams, Gleeson, and Sarnelle. Ecology 76:1980-1985.
6. Boonstra, R. 1994. Population cycles in microtines: the senescence hypothesis. Evolutionary Ecology 8:196-219.
7. Burden, R. L., J. D. Faires, and A. C. Reynolds. 1981. Numerical analysis. 2d ed. Prindle, Weber, & Schmidt, Boston.
8. Caughley, G., and J. Lawton. 1981. Plant-herbivore systems. Pages 132-166 in R. M. May, ed. Theoretical ecology. 2d ed. Sinauer, Sunderland, Mass.
9. Chernyavsky, F. B., and A. V. Tkachev. 1982. Population cycles of lemmings in the Arctic: ecological and endocrine aspects [in Russian]. Nauka, Moscow.
10. Chitty, D. 1960. Population processes in the vole and their relevance to general theory. Canadian Journal of Zoology 38:99-113.
11. Ellner, S., and P. Turchin. 1995. Chaos in a noisy world: new methods and evidence from time series analysis. American Naturalist 145:343-375.
12. Elton, C. S. 1924. Periodic fluctuations in the number of animals: their causes and effects. British Journal of Experimental Biology 2:119-163.
13. _. 1942. Voles, mice and lemmings: problems in population dynamics. Oxford: Clarendon.
14. Erlinge, S. 1974. Distribution, territoriality and numbers of the weasel (Mustela nivalis) in relation to prey abundance. Oikos 25:378-384.
15. _. 1975. Feeding habits of the weasel Mustela nivalis in relation to prey abundance. Oikos 26:378-384.
16. Erlinge, S., G. Goransson, L. Hansson, G. Hogstedt, O. Liberg, I. N. Nilsson, T. von Schantz, and M. Sylven. 1983. Predation as a regulating factor on small rodent populations in southern Sweden. Oikos 40:36-52.
17. Erlinge, S., G. Goransson, G. Hogstedt, G. Jansson, O. Liberg, J. Loman, I. N. Nilsson, T. von Schantz, and M. Sylven. 1984. Can vertebrate predators regulate their prey? American Naturalist 123:125-133.
18. Fitzgerald, B. M. 1977. Weasel predation on a cyclic population of the montane vole Microtus montanus in California. Journal of Animal Ecology 46:367-397.
19. Gaines, M. S., N. C. Stenseth, M. L. Johnson, R. A. Ims, and S. Bondrup-Nielsen. 1991. A response to solving the enigma of population cycles with a multifactorial perspective. Journal of Mammalogy 72:627-631.
20. Gillingham, B. J. 1984. Meal size and feeding rate in the least weasel (Mustela nivalis). Journal of Mammology 65:517-519.
21. Hanski, I. 1991. The functional response of predators: worries about scale. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 6:141-142.
22. Hanski, I., and H. Henttonen. 1996. Predation on competing rodent species: a simple explanation of complex patterns. Journal of Animal Ecology 65:220-232.
23. Hanski, I., and E. Korpimäki. 1995. Microtine rodent dynamics in northern Europe: parameterized models for the predator-prey interaction. Ecology 76:840-850.
24. Hanski, I., L. Hansson, and H. Henttonen. 1991. Specialist predators, generalist predators, and the microtine rodent cycle. Journal of Animal Ecology 60:353-367.
25. Hanski, I., P. Turchin, E. Korpimäki, and H. Henttonen. 1993. Population oscillations of boreal rodents: regulation by mustelid predators leads to chaos. Nature (London) 364:232-235.
26. Hanski, I., H. Henttonen, and L. Hansson. 1994. Temporal variability and geographic patterns in the population density of microtine rodents: a reply to Xia and Boonstra. American Naturalist 144:329-342.
27. Hansson, L. 1971. Habitat, food and population dynamics of the field vole Microtus agrestis (L.) in southern Sweden. Viltrevy 8:267-378.
28. Hansson, L., and H. Henttonen. 1985. Gradients in density variations of small rodents: the importance of latitude and snow cover. Oecologia (Berlin) 67:394-402.
29. _. 1988. Rodent dynamics as a community processes. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 3:195-200.
30. Hassell, M. P. 1978. The dynamics of arthropod predator-prey systems. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
31. Heikkila, J., A. Below, and I. Hanski. 1994. Synchronous dynamics of microtine rodent populations on islands in lake Inari in northern Fennoscandia: evidence for regulation by mustelid predators. Oikos 70:245-252.
32. Henttonen, H., J. Tast, J. Viitala, and A. Kaikusalo. 1984. Ecology of cyclic rodents in northern Finland. Memoranda of the Society of Fauna and Flora Fennica 60:84-92.
33. Henttonen, H., A. D. McGuire, and L. Hansson. 1985. Comparisons of amplitudes and frequencies (spectral analyses) of density variations in long-term data sets of Clethrionomys species. Annales Zoologici Fennici 22:221-228.
34. Henttonen, H., T. Oksanen, A. Jortikka, and V. Haukisalmi. 1987. How much do weasels shape microtine cycles in the northern Fennoscandian taiga? Oikos 50:353-365.
35. Holling, C. S. 1965. The functional response of predators to prey density and its role in mimicry and population regulation. Memoirs of the Entomological Society of Canada 45:5-60.
36. Hörnfeldt, B. 1994. Delayed density dependence as a determinant of vole cycles. Ecology 75:791-806.
37. Ivankina, E. V. 1987. Numerical dynamics and population structure of bank vole near Moscow. Ph.D. diss. Moscow University, Moscow.
38. Ivanter, E. V. 1981. Population dynamics [in Russian]. Pages 245-267 in N. V. Bashenina, ed. The European red vole. Nauka, Moscow.
39. Jedrzejewska, B., and W. Jedrzejewski. 1989. Seasonal surplus killing as hunting strategy of the weasel Mustela nivalis: test of a hypothesis. Acta Theriologica 34,25:347-359.
40. _. 1990. Antipredatory behaviour of bank voles and prey choice of weasels: enclosure experiments. Annales Zoologici Fennici 27:321-328.
41. King, C. M. 1975. The home range of the weasel (Mustela nivalis) in an English woodland. Journal of Animal Ecology 44:639-668.
42. _. 1989. The natural history of weasels and stoats. Comstock, Ithaca, N.Y.
43. Korpimäki, E. 1994. Rapid or delayed tracking of multi-annual vole cycles by avian predators? Journal of Animal Ecology 63:619-628.
44. Korpimäki, E., and K. Norrdahl. 1989a. Avian predation on mustelids in Europe. I. Occurrence and effects on body size variation and life traits. Oikos 55:202-215.
45. _. 1989b. Avian predation on mustelids in Europe. II. Impact on small mustelid and microtine dynamics: a hypothesis. Oikos 55:273-276.
46. _. 1989c. Predation of Tengmalm's owls: numerical responses, functional responses and dampening impact on population fluctuations of microtines. Oikos 54:154-164.
47. _. 1991a. Do breeding avian predators dampen population fluctuations of small mammals? Oikos 62:195-208.
48. _. 1991b. Numerical and functional responses of kestrels, short-eared owls, and long-eared owls to vole densities. Ecology 72:814-826.
49. Korpimäki, E., K. Norrdahl, and T. Rinta-Jaskari. 1991. Responses of stoats and least weasels to fluctuating food abundances: is the low phase of the vole cycle due to mustelid predation? Oecologia (Berlin) 88:552-561.
50. Koshkina, T. V. 1966. On the periodical changes in the numbers of voles (as exemplified by the Kola Peninsula) [in Russian]. Bulletin of the Moscow Society of Naturalists, Biological Section 71:14-26.
51. _. 1970. On population dynamics of the lemming. Fauna i Ekologiya Gryzunov 9:11-61.
52. Krebs C. J. 1964. The lemming cycle at Baker Lake, Northwest Territories, during 1959-1962. Arctic Institute of North America, technical paper 15, Montreal.
53. _. 1991. The experimental paradigm and long-term population studies. Ibis 133(Suppl.):3-8.
54. Krebs, C. J., and J. H. Myers. 1974. Population cycles in small mammals. Advances in Ecological Research 8:267-399.
55. Laine, K., and H. Henttonen. 1983. The role of plant production in microtine cycles in northern Fennoscandia. Oikos 40:407-415.
56. Leslie, P. H. 1948. Some further notes on the use of matrices in population mathematics. Biometrika 325:213-245.
57. Lewontin, R. C. 1966. On the measurement of relative variability. Systematic Zoology 15:141-142.
58. Lidicker, W. Z. 1978. Regulation of numbers in small mammal populations: historical reflections and a synthesis. Pages 122-141 in D. P. Snyder, ed. Population of small mammals under natural conditions. Special publication series, Pymatuning Laboratory of Ecology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh.
59. _. 1988. Solving the enigma of microtine cycles. Journal of Mammology 69:229-239.
60. _. 1991. In defense of a multifactorial perspective in population ecology. Journal of Mammology 72:631-635.
61. Lindström, E. R., H. Andrén, P. Angelstam, G. Cederlund, B. Hörnfeldt, L. Jäderberg, P. A. Lemnell, B. Martinsson, K. Sköld, and J. E. Swenson. 1994. Disease reveals the predator: sarcoptic mange, red fox predation, and prey populations. Ecology 75:1042-1049.
62. Lockie, J. D. 1966. Territory of small carnivores. Symposia of the Zoological Society of London 18:143-165.
63. Lomnicki, A. 1995. Why do populations of small rodents cycle? a new hypothesis with numerical model. Evolutionary Ecology 9:64-81.
64. MacLean, S. F., B. M. Fitzgerald, and F. Pitelka. 1974. Population cycles in arctic lemmings: winter reproduction and predation by weasels. Arctic and Alpine Research 6:1-12.
65. May, R. M. 1973. Stability and complexity in model ecosystems. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
66. Myllimäki, A. 1977. Demographic mechanisms in the fluctuating populations of the field vole Microtus agrestis. Oikos 29:468-493.
67. Nicholson, A. J., and V. A. Bailey. 1935. The balance of animal populations. Proceedings of the Zoological Society of London 3:551-598.
68. Norrdahl, K., and E. Korpimäki. 1995. Mortality factors in a cyclic vole population. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B, Biological Sciences 261:49-53.
69. Pearson, O. P. 1971. Additional measurements of the impact of carnivores on California voles (Microtus californicus). Journal of Mammology 52:41-49.
70. Pucek, Z., W. Jedrzejewski, B. Jedrzejewska, and M. Pucek. 1993. Rodent population dynamics in a primeveal deciduous forest (Bialowieza National Park) in relation to weather, seed crop, and predation. Acta Theriologica 38:199-232.
71. Rosenzweig, M. L. 1971. Paradox of enrichment: destabilization of exploitation ecosystems in ecological time. Science (Washington, D.C.) 171:385-387.
72. Southern, H. N. 1979. The stability and instability of small mammal populations. Pages 103-134 in D. M. Stoddard, ed. Ecology of small mammals. Chapman & Hall, London.
73. Stenseth, N. C., and E. Framstad. 1980. Reproductive effort and optimal reproductive rates in small rodents. Oikos 34:23-34.
74. Stenseth, N. C., and R. A. Ims. 1993. Population dynamics of lemmings: temporal and spatial variation: an introduction. Pages 61-91 in N. C. Stenseth and R. A. Ims, ed. The biology of lemmings. Linnean Society, London.
75. Stenseth, N. C., and W. Z. Lidicker, eds. 1992. Animal dispersal: small mammals as a model. Chapman & Hall, London.
76. Taitt, M. J., and C. J. Krebs. 1985. Population dynamics and cycles. Pages 567-620 in R. H. Tamarin, ed. Biology of the New World Microtus. American Society of Mammalogists, Shippenburg, Pa.
77. Tanner, J. T. 1975. The stability and the intrinsic growth rates of prey and predator populations. Ecology 56:855-867.
78. Tapper, S. C. 1979. The effect of fluctuating vole numbers (Microtus agrestis) on a population of weasels (Mustela nivalis) on farmland. Journal of Animal Ecology 48:603-617.
79. Ternovsky, D. V. 1977. Biology of Mustelids [in Russian]. Nauka, Novosibirsk, Russia.
80. Tumanov, I. L., and V. A. Smelov. 1980. Trophic links of mustelids in northwest Russia. Zoologicheskiy Zhumal 59:1536-1543.
81. Turchin, P. 1993. Chaos and stability in rodent population dynamics: evidence from nonlinear time-series analysis. Oikos 68:167-172.
82. _. 1997. Nonlinear time-series modeling of vole population fluctuations. Researches on Population Ecology (Kyoto) 38:121-132.
83. Turchin, P., and R. Ostfeld. 1997. Effects of density and season on the population rate of change in the meadow vole. Oikos 78:355-361.
84. Volterra, V. 1931. Leçons sur la théorie mathematique de la lutte pour la vie. Gauthier-Villars, Paris.
85. Walters, C. J., and D. Ludwig. 1981. Effects of measurement errors on the assessment of stock-recruitment relationships. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 38:704-710.
86. Wolf, A., J. B. Swift, H. L. Swinney, and J. A. Vastano. 1985. Determining Lyapunov exponents from a time series. Physica D 16:285-317.