메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 34, Issue 2, 1996, Pages 276-295

The bias towards zero in aggregate perceptions: An explanation based on rationally calculating individuals

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords


EID: 0030531985     PISSN: 00952583     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.1996.tb01378.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (14)

References (46)
  • 1
    • 84978559324 scopus 로고
    • Can small deviations from rationality make significant differences to economic equilibria?
    • September
    • Akerlof, George A., and Janet L. Yellen. "Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria?" American Economic Review, September 1985, 708-20.
    • (1985) American Economic Review , pp. 708-720
    • Akerlof, G.A.1    Yellen, J.L.2
  • 2
    • 0002348551 scopus 로고
    • Political parties and the business cycle in the U.S. 1948-1984
    • February
    • Alesina, Alberto, and Jeffery Sachs. "Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the U.S. 1948-1984." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February 1988, 63-82.
    • (1988) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , pp. 63-82
    • Alesina, A.1    Sachs, J.2
  • 3
    • 0002061457 scopus 로고
    • The federal reserve and the electoral cycle
    • February
    • Allen, Stuart D. "The Federal Reserve and the Electoral Cycle." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February 1986, 88-94.
    • (1986) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , pp. 88-94
    • Allen, S.D.1
  • 4
    • 84970399879 scopus 로고
    • The political business cycle: How significant?
    • January
    • Allen, Stuart D., Joseph M. Sulock, and William A. Sabo. "The Political Business Cycle: How Significant?" Public Finance Quarterly, January 1986, 107-112.
    • (1986) Public Finance Quarterly , pp. 107-112
    • Allen, S.D.1    Sulock, J.M.2    Sabo, W.A.3
  • 6
    • 85005096970 scopus 로고
    • The fed and the political business cycle
    • April
    • Beck, Nathaniel. "The Fed and the Political Business Cycle." Contemporary Policy Issues, April 1991, 25-38.
    • (1991) Contemporary Policy Issues , pp. 25-38
    • Beck, N.1
  • 7
    • 21344439521 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Legislator voting and shirking: A critical review of the literature
    • forthcoming
    • Bender, Bruce, and John R. Lott, Jr. "Legislator Voting and Shirking: A Critical Review of the Literature." Public Choice, forthcoming 1996.
    • (1996) Public Choice
    • Bender, B.1    Lott J.R., Jr.2
  • 10
    • 84936823544 scopus 로고
    • How big is the random walk in GNP?
    • October
    • Cochrane, John. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?" Journal of Political Economy, October 1988, 893-920.
    • (1988) Journal of Political Economy , pp. 893-920
    • Cochrane, J.1
  • 11
    • 0001674807 scopus 로고
    • Rational expectations and Bayesian analysis
    • May/June
    • Cyert, Richard M., and Morris H. DeGroot. "Rational Expectations and Bayesian Analysis." Journal of Political Economy, May/June 1974, 521-36.
    • (1974) Journal of Political Economy , pp. 521-536
    • Cyert, R.M.1    DeGroot, M.H.2
  • 13
    • 0002363909 scopus 로고
    • Rational expectations and learning from experience
    • February
    • DeCanio, Stephen. "Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience." Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 1979, 47-57.
    • (1979) Quarterly Journal of Economics , pp. 47-57
    • DeCanio, S.1
  • 14
    • 0040606690 scopus 로고
    • Price expectations of business firms: Bias in the short and long run
    • March
    • De Leeuw, Frank, and Michael J. McKelvey. "Price Expectations of Business Firms: Bias in the Short and Long Run." American Economic Review, March 1984, 99-109.
    • (1984) American Economic Review , pp. 99-109
    • De Leeuw, F.1    McKelvey, M.J.2
  • 15
    • 84977428948 scopus 로고
    • An equilibrium politico-economic model
    • July
    • Ellis, Christopher J. "An Equilibrium Politico-Economic Model." Economic Inquiry, July 1989, 521-8.
    • (1989) Economic Inquiry , pp. 521-528
    • Ellis, C.J.1
  • 16
    • 38248999092 scopus 로고
    • Credibility and political business cycles
    • Winter
    • Ellis, Christopher J., and Mark A. Thoma. "Credibility and Political Business Cycles." Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1993, 69-89.
    • (1993) Journal of Macroeconomics , pp. 69-89
    • Ellis, C.J.1    Thoma, M.A.2
  • 17
    • 84964166786 scopus 로고
    • The political business cycle and republican administrations: An empirical investigation
    • July
    • Findlay, David W. "The Political Business Cycle and Republican Administrations: An Empirical Investigation." Public Finance Quarterly, July 1990, 328-38.
    • (1990) Public Finance Quarterly , pp. 328-338
    • Findlay, D.W.1
  • 18
    • 84936216376 scopus 로고
    • Consensus and dissension among economists: An empirical inquiry
    • December
    • Frey, Bruno S., Werner W. Pommerehne, Fredrich Schneider, and Guy Gilbert. "Consensus and Dissension among Economists: An Empirical Inquiry." American Economic Review, December 1984, 986-94.
    • (1984) American Economic Review , pp. 986-994
    • Frey, B.S.1    Pommerehne, W.W.2    Schneider, F.3    Gilbert, G.4
  • 19
    • 0001785269 scopus 로고
    • Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of 'rational expectations' models
    • January
    • Friedman, Benjamin M. "Optimal Expectations and the Extreme Information Assumptions of 'Rational Expectations' Models." Journal of Monetary Economics, January 1979, 23-41.
    • (1979) Journal of Monetary Economics , pp. 23-41
    • Friedman, B.M.1
  • 20
    • 0000774097 scopus 로고
    • Models of inflation expectations formation: A comparison of household and economist forecasts
    • May
    • Gramlich, Edward. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, May 1983, 155-73.
    • (1983) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , pp. 155-173
    • Gramlich, E.1
  • 21
    • 0000704516 scopus 로고
    • Presidential elections and federal reserve policy: An empirical test
    • October
    • Grier, Kevin B. "Presidential Elections and Federal Reserve Policy: An Empirical Test." Southern Economic Journal, October 1987, 475-86.
    • (1987) Southern Economic Journal , pp. 475-486
    • Grier, K.B.1
  • 22
    • 0029526355 scopus 로고
    • The politics of free-trade agreement
    • September
    • Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman. "The Politics of Free-Trade Agreement," American Economic Review, September 1995, 667-90.
    • (1995) American Economic Review , pp. 667-690
    • Grossman, G.M.1    Helpman, E.2
  • 23
    • 84977376731 scopus 로고
    • Rational expectations and the limits of rationality: An analysis of heterogeneity
    • June
    • Haltiwanger, John, and Michael Waldman. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity." American Economic Review, June 1985, 326-40.
    • (1985) American Economic Review , pp. 326-340
    • Haltiwanger, J.1    Waldman, M.2
  • 24
    • 84977398627 scopus 로고
    • Rational expectations in the aggregate
    • October
    • _. "Rational Expectations in the Aggregate." Economic Inquiry, October 1989a, 619-36.
    • (1989) Economic Inquiry , pp. 619-636
  • 25
    • 0001432264 scopus 로고
    • Limited rationality and strategic complements: The implications for macroeconomics
    • August
    • _. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Complements: The Implications for Macroeconomics." Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 1989b, 463-83.
    • (1989) Quarterly Journal of Economics , pp. 463-483
  • 26
    • 84982429061 scopus 로고
    • Origin of predictable behavior: Further modeling and applications
    • May
    • Heiner, Ronald A. "Origin of Predictable Behavior: Further Modeling and Applications." American Economic Review, May 1985, 391-96.
    • (1985) American Economic Review , pp. 391-396
    • Heiner, R.A.1
  • 27
    • 0001370489 scopus 로고
    • Imperfect decisions and the law: On the evolution of legal precedent and rules
    • June
    • _. "Imperfect Decisions and the Law: On the Evolution of Legal Precedent and Rules." Journal of Legal Studies, June 1986, 227-61.
    • (1986) Journal of Legal Studies , pp. 227-261
  • 28
    • 0042108662 scopus 로고
    • The necessity of imperfect decisions
    • _. "The Necessity of Imperfect Decisions." Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 10(1), 1988, 29-55.
    • (1988) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization , vol.10 , Issue.1 , pp. 29-55
  • 29
    • 0242644944 scopus 로고
    • The origin of predictable dynamic behavior
    • _. "The Origin of Predictable Dynamic Behavior." Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 12(2), 1989, 233-57.
    • (1989) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization , vol.12 , Issue.2 , pp. 233-257
  • 30
    • 0011669136 scopus 로고
    • Is the political business cycle really dead?
    • July
    • Keil, Manfred W., "Is the Political Business Cycle Really Dead?" Southern Economic Journal, July 1988, 86-99.
    • (1988) Southern Economic Journal , pp. 86-99
    • Keil, M.W.1
  • 31
    • 0001049756 scopus 로고
    • Political cheating
    • March
    • Lott, John R., Jr. "Political Cheating." Public Choice, March 1987, 169-87.
    • (1987) Public Choice , pp. 169-187
    • Lott J.R., Jr.1
  • 32
    • 0004778263 scopus 로고
    • Time dependent information costs, price controls, and successive government intervention
    • Fall
    • Lott, John R., Jr., and Gertrud M. Fremling. "Time Dependent Information Costs, Price Controls, and Successive Government Intervention." Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Fall 1989, 293-306.
    • (1989) Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization , pp. 293-306
    • Lott J.R., Jr.1    Fremling, G.M.2
  • 33
    • 0001579082 scopus 로고
    • Tests of the rational expectations hypothesis
    • March
    • Lowell, Michael J. "Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis." American Economic Review, March 1986, 110-24.
    • (1986) American Economic Review , pp. 110-124
    • Lowell, M.J.1
  • 34
    • 0001498034 scopus 로고
    • The political business cycle: An empirical test
    • September
    • McCallum, B. T. "The Political Business Cycle: An Empirical Test." Southern Economic Journal, September 1978, 504-15.
    • (1978) Southern Economic Journal , pp. 504-515
    • McCallum, B.T.1
  • 35
    • 0039421292 scopus 로고
    • Reinterpreting the role of inflation in politico-economic models
    • Michaels, Robert J. "Reinterpreting the Role of Inflation in Politico-Economic Models." Public Choice, 1986, 113-24.
    • (1986) Public Choice , pp. 113-124
    • Michaels, R.J.1
  • 36
    • 0040013644 scopus 로고
    • Are market forecasts rational?
    • June
    • Mishkin, Frederic S. "Are Market Forecasts Rational?" American Economic Review, June 1981, 295-306.
    • (1981) American Economic Review , pp. 295-306
    • Mishkin, F.S.1
  • 37
    • 0000058335 scopus 로고
    • The political business cycle
    • April
    • Nordhaus, William D. "The Political Business Cycle." Review of Economic Studies, April 1975, 169-90.
    • (1975) Review of Economic Studies , pp. 169-190
    • Nordhaus, W.D.1
  • 38
    • 0002082121 scopus 로고
    • Alternative approaches to the political business cycle
    • _. "Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2, 1989, 1-49.
    • (1989) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , Issue.2 , pp. 1-49
  • 39
    • 84936021339 scopus 로고
    • How efficient is the voting market?
    • April
    • Peltzman, Sam. "How Efficient Is the Voting Market?" Journal of Law and Economics, April 1990, 27-63.
    • (1990) Journal of Law and Economics , pp. 27-63
    • Peltzman, S.1
  • 40
    • 84914623489 scopus 로고
    • Monetary control and the political business cycle/avoidable uncertainty and the effects of monetary policy: Why even experts can't forecast
    • Winter
    • Poole, William, and David I. Meiselman. "Monetary Control and the Political Business Cycle/Avoidable Uncertainty and the Effects of Monetary Policy: Why Even Experts Can't Forecast." Cato Journal, Winter 1986, 685-707.
    • (1986) Cato Journal , pp. 685-707
    • Poole, W.1    Meiselman, D.I.2
  • 41
    • 0011596109 scopus 로고
    • Unanticipated money and the political business cycle
    • November
    • Richards, Daniel J. "Unanticipated Money and the Political Business Cycle." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, November 1986, 447-57.
    • (1986) Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking , pp. 447-457
    • Richards, D.J.1
  • 43
    • 0000629644 scopus 로고
    • Theories of decision-making in economics and behavioral science
    • June
    • Simon, Herbert G. "Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behavioral Science." American Economic Review, June 1959, 253-83.
    • (1959) American Economic Review , pp. 253-283
    • Simon, H.G.1
  • 44
    • 84986799029 scopus 로고
    • Rational decision making in business organizations
    • September
    • _. "Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations." American Economic Review, September 1979, 493-513.
    • (1979) American Economic Review , pp. 493-513
  • 45
    • 0012895336 scopus 로고
    • Monetary policy during a transition to rational expectations
    • October
    • Taylor, John B. "Monetary Policy during a Transition to Rational Expectations." Journal of Political Economy, October 1975, 1009-21.
    • (1975) Journal of Political Economy , pp. 1009-1021
    • Taylor, J.B.1
  • 46


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.