메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 14, Issue 2, 1996, Pages 139-151

Periodic autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity

Author keywords

ARCH; Exchange rates; P GARCH; Periodic structures; Seasonality; Volatility clustering

Indexed keywords


EID: 0030530241     PISSN: 07350015     EISSN: 15372707     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/07350015.1996.10524640     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (233)

References (69)
  • 1
    • 0000501656 scopus 로고
    • Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle
    • B. N. Petrov and F. Csaki, Budapest: Akademiai Kiado
    • Akaike, H. (1973), “Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle,” in Second International Symposium on Information Theory, eds. B. N. Petrov and F. Csaki, Budapest: Akademiai Kiado, pp. 267-281.
    • (1973) Second International Symposium on Information Theory , pp. 267-281
    • Akaike, H.1
  • 2
    • 0009232225 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility
    • Andersen, T. G. (in press), “Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility,” Journal of Finance, 51.
    • Journal of Finance , pp. 51
    • Andersen, T.G.1
  • 3
    • 0039892275 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intraday Seasonality and Volatility Persistence in Financial Markets
    • Andersen, T. G., and Bollerslev, T. (in press), “Intraday Seasonality and Volatility Persistence in Financial Markets,” Journal of Empirical Finance, 1996.
    • (1996) Journal of Empirical Finance
    • Andersen, T.G.1    Bollerslev, T.2
  • 4
    • 84952533519 scopus 로고
    • The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional Variance Tale
    • Baillie, R. T., and Bollerslev, T. (1989), “The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional Variance Tale,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 7, 297-305.
    • (1989) Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , vol.7 , pp. 297-305
    • Baillie, R.T.1    Bollerslev, T.2
  • 5
    • 84959819944 scopus 로고
    • Intra Day and Inter Market Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates
    • Baillie, R. T., and Bollerslev, T. (1991), “Intra Day and Inter Market Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates,” Review of Economic Studies, 58, 565-585.
    • (1991) Review of Economic Studies , vol.58 , pp. 565-585
    • Baillie, R.T.1    Bollerslev, T.2
  • 6
    • 0040485278 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fractional Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
    • Baillie, R. T., Bollerslev, T., and Mikkelsen, H. O. (in press), “Fractional Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity,” Journal of Econometrics, 1996.
    • (1996) Journal of Econometrics
    • Baillie, R.T.1    Bollerslev, T.2    Mikkelsen, H.O.3
  • 7
    • 84936947492 scopus 로고
    • Issues Involved With the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series
    • Bell, W. R., and Hillmer, S. (1984), “Issues Involved With the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2, 526-534.
    • (1984) Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , vol.2 , pp. 526-534
    • Bell, W.R.1    Hillmer, S.2
  • 8
    • 84993867944 scopus 로고
    • ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing
    • Bera, A. K., and Higgins, M. L. (1993), “ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing,” Journal of Economic Surveys, 1, 305-366.
    • (1993) Journal of Economic Surveys , vol.1 , pp. 305-366
    • Bera, A.K.1    Higgins, M.L.2
  • 9
    • 42449156579 scopus 로고
    • Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
    • Bollerslev, T. (1986), “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity,” Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327.
    • (1986) Journal of Econometrics , vol.31 , pp. 307-327
    • Bollerslev, T.1
  • 10
    • 34848900983 scopus 로고
    • ARCH Modelling in Finance: A Review of Theory and Empirical Evidence
    • Bollerslev, T., Chou, R. Y., and Kroner, K. F. (1992), “ARCH Modelling in Finance: A Review of Theory and Empirical Evidence,” Journal of Econometrics, 52, 5-59.
    • (1992) Journal of Econometrics , vol.52 , pp. 5-59
    • Bollerslev, T.1    Chou, R.Y.2    Kroner, K.F.3
  • 11
    • 84993842144 scopus 로고
    • Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market
    • Bollerslev, T., and Domowitz, I. (1993), “Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market,” Journal of Finance, 48, 1421-1443.
    • (1993) Journal of Finance , vol.48 , pp. 1421-1443
    • Bollerslev, T.1    Domowitz, I.2
  • 12
    • 0000118737 scopus 로고
    • Common Persistence in Conditional Variance
    • Bollerslev, T., and Engle, R. F. (1993), “Common Persistence in Conditional Variance,” Econometrica, 61, 166-187.
    • (1993) Econometrica , vol.61 , pp. 166-187
    • Bollerslev, T.1    Engle, R.F.2
  • 13
    • 70350121603 scopus 로고
    • ARCH Models
    • R. F. Engle and D. McFadden, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science/North-Holland
    • Bollerslev, T., Engle, R. F., and Nelson, D. B. (1994), “ARCH Models,” in Handbook of Econometrics (Vol. 4), eds. R. F. Engle and D. McFadden, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science/North-Holland, pp. 2959-3038.
    • (1994) Handbook of Econometrics , vol.4 , pp. 2959-3038
    • Bollerslev, T.1    Engle, R.F.2    Nelson, D.B.3
  • 14
    • 0003063363 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Financial Market Efficiency Tests
    • M. H. Pesaran and M. Wickens, Oxford, U.K.: Basil Blackwell
    • Bollerslev, T., and Hodrick, R. J. (in press), “Financial Market Efficiency Tests,” in Handbook of Applied Econometrics, eds. M. H. Pesaran and M. Wickens, Oxford, U.K.: Basil Blackwell.
    • Handbook of Applied Econometrics
    • Bollerslev, T.1    Hodrick, R.J.2
  • 15
    • 0000658462 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling and Pricing Long-Memory in Stock Market Volatility
    • Bollerslev, T., and Mikkelsen, H. O. (in press), “Modeling and Pricing Long-Memory in Stock Market Volatility,” Journal of Econometrics, 1996.
    • (1996) Journal of Econometrics
    • Bollerslev, T.1    Mikkelsen, H.O.2
  • 16
    • 70349218800 scopus 로고
    • Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Dynamic Models With Time Varying Covariances
    • Bollerslev, T., and Wooldridge, J. M. (1992), “Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Dynamic Models With Time Varying Covariances,” Econometric Reviews, 11, 143-172.
    • (1992) Econometric Reviews , vol.11 , pp. 143-172
    • Bollerslev, T.1    Wooldridge, J.M.2
  • 17
    • 0000183335 scopus 로고
    • Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Market
    • Chan, K., Chan, K. C., and Karolyi, G. A. (1991), “Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Market,” Review of Financial Studies, 4, 657-684.
    • (1991) Review of Financial Studies , vol.4 , pp. 657-684
    • Chan, K.1    Chan, K.C.2    Karolyi, G.A.3
  • 18
    • 0000346734 scopus 로고
    • A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model With Finite Variance for Speculative Prices
    • Clark, P. (1973), “A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model With Finite Variance for Speculative Prices,” Econometrica, 41, 135-156.
    • (1973) Econometrica , vol.41 , pp. 135-156
    • Clark, P.1
  • 22
    • 0001413618 scopus 로고
    • Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes
    • Drost, F. C., and Nijman, T. E. (1993), “Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes,” Econometrica, 61, 909-928.
    • (1993) Econometrica , vol.61 , pp. 909-928
    • Drost, F.C.1    Nijman, T.E.2
  • 23
    • 0001867163 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Closing the GARCH Gap: Continuous Time GARCH Modelling
    • Drost, F. C., and Werker, B. J. M. (in press), “Closing the GARCH Gap: Continuous Time GARCH Modelling,” Journal of Econometrics, 1996.
    • (1996) Journal of Econometrics
    • Drost, F.C.1    Werker, B.2
  • 24
    • 0000051984 scopus 로고
    • Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity With Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation
    • Engle, R. F. (1982), “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity With Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation,” Econometrica, 50, 987-1008.
    • (1982) Econometrica , vol.50 , pp. 987-1008
    • Engle, R.F.1
  • 25
    • 84963146757 scopus 로고
    • Modelling the Persistence of Conditional Variances
    • Engle, R. F., and Bollerslev, T. (1986), “Modelling the Persistence of Conditional Variances,” Econometric Reviews, 5, 1-50, 81-87.
    • (1986) Econometric Reviews , vol.5 , pp. 1-50
    • Engle, R.F.1    Bollerslev, T.2
  • 26
    • 0001659575 scopus 로고
    • Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market
    • Engle, R. F., Ito, T., and Lin, W.-L. (1990), “Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market,” Econometrica, 58, 525-542.
    • (1990) Econometrica , vol.58 , pp. 525-542
    • Engle, R.F.1    Ito, T.2    Lin, W.-L.3
  • 27
    • 84993924525 scopus 로고
    • Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility
    • Engle, R. F., and Ng, V. (1993), “Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility,” Journal of Finance, 48, 1749-1778.
    • (1993) Journal of Finance , vol.48 , pp. 1749-1778
    • Engle, R.F.1    Ng, V.2
  • 28
  • 29
    • 0039084784 scopus 로고
    • Stock Return Variances: The Arrival of Information and the Reaction of Traders
    • French, K. R., and Roll, R. (1986), “Stock Return Variances: The Arrival of Information and the Reaction of Traders,” Journal of Financial Economics, 17, 5-26.
    • (1986) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.17 , pp. 5-26
    • French, K.R.1    Roll, R.2
  • 31
    • 0001498824 scopus 로고
    • On the Economics and Econometrics of Seasonality
    • C. A. Sims, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press
    • Ghysels, E. (1994), “On the Economics and Econometrics of Seasonality,” in Advances in Econometrics, Sixth World Congress, ed. C. A. Sims, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, pp. 257-316.
    • (1994) Advances in Econometrics, Sixth World Congress , pp. 257-316
    • Ghysels, E.1
  • 35
    • 0000623599 scopus 로고
    • Periodically Correlated Random Sequences
    • Gladyshev, E. G. (1961), “Periodically Correlated Random Sequences,” Soviet Mathematics, 2, 385-388.
    • (1961) Soviet Mathematics , vol.2 , pp. 385-388
    • Gladyshev, E.G.1
  • 36
    • 84993601065 scopus 로고
    • On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks
    • Glosten, L. R., Jagannathan, R., and Runkle, D. E. (1993), “On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,” Journal of Finance, 48, 1779-1801.
    • (1993) Journal of Finance , vol.48 , pp. 1779-1801
    • Glosten, L.R.1    Jagannathan, R.2    Runkle, D.E.3
  • 38
    • 0001698432 scopus 로고
    • Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility Across International Stock Markets
    • Hamao, Y., Masulis, R. W., and Ng, V. (1990), “Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility Across International Stock Markets,” Review of Financial Studies, 3, 281-307.
    • (1990) Review of Financial Studies , vol.3 , pp. 281-307
    • Hamao, Y.1    Masulis, R.W.2    Ng, V.3
  • 40
    • 0000161684 scopus 로고
    • Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market
    • Harvey, C. R., and Huang, R. D. (1991), “Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market,” Review of Financial Studies, 4, 543-569.
    • (1991) Review of Financial Studies , vol.4 , pp. 543-569
    • Harvey, C.R.1    Huang, R.D.2
  • 41
    • 84952520952 scopus 로고
    • Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates
    • Hsieh, D. A. (1989), “Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1, 307-317.
    • (1989) Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , vol.1 , pp. 307-317
    • Hsieh, D.A.1
  • 43
    • 0001725267 scopus 로고
    • The Sources of GARCH: Empirical Evidence From an Intraday Returns Model Incorporating Systematic and Unique Risks
    • Laux, P., and Ng, L. K. (1993), “The Sources of GARCH: Empirical Evidence From an Intraday Returns Model Incorporating Systematic and Unique Risks,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 12, 543-560.
    • (1993) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.12 , pp. 543-560
    • Laux, P.1    Ng, L.K.2
  • 44
    • 84974239969 scopus 로고
    • Asymptotic Theory for the GARCH(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator
    • Lee, S. W., and Hansen, B. E. (1994), “Asymptotic Theory for the GARCH(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator,” Econometric Theory, 10, 29-52.
    • (1994) Econometric Theory , vol.10 , pp. 29-52
    • Lee, S.W.1    Hansen, B.E.2
  • 45
    • 0017846358 scopus 로고
    • On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models
    • Ljung, G. M., and Box, G. E. P. (1978), “On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models,” Biometrika, 65, 297-303.
    • (1978) Biometrika , vol.65 , pp. 297-303
    • Ljung, G.M.1    Box, G.E.P.2
  • 46
    • 84986358720 scopus 로고
    • Intra-day Futures Price Volatility: Information Effects and Variance Persistence
    • Locke, P. R., and Sayers, C. L. (1993), “Intra-day Futures Price Volatility: Information Effects and Variance Persistence,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8, 15-30.
    • (1993) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.8 , pp. 15-30
    • Locke, P.R.1    Sayers, C.L.2
  • 48
    • 0030364024 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH (1,1) and Covariance Stationary IGARCH (1,1) Models
    • Lumsdaine, R. L. (in press), “Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH (1,1) and Covariance Stationary IGARCH (1,1) Models,” Econometrica, 1996.
    • (1996) Econometrica
    • Lumsdaine, R.L.1
  • 49
    • 21844511185 scopus 로고
    • Finite Sample Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in GARCH(1,1) and IGARCH(1,1) Models: A Monte Carlo Investigation
    • Lumsdaine, R. L. (1995), “Finite Sample Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in GARCH(1,1) and IGARCH(1,1) Models: A Monte Carlo Investigation,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 13, 1-10.
    • (1995) Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , vol.13 , pp. 1-10
    • Lumsdaine, R.L.1
  • 50
    • 84986376840 scopus 로고
    • Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutschemark Futures With Models Specifying the Form of Het-eroskedasticity
    • McCurdy, T., and Morgan, I. (1988), “Testing the Martingale Hypothesis in Deutschemark Futures With Models Specifying the Form of Het-eroskedasticity,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 3, 187-202.
    • (1988) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.3 , pp. 187-202
    • McCurdy, T.1    Morgan, I.2
  • 51
    • 26544444702 scopus 로고
    • Statistical Study of Foreign Exchange Rates, Empirical Evidence of a Price Change Scaling Law, and Intraday Analysis
    • Müller, U. A., Dacorogna, M. M., Olsen, R. B., Pictet, O. V., Schwarz, M., and Morgenegg, C. (1990), “Statistical Study of Foreign Exchange Rates, Empirical Evidence of a Price Change Scaling Law, and Intraday Analysis,” Journal of Banking and Finance, 14, 1189-1208.
    • (1990) Journal of Banking and Finance , vol.14 , pp. 1189-1208
    • Müller, U.A.1    Dacorogna, M.M.2    Olsen, R.B.3    Pictet, O.V.4    Schwarz, M.5    Morgenegg, C.6
  • 52
    • 0842316847 scopus 로고
    • ARCH Models as Diffusion Approximations
    • Nelson, D. B. (1990), “ARCH Models as Diffusion Approximations,” Journal of Econometrics, 45, 7-38.
    • (1990) Journal of Econometrics , vol.45 , pp. 7-38
    • Nelson, D.B.1
  • 53
    • 0000641348 scopus 로고
    • Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach
    • Nelson, D. B. (1991), “Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach,” Econometrica, 59, 347-370.
    • (1991) Econometrica , vol.59 , pp. 347-370
    • Nelson, D.B.1
  • 54
  • 56
    • 0003047980 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Marginalization and Contemporaneous Aggregation in Multivariate GARCH Processes
    • Nijman, T., and Sentana, E. (in press), “Marginalization and Contemporaneous Aggregation in Multivariate GARCH Processes,” Journal of Econometrics, 1996.
    • (1996) Journal of Econometrics
    • Nijman, T.1    Sentana, E.2
  • 57
    • 84986409273 scopus 로고
    • Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life-Cycle Model of Consumption
    • Osborn, D. R. (1988), “Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life-Cycle Model of Consumption,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 3, 255-266.
    • (1988) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.3 , pp. 255-266
    • Osborn, D.R.1
  • 58
    • 44949279807 scopus 로고
    • The Implications of Periodically Varying Coefficients for Seasonal Time Series Processes
    • Osborn, D. R. (1991), “The Implications of Periodically Varying Coefficients for Seasonal Time Series Processes,” Journal of Econometrics, 48, 373-384.
    • (1991) Journal of Econometrics , vol.48 , pp. 373-384
    • Osborn, D.R.1
  • 59
    • 84952507417 scopus 로고
    • The Performance of Periodic Autoregressive Models in Forecasting Seasonal U.K. Consumption
    • Osborn, D. R., and Smith, J. P. (1989), “The Performance of Periodic Autoregressive Models in Forecasting Seasonal U.K. Consumption,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1, 117-127.
    • (1989) Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , vol.1 , pp. 117-127
    • Osborn, D.R.1    Smith, J.P.2
  • 60
    • 45149141217 scopus 로고
    • Alternative Models for Conditional Stock Volatility
    • Pagan, A. R., and Schwert, G. W. (1990), “Alternative Models for Conditional Stock Volatility,” Journal of Econometrics, 45, 267-290.
    • (1990) Journal of Econometrics , vol.45 , pp. 267-290
    • Pagan, A.R.1    Schwert, G.W.2
  • 61
    • 0000120766 scopus 로고
    • Estimating the Dimension of a Model
    • Schwarz, G. (1978), “Estimating the Dimension of a Model,” The Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464.
    • (1978) The Annals of Statistics , vol.6 , pp. 461-464
    • Schwarz, G.1
  • 62
    • 0001735652 scopus 로고
    • Indexes of U.S. Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987
    • Schwert, G. W. (1990), “Indexes of U.S. Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987,” Journal of Business, 63, 399-426.
    • (1990) Journal of Business , vol.63 , pp. 399-426
    • Schwert, G.W.1
  • 63
    • 0000658999 scopus 로고
    • The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets
    • Tauchen, G. E., and Pitts, M. (1983), “The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets,” Econometrica, 51, 485-505.
    • (1983) Econometrica , vol.51 , pp. 485-505
    • Tauchen, G.E.1    Pitts, M.2
  • 64
    • 84986754945 scopus 로고
    • Modelling Stochastic Volatility
    • Taylor, S. (1994), “Modelling Stochastic Volatility,” Mathematical Finance, 4, 183-204.
    • (1994) Mathematical Finance , vol.4 , pp. 183-204
    • Taylor, S.1
  • 65
    • 77956888888 scopus 로고
    • Hidden Periodic Autoregressive Moving Average Models in Time Series Data
    • Tiao, G. C., and Grupe, M. R. (1980), “Hidden Periodic Autoregressive Moving Average Models in Time Series Data,” Biometrika, 67, 365-373.
    • (1980) Biometrika , vol.67 , pp. 365-373
    • Tiao, G.C.1    Grupe, M.R.2
  • 66
    • 24944462048 scopus 로고
    • Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing
    • Weiss, A. A. (1986), “Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing,” Econometric Theory, 2, 107-131.
    • (1986) Econometric Theory , vol.2 , pp. 107-131
    • Weiss, A.A.1
  • 67
    • 0000650195 scopus 로고
    • The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility
    • West, K. D., and Cho, D. (1995), “The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility,” Journal of Econometrics, 69, 367-391.
    • (1995) Journal of Econometrics , vol.69 , pp. 367-391
    • West, K.D.1    Cho, D.2
  • 68
    • 38249000331 scopus 로고
    • A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility
    • West, K. D., Edison, H. J., and Cho, D. (1993), “A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility,” Journal of International Economics, 35, 23-45.
    • (1993) Journal of International Economics , vol.35 , pp. 23-45
    • West, K.D.1    Edison, H.J.2    Cho, D.3
  • 69
    • 84944836686 scopus 로고
    • An Investigation of Transaction Data for NYSE Stocks
    • Wood, R., Mclnish, T., and Ord, J. K. (1985), “An Investigation of Transaction Data for NYSE Stocks,” Journal of Finance, 40, 723-739.
    • (1985) Journal of Finance , vol.40 , pp. 723-739
    • Wood, R.1    McLnish, T.2    Ord, J.K.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.